These two players had played each other a week ago.

It wasn’t that close.  Novak Djokovic beat Gael Monfils in the quarterfinals of Montreal 6-2, 6-1.  Monfils was playing his usual style, being very defensive running around, and Djokovic played the first match where he felt pretty confident and made short work of a player he had never lost to.

This time around, Monfils said he wanted to play a bit more aggressive.  Djokovic had still not played his best tennis to reach this point.  Monfils went on the attack, coming to net, and and pressuring Djokovic.  In addition, Monfils was serving big and making it hard to break him.  Monfils got an early break and held it for the first set, 6-3.

Djokovic finally got a break in the second set, but was eventually broken back before he got another break to take the second set.  By the end, Djokovic was starting to play better.  In the first set, he seemeed overwhelmed by Monfils tactics and power and was struggling to stay in rallies.

With the match knotted at a set a piece, the match suddenly tr weird.  Monfils started to have problems catching his breath.  He breathed heavily and wasn’t running for balls.  He was immediately broken, and then was slow to start the second game.  This only made Djokovic more eager, trying to close out the match.  By the third game, Monfils was starting to feel a little better, but due to his fatigue, he had to resort to serving and volleying, something Monfils rarely does, and surprisingly, he was doing a halfway decent job of this.

Monfils, like many top players, is stubborn.  Even after much training with his previous coach Roger Rashid which included, apparently, lots of practice volleying, Monfils would, time and again, hang at the baseline, using his speed to surprise opponents.  Monfils was reluctant to play more aggressively despite having developed the skills to volley.

This third game went quite a while, but Monfils managed the hold.  At this point, Monfils was able to rest during the break and he was back to normal.  The only problem?  Djokovic was now full of confidence, hitting his backhand down-the-line and making great shots.  Djokovic held his serves fairly easily.

Finally, on Monfils last serve, Djokovic was able to get his hooks into the game and break to take the third set, 6-3.

Up until the start of the third set, there was serious danger that the top three seeds would lose.  This has happened before.  Two years ago in Montreal, Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic all lost on the same day (to Tsonga, del Potro, and Roddick, respectively) with Murray the only top player that made it through (and won the title).

The semifinals start with Murray taking on Fish in the first match.  Fish has a 4-3 lead, but the lead was mostly from 2010 when Fish beat Murray three times.  One of the three times was in Miami, when Murray was slumping in 2010.  Arguably Queen’s and Cincinnati, the two other times they met last year, also found Murray at less than his best.  In particular, Murray had won Toronto and seemed to struggle in the heat of Cincy last year.  Despite taking a week off, Murray claimed not to feel that fresh at the US Open.

The question is whether Murray wants this title so close to the US Open.  Certainly Fish has the capacity to beat Murray.  My gut feeling is that Murray can win this match, but Fish continues to surprise me, beating players that he used to struggle against.  Fish has already dropped out of Winston-Salem, the ATP 250 event that is having its inaugural next week, the week before the US Open so he can prep for the US Open in his best chance to go deep that he’s ever had.

I think Fish wants this more than Murray.  Murray has long said that winning Masters 1000, which he was doing at a decent clip, was no longer his focus.  This lead to a dismal 2010 where he won few Masters 1000 (Toronto and Shanghai) but didn’t really contend for Slams.  This year, Murray is trying to peak for the US Open.

There is some incentive for both to win.  For Fish, he wants to win his first Masters 1000.  He’s more likely to do this than winning the US Open.  At 29, Fish might have a few more good tennis years ahead of him.  After all, his ranking was so low at one point, and he had suffered from injuries, that he doesn’t have the wear and tear of a player like Rafa.

For Murray, one reason to push here is to get a chance to play Djokovic and perhaps upset him and get him to think about the US Open.  The points he lost in Canada wouldn’t hurt either.   Murray hasn’t been pushed to a third set yet, so he hasn’t gotten too tired, plus a good win against a top player would help his confidence.

In the other semis, Novak Djokovic plays Tomas Berdych.  This could be a little tricky.  Berdych has only beaten Djokovic once in 7 meetings, namely, the Wimbledon semis last year.  Berdych had hit a hot streak from the French Open through Wimbledon.  Berdych’s play has come down since then, and he’s playing solid, but not outstanding tennis.  However, suddenly at Cincy, Berdych is playing good tennis again.  Berdych is a streaky player.

Djokovic has a few things going for him.  He’s obviously on a huge win streak.  He ended the Monfils match playing great tennis, partly buoyed by Monfils not playing nearly so well in the third set.

And unlike Federer, who kept the points very short, thus not allowing Berdych to make his own errors, Djokovic is likely to have Berdych play longer points and hope to make errors.  The key will be for Djokovic to return well.

The likelihood is Murray will play Djokovic in the finals, but I believe Murray will have the tougher match.