After some complaints that Federer and Nadal had been on opposite halves of the draws in Slams (all four Slams last year and often 3 of 4 Slams in previous years) despite the changing seedings of Federer and Nadal, this year, the Australian Open put Federer and Nadal in the same half.
Let’s work section by section. Each section contains 16 players for a total of 8 sections. The winner of a section is in the quarterfinals.
Section 1
Novak Djokovic is the top seed and thus he is automatically in Section 1. This section doesn’t appear too bad. Djokovic’s main challenge appears to be in the fourth round where he might meet Roddick, Hewitt, or Raonic all in the bottom half of Section 1. Only one can make the fourth round. The one potential bother might be Radek Stepanek, but Djokovic tends to do well against serve-volley types.
Section 2
The top seed in this section is fifth seed, David Ferrer. Technically, this makes Djokovic’s quarter the “toughest”, but he might prefer Ferrer over Berdych or Tsonga. Also in this section is fellow Serb, Janko Tipsarevic, the ninth seed. Ferrer looks good until the fourth round. Tipsarevic might have to play Gasquet or Youzhny, both of whom did reasonably well in the start of January. Tipsarevic did reach the finals of Chennai so he appears to be in pretty good form.
Section 3
Andy Murray is the fourth seed. He starts off against Ryan Harrison. Harrison has lost somewhat early in the tournaments he has played this year indicating he’s not at his best form. Harrison has a big serve, but he’s probably not ready to beat Murray. In the next round is possibly Xavier Malisse. Malisse’s ranking recently dropped as he lost a lot of points from being a finalist in Chennai. Still, he has been winning a round or two in the tournaments he’s played. The third round could be Llodra, Gulbis, or Bogomolov. Gulbis is the most dangerous, and yet, also the most inconsistent. He has struggled to move past the first round in many Slams, so the question is whether he can manage that feat or not.
Gael Monfils is the 14th seed. He was a recently finalist in Doha losing to Tsonga. He lost in a three set exhibition against Bernard Tomic who may be a player to watch in this year’s Australian Open. Veterans Juan Carlos Ferrero is in Monfils’s section of the draw.
Section 4
Several Frenchmen are in this section highlighted by sixth seed, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga is probably the most dangerous floater in the tournament outside the top 4 players. In his section are Gilles Simon, Julien Benneteau, and Stephane Robert, who are all in the top half (Tsonga is in the bottom half of Section 4) which means only one can play Tsonga. Tsonga starts off against Istomin who has seen higher ranked days. Granollers is another seed in Tsonga’s section. Still, Tsonga should be favored out of this section.
Section 5
This is the bottom half of the draw. Mardy Fish is the top seed in this section at number 8. The other top seed is Juan Martin del Potro who is the 11th seed. Fish has the tougher road to the fourth round. Immediately, he plays Gilles Muller, a tough lefty. Kohlschreiber and Falla are also in his section. del Potro starts with Frenchman Adrian Mannarino who can be tough, but if he gets past that, there are qualifiers and such in his section. Tricky Florian Mayer is also in del Potro’s section.
Tough call here. del Potro recently lost to Baghdatis but has also declared himself in pretty good shape. Tough draw for Fish.
Section 6
This is Roger Federer’s section. He’s got a tricky draw. In the top half of this section is Dolgopolov and the trending Tomic. Tomic has a tough opening round against Verdasco. Federer’s should be good until the fourth round. Again, lots of qualifiers in Federer’s section. Melzer and Karlovic are in Federer’s section. Melzer has been trending downward and has the misfortune of playing Karlovic in the opening round.
Tomic opens up against Sam Querrey who hasn’t played that well since returning back to tour a few weeks ago.
Section 7
The top seed in this section is Tomas Berdych. He played quite well at the Hopman Cup. His main concern is Kevin Anderson in the third round. In the bottom half is Almagro. Dimitrov and Wawrinka are in that section as well. Berdych should be good through this section if he’s on top of his game. Lots of qualifiers in Berdych’s section.
Section 8
Nadal is the second seed and in the bottom half of this section. Isner is the other top seed in this section, seeded 16th. There’s Nalbandian Davydenko, Lopez, Haas, and Young in this section. It looks pretty smooth for Nadal.
Thoughts
I’d say Murray appears to have the toughest draw as he could meet Tsonga in the quarters. Most of the top seeds appear to avoid really tricky opening rounds. I’d keep an eye out on Tomic who has been doing pretty well leading up to the Australian. Raonic is another guy I’d keep an eye out for. There’s likely to be a few surprises by folks that haven’t done well in January, but are ready to roll.