It’s the third Slam in a row that world number 1, Novak Djokovic, will face world number 2, Rafael Nadal.

When the curtains closed on 2011, the big questions were “Is Novak healthy” and “Is Rafa mentally ready?”.  Murray knew the answers to these questions.  He was asked what he thought of his competition prior to the Australian Open hearing Federer’s back was injured or Nadal lost in Abu Dhabi and Doha.  He said not to believe it.  These players may not look like they are ready to go even two weeks before a Slam, but they always show up ready to play a Slam.  Even Rafa’s peculiar knee injury happened before his first match, not on the first day, and he recovered from it just fine.  And Djokovic’s shoulder or his back?  Apparently no big deal.

Going into the semifinals, Djokovic had bent over due to perhaps a hamstring pull.  He was breathing heavy.  Ivan Lendl, Murray’s new coach, said don’t you believe it.  He’s clutching, he’s gasping, but he’s running, and that’s the key.  Don’t let Djokovic’s problems worry you.  He runs, so he’s fine.  Martina commented throughout the third set of the Djokovic-Murray encounter that Djokovic might not finish the match.  By the fifth set, she changed her tune and called the Djoker a “drama king”.

Most pundits would put the clear advantage to Nadal.  He had an extra day’s rest.  Djokovic had to play nearly five hours to win.  And yet, the last time they did this, in the 2009 Australian Open final, it was Federer, the fresher of the two, that collapsed due to not physical fatigue, but mental fatigue and Rafa won in five sets.  To be fair, Federer tends to play quick matches, but still, a tough five setter against Verdasco is a tough five setter.  Rafa said that it was no comparison between that match and his four set win over Federer.

The big question is still: is Djokovic fine?  He’s survived dire situations like this before, including the last marathon match he had against Murray (in the Rome 2011 final) and against Federer (a five set win in the 2011 US Open semi) and came back to handle Rafa.  The one difference, if anything, is Rafa’s commitment during the off-season to beating Djokovic.

It’s hard to tell what Rafa has been up to.  He’s playing solid tennis, that’s for sure.  But so is Djokovic.  All of a sudden, Djokovic is popping 110 mph second serves.  Where did that come from?

With not much to go on, I have to say that Djokovic has the edge.  At the very least, he has the six consecutive matches against Nadal.  Perhaps no such dominance has come since, oh, maybe Sampras over Agassi.  Ivan Lendl, ranked lower than McEnroe, once beat him seven times in a row.  McEnroe got scared playing Lendl.  A few good passes, and Lendl was trying to beat Lendl from the backcourt, a battle which he frequently placed second.  McEnroe finally went back to his instinct, buoyed by Grand Slam champ, Don Budge, and charged at net, no matter how many times he missed, and he began a dominance over Lendl once again.

Except, Djokovic hasn’t really forced Nadal to do much differently than before.  It’s not like you can scare Nadal to play serve and volley.  It’s not even entirely clear what Nadal did wrong.  Nadal can only follow the advice he gave Andy Murray.  Play more aggressively.  The question is whether that strategy will yield good results.  One reason Rafa does play defense is because it works.  He plays aggressive, but not as risky and only goes for big shots if he’s pressed.

As Djokovic said in the post-match interview, it’s going to be a battle.  Djokovic and Nadal rarely play short matches.  Expect long rallies.

Given a strong feeling either way, I have to go with the guy whose on the win streak, and that’s Novak Djokovic.