As usual, Federer looked sharp out of the gate, but Nadal again caught up before Federer could close out the set and feel good about it.  Federer took a 3-0 lead and looked sharp, hardly missing any serves, but as soon as Nadal began holding serve, Federer’s sharp play started showing edges.  Shots that were landing in were falling.  Shots that Nadal wasn’t reaching were being reached.  Serves that couldn’t miss began to miss.

It’s so hard to play Nadal when you must hit great shot after great shot and he is content moving the ball around and waiting for his opportunities.  Nadal’s defense has won him a lot of matches against Federer. As much as Federer has improved his backhand, it’s still not the weapon his forehand is, and Nadal still gets many of these shots back.

Despite the break back game, Federer was able to hold serve and push the match into a tiebreak. In the tiebreak, get a one point minibreak and ride that to the set win.  That first set win was more critical to Federer than Nadal who often plays better as the match goes longer.

Indeed, Federer looked encouraged by the first set win.  In the second set, Federer started off with an immediate break, but was immediately broken back, and then lost serve twice more.  The third set had Federer breaking, but Nadal breaking back.  This set also went to tiebreak where Nadal took a 6-1 lead before Federer came back to 6-5 until Nadal finally won one more point to take the third set.

In the fourth set, Nadal again secured a break.  While serving for it 5-4, Nadal got down break point twice.  In one break point, Federer appeared to approach on an excellent shot to get the break, but Nadal tossed the lob up which hit deep near the baseline.  Federer then hit a slice which landed wide, and eventually on his last match point, Roger took an aggressive forehand crosscourt that landed a touch deep.

Federer seemed a bit forlorn after the match ended.  After playing so well to reach the semifinals and having his chances to break open each of the sets, Federer has to feel frustrated that as well as he hit, he can’t string just enough points together.  In the end, Federer seems to win his matches by winning a few key points and weathering the storm (the occasionally lop-sided win aside), but in his losses, he just can’t get over the hump.  Nadal always has the answers.  Federer can’t get enough returns in play, or when he plays aggressive, he can’t hit it just a fraction faster, or Nadal doesn’t miss it just a few inches longer.  That’s all Roger needs, and in the end, he never gets it.

And so Nadal goes to the final feeling good about his chances.  If Djokovic truly is hurt, then Nadal will have an advantage.  He’ll still have the edge over Andy Murray who he met in three Slams last year and won all three encounters.  If Djokovic is healthy and wins, then maybe he has a long final ahead of him.  The only plus is he gets one additional day of rest which Djokovic won’t have (who gets one day while Rafa would get two).  In the meanwhile, Nadal will relish his opportunity to win his 11th Slam and close in on Roger’s record.