At this point, Rafael Nadal’s record is 0-2. You would think, with such a deficit, that he was “eliminated” from semifinal consideration.

But it’s not that simple.  He is eliminated, yes, but there is a scenario where this would not be as obvious.

Let’s imagine the following scenario.  Nadal beats Djokovic in straight sets.  Soderling beats Davydenko in straight sets.

In this scenario, Nadal, Djokovic, and Davydenko would all have 1-2 records with Soderling a perfect 3-0.  How would the rules determine the other semifinalist to join Robin Soderling?

If Nadal beat Djokovic in straight sets, Nadal would win 2 sets and lost 4 sets (2 each to Soderling/Davydenko).  Djokovic would have won 2 sets (2 sets over Davydenko) and lost 5 sets (2 to Nadal, 2 to Soderling, 1 to Davydenko). Let’s pretend Davydenko loses in straight sets to Soderling.  He would then have won 3 sets (2 sets over Nadal, 1 set in a loss to Djokovic) and lost 4 sets (2 to Soderling, 2 to Djokovic).  Davydenko would have a better set win percentage and get in that way.

If Davydenko loses in 3 sets to Soderling, his set-win percentage is better, because he would have 4 sets won to 5 sets lost.  If Davydenko wins over Soderling, but Nadal beats Djokovic, then both Soderling and Davydenko have a 2-1 record, and Nadal/Djokovic would have 1-2 records and be eliminated.

If Djokovic wins and Davydenko loses, Djokovic is in, because Djokovic would be 2-1, and Davydenko 1-2.

The interesting scenario is Djokovic winning and Davydenko winning.  In this case, Djokovic, Davydenko, and Soderling are all 2-1.  Soderling, at worst, would be 4-2 in sets won/sets lost.  Davydenko, at best, would be 5-2 in sets won/sets lost.  Djokovic, at best, would be 4-3.  In this scenario, Soderling and Davydenko get in.  Basically, if Davydenko wins in straight sets, he’s in regardless of what Djokovic does.  If Davydenko wins in 3 sets, Soderling has a 5-2 record and Davydenko has a 5-3 record, and again, Djokovic is out even if he beats Nadal in straight sets (since he would have a 4-3 record).

The summary is this: if Davydenko wins, he’s in.  If both Davydenko and Djokovic lose, Davydenko is also in.  Djokovic needs help to get into the semifinals, but the match-up, based on recent records actually favor Djokovic getting in.  In particular, Djokovic recently beat Nadal, and Nadal doesn’t seem up to beating his big rivals.  Also, Soderling has a pretty good win-loss record over Davydenko this year, though he has somewhat less motivation to win.

Soderling is also in, given all the scenarios.  If Nadal wins, Soderling can either win or lose because both Nadal and Djokovic would be 1-2 and Soderling would be at least 2-1.  If Djokovic wins and Soderling loses, then we have three players at 2-1, but Soderling’s 2 straight set wins give him a good set-win percentage, and he’s still in.

Based on equal chances of winning and losing, Davydenko would be the other semifinalist with Soderling, but based on recent performance, Djokovic would be the other semifinalist (thus, Soderling and Djokovic winning is the prediction based on recent performances).

Summary

  • Soderling is in
  • Nadal is out
  • Davydenko wins and he’s in
  • Djokovic needs to win and Davydenko to lose to get in
  • Thus, if Djokovic loses then Davydenko is in

Although the claim was Verdasco was out, he wasn’t really.  If Verdasco had beaten Murray, he and Murray would be 1-2.  If Federer had beaten del Potro, then del Potro would also have been 1-2.  At that point, everything would have depended on how many sets each won/lost.

It just seems like Verdasco was in a losing position at 0-2, but he wasn’t.  Verdasco was in the most precarious situation, however.  Even if he won, he also needed del Potro to lose, for the tiebreak rules to kick in.  del Potro, by contrast, had some control.  If del Potro won, then at the very least, he would be in contention regardless of who else won or lost, and it would go to set percentage won or game percentage won after that.