If you were to ask a tennis aficionado who would be in the semifinals, few would tell you: Federer, Davydenko, Soderling, del Potro.  Perhaps you might guess Federer and del Potro, but to think the very hot Novak Djokovic and the nearly hot Andy Murray would not be contending would be a surprise.

Indeed, both Djokovic and Murray were both narrowly eliminated, both with a 2-1 record that wasn’t enough to get them to the semifinals.

In one semifinal, Federer managed to win his group despite what most people would say was subpar play.  Federer had managed to lose a set in each of his match, and shank balls, find it hard to chase down balls that makes people wonder, despite a 2 Slam 2009, whether Federer’s best days are behind him.

Federer was oh-so-close to having a fantastic year, nearly winning a small Slam, i.e., taking 3 of 4 Slams.  Even so, he would have done it in Sampras-ian style, peaking for the big events, rather than playing wire-to-wire fantastic tennis.  Indeed, his appearance in the semis of the ATP World Tour Finals is as much due to playing very well in sets or a set and a half.

Perhaps it was not surprising that Davydenko, a guy who had never beaten Federer, and who struggled taking a set of Federer, found himself doing quite well against the Swiss maesto.  Davydenko hadn’t played Federer since early last year which coincides with Federer’s skills declining.  More players seem able to hang with Federer.  They play more patient with him.  Only a player like del Potro seems capable of overpowering the aggressive Swiss.  Those who have success against Federer have learned to fetch a lot of balls and watch him inexplicably collapse.

Davydenko still had a tough time, but eventually figured out how to beat Federer in a tight match: 6-2, 4-6, 7-5.  At a late point in the third set, Davydenko found himself serving 4-5 down, 0-30.  The 0-30 found Davydenko heading to net and hitting an overhead to which Federer hit an overhead off that overhead, and it seemed Federer would be ready to take that match off the brilliant point.  Alas, it was not to be.  Davydenko held serve off some tough playing, and it was Federer who found himself broken in the next game.  Federer still had chances to get to a tiebreak when he found himself break point on Davydenko’s serve, but Davydenko still found a way out and won the match and beat Federer for the first time ever.

The surprise semifinals was del Potro vs. Soderling.  Both are known for hitting the ball very hard.  del Potro started out of the gate quite quickly, finding it pretty easy to hold serve.  Soderling struggled some, getting to 0-40 early in the first set, and managed to extricate himself from this precarious situation.  And a good thing too, because del Potro never lost serve in the first set.  In the tiebreak, as well as del Potro played in the set, he played awful in the tiebreak, losing both his first 2 points in the tiebreak, and eventually losing it 7-1.

However, del Potro has showed amazing resilience, having come back a set down to win matches 13 times this season, and again, he came back against the sole Swede in the top 250 men.  By the third set, Soderling was finding good range on the groundstrokes and broke del Potro in the middle of the 3rd set, only to find del Potro ready to break him back in the next game.

Again, they held serve up to the tiebreak, despite opportunities for Soderling to break.  del Potro got a bit lucky in anticipation, and then in the last few games of the set, both found it fairly easy to hold.  The 3rd set tiebreak was the opposite of the 1st set with del Potro getting an early lead and never relinquishing it.

Final score: 6-7 (1), 6-3, 7-6 (3)

The finals: Davydenko vs. del Potro.  The two haven’t played since last year when Davydenko met him in round robin play in what was then called the Masters Cup.  However, del Potro does lead their head-to-head 2-1.  Has del Potro gotten better since then?  del Potro served extremely well (as did Soderling).  Can Davydenko return it.

It wasn’t the final most people expected, but perhaps it is not unexpected, pitting the player that plays up to the biggest events (del Potro) against the steadiest guy in the indoor season (Davydenko).