Generally speaking, when Nadal takes some time off, he’s serious about winning a tournament.  Until 2010, these were the list of big achievements (in single events), he had yet to achieve: win the US Open (he hadn’t even made the finals) and win the year-end championship (he had never been to the finals there).

Having already beaten Novak Djokovic to win the US Open, Rafa had to duplicate this feat to get a solid 2-0 lead and give him some assurance he would make the semis.  Nole was also in the same position.  Win this match, and he’d take a 2-0 lead.

But, it turns out, not all 2-0 leads are created equal.  Because Berdych had beaten Roddick earlier in the day, if Novak won his match, he’d secure a semifinal spot.  If Rafa won, he would still not know for sure if he was in the semifinals.

Here’s how the math works out.  If Novak won, he’d be 2-0.  He’d play Andy Roddick who, by virtue of his loss to Berdych, was 0-2.  Clearly, if Novak beat Roddick, he’d be in with a 3-0 record.  But it turns out, he’d be in even if he lost to Roddick.  Say, he lost to Roddick.  Then, Roddick would be 1-2 and Novak would be 2-1.

At this point, both Rafa and Berdych would be 1-1 (we assumed Novak beat Rafa).  The winner of the match would be 2-1, as would Novak, the loser would be 1-2, just like Roddick, and both the loser and Roddick would be out at 1-2.

But, if Rafa won, then he’d be 2-0 and Djokovic would be 1-1.  Djokovic would play Roddick who is 0-2.  Suppose Djokovic beats Roddick.  Djokovic would be 2-1.  Suppose Berdych beats Rafa.  Then Berdych would also be 2-1 and so would Rafa.  There would be a 3-way tie with players having a 2-1 win-loss record.  In that scenario, sets won would matter.  If Berdych beat Rafa in straight sets and Djokovic beat Roddick in straight sets, then Rafa would not make it since he gave up a set in his win over Roddick.  Berdych and Djokovic would have not dropped a set in their win, and both had straight set losses.

To be fair, that’s a pretty big if.  While Djokovic beating Roddick isn’t unreasonable, it’s hard to imagine Berdych beating Rafa, in straight sets, no less.  Berdych would have to step his game up even more than usual.

And, it turns out, there’s a scenario that Roddick could get in too.  Roddick would, of course, have to beat Djokovic.  Then, both would be 1-2.  Rafa would have to beat Berdych, then Berdych would also be 1-2.  Since Roddick picked up a set in his loss to Nadal, his chances are somewhat good to be the last man standing.  Had Roddick taken a set of Berdych, his chances would be really good.

There’s another piece to this puzzle.

At this point, Djokovic still has a decent shot at reaching the semifinals.  If he beats Roddick, and Rafa beats Berdych (as expected), he’ll be in the semis.  But does he want to be?

While Djokovic has a whole host of goals he would like to achieve in his lifetime, the most reasonable one at the moment?  Win Davis Cup.  Monfils and Llodra are playing some of their best tennis right now.  Llodra recently upset Djokovic in Parise.  Monfils made the finals.  But, Djokovic is striking the ball well and Troicki recently won his first tournament, so Team Serbia is also peaking.  If Djokovic gets into the semis, he’s guaranteed to play one more match (including the 3 he has to play), and possibly 2, if he really tries.  This is 5 matches in one week.

Davis Cup starts on a Friday, so Djokovic might wear himself out by trying to win the year-end championship.  There’s no guarantee that Serbia would win.  France could beat Troicki in both singles then win the doubles (had Nestor, who plays for Canada, played for Serbia–he is of Serbian descent, Serbia’s chances to win the doubles would be greatly enhanced—so far Zivojinovic has not been able to carry the doubles load by himself).  With Llodra and most likely Clement playing doubles, they have the better shot.

If Djokovic tanks and loses to Roddick, he’d be able to head out of London and back to Belgrade by Saturday and rest some before doing some training.

Oh, back to Rafa.  Turns out he did win.  The match was close at 5-all, and Rafa managed a break.  Then, Novak complained about a problem with his contact lenses, and lost the second set handily 6-2.

Tomorrow, Roger Federer plays Robin Soderling and David Ferrer plays Andy Murray.

At this point, Soderling, Ferrer, and Murray could each vie for the semifinal slot.  If Murray loses and Soderling loses, all three would be 1-2.  All 3 had a single straight set win and a single straight set loss.  It may come down to the player that can take a set in a loss.

If Soderling wins and Murray wins, then Federer, Soderling, and Murray would have 2-1 records each, and again, sets won would be the first tiebreak.

Federer has a solid chance to beat Soderling yet again.  Soderling didn’t look good in his loss to Murray and he looked a bit shaky in his win over Ferrer.  Soderling will need his serve to be humming if he wants to pull the upset.  However, Federer has been looking as good as ever (at least, for the last 3 years–he doesn’t look as good as his days of dominance).  His backhand is working well, his forehand is humming.  If Federer does win, the Murray wins and he’s in, otherwise, he’ll have to get in through the back door.

Ferrer’s not an easy guy to beat, but all 3 of of Murray’s losses to Ferrer have come on clay.  Murray’s one win is on hard courts, and that’s the surface they are playing on.

Federer and Soderling play the early match (Federer seems to like playing early) while Murray and Ferrer play the late match (better for British TV).