It’s half way through the Australian Open with the top half of the draw needing to complete their fourth round matches.
Let’s see how the top seeds are doing.
Rafael Nadal. Nadal beat an injured Marcos Daniel, then a qualifier in Ryan Sweeting. Bernard Tomic nearly took a set off Nadal. It’s hard to say whether that was Nadal’s poor play or Tomic’s strange mix of power and finesse. Nadal said he played poorly, which he says even if he wins in straight sets. Nadal said, early on, that it’s hard to gauge form in a first round match. He may be hinting that he’s not 100%. Rafa will play Cilic next. It’s hard to say how Cilic is playing. He had a not so great 2010 after great things were predicted for him. He thumped Nadal in their only meeting, which was a downtime for Nadal. Cilic seems to be playing better with his 5 set win over Isner. However, is he fit enough to recover and play Nadal? This match should say something about Nadal’s form. If Cilic plays close, Nadal might not be in such great shape. If Nadal wins handily, it could be a fatigued Cilic. Perhaps this fourth round match will answer a few questions.
Roger Federer. Federer has had the tougher road so far. He opened with a thumping of Lukas Lacko. But Gilles Simon showed spirit in pushing Federer to five sets. Roger generally plays well against players his own age, and showed this against Xavier Malisse, winning in straight sets. However, he gave up a set to Tommy Robredo when his strokes misfired for a bit. Fed had been hitting the ball cleanly since Toronto. The last few matches marked the first time he’s started mishitting his forehand and backhand. He faces his compatriot Stan Wawrinka next, who has had two great matches. Federer will need to step up if he wants to reach the semifinals again. Federer’s form has been good, but not great. However, Fed often has a match where he plays lights out. Will he play such a match against Wawa or will Wawa pose problems for Fed?
Novak Djokovic. Djokovic has had a weird path here. He easily beat Marcel Granollers, then needed four sets to beat Ivan Dodig, but did spank Dodig 6-0, 6-2 in sets 3 and 4. Troicki retired after a set in his third round match, and he looked dominant against Almagro in the fourth round. Of the top 3 seeds, Djokovic looks the best so far, even though Nadal has yet to drop a set. Djokovic will have his hands full against Berdych. Berdych beat him at Wimbledon, but Djokovic returned the favor in Davis Cup and in the year-end ATP World Tour Finals.
Berdych is starting to show the kind of form that got him to the French Open semis and Wimbledon finals. He thumped Fernando Verdasco who plays a similar style. He played nearly error-free taking the third set while dropping over a dozen winners. Verdasco was left shrugging his shoulders wondering how someone could hit that cleanly.
Robin Soderling. Soderling’s been accused of being a one-trick pony, but what a great trick. He’s got a huge serve and huge groundstrokes. His goal: hit you off the court. Only a handful of players can keep up with Soderling once he starts cranking up the power. So far, he’s yet to drop a set. He’s yet to play anyone really tough. Dolgopolov is not quite up to the standards of a top player, but he looks like a player that might move up the rankings. Will Soderling be able to impose his will once again? Soderling is showing that a power game can get you deep into any tournament. He’s playing quite well.
Andy Murray. Murray has also had a nice draw. He’s yet to drop a set. He humiliated 32nd seed, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, dropping only 4 games so far. I think we’ll get a sense of where his game is against Jurgen Melzer. Melzer’s a powerful lefty who has played his best tennis of his career since the French Open last year. Melzer has never beaten Murray in 4 tries, but all 4 tries were before Melzer made his upward surge to the top 10. Murray knows Melzer has improved a lot, but surely, he still has confidence in his ability to win. This match will also say a lot about Murray’s ability to handle a hard hitter who attacks a fair bit.
Tomas Berdych. Gotta say, Berdych has been a surprise so far. After Wimbledon, Berdych started losing to players that he used to lose to, and had an indifferent US Open. He reached the semifinals of Chennai but got thumped by Wawrinka. Many felt it was just inconsistent Berdych rather than Wawa on the rise that lead to the lopsided win (it could have been both). Berdych has yet to drop a set. Berdych’s win over Verdasco was a showcase in power and accuracy and really was the first signature match that shows Berdych might contend. He faces Djokovic next in what will be one of the more exciting quarterfinal matches.
David Ferrer. Ferrer hasn’t played a tough guy yet. He beat tour veteran, Jarkko Nieminen, then Michael Russell and Richard Berankis. Russell is ranked 100. Berankis is ranked 95. He faces Canadian upstart, Milos Raonic, whose rank is 152. Ferrer knows how to play big hitters. He’s had success against Soderling and Verdasco. This could be a signature win for Raonic, but Ferrer is likely way too good for Raonic to make an impression. Hard to say what Ferrer’s form is. He tends to play his brand of tennis, and have few inconsistent days. He generally maximizes what he does well, which is move around the court and take advantage of weak shots. Everyone knows he’s a tough guy to beat, but he lacks the guns to take down the top players. Even if he wins, he’ll face world number 1, Rafael Nadal, and that would probably end his run.
At this point, 7 of the top 8 seeds are still in it (Roddick is out). There’s Melzer, Cilic, and Wawrinka who are all still in it, with Wawrinka the one that seems most in-form. Raonic and Dolgopolov are the remaining unseeded players with Raonic being the only qualifier left and the lowest ranked played left as well.
So far, the players that seem in good form are: Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, and maybe Stan Wawrinka. Roger Federer seems a bit shaky, but he seems to find ways to win. Nadal is still a bit of an unknown, but he’s number one, and so he may simply warm up to playing well.
It’s getting to the business end of the Slam with the best players starting to meet each other. Let’s see who’s got it, and who doesn’t.