Andy Murray probably knows the math.  He’s got a good head-to-head over Federer.  Djokovic has been practicing and looks ready to continue his winning streak.  With Murray entering Basel as a wildcard, he’s hoping that Federer loses in the semifinals and that Murray himself reaches the semifinals.  At the very least, he wants to keep up with Federer.  Every point Murray wins in Basel is a point that Federer has to overcome to regain the number 3 ranking.  Murray knows that Federer, having not played since Davis Cup in Australia some five or so weeks ago might be a bit rusty.

Federer generally plays well off long rest.  Last year, he played his first tournament after the US Open at Shanghai.  He beat Djokovic in the semis but lost to Murray easily in the finals.  Murray doesn’t even have to win Basel.  Get to the semis, and he builds up enough points to make Roger Federer’s attempt to get back to 3 that much tougher.  Murray would probably prefer to play Federer in the semis, but even a Djokovic semi would be good for Murray.

Murray had planned to skip next week and come back in Paris, but surely he did the calculations and decided his body could handle the two week effort to play Basel, then Paris.

Vienna

Half the seeds have lost so far, but defending champ, Jurgen Melzer is still in his homecountry tournament.  Thomas Muster, now in his 40s, decided to come back to tour last year.  He got a wildcard, managed to win 5 games against another Austrian wildcard, and promptly decided to retire again.  Muster was hoping his game could hold up despite his age, but a lack of regular play in the last decade and the increase in pace of everyone in the pro tour meant Muster was lucky to win a few games.

The quarterfinals are set:

  • Tsonga(1) vs. Malisse.  Tsonga wants to gain a few more points to keep his 8th spot secure for the year-end championship.  Malisse upset Fognini to get this round.
  • Brands vs. Darcis.  This German-Belgian showdown is a battle between two qualifiers.  Brands beat Stepanek while Darcis beat Davydenko in earlier rounds.
  • Anderson vs. Melzer.  Anderson continues to do well in his best year ever.  Melzer is hoping not to slip much further as the former top tenner has struggled to win matches.
  • Haas vs. del Potro.  Haas hasn’t reached a quarterfinals in about 2 years.  del Potro is a longshot for the year-end championship but is still working on a comeback.  He should be favored to win.

St. Petersburg

The quarterfinals are also set

  • Mannarino vs. Youzhny.  Mannarino upset fellow countryman Gilles Simon and has reached the quarters.  He faces Russian, Youzhny, who also beat a Frenchman (Benneteau) in the previous round.  Can Mannarino continue his success at one of his best tournaments of the year?
  • Cilic vs. Seppi.  Cilic was considered the next great one.  Some predicted he would be better than del Potro.  del Potro got hurt.  Cilic started playing poorly.  Cilic has played better in the last few weeks.  Is it good enough to beat Seppi?  I think so.
  • Bogomolov vs. Lajovic.  Fellow Serbs are tweeting about the next great Serb, Dusan Lavojic.  Bogomolov is having his best year yet and has played well in two consecutive tournaments in Russia.  Can the 21 year old upset the Russian-now-American veteran?  Could be a career-changing win.
  • Tipsarevic vs. Starace.  When the cat (Djokovic) is away, the mice (Tipsarevic) will play.  Tipsy is having his best few weeks ever.  He finally cracked the finals jinx by winning Kuala Lumpur a few weeks ago, his first title.  His second title came last week in Moscow.  Tipsarevic goes for a trifecta in St. Petersburg making his push to be the 8th guy in the year-end championship.  He’s on a hot streak.