In 2008, Roger Federer failed to reach a Slam final at the Australian Open.  He had had mono.  Despite this, he reached the semis.  At the French Open, he once again, lost to Rafael Nadal, the year Nadal didn’t drop a set in the tournament.  At Wimbledon, after several years of being runner up, Rafael Nadal broke through and won Wimbledon.  Federer still clung on to number 1, but would relinquish his hold at number 1 on August 18, 2008, just before the US Open and just after the Olympics.

Federer could have held onto number 1 had he performed just a bit better here and there, but 2008 was a shaky year for Federer, despite reaching 3 of 4 Slam finals and winning one.  He was losing to players that he wouldn’t normally have lost to.  Any win would have meant another week or so at the top, and that would have meant tying Pete Sampras’s record 286 weeks at number 1.

Federer would be given another reprieve.  In the fourth round of the French Open in 2009, the unthinkable happened.

Rafael Nadal lost.

He lost to Robin Soderling.  Soderling was having his own Lukas Rosol moment, clubbing away at the ball.  Nadal was struggling with tendonitis and confidence, and eventually lost the match in four sets.  Roger Federer would win his only French Open during that gap.  He then went on to reclaim Wimbledon in 2009 and with 2 Slams in hand, he regained number 1 on July 6, 2009, shortly after Wimbledon.

Almost a year later, on June 7, 2010, he would relinquish number 1.  Despite having about a 3,000 point lead over Rafael Nadal, the gap evaporated just like that when Rafael Nadal won the French Open.  Since he lost so early the previous year, he earned most of the 2000 points that the winner gets (minus the fraction he won the year before).  Meanwhile, Federer lost in the quarterfinals to the previous year’s finalist, Robin Soderling.  Thus, Federer, who was defending champ, lost more than 1000 points.  With Nadal picking up nearly 2000 points and Roger losing nearly 1000 points, Nadal became number 1.  And by winning Wimbledon, Nadal increased the gap even more considering he had zero points from the year before.

When Djokovic went on a huge win streak in 2011, it seemed like there were not just one, but two people that could beat Federer on a regular basis.  Federer had not shown he could beat Nadal and Djokovic in the same Slam while Djokovic had shown he could beat Federer and Nadal in the same Slam (at the US Open, in particular).

While some folks believed Federer might be able to string enough wins to take another Slam, perhaps at Wimbledon (despite it being his worst Slam the last few years), few thought he could reclaim number 1.  He wasn’t playing consistent enough ball to make that happen.

But Federer, as he always does, had a plan.  He would try to win matches when the rest of the tour was struggling with their game.  Nadal has notoriously played poorly after the US Open.  His body, historically, had begun to break down after Wimbledon.  He put so much effort in the clay season, the French, and Wimbledon, that he struggled to play well after September.  In some years, he didn’t even play much after the US Open.

Lately, his scheduling has been better, and he’s managed to make it to the year-end finals and play.  But he’s gone through at least two year-long stretches where he failed to win a title.  One stretch occurred in 2009.  Starting in Madrid, where Nadal lost to Federer in the finals, Nadal did not win another title until Monte Carlo in 2010.  This isn’t to say he was playing badly.  He was still going deep in tournaments.

But he’d run into an inspired Ljubicic in Indian Wells or an inspired Roddick in Miami or an inspired Davydenko in Doha.  Nadal was doing well, but just not winning.

Djokovic also stopped Nadal in 2011.  After the French Open title, Rafael Nadal did not win another title until 2012 Monte Carlo.  He lost in the finals of Wimbledon in 2011, then in the quarters of Cincy to Mardy Fish, then in the finals of the US Open to Djokovic, then in the finals of Tokyo to Murray.  He didn’t get out of round robins at the year-end championship.  He lost in the Aussie Open final to Djokovic, to Roger Federer in Indian Wells, and didn’t even play Andy Murray in the semis of Miami.

While Nadal struggled to win after the US Open, so did Novak Djokovic.  Djokovic was lucky that Nadal seemed so tired in the fourth set, that he couldn’t do much to topple Djokovic who was basically gunning his shots and hoping to win before his body let him down.  Djokovic would be unable to play his Davis Cup match against del Potro, and did rather mediocre the rest of the year.

During that time, Federer chose to skip Shanghai so he could recover and train.  He returned to win Basel, then to win Paris, then to win the year-end championship where he didn’t drop a match.  He picked up 1500 points from that, plus 500 from Basel.  Those put together equal a Slam.  He won Paris in 2011, and then Indian Wells in 2012.  Those put together equal a Slam.  He won Madrid, Dubai, and Rotterdam.  Those put together equal a Slam.  Thus, he had picked up the equivalent of winning 3 Slams without winning a Slam.

Djokovic had piled up his huge lead in 2011 in the same fashion, winning 5 Masters 1000 titles in addition to 3 of 4 Slams and opened up the year with a Slam.  But, Djokovic has only won one Masters 1000 this year, at Miami.  He reached another two in his losses at Rome and Monte Carlo.  Djokovic is playing well, but he’s losing points.

Federer got a break when Nadal lost early at Wimbledon.  This meant he didn’t have to play Nadal in the finals.  Given his druthers, playing Murray or playing Nadal, Federer would almost surely opt to play Murray.  This meant he had to get past Djokovic.  This turned out to be a challenge as journeyman, Benneteau, pushed Roger to five sets, and two points from a loss in the fourth set before a feebled Benneteau had no more to give in the fifth.  He had a back issue with Malisse, but Malisse couldn’t solve a weakened Federer, and eventually, Federer played well enough to win in 4.

The week after Wimbledon, Roger Federer tied Pete Sampras’s record at 286 weeks.  The only thing that could stop him was a spiteful Djokovic who had no reason to alter his schedule just to reclaim the number 1 title.  Both Djokovic and Nadal, and Federer and Murray for that matter, have decided not to play until the Olympics.  Only number 5, David Ferrer, is back to playing.  Seems like Ferrer’s tough enough to keep playing even after reaching the semis of Wimbledon, and he’s already won another title in Bastad.

So this means, on Monday, July 16, Roger Federer will break one more Pete Sampras record.  He’ll be in sole ownership of weeks at number 1.  Of course, there are still other records to break.  He could break Sampras’s record at Wimbledon next year by winning his 8th Wimbledon.

These days, it’s fashionable to say how great Roger Federer is, but realize had Andy Murray won, we’d be saying that Federer’s reign had come to an end, that he’s vulnerable to 3 top players.  We’d be singing a completely different song.

But that’s not how it ended, so Federer gets to bask in a new record.  Meanwhile, Pete Sampras has to wonder how his records disappeared so quickly, merely a decade after he accomplished them.