Every time a Slam rolls around, it’s the equivalent of an exam for professional tennis players. The players prep for this exam by playing tournaments leading up to the Slam, and they hope to do their best. Unlike exams given in a classroom setting, players are prone to injuries. Tennis is a very physical game, and one can enter a Slam having prepared as best as possible, but some niggling injury does one in. And, unlike a student who has aced his midterms and is ready for the final exam, the players that do best heading into a Slam don’t always do well in the Slam.
The financial analysts always make a caveat in their commercials. They want you to believe that only they know how best to invest your money, how you’ll be wealthy after they manage it. Then, they tack on the obligatory “Past performance is no indicator of future success”. They say this to give themselves an out. But, in tennis, if we do not use past success, how do we predict future performance.
Let’s take a quick look back at Wimbledon. Roger Federer had lost to Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals. And in the French, he had lost to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals. Many experts were writing Roger off, except those that felt that Roger still had something left in his game, having once been burned when they wrote him off the last time. Roger was starting to lose to players that he had gaudy records against, including Robin Soderling. He was shanking balls again. Roger was once this elegant machine that would hit shots no one could imagine, but now looked like he was sputtering, malfunctioning, spraying balls everywhere.
Roger, for his part, claimed his back and legs were bothering him. He needed rest. And so, after two weeks of rest, he felt those injuries had subsided and was back to training.
Meanwhile, everyone thought Nadal was poised to take the US Open title. Nadal had been injured during the Australian Open and took quite a bit of time off. Then, it was Indian Wells, Miami, the entire clay court season, the French, and Wimbledon. Everything looked good for Nadal. He was playing dominating tennis. Only a matter of time to win the US Open.
Then, a strange thing happened to both Roger and Rafa. The two hard court Masters 1000, Toronto and Cincinnati, recast everything experts were saying. Roger had slipped to number 3. Many scratched their heads over this one. Novak Djokovic was certainly a solid player, but his Slam results were a bit spotty. Quarterfinal loss to Tsonga in Australia, quarterfinal loss to Melzer at the French, and finally, semifinal loss to Berdych at Wimbledon. In each of these matches, he has favored to win, and in two of these matches, he was on the verge of winning. The only match that he came out flat was against Berdych, and even Djokovic admitted he played Berdych too cautiously.
Djokovic’s ranking of 3 was primarily due to his performance since last year’s US Open. People forget that a ranking is based on a year’s accomplishments. What you did 8-12 months ago is still relevant. Djokovic reached the semis of the US Open, won at Basel, won at Beijing, won at Paris. The fact was, Djokovic, along with Davydenko, was one of the hottest players after the US Open. Had Davydenko not played so well, Djokovic would have likely won Shanghai as well. Roger Federer, meanwhile, didn’t have a particularly good post-US Open run and didn’t play a lot of tournaments. For once, Rafa’s injuries meant he was actually healthy enough to play many of the post-US Open tournaments. But he had lost some confidence for nearly a year–good enough to reach deep in tournaments, but not good enough to beat the other elites of the game. This was not surprising. It had been typical nearly every year when the hard court season rolled around.
Roger Federer is a man of habit. He tries not to panic. Shortly after Wimbledon, Djokovic moved to number 2 in the world. For the first time, he chose to play Los Angeles. Historically, Djokovic supported Umag. Despite being Serbian, he routinely played Umag in Croatia, then maybe once of either Canada or Cincinnati. Before 2007, his rankings were low enough that getting into the major tournaments was a challenge. By playing LA, Djokovic could pad out his points and make it difficult for Roger to get the number 2 seed. Roger could have played LA, and tried to gain similar points. But he didn’t panic, didn’t ask for a last minute wildcard. If he were number 3 seed, so be it.
But Djokovic withdrew from LA and Andy Murray, being a “nice guy”, opted to help out. Then, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer in Toronto, then to Andy Roddick in Toronto. Djokovic, up to that point, had looked like the “meh” player he had been all year long. Djokovic had only won one tournament in 2010: Dubai. His resume was looking very much like Andy Murray who won his first title of the year in Toronto.
Indeed, it was Andy Murray with his double, beating Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the same tournament, that looked like he might be a strong favorite heading into the US Open. Murray, of the top pros, was willing, for a time, to show part of his training. Despite his work, he seemed lethargic at Cincy, the heat seemingly having a bigger effect than expected. He sputtered his way past Gulbis, a match Murray barely seemed to be into, and then lost to Mardy Fish, who had been having an excellent summer.
Ah, Mardy Fish. Mardy Fish had been on the tour a long time. He must be one likable guy. Not only had he known Andy Roddick since he was in high school, but he was James Blake’s best man. People just like Mardy Fish. Although he was talented enough to reach the finals of a Masters 1000 event early in his career, Mardy didn’t really start to do well until 2007 when he made a miraculous run to the final of Indian Wells, a sustained run of brilliance few had accomplished up to then. He beat Federer, yes, but also Davydenko, Nalbandian, and Hewitt, each who has flirted or made top 3 in the world or even 2 and 1 for many of them. Mardy was stopped by the wunderkind of the day, one Novak Djokovic.
Mardy had been suffering from injuries when his good buddy Andy Roddick said that Fish needed to lose weight. While injured, Mardy changed his diet, hired a dietician, stopped eating out, and lost 30 pounds. So much was made of this that fans were sure it would be the theme of the US Open. Certainly, Fish was being asked repeatedly about his weight loss. Maybe Fish, out of mercy to himself, said to Djokovic “Beat me, beat me bad, so I don’t have to answer questions about my weight!”.
So, heading into the US Open, the feeling was this. Roger was back. Finalist in Toronto, beat Berdych after a third set comeback. Won Cincy over Mardy Fish. He was moving well, hitting well. Sure, not the domination that was 2006, but better than in Paris or in London. Andy Murray, doing good, won Toronto, lost in the quarters of Cincy to Mardy Fish, but early loss is probably good–get more rest for the US Open.
Mardy Fish. Won in Newport and Atlanta. Made the finals of Cincy. Looked to make a big impact at the US Open.
Marcos Baghdatis. Had a good run at Cincy. Lost in the semis to Federer. Was a finalist in DC against Nalbandian. Marcos chose to play New Haven, the week before the US Open. Lost to Stakhovsky, the eventual New Haven champ.
Andy Roddick, reached the semis of Cincy, reached the semis of Atlanta. Two losses to Mardy, but seemed to be doing OK once again.
And Rafa? Rafa made the semis of Toronto, but lost to Murray, and lost in the quarters of Cincy, to Marcos Baghdatis. He was spraying his backhand, and chipping his returns. He hardly looked like the dominant player that won Wimbledon or the French, but Rafa, being Rafa, hardly ever loses before the quarterfinals. Everyone thought, well, Rafa isn’t playing well, and it’s because it’s the hard courts. He traditionally doesn’t play well.
David Nalbandian, who had been long been considered washed out, won a Davis Cup tie for Argentina against Russia beating Davydenko and Youzhny. Nalbandian won DC over Baghdatis. People were looking seriously at Nalby as a guy who might reclaim his previous glory.
So what did the US Open tell us?
Marcos Baghdatis, who had had an excellent summer, succumbed to veteran Arnaud Clement, possibly due to the heat, in five sets. Andy Roddick, who didn’t have a spectacular summer, but seemed to be on the rebound, lost in the second round to Janko Tipsarevic. Despite losing to Roddick twice and being admonished by Roddick to f-ing win the next match, Tipsarevic was out by the next round, losing to the more athletically gifted Gael Monfils.
Nalbandian lost to Verdasco. Verdasco had not had a great summer, but he still likes the hardcourts, and was one of many Spaniards who made it deep into the US Open.
Mardy Fish made his appointed round against Novak Djokovic. Fish was hoping for a close match, but Djokovic made quick work of him, in straight sets in the fourth round.
Andy Murray looked sluggish against Stanislas Wawrinka, who went for big shots all match long. Murray’s loss seemed induced by injury. Murray played a few loose games and decided, once again, that he would not play the power style that won him Toronto. My feeling is that Murray finds that style damaging to his body, and only reserves it for a few matches here and there. I think if Murray were to hit power all the time, he’d find himself injured all the time too, so he finds other ways to win. But that’s just me. Maybe Murray is stubborn. Maybe he believes that he should win playing soft ball.
Murray’s loss opened up the US Open. Players like Sam Querrey thought he could make a good run, and he gave it a good shot, but Wawrinka, running around late in the fifth, trying to show that fatigue wasn’t bothering him, made several good chip n charge returns, and secured a late fifth set break. Querrey was unable to make that critical breakthough in this fouth round match.
Roger Federer? Of the players coming in to the US Open, Federer was favored by far. He regained his number 2 rank, and he made it to the semifinals, not dropping a set. Even Robin Soderling, the player that many expected would give Roger a tough time, lost in straight sets. Federer would play Djokovic for the fourth time in a row. Despite patchy play, Federer would reach match points against Djokovic when Djoker decided to go for broke and did so for several games. He was down 15-40, played an aggressive rally that ended in a swing forehand volley to save one match point, then a hard middle of the court to Roger’s deuce side to save another. He hit a great passing shot for another point.
Then, he broke Roger Federer, and did well enough to hold his own serve to upset the Swiss maestro. Although Federer had yet to drop a set, he played two sets with bad first serve percentages and a bit too many errors, and still, Roger was almost in the finals.
Rafa, for his part, righted the ship. It seems, each time that Rafa is on his own, being coached by Roig, the backup to Uncle Toni, his game goes down. And Uncle Toni comes by, the week before the US Open, to help get Rafa’s game back in shape. In Toronto and Cincy, Rafa played error prone tennis. Uncle Toni wanted Rafa to dial back the aggression, get used to the steady play, and take his chances at more opportune moments. This seemed to be just what the doctor ordered. Once Rafa got his consistency back, he got his confidence back, and then he got his power back.
To be fair, Rafa greatly benefited from winning his matches easily and facing opponent after opponent who had played five setters or lacked enough hits. Third round, Rafa plays Gilles Simon. Not only has Simon recently had a child from his girlfriend, but he needed five sets to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber. Down two sets, Simon gave up tamely. In the fourth round, Rafa played Lopez. Lopez had a retirement in the previous round and a five setter the round before. And, more or less, Rafa owns Lopez. Despite a win at Queen’s, Rafa knows he can beat Lopez almost always.
Quarterfinals. Rafa beats Verdasco. Forget that Rafa has never lost to Verdasco. Verdasco also played a five setter, coming from two sets to none down, to beat David Ferrer. Verdasco is fit, but this can’t be good for him.
Semifinals. Rafa beats Youzhny. Youzhny needed five sets to beat Wawrinka and was down two sets to one. Youzhny didn’t take early success in his career to vault himself to the top 10. Rafa handles him with ease.
Finally, Rafa against Djokovic. Djokovic needed five sets to beat Roger, but got a day of rest due to the rain. Rafa wins in four sets.
So now what? Rafa won the career Slam, won 3 of 4 Slams, a feat, by the way, that Roger should have had. Had Roger played smartly against del Potro in the US Open final last year, he would have accomplished the same feat for the fourth time!
People will ask whether Roger Federer is in decline. Federer again claimed (though far less strenuously) that he was not in the best of shape in the US Open, and he was very close to beating Djokovic, though one doubts he could have beaten Nadal in the finals.
Djokovic, for his part, did a lot to rehabilitate his image. Here was a guy who was synonymous with quitter. Some joked that he was going for the Grand Slam of retirements, to retire in each of the four Slams (apparently, he’s done it in 3 Slams so far). Yet, his effort to hold serve against Federer, then to break, and then all the break points he saved by playing big shots. All that helped endear him to New Yorkers despite Rafa’s unrelenting hitting.
Rafa, of course, is back to being great once again, and now, many think he’ll play a pared down schedule and give himself enough rest to contend for titles.
What about the rest? Andy Murray’s reputation probably suffered the biggest hit. He had parted ways with his coach, Miles Maclagan. This seemingly freed him to play the tennis he wanted to play. Lots of drop shots. He reached a peak in Toronto and played solid tennis to beat a resurgent Nalbandian, and Rafa and Roger in the same tournament. And yet, despite this amazing feat, he faded in Cincy and faded in the US Open. The questions became more serious. Will you ever win a Slam, Andy Murray? And, on the verge of tears, Murray said he’d continue to fight.
Murray is a stubborn man, to be sure. Everyone tells him to play a style he hates to play. Everyone says, look how well it served you in Toronto. Just play that way all the time. Dominate your opponent. Stop waiting for them to make the errors. And yet, time and again, Murray says no. At one point, his change of pace was brilliant. Players would self-destruct as they couldn’t deal with what seemed like a genius way to play. But soon, they prepared for his style and found ways to beat it.
Davydenko? Here’s a guy that seems to need his game in perfect alignment to run well. Davydenko often plays before he’s fully ready. He’s a bit like Nadal in that his game is built on precision and power, and yet Nadal almost always recovers quicker. Davydenko has to be kicking himself, wondering how he managed to break his wrist. Can he even come close to the way he played a year ago.
Andy Roddick? Once you see how Djokovic plays, you see why Roddick never had a chance to move really high in the rankings. Roddick has learned to play a style that suits his game. Roddick could never hit the down-the-line winners that Djokovic could. He just can’t do it. He doesn’t play the miracle shots that Federer or Rafa can. Roddick is a big serve and a steady play, and it works on most players, but not the very best.
Although Roddick is often compared to Murray, despite differing styles, Murray has a ton of variety, but resorts to playing softball, despite some ability to play hardball (though not as well as Roger, Rafa, or Novak). Roddick, on the other hand, lacks the variety, but even more, he lacks the consistent hard pace of a player like Djokovic. Roddick can’t go down the line again and again. He’s make too many errors.
Robin Soderling? You know, he’s flirting with number 4 in the world. He’s got the kind of game that gives nearly everyone trouble, except the very best. He’s spent all his effort hitting hard, that he lacks much subtlety. Nadal has worked a lot on his slice backhand and a ton on his volley and now he looks pretty good as a volleyer. Soderling lacks this versatility. He’s like del Potro except Delpo’s forehand is even bigger and perhaps his serve is too.
And Delpo? Here’s a fierce competitor. Can he come back? Nadal showed he can come back. Davydenko still looks shaky, by comparison. del Potro has the kind of power game to make life tough for Nadal.
So we leave the US Open seeing how everyone fared. Nadal and Djokovic looked good. Federer was looking for answers and probably came out about even. Murray didn’t look so good. Berdych and Davydenko didn’t do so good. Soderling did as well expected, as did Mardy Fish. The Spaniards had a good US Open, even outside of Rafa.
And although typical American sports fans turn their attention once again to American football, be it college or pros, the tennis season still rolls along. Davis Cup at the end of the week, then a swing through Asia, then to Europe, and then to London for the year-end championship. True tennis fans know the season still has another quarter left to go.
