Although past performance is not always an indicator of future success, what else do we have to use for predictions? So, here we go looking at players in form and not.
In Form
Roger Federer
Here was a guy who had an amazing streak of reaching semifinals of Slams dating back 5 years. Had Fed not gotten mono in 2008, he would have had an (even more) impressive streak reaching finals of Slams. All this went away in two consecutive Slams. In the French, Roger lost to one hard hitter in Robin Soderling in the quarters, then he lost to another hard hitter in Tomas Berdych in the quarters at Wimbledon. Everyone said his game was done for, especially after Nadal’s dominant performance winning the French and Wimbledon.
But what a difference 5-6 weeks make. Roger entered Toronto and Cincinnati and got to the finals of one and won the other. In the process, he beat players that had given him trouble, including digging deep to beat Berdych down a break in the third set. Roger had complained his back and legs were bothering him. Many said it was sour grapes, but he came back moving better than ever. His backhand was better. He was holding serve more easily.
If there’s anything that seems troubling, it’s that his matches seem to go on longer than they have to. He’s often pushed to another set, or having to wait for a late break because he’s not returning spectacularly well. Roger’s return game has never been a huge strength. He certainly returns well, but he likes to end points somewhat quickly on big shots, and has generally never liked waiting for his opponents to make errors.
Even so, he’s the one to watch.
Andy Murray
Andy Murray was criticized for winning too many tournaments but not being a serious enough threat at the majors last year. In 2009, he lost to Fernando Verdasco saying he was ill during the Slam. He reached the semis of Wimbledon, but fell to Andy Roddick in four sets. He reached the quarterfinals of the French, his best showing at Roland Garros up to that point. He then lost early to Marin Cilic in the fourth round of the US Open, a disappointing result for a man who puts the US Open as his best chance to win a Slam.
Andy Murray reached his second Slam final in Australia this year, but again fell to Roger Federer in straight sets. Then, he went into a funk, didn’t want to play, withdrew from Marseilles, lost early in Dubai, and although he had a decent QF result in Indian Wells, it was followed by a shocking exit to Mardy Fish early in Miami. Murray would then lose handily to Philipp Kohlschreiber in Monte Carlo before he tried to get his game in gear.
He lost to David Ferrer twice, but at that point, Ferrer was playing some of his best tennis. It didn’t translate to a deep French Open run, but even so. Murray lost in the fourth round to Tomas Berdych at Roland Garros before reaching the semifinals again at Wimbledon where he succumbed in straight sets to eventual champ, Rafael Nadal.
Andy then filled in for Novak Djokovic in Los Angeles. Djokovic was supposed to play but withdrew prior to the tournament. Murray reached the finals but lost to defending champ, Sam Querrey.
Murray then had his best result in a non-Slam. He beat Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and took the title in Toronto. In Cincinnati, Murray reached the quarterfinals, where he lost to Mardy Fish for the third time this year (he lost to him in Queen’s Club and Miami). He had looked lackluster against Ernests Gulbis, but still pulled out the victory.
The upside is how well Murray played to win Toronto. The downside was dealing with the heat in Cincinnati and looking somewhat listless against Gulbis and Fish. Even so, he still pushed Fish to a third-set tiebreak.
Mardy Fish
Cincinnati was Fish’s big result. Although he won Newport and Atlanta, making it one of Fish’s best stretch of playing tennis in a while, those are relatively small tournaments, especially Newport. Those early wins might not have meant much had Fish lost early at both Toronto and Cincinnati. Fish decided to skip Toronto, as did Andy Roddick, so both could train in the Austin heat. Fish clearly benefited beating two Andy’s en route to a final appearance against Roger Federer and pushing Fed to three sets only dropping serve once, late in the third set.
Everyone points to his 30 lb weight loss, his increased mobility, and just the belief he can win. With a huge serve, an ability to finish points off at the net, he looks poised to make a deep run in the US Open, but…
But, Mardy Fish has a bad draw. He is in the same section as Marcos Baghdatis who is the other “hot player”.
Marcos Baghdatis
For a guy who reached the finals of the Australian Open a few years ago, Baghdatis was a talent that hasn’t quite been fully realized. Last year, Baghdatis’s rank had dropped to around 100, and he had to claw his way back up the ranks playing Challenger events. Baghdatis upset Roger Federer in Indian Wells, but lost to Tommy Robredo in the next round. Baghdatis then reached the finals of Washington DC, then went on to reach the semifinals of Cincinnati, beating Rafael Nadal in the quarters. He lost to Federer in the semifinals.
As mentioned earlier, he likely faces Mardy Fish in the third round of the US Open, which is bad for both players who’d rather see someone with less recent success.
David Nalbandian
Some call him the most talented player playing never to have won a Slam. Well, they used to say that until Andy Murray came along. Like many of Federer’s rivals, Nalbandian was someone Federer found tough to beat early in his career. Later in his career, Nalbandian struggled to stay relevant much like another top player, Lleyton Hewitt. Nalbandian was recovering from injury and spent time training for Davis Cup in Russia where he single-handedly gave 2 wins for Argentina. Were del Potro healthy, Argentina might have been a formidable team.
Nalbandian then came to Washington DC and on the strength of his big return game, he won the tournament. In Toronto, many felt he might topple Andy Murray, but Murray came out with a fierce attack against Nalbandian, who looked weary after his recent success. Nalbandian lost to Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati in a match that threatened to go three sets. But up to then, he looked sharp, returning well and pressuring opponent off the ground.
Nalbandian has a reasonably friendly draw. He meets a qualifier in the first round. He might meet Fernando Verdasco by the third round. He might actually be favored since Verdasco hasn’t had a great summer. They’ve only met once, back in 2006 at Wimbledon, which Verdasco won in three sets.
Almost In Form
Sam Querrey
If ATP 250 events were the only events where rankings mattered, Sam Querrey would be number 1. He won Memphis, Queen’s Club, Belgrade, and Los Angeles. He was a finalist in Houston and got to the semis of San Jose. And that’s this year. And yet, when it comes to ATP 500, Masters 1000, or Slams, Querrey’s results are more spotted. He lost to Tipsarevic in the 2nd round of DC, then lost to Kevin Anderson in the 2nd round of Toronto, then to Ferrer in the 2nd round of Cincinnati. Querrey is getting better at beating players outside of the top 20, but he only has the occasional win against players ranked highly, although he did get his best win recently beating Andy Murray in the finals of Los Angeles.
Querrey has a reasonably good draw early on. His section would be a headache were he on clay, but on hard courts, he should fare better. The players include Granollers, Seppi, Kubot, Garcia-Lopez, Almagro, and Starace. However, he only has to face one of Kubot, Starace, Almagro, or Garcia-Lopez. Almagro would be his toughest match, but Almagro hasn’t played tough hard court tennis. Querrey should make it to the fourth round to meet Andy Murray.
Novak Djokovic
One wonders what would happen if Novak Djokovic were truly healthy. He missed out on so many opportunities falling a round short on several occasions. Despite his iffy health, he generally goes deep in tournaments and Slams. He got to the semifinals of Wimbledon, the semifinals of Toronto, and the quarterfinals of Cincinnati losing to Berdych, Federer, and Roddick, respectively. By and large, Djokovic usually only loses to players in the top 10. Sure, he had a loss to Malisse and a loss to Melzer and Krajinovic, but although those losses are a bit shocking, Djokovic doesn’t usually play poorly in Slams.
He has a pretty friendly draw. He starts out “tough” with Victor Troicki, but unless the heat gets to him, his head-to-head is strong against his fellow Serb. Then, maybe Petzschner who gave Nadal some trouble at Wimbledon, then maybe Juan Monaco? Djokovic, if he’s in form, should get to the fourth round to meet either Baghdatis or Fish and while they would likely give Djokovic a tough match, Djokovic would be favored against both of them.
Robin Soderling
We know this guy can play on hard courts. Perhaps the two players that played best in the first two Masters hard court events, Indian Wells and Miami, were Andy Roddick (won one, finalist in the other) was Robin Soderling who reached the semifinals of both losing to Roddick in one and Berdych in the other. Toronto and Cincinnati weren’t nearly as kind as he lost to a resurgent Nalbandian and a somewhat resurgent Andy Roddick. Even so, Soderling generally loses to top ranked guys and get reasonably deep in Slams, the Australian Open of this year, not withstanding.
He faces a qualifier in the first round, either Taylor Dent or Alejandro Falla in the second, either Thiemo de Bakker or Fernando Gonzalez in the third (or some qualifier). de Bakker is the player most in form, but it’s New Haven with a weakened field. Last year, Gonzo would have been a problem, but he’s coming off of injury, so he’s not expected to be in great form. Soderling may have one of the easier routes to the quarterfinals with no big threats. Cilic would be his biggest challenge, but he’d have to start playing good again, which is possible. It’s just that he hasn’t looked good in a while.
Andy Roddick
Ever since the French, Roddick has been good enough to win a few rounds, but not good enough to particularly deep. He has yet to win a tournament since the French Open.
He announced, during Toronto, a tournament he skipped because of his early loss to Gilles Simon in DC, that he had had mono, but that he was getting over it. He hadn’t had a super bad summer. He did reach the semis of Atlanta, losing to Mardy Fish in the semifinals. And, he lost to him in the semifinals of Cincinnati. But he skipped Los Angeles this year, which is a tournament he usually plays.
Form-wise, I think Roddick might be getting back into shape. There was a question of how fit he’d be, but he looked find in Cincinnati, and he’s had one more week to train. He looks good, but it’s matches like the Fish match that Roddick needs to be wary of.
Roddick’s draw looks good for the first three rounds. He might face Gael Monfils in the third round. Monfils hasn’t played great, but he did hit well against Nadal in the US Open last year. Monfils leads the head-to-head, but 3 of his wins are on clay, Roddick’s weakest surface. Monfils hasn’t had a great summer either. He lost to Murray in Toronto then to Falla in Cincy. His next challenge would be Davydenko if he can reach the fourth round. Davydenko might have to play, say Gasquet. Were Davydenko in January form, he’d be favored to meet Roddick. Right now, I’d say Roddick is playing better than Davydenko.
Nikolay Davydenko
Davydenko seems like one of these players that has to play his way into form. After breaking his wrist and noticing it in Indian Wells, Davydenko didn’t return to tour until Halle, just before Wimbledon, then had a series of mediocre results. He lost to Becker in Halle, Brands in Wimbledon, Gimeno-Traver in Stuttgart (on clay), Golubev at Hamburg, Chela in Umag, Chardy in Toronto, and finally Federer in Cincy where he had beaten Ferrer in the previous round. In Toronto, Davydenko was spraying shots everywhere, his normal precise shots misfiring. Presumably, he’d been struggling like this for about 2 months. However, by Cincy, Davydenko was starting to look more like his self. He’s not quite looking dominating like he did late last year and January, but he is at least keeping more balls in play.
The big question mark is whether he’s in good enough shape to make it deep at the US Open. He might meet Gasquet in the second round and he might face Kevin Anderson in the third round. His first real challenge would be Andy Roddick in the fourth round. Roddick is in better form than Davydenko now, as is Djokovic.
Not in Form
Rafael Nadal
Of course, this is blatantly unfair to Rafa. An out-of-form Rafa is still a very good player. He might be an in-form Verdasco. But the fact remains that Rafa hasn’t looked this bad in a while. He makes numerous errors. He is slicing back returns. He seems to have trouble handling the speed of the court. Of course, Rafa struggles on the hard courts because it’s the surface of choice for most players. But he never loses particularly early. To Rafa, losing in the quarterfinals is losing early. It’s rare he loses earlier than that.
He only played two events since Wimbledon: Toronto and Cincinnati. He reached the semifinals of Toronto and the quarterfinals of Cincy. He struggled against players he normally does well against including players like Kohlschreiber, Benneteau, and Wawrinka. The peculiar aspect is that he didn’t look much better in Cincy than he did in Toronto.
However, Rafa rebounds as well as any player, so he should eliminate some of the errors. Obviously, if he continues to play like he did in Cincy, he’ll lose early. He faces Gabashvili in the first round. Should be an easy win, but Gabashvili did play well at New Haven. Then, he might play Istomin in the second round. Istomin is in the finals of New Haven, so he might trouble Rafa. He has to get some rest however. Then, he might play Kohlschreiber again in the third round. All these players have a chance to make life tough for Rafa, but probably none of them can sustain the kind of hitting to pull the upset off.
There’s nobody particularly intimidating in the fourth round, though Rafa did lose to two players that could meet him there. He lost to Feliciano Lopez at Queen’s, but it seemed like a strategic loss (much like Baghdatis). He also lost to Ivan Ljubicic in Indian Wells, but Ljubicic seems to have taken a bit of a vacation since Indian Wells. It’s questionable whether Ljubicic will reach the fourth round to meet him. He’ll need to play inspired ball to get there. If he does, then there’s a chance he could trouble Nadal, but his current form suggest otherwise.
Fernando Verdasco
Speaking of Verdasco, here’s a guy in the top 10 that normally does well on hard courts. He’s had an indifferent summer, but his losses were to players that went deep, including losing to Baghdatis in DC (he reached the finals), to Chardy in Toronto (reached the quarters) and to Fish in Cincy (reached the finals). Many feel he burned himself out playing too much tennis in the clay season where he not only played all three Masters 1000 clay events (Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid) but additionally played Barcelona and Nice, and he went pretty deep in nearly every tournament.
Verdasco plays Fognini in the first round, but his biggest challenge if he gets past Fognini is Nalbandian in the third round. Verdasco might play inspired ball, but his form isn’t good heading in.
Wrap Up
Form doesn’t tell the entire story. Nadal and Djokovic were playing the best clay tennis heading into the French in 2009, but both had played too much and both lost early. And sometimes, even when you play hot, fate gives you a bad draw, like it did Mardy Fish and Marcos Baghdatis who are expected to meet in the 3rd round. It’s not really fair to either player who have had a great summer to have to play each other that soon.
So there you have it. The US Open starts on Monday!
