Quick note: Andy Murray is again in Rafael Nadal’s section of the draw. This is the third time this year that this has happened at a Slam. Murray was on Federer’s half of the draw at the French, but was eliminated before he could meet Federer.
We’ll go section by section each section is 16 players. Winners reach the quarterfinals.
Section 1
Nadal is the top seed. He opens up with Gabashvili. Gabashvili eliminated Roddick at the French. Nadal would meet the winner of Maximo Gonzalez and Denis Istomin. Oddly enough, Istomin and Gabashvili are meeting in the quarterfinals this evening at the Pilot Pen Classic in New Haven. So Nadal may be getting two players in good form. Even so, an off-Nadal should be able to handle both. Istomin gave Berdych some trouble at Wimbledon.
The next four are Gilles Simon taking on Donald Young and Tobias Kamke taking on Philipp Kohlschreiber. Young recently broke into the top 100 at 100. He’s a wildcard (would have had to qualify otherwise). Simon is trying to regain the form that put him in the top 10 back in 2008. Young did OK at New Haven, but he’s out already. The likely winner out of this group is Kohlschreiber. Nadal played Kohlschreiber recently and took Nadal to 3 sets.
In the remaining 8, you have Lopez who beat Nadal at Queen’s, Rainer Schuettler who was in the semifinals of Wimbledon against Nadal in 2008, and Ivan Ljubicic who beat Rafa in Indian Wells earlier this year. Although Ljubicic might seem to be the favorite, he’s not played well since Indian Wells. For example, he had a good head-to-head over Nalbandian, but when the two recently met, Nalbandian, who has been playing well lately, won. No particular favorite to come out of this eight.
Prediction: Nadal, but there are a few players that have given him trouble, notably Kohlschreiber, and to a lesser extent, Ljubicic.
Section 2
Top seeds in this section are Ferrer and Verdasco. Neither have played well on hard courts this year. Ferrer starts off with a doozy taking on up-and-comer Aleksandr Dolgopolov. Gulbis is seeded, but faces Jeremy Chardy who recently reached the quarterfinals of Toronto. Gulbis has his work cut out for him. Nalbandian is in the same section as Verdasco. If he plays as well as he has been, he might be favored to get out of Section 2.
Prediction: Nalbandian, but it’s somewhat wide open with Gulbis and Verdasco possibilities to move along. I’d love to see Nalbandian play Nadal.
Section 3
Murray is in the same top-half of Section 3 as Wawrinka. Wawrinka has not played all that well, having a few good wins, but a few lopsided losses. Lukas Lacko can be tough, but Murray’s draw is relatively friendly compared to Nadal’s draw.
In the bottom half of Section 3, Sam Querrey opens up against NCAA champ, Bradley Klahn. Presumably, an easy win for Querrey. A few solid Italians in Starace and Seppi in Sam’s section, plus hard hitting Almagro, who hasn’t played that well the past month or two.
Prediction: Murray. None of the players in this section are too problematic for Murray. Querrey did recently beat Murray in LA, but it will probably be a challenge to pull it off twice.
Section 4
Berdych and Youzhny are the top seeds here. Youzhny played well on clay and even late last year and early this year. Haven’t heard much lately. He opens up against a tough guy in Andrey Golubev. Dudi Sela opens up against Xavier Malisse who made a deep run in Atlanta. Jack Sock, a top American junior, opens up against Swiss number 3, Marco Chiudinelli. Berdych opens up with a whopper playing Michael Llodra who barely missed being seeded. He may face Hanescu in the second round. Stepanek opens up against Benneteau, which will be tough too, given their similar rankings. John Isner plays Frederico Gil who reached the finals of Estoril and almost became the first Portugeuse player to win an ATP event. Isner recently injured himself and it attempting to wing it at the US Open. Can’t imagine Isner will go too deep, but if he is 70%, he might go a few rounds.
Prediction: Berdycb, but this section is pretty tough especially for Berdych and Youzhny.
Section 5 (bottom half)
Davydenko and Roddick are the top seeds. Davydenko opens with American Michael Russell who will need to check with Tennis Express to be sure he has equipment. Davydenko might meet Richard Gasquet in the second round. Two college kids, Kevin Anderson and Somdev Devvarman meet in the first round. Roddick has mostly clay court types in his section. Monfils is the top seed and might prove a challenge. Roddick should get through to meet Monfils. Monfils is so up and down, it’s hard to say that he could beat Roddick. Roddick is perhaps thrilled to see no Americans in his section.
Prediction: Roddick. Davydenko is probably not yet in full form. He did reasonably well in Cincy, but will need to up his level. Davydenko has given Roddick trouble in the past, but Roddick is in better form than Davydenko right now. I would not have said the same thing in January.
Section 6
Baghdatis opens with tour veteran, Arnaud Clement. Fish is in the top half with him. This could be a tough matchup should they meet each other. Both have been playing pretty well heading into the US Open with Baghdatis being the DC finalist and reaching the semifinals in Cincy.
In the bottom half of Section 6, Djokovic meets Serbian number 2, Victor Troicki. They just met in Cincy with Djokovic winning in straight sets. Troicki, who is still in New Haven, must be bummed as a lucky draw might have him going a few rounds. Petzschner is probably the tough guy in Djokovic’s bottom half. He would be expected to meet Fish or Baghdatis in the fourth round.
Prediction: Djokovic. It’s tough that Fish and Baghdatis could meet in the third round. I’d probably pick Fish to meet Djokovic. Djokovic should get to the fourth round before his first tough match.
Section 7
Soderling and Cilic are in this section. Cilic has played very up-and-down sometimes losing early. Soderling hasn’t played that well so far, but he’s probably the most in form. Thiemo de Bakker and Evgeny Korolev are in this section and just met each other in New Haven (de Bakker won). Fernando Gonzalez and Albert Montanes are the other two seeds. Gonzalez has played minimally the last few months, and is having a very down 2010 compared to a solid 2009. This section is one of the easier sections, but it has no strong contenders in terms of recent performance.
Prediction: Soderling. Cilic might play inspired ball, but he hasn’t lately.
Section 8
Federer again has a pretty sweet draw. The seeds are all as old has him. Jurgen Melzer, Lleyton Hewitt, and Juan Carlos Ferrero. These are all players around Federer’s age. Hewitt is the only one who has beaten Federer recently at Halle. But Federer has gaudy records against all of them (I think he’s only played Melzer the one time at Wimbledon this year, an easy win). Federer should be able to cruise to the quarterfinals.
Overall impressions
Of the top 4 seeds, the toughest draw belongs to Djokovic, and really, only when he gets to the fourth round where he might meet Baghdatis or Fish. Then, Nadal, who has a bunch of good players in his section, though no one he couldn’t handle. Then, Murray, and finally Federer. Federer tends to get pretty good draws at Slams.
The toughest section is the one with Novak Djokovic, then maybe Davydenko or Berdych having some tough opponents in the early rounds. The Verdasco-Ferrer section (section 2) is also filled with dangerous players including Nalbandian, Dolgopolov, Chardy and Gulbis. Neither Verdasco nor Ferrer are so strong that they can get out of this section comfortably, so it’s the one that is open to a player like Nalbandian or Gulbis making a deep run.
