Let’s rewind back to Wimbledon which was where the men were playing before the US Open Series began.  Rafael Nadal had endured two five-setters, then beat Robin Soderling (again) and then beat Tomas Berdych in the final.  Oh yes, he beat Brit hopeful, Andy Murray once again.  Rafa had been playing more aggressive tennis, trying to step in more, and he was finding great success.

He accomplished the French-Wimbledon double for the second time, and it was the third year in a row the rare feat was done (Nadal in 2008, Fed in 2009, and Nadal again in 2010).  Until then, Bjorn Borg was the only one that had done the double (and he did in three consecutive years).

When Nadal won Wimbledon, and when Federer lost in the quarterfinals (again!) to Berdych (he lost to Soderling in the quarters of the French), everyone kinda said Federer was done.  He couldn’t keep the ball in play enough, and hard hitting players like Soderling and Berdych were ready to pass him by.  Remember many predicted that Roger couldn’t reach number 1 again (even if he wins the US Open, it will be tough because Rafa does so well at Masters 1000 events).

And then?

Weeks passed.  Roger rested.  Rafa rested.  Djokovic rested.  Murray mostly rested.  Except for Murray, the top guys spent about a month not playing.  Toronto was the first tournament back for best players.  Murray had taken a last-minute wildcard to LA when Djokovic dropped out.  He had planned to play LA, but didn’t.

Then, they all came back.  Roger looked, well, at least a lot better moving around the court than he had.  Maybe not quite to Australian Open standards, but not that far either.  Roger was attacking more, perhaps courtesy of Paul Annacone.  Maybe he felt that taking chances at the net would lead to shorter points.

And Rafa?  We know Rafa generally struggles on hard courts, but usually, Rafa has played solid tennis from Australia to Wimbledon and his body is starting to break down.  Meanwhile, there are many players that excel on hard courts from Djokovic to Murray to Davydenko.  Rafa broke down earlier than usual last year.  He lost to Soderling at the French and then didn’t play again until Montreal, taking a huge break.  He said that he wasn’t 100% so any losses should be expected.  He lost to del Potro in the quarters of the Rogers Cup and then to Djokovic in the semifinals of Cincinnati.  And this was with an abdominal injury that wasn’t revealed until the US Open.

This year, Rafa was able to play the French and Wimbledon since he took off a great deal of time between the Australian Open and Indian Wells.  But he took about a month off after Wimbledon which he normally does.  You have to go back to 2007 to find Rafa playing a post-Wimbledon match before the Rogers Cup, and then, Rafa would play clay usually Stuttgart and sometimes Bastad.   Rafa basically avoids the early hard court tournaments (Los Angeles, Indianapolis/Atlanta, Washington DC).

But this year, Rafa looked a lot shakier than usual.  At the French and at Wimbledon, Rafa was much steadier than either Toronto or Cincy where his unusual number of unforced errors let players like Philipp Kohlschreiber, Julien Benneteau, and Marcos Baghdatis take a set off him.  Rafa had shown he was vulnerable on the hard courts prior to the clay court swing.  He had lost to Ljubicic at Indian Wells and Andy Roddick in Miami.  Indeed, until Monte Carlo, he had not won a title since Rome the previous year.  But with a dominant clay court performance (3 Masters 1000 titles and the French Open) plus a win at Wimbledon, everyone was saying Rafa might take the US Open.

And yet, he’s looked surprisingly unsteady.  Why?  Not clear.  Even so, consider last year.  Rafa was even in worse shape and yet, he reached the quarters of one Masters 1000 event and the semis of another.  What did he do this year?  Reach the semis of one Masters 1000 event (Toronto) and the quarters of another (Cincy).  Rafa has also reached the semifinals of the last two US Opens.  There are those ready to write off Rafa saying he’ll lose in an early round despite Rafa being one of the best competitors out there.

And Roger?  He blamed his losses at the French and Wimbledon to a bad back and legs.  He said he needed the rest, and he’d be back to his normal self.  Many, including Tomas Berdych, felt Roger was making excuses.  The reality is that many players deal with injuries all the time.  Few players are truly 100%.  Maybe they have blisters or a chronic injury.  Murray has had issues with his knees.  He deals.  Rafa has problems with his feet.  He deals.  Even the supposedly healthy Federer probably manages some pain here and there.  It’s not like he’d tell us.

Roger claimed 10 days of rest and he was feeling good again.  During the same time, Rafa was supposedly getting additional work on his knees.  But for whatever reason, Roger looked sharper than he had in a while and Rafa looked like he was misfiring, making a lot of unforced errors.  Roger hasn’t looked dominant in a long, long time, but he finds ways to win.  He struggled with his return game against Baghdatis and Fish, but won those matches.  He really struggled against Berdych, but won.

Although Roger won Cincy and reached the finals of Toronto, he’s not dominating like he has in the past.  He’s pulling out close matches.  Still, many observers seem to only care about his results, not about how close they were.  Berdych has struggled with mental toughness in matches.  To be fair, Roger pressured Berdych in the game he broke him in the third set of the quarterfinals at Toronto.  But he played high risk tennis that hadn’t been altogether successful until that game.  Roger will point to two things.  Overall, he’s held serve much better than before.  And, he has had chances to break, even as he plays loose points that prevent him from getting that break.

So, two months after Wimbledon, everyone’s opinion has changed.  Rafael Nadal looked unbeatable and now everyone says he’ll lose early at the US Open.  Roger Federer looked like he was in decline, and everyone says he’s favored to win the US Open.  While this is true right now, the US Open is a different beast.

And people are also pointing at Murray to win his first Slam or Djokovic to fall short, despite past experience showing that Djokovic has a reasonably good chance of going really deep at the Open.

Another week, and we’ll see!