Mardy Fish’s run to the final means he is now in the top 25. Indeed, 4 American men are in the top 25, though 3 of the 4 are very close to 25. In particular, John Isner is 20, Mardy Fish is 21, and Sam Querrey is 22. Marcos Baghdatis moved up to 18 in the world with his semifinal win.
This rankings lists is important because it will be used to determine the seeds for the US Open. Although there is one more week before the US Open and one last tournament (New Haven), that tournament won’t count for the seeding. That’s because the finals for New Haven will be played on Sunday while the draw will be released this Thursday. This meant that Cincinnati was vitally important to Roger Federer who needed to reach the finals to maintain his lead over Djokovic at number 2 in the world.
Andy Roddick moved back into the top 10, though really, players ranked 9, 10, 11, 12 (which is Andy Roddick, Juan Martin del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and David Ferrer) are only separated by 200 points. del Potro’s rank is about to take a huge hit when he skips the US Open during his recovery. He will lose 2000 points and drop to about 40 in the world when that happens. Even Tsonga is questionable to play the US Open. He hasn’t played since suffering an injury at Wimbledon.
New Haven is the last tournament before the US Open. Fernando Verdasco is defending champ, but is not playing this week. As such, he will lose 250 points. However, one of his other results will substitute which is worth 150 points and he will only lose a net of 100 points. This will leave him marginally ahead of Andy Roddick. Had he lost 250 points, he would move behind Andy Roddick and Roddick would be number 8 (though not in time for the US Open).
Everyone wonders how Novak Djokovic is 2 or 3 in the world. Here are the reasons. Djokovic has reached the quarterfinals or better of 6 Masters 1000 events, and of the 6, he has 3 semifinals and he’s won one (Paris Indoors). Furthermore, he has 3 wins at ATP 500 events including defending Dubai earlier in the year and winning Basel and Beijing. Djokovic had won more matches than anyone last year, based on great results on clay and great results from the US Open onwards. Djokovic has done no worse than the quarterfinals in any Slam, having 2 semifinal apperances and 2 quarterfinal apperances in the last 4 Slams. So, although Djokovic has won only 1 title this year (Dubai), he has a bunch of results after the US Open (Basel, Beijing).
Meanwhile, Murray, who had won 6 titles last year, has only won 1 title this year. In Masters 1000 events, he has only 4 tournaments that he has reached the quarterfinals or better (and one win) compared to 6 for Djokovic. Djokovic has one huge advantage over Murray in this respect. Djokovic is a very good clay court player and yet plays well on all surfaces. Murray does well on grass and hard courts, but has indifferent results on clay.
Murray only has one ATP 500 win compared to Djokovic’s three wins. To be fair, both Djokovic and Murray had a better 2009 than 2010, but many of Murray’s results have already fallen off the books while Djokovic still has some late season results that is helping him keep his number 3 ranking.
Murray was, in fact, in danger of falling to number 5 behind Robin Soderling if he had not done well in Toronto. Soderling’s style may not be very flexible, but he usually reaches the quarterfinals or better of most tournaments he plays, including Masters 1000 events. He has two semifinal and two quarterfinal results, but he has 3 “oct-finals” in addition. These results are the kind Querrey wants. Querrey is the king of ATP 250 events where the field is just weak enough that he takes advantage.
Let’s quickly look at the top 10 heading into the Open.
Rafael Nadal
Rafa took a break after Wimbledon and returned to play at Toronto. This was a break most of the top players usually take, including Federer and Djokovic. Of the top 4, Rafa’s form looked a bit shaky, more than usual. Rafa normally plays more aggressively on hard courts, but he was making an unusual number of unforced errors, which meant some matches were going to 3 sets that might not have in the past. Rafa is more vulnerable to more players on hard courts than any other surface. Still, Rafa’s errors seem higher than in the past, and he has reached the US Open semis two years in a row, and consider that he had taken an even longer break last year and had an abdominal injury. I have to believe that one more week of practice will get Rafa into a better place and that best of 5 sets will help him through more matches (plus rest between rounds).
Roger Federer
Everyone said that Roger Federer was done for. He lost in the quarters of the French and the quarters of the US Open. He said he was injured. Roger Federer had a great one-two, reaching the finals of Toronto and defending Cincy. Federer’s return has resulted in two things: better court movement and better holds of serve. Roger relies on holding serve reliably since he’s not the kind of guy that breaks serve a lot unless he zones out. He’s not at the extreme that Sampras is where he’d gamble on one game a set and rely on opponents being unable to break him.
Although one could argue that Federer is back, he’s not been fantastic on return games. He also nearly lost to Tomas Berdych being a break down in the third set. Djokovic also had his chances against Federer in Toronto despite an awful first set. I think Roger believes that he can deal with the close wins and that his experience will carry him through. It’s happened a lot in the past. The key for Roger, as always, is holding serve. He did a pretty good job of that in the Cincy finals and it’s what he needs to do to give himself the best chance to win. Ideally, he needs to cut his errors on return games and make his opponents work more.
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic might be a solid number 2 in the world had he been blessed with perfect health. The man plays well on all surfaces. He should have reached the semifinals of the Australian Open and French Open, but faded badly in both quarterfinals. And, yet, yet, he reached quarterfinals. It’s hard to fault someone who “underperforms” by reaching quarterfinals. Andy Murray only wishes he could reach the French quarterfinals and be blamed for underperforming.
Djokovic generally plays well in Slams and generally is good to the quarterfinals. He can beat pretty much everyone including Federer and Nadal, and yet, he can lose to players he shouldn’t. He’s tinkered with his serve which has lead to an unusual stat: he averages more double faults than aces. Indeed, one thing you learn about pros: it’s hard to change a part of your game, especially the serve. Maria Sharapova struggled changing her serve motion and it lead to a lot of double faults. She’s finally serving better. Djokovic appears to be going back to his old style. Unlike Tiger Woods who plays golf and can take a year to tinker with his game, most tennis players had much shorter careers and can’t afford to make changes that don’t work (Mardy Fish revamped his forehand as did Andy Roddick–even Roger Federer’s forehand has gotten spinnier over the years).
Andy Murray
Hardcourts are Murray’s favorite surface. In the past, Murray has often done well because he returns exceptionally well. Although Murray has been vulnerable to big hitters like Verdasco, Gonzalez, and such, he’s also had good results. For example, Murray has pretty good results against del Potro who has given Nadal and Federer trouble. However, because Murray doesn’t pound the ball, he can sometimes be overpowered. Last year, he lost quite quickly to Marin Cilic and was disappointed despite a relatively good lead-up to the US Open.
The one unusual concern for Murray was his loss in Cincinnati. He looked positively dazed against Gulbis, but he got the win in the end. He didn’t look much better against Mardy Fish, but he still got to a third set tiebreak. So, perhaps all his wincing was a bit of a ruse. It’s not that Murray isn’t hurt, but that he can certainly work his way through pain as many athletes do. Players like Rafa often have injuries (say, blisters on feet) that they block out and continue to win.
The one issue is that other players play well on hard courts including Berdych and Djokovic and even Cilic. Murray had a very nice draw at Wimbledon which got him to the semifinals. Although Murray is certainly capable of going deep at the US Open, he can be vulnerable (as most players) to a hot hard-hitting player (to be fair, true of most players).
Robin Soderling
Soderling has the kind of game that beats a lot of players. He lacks a huge amount of versatility. He doesn’t drop shot like Federer, Murray, or Djokovic. But what he does, he generally does well at Slams. He had a puzzling first round loss at the Australian Open, but by and large, Soderling gets to the round he is supposed to. Last year, this meant a healthy dose of Federer. He lost to Federer at the French, at Wimbledon, and at the US Open. This year, it’s meant a healthy dose of Nadal. He lost to Nadal at the French and at Wimbledon. Soderling is potentially vulnerable to players like Federer, Nadal, Berdych, Roddick, and Djokovic. In other words, he can struggle against players in the top 10, which is just as he should.
Nikolay Davydenko
Perhaps the best active player to have never reached a Slam final. Davydenko peaked last year after the US Open right until the Australian Open. He put a huge scare in Roger Federer, before succumbing to the Swiss maestro. But then he broke his (left) wrist, dropped out of Indian Wells (after beating Gulbis in the first round) and didn’t return until just before Wimbledon. His play has been shaky for over a month. The traditional precision play of Davydenko went wonky. He is finally getting close to where he should be, but he is still short of that. Last year, he lost to Soderling at the US Open. Soderling still gives Davydenko problems. If he has a favorable draw, he might be able to go deep. He is now just behind Soderling, so this means they two wouldn’t meet until the semifinals (seeds 5-8 can’t meet one another until the semifinals, and requires upsetting seeds 1-4 to reach there).
Still, Davydenko isn’t quite at his best form, but it may be good enough to make it through reasonably deep.
Tomas Berdych
Despite Berdych’s effort power style, he’s been more vulnerable to upsets than almost any other top 10 player. Even so, he’s a very dangerous player. Berdych peaked at the French and Wimbledon playing superlative tennis for two consecutive Slams. He very nearly beat Roger Federer a third time. He lost to Malisse in DC, to Federer in Toronto, and to Baghdatis in Cincy. Last year, he lost to Fernando Gonzalez, who had a great 2009, but a dismal 2010.
Hard to say where his form is. It seems, not as good as it was two months ago. Still, not that bad.
Fernando Verdasco
Verdasco had a great clay season, but he played so many clay events that he seems to have overplayed by the French. He lost to Almagro. He might have won had he not played so much. He then lost to Fognini in the first round of Wimbledon, then to Robredo at Bastad on clay in the quarterfinals, then to Baghdatis in the quarters of DC, and to Chardy in Toronto and to Fish in Cincy. Verdasco should get through some of the early rounds at the Open since there are weaker players in the early rounds, but he’s certainly not entering the Open with a lot of good wins.
Andy Roddick
Andy finally reported he had a mild bout of mono. He lost early in DC to Gilles Simon, a good player, but still not back to his 2008 form. He took off a week during Toronto to train and then reached the semifinals of Cincy. He’s probably not 100% entering the Open, but he has to feel good that he’s starting to play better again. I think the key for Roddick is to avoid other Americans, who he seems to be vulnerable to.
Outside the Top Ten
The three hot players outside the top 10 are Marcos Baghdatis who reached the finals of DC and the semifinals of Cincy, David Nalbandian who won DC and reached the quarters of Toronto, and Mardy Fish who reached the finals of Cincy in addition to winning Newport and Atlanta. Sam Querrey would be the only other guy that seems to be playing well, but again, underperformed in Toronto and Cincy. Jeremy Chardy played well in Toronto.
It’s unclear whether Isner can play the US Open or how far he can go, otherwise, he might be expected to go a few rounds. Ernests Gulbis is also a name people point to, a dangerous player that has still not been able to break through. He’s kind of the Tomas Berdych from a few years ago.
