It’s less than a week before the draw for the US Open comes out and the last Slam of the year is ready for action.

We’ll do a preview based on the form of various players based on the weeks heading up to the US Open.  Keep in mind that there’s usually a surprise or two at the Open, at least, based on form.

Heading into the US Open, the two players that are most in form are Roger Federer, last year’s finalist, and Andy Murray.  They’re not in unbeatable form, however.  Roger Federer nearly lost for the third time against Tomas Berdych and had to break him as he was serving for the match in Toronto.  Federer’s not known as the best breaker in the business, but he managed to break when he had to.  Federer got a bit lucky at Cincinnati.

He played his opening round against Istomin, had an early break, and then Istomin retired with an ankle problem.  Philipp Kohlschreiber dropped out before playing Roger Federer.  Fed said this was a rarity.  He says he’s only had a handful of players drop out before playing the match.  Federer also played a somewhat out-of-form Davydenko.  Davydenko looked better at Cincy than he has since he returned to tour.  It seems Davydenko needs a lot of time to return back to form.  A similar thing happened last year when Davydenko returned to match play in the clay season and didn’t play his best tennis until after the US Open.  Apparently, Federer’s mental edge over Davydenko continues to distress Davydenko as it did when Fed used to dominate Davydenko.

Federer had a pretty comfortable win over Baghdatis.  Federer wasn’t playing spectacularly well mostly because Baghdatis had to do a fair bit of work to beat Nadal.  He came out flat against Fed.  Fed played just well enough to beat Baghdatis comfortably.  And, in the finals, instead of meeting Djokovic or Murray or even Roddick, he faces Mardy Fish.  Fish is playing pretty solid tennis, so this will be interesting final to see.

Federer is hitting better than he had been.  The rest he took after Wimbledon seems to have helped his movement, and he’s able to get into longer rallies than prior to Wimbledon where he seemed to go for big shots early in rallies.  Fed, being Fed, still piles up the unforced errors, but at least he’s striking his backhand better and moving better.  Still, it’s arguable that Fed played better winning Cincy last year when he beat Murray and Djokovic back-to-back.

The other player playing well is Andy Murray.  Murray finally won a title this year in Toronto and beat both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the same tournament, the first time he’s ever done this.  He defended the Rogers Cup.  However, last year, he went into Cincy and reached the semis where he lost to Roger.  Murray had struggled in his win over Gulbis resorting to spinning his first serve to Gulbis wouldn’t pound his second serve so often.  He also looked a bit flat against Mardy Fish, but did manage to get to a third set tiebreak before losing to Fish for the third time this year.  It seemed Murray was conflicted whether he wanted to win or lose, and certainly wasn’t in the best shape to win this tournament.  Murray typically is scheduled around noon so they can show his matches live in the UK, but it’s often played in heat, and although Murray has trained well in heat, he wants an evening match here or there.

One imagines Murray will take a few days to rest and train some more.  The US Open is friendlier to the pros.  Although everyone plays five sets, the first few rounds are usually manageable and there is usually a day of rest between rounds.  In a Masters 1000, players will often play 4 days in a row (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) to win a title.

One surprise has been Rafael Nadal.  Nadal generally struggles on hard courts.  It’s been a problem he’s had for years.  It’s not so much that he’s bad on hard courts but that so many other players play well on hard courts.  Big serves seem to trouble Nadal more and opponents are able to take big swipes against Rafa and have success.

At Toronto and at Cincy, Rafa has struggled with consistency.  The same Rafa that couldn’t miss a ball when Soderling pounded balls against him in Paris has found himself spraying balls long and wide.  And yet, since Rafa is so good, he still often gets deep into tournaments.  Everyone who plays him plays hyper-aggressive, often to their detriment, and they make way too many errors.

Rafa was taken to three sets by Kohlschreiber in Toronto, and nearly lost a set to Wawrinka.  He was also pushed to a second set tiebreak by Kevin Anderson after an easy first set.  Rafa was pushed to three sets by Julien Benneteau and Marcos Baghdatis (he lost to Marcos).  The formula for beating Rafa on hard courts is typically to serve well against Rafa.  Andy Roddick and Ivan Ljubicic beat Rafa by serving well and holding serve.  The other part is to play aggressive without missing too much and then hope that Rafa is misfiring, which happens more on hard courts since Rafa is given a fraction less time to react.

Despite his inconsistency, one expects Rafa to elevate his play some by the US Open.  Last year, he had an abdominal issue which may have hurt his chances against del Potro and explain his relatively easy loss.  There may be some physical issue, but so far, other than inconsistency playing, there isn’t other obvious evidence that he is injured.

Novak Djokovic is the odd one.  He’s played good tennis, but not outstanding tennis.  Despite never threatening to win a Slam last year, Djokovic did win a lot of tournaments, comparable to Andy Murray.  Both Murray and Djokovic have struggled to win tournaments.  Both have won one tournament this year.  However, Djokovic has been more consistent in the Slams reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and French Open and reaching the semifinals of Wimbledon.  By all rights, Djokovic should have reached the semifinals of the Australian and French Open, but his fitness issues have been troubling causing him to lose earlier than expected in both tournaments.

Djokovic struggled in the heat at Toronto, but was given a nice schedule of evening matches.  He also struggled some at Cincy and eventually played a poor match against Roddick.  He’s clearly talented enough to go deep in the US Open.  He’s reached the semifinals the last two years and the finals the year before.  It’s one of his favorite tournaments, and yet his health issues have seemingly gotten a bit worse over time rather than better.  Plus, he’s had issues with his serve that he is slowly resolving.  When Djokovic finally calls it quits, he may be one of those players that people ask “what if”, but unlike Safin, it won’t be his temperament, but his health that has contributed to his lack of big success.

Let’s get to the four Americans.  Earlier this year, Sam Querrey abruptly left the French Open after losing his opening round to Robby Ginepri, heading back to California after claiming he was burned out due to an extensive European run.  Querrey had even won Belgrade, but was bummed that it didn’t affect his ranking, mostly because Querrey has been outstanding at ATP 250 events, but has struggled at ATP 500, Masters 1000, and Slams.  Querrey continued this trend losing Kevin Anderson in the second round of Toronto and to Ferrer in the second round of Cincy.

John Isner skipped Toronto this year to rest in North Carolina.  He came to Cincy, but tweaked an ankle against David Nalbandian, and he was up a break before retiring.  Isner says he’ll be back for the US Open.  He’s a big question mark for the Open.  One wonders if he’s still recovered from that marathon match against Mahut.  The one plus for Isner is that he’s a very good competitor and often wins close matches.  Still, neither he nor Querrey look great heading into the US Open.  Querrey did win Los Angeles and beat Andy Murray, so that was a plus but Querrey played better last year heading into the US Open.  That summer was Querrey’s breakout summer.

Andy Roddick had a great hard court season at Indian Wells and Miami, but then he skipped all the clay court Masters events.  He had intended to play Madrid, but got sick, and then lost to Gabashvili on his least favorite surface.  But his indifferent play lead to an early loss at Queen’s to Dudi Sela, then lost in five sets to Yen-Hsun Lu in the fourth round of Wimbledon, and then a loss in the semifinals of Atlanta to Mardy Fish and an early loss to Gilles Simon in DC.

Roddick was worried about his health.  He had been fatigued during practices and skipped a number of them.  Doctors finally diagnosed Roddick with a mild case of mono and said he was mostly over it.  Both Roddick and Mardy Fish trained in Texas during the week of Toronto.  Roddick chose to skip Toronto because of health issues which he felt contributed to his loss in DC.  The good news for Roddick is that he looked pretty good at Cincinnati.  He needs to get his head straight, but health-wise, he seemed fine, so he may be poised to make a decent US Open run.

Perhaps the hottest American heading into the US Open is Mardy Fish.  Much like his buddy, James Blake, Fish’s rank had plummeted to about 100 around March of this year mostly because he took time off-court due to an injury.  Unlike Blake, Fish has worked his ranking back up.  On the advice of Andy Roddick, Fish lost about 30 pounds, mostly through eating healthier food.  The result of losing weight meant he could train a lot longer than he used to, and he feels this is the main reason he’s been able to have success.

Fish will finish in the top 25 if he loses to Roger Federer and will reach 20 if he beats Roger Federer.

The other big surprise this summer was David Nalbandian.  Nalbandian had been injured and, up to a few weeks ago, his best results had been in Davis Cup.  Prior to DC, Nalbandian got Argentina passed Russia in Russia, beating Davydenko and Youzhny.  He had to do this without del Potro who has not played since Australia.  Nalbandian even skipped Wimbledon to give himself a chance in Davis Cup.

Nalbandian played a great tournament at DC beating Wawrinka, Simon, Cilic, and Baghdatis to win the title.  Nalbandian was using his exceptional return game to beat players.  He reached the quarterfinals at Toronto and lost easily to Andy Murray, perhaps a result of Nalbandian being tired.  He lost in the third round at Cincy to Djokovic.  So Nalbandian looks in good form, having only lost to the best players.

Marcos Baghdatis has also played well.  He was a finalist at DC, losing to David Nalbandian.  He lost early to Jeremy Chardy at Toronto, perhaps a bit of a hangover effect from DC or that Chardy was just playing well (he had a deep run at Toronto).  He reached the semifinals of Cincy after beating Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal along the way.

How about players that might do well, but didn’t have an outstanding hard court tuneup?  Tomas Berdych had great runs at the French and Wimbledon.  He beat Roger Federer twice this year.  He nearly beat him in Toronto.  He did lose to Marcos Baghdatis in Cincy.  Berdych has historically underperformed in Slams.  Until this year, he’s only been past the fourth round once, and he’s been on tour since 2003.  Still, he’s got the kind of talent to go deep at the US Open.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the top players is Marin Cilic.  Last year, he took a set from eventual champion Juan Martin del Potro and had beaten Andy Murray in the round before.  He reached the Australian Open semifinals.  Everyone felt that he was a more mobile del Potro.  But since then, his record has been abysmal.  He did win Zagreb, get to the finals of Munich on clay, and the semifinals of DC, but lost in the first round at Toronto and the first round at Cincy (admittedly, to Baghdatis) and lost in the first round back at Wimbledon (not his favorite surface).  He’s played up and down this entire year, so there is a chance he could put it together and go a few rounds in the US Open.

The Spaniards haven’t played real well.  Verdasco, Ferrer, Almagro have not done all that well.  All three did pretty well on clay.  They should all have decent chances on faster surfaces, but many of the Spaniards lost early at Wimbledon, and have had indifferent hard court seasons.  Verdasco has historically played well on hard courts, even winning last year at New Haven over Sam Querrey.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who might be considered a guy that could go deep at the US Open, hasn’t played since Wimbledon where he got injured.  Gael Monfils has played indifferently as well.  He lost to Andy Murray in the third round at Toronto, but only played Davis Cup and Stuttgart (on clay) since Wimbledon.  Monfils is not playing Cincy this week.  Both he and Tsonga have shown some affinity for injuries especially with Monfils diving on every surface including hard courts.

Last year, Andy Murray had won Montreal, and many thought he’d go deep.  Rafael Nadal was coming back from a long hiatus after the French and had played OK at Montreal and Cincy.  del Potro got to the finals of Montreal, but due to the heat, he skipped Cincy.  Roger Federer won Cincy.  Andy Roddick reached the semis at Montreal, but lost to Querrey in Cincy in the second round.  Both Andy’s had a less than stellar US Open with Roddick losing to Isner and Murray losing to Cilic.  Nadal did better than expected getting to the semifinals for a second year in a row.

Two other players that might make some noise.  Robin Soderling lost to Roddick in Cincy in a tight match and to Nalbandian in a close match as well.  Soderling has been a touch unlucky.  He’s not playing superlative tennis right now, but he hits hard enough to potentially make a reasonable run at the US Open.

Nikolay Davydenko is finding some form, finally.  The win over David Ferrer was helpful because Ferrer is the kind of guy that makes you hit lots of balls.  Still, he’s not at peak form, at least, not like he was playing back in January.  Even so, if he continues to make progress, he may make it tough for some players.

So, surprisingly, Federer, who many felt was down and out, is looking good again, partly because some of his competition (Nadal, Djokovic, Berdych) don’t look nearly as good as they’ve looked earlier in the year.  Andy Murray is looking decent.  The main concern is his knee.  Is it bothering him more than usual?  It’s apparently been a physical problem he’s had for a while, much like Agassi had some issues with his back.  Federer got a nice break by not having to play two matches, so he may be fresher than usual heading into the Open.

I expect Nadal to look better as well.  I can’t imagine he’ll look this poor at the US Open, unless he admits to some physical problem (which he took time off after Wimbledon to address).  I think his concern was playing too much heading into the Open, and he may have strategically lost to avoid the problem this year.

I don’t think anyone is going into the Open looking super dominant.  Federer’s looking the best, by form, but if he loses to Fish in the Cincy finals, it’ll feel a bit odd.  He’ll feel much better if he wins the tournament heading into the Open.