Now that Super Monday is over, let’s look at the upcoming quarterfinals.
Federer vs. Berdych
This is a tough one to call. Federer doesn’t always need great opponents to play great. For example, playing Clement was a great way for him to hit a lot of balls without a lot of fear that he would lose. Melzer doesn’t hit particularly hard, but he does try to be aggressive, and again, that match turned out to be good for Roger to hit with confidence and apparently not feel too bad.
Berdych is going through the draw relatively comfortably. He had a much easier time at the French. At Wimbledon, he’s dropped a few sets. He was pushed to 5 sets with Istomin and Brands almost took a 2 sets to 1 lead against Berdych before he broke twice to take the third set and then wrap it in four sets.
Berdych was one of those guys that people thought might make it big. He’s been on the tour for a while. One trivia question is who Roger Federer lost at the 2004 Olympics to, and that would be Berdych, who was 18 at the time and ranked about 74.
Federer has an 8-2 record over Berdych, but Berdych did beat him the last time they met, back in Miami. Federer had a match point but failed to close it out. I think Federer is going to feel that if he gets on top of Berdych early, things will go fine. Berdych is dangerous because he’s quick and he hits hard. This is the second straight Slam that Berdych has gone deep. And he once gave trouble to Federer at the 2009 Australian Open, pushing him to 5 sets.
Federer knows how to play Berdych, and they played recently. I don’t think Berdych has done anything particularly new to his game other than start to play more consistently.
I’d still favor Federer in 4 sets, and he could even win in straights. He’s feeling pretty confident now, so it’s a matter of keeping that up.
As far as form goes, Federer is in pretty good shape, but has yet to play a really good top player. He’s played some pretty good nobodies that probably got Federer at a good time.
Djokovic vs. Lu
Although Lu has played Roddick a fair number of times, Lu has never played Djokovic. Lu surprised Roddick with his serve, which he hit harder than usual. Roddick claimed that Lu did better at Wimbledon because he likes to hit balls waist height and Roddick has having trouble directing balls higher up. Indeed, Lu was often getting the better of rallies against Roddick. Normally, you see Roddick engaged in fairly long rallies on hard courts and he tends to win those. These rallies were much shorter than that. Roddick complained that he was playing awful and having a hard time keeping the ball in play.
Djokovic, by contrast, is a more varied groundstroker. He moves the ball around very well. He can hit down the line on both sides, and he probes around for weaknesses. I’m guessing, with the five setter that Lu just went through, and the excitement of pulling his biggest upset since beating Murray at the 2008 Olympics, he’s going to be less than ready for Djokovic.
Djokovic was having himself a pretty good match against Hewitt. He had played two close sets, and won it late in both sets. But then, he ran into an ailment–a stomach issue, he claimed–and that caused him to play poorly for about a set where he nearly got broken 3 times in a row. Hewitt was feeling good. But then, when the medicine he took kicked in, Djokovic started off with a break. He gave that break back, but they played even. By 4-all, Hewitt, who looked like he’d hold comfortably, made quite a few errors, including a double fault to give the break to Djokovic, and Djokovic seized the opportunity to close in 4.
Lu’s best chance, I’d imagine, is hoping Djokovic isn’t feeling well. Djokovic started off poorly in the first round, but each round he’s looked better and better. Despite the hiccup against Hewitt, he beat a guy that many people picked to upset Djokovic, mostly because they felt Djokovic would choke it away (which he doesn’t really do–he just gets fatigued/ill).
I thought Roddick should have beaten Lu in straights. Despite Lu’s tremendous performance, I think Djokovic’s skill off the ground and his return game will be too much for Lu. Djokovic moves the ball around better and returns better than Roddick. Djokovic ought to have a comfortable route to the semifinals.
Tsonga vs. Murray
Andy Murray came into Wimbledon without a lot of momentum. It’s not that he was playing so poorly, but he seemed to be far from playing his best. Perhaps the lowest moment occurred sometime during Miami and then Monte Carlo where he lost early in both tournaments. A re-dedication to training helped him do all right on clay, still his weakest surface. This training appears to have reaped some benefit on grass.
Murray appears to have spent a lot of his training efforts during the clay season trying to hit the ball harder and end the points sooner. This is something that he used to do much less of, but as players learn how to play Murray (being more aggressive), Murray has had to counter.
Murray had a pretty easy opening two rounds. Honestly, even his third round match against Gilles Simon could have been tougher had Simon been fully healthy instead of returning from injury. Even so, Murray seemed to build confidence from beating these players in straight sets. Murray’s first challenge was expected to be Sam Querrey, and Querrey did pose problems for Murray.
Murray looked as if he’d win the first set handily, but found himself broken by Querrey as he served for the set, then he fell 0-40 behind on his own serve, but scrapped to win this game. You know Murray is playing well when he gets into break point situations and manages to get himself out. Indeed, Querrey apparently had break opportunities right out of the gate, but again held. Sure, it’s bad that Murray gets himself into these situations, but it shows that he’s starting to play good tennis again.
Tsonga has started to become a guy that progresses deep into tournaments, well, at least to quarterfinals and such. Tsonga hasn’t had the smoothest road so far. He needed four sets to beat Kendrick in the opening round, then Dolgopolov pushed him to 5 sets in the second round, then he had a comfortable win over Kamke, and beat countryman Benneteau in four sets, in a match he felt he didn’t play so well.
Murray has played Tsonga 3 times, and leads 2-1. His most famous loss was in the first round of the 2008 Australian Open. However, he beat Tsonga in Montreal last year. That was a close match, but went in straight sets.
Murray has generally had trouble facing big hitters including Verdasco, del Potro, and Gonzalez. Although Tsonga is no slouch when it comes to hitting, he’s not quite a pure power hitter. This means that Murray should have plenty of chances to hang in there. Murray would be better served if his first serve percentages were higher. Against Querrey, he put in only 45% of first serves. In previous rounds, he had been serving closer to 60%, which is where he should be, but Murray is more of a 50% first server.
I think Murray should be favored to win this match, given the form he’s played so far, but Tsonga is talented, so I’d expect it to be close.
Nadal vs. Soderling
When the draw came out, this looked to be the trickiest match Nadal would face, short of facing, say, Federer in the finals. Several things have pushed the predictions both ways. When Nadal faced his second five-setter playing Philipp Petzschner in the third round and complained about various ailments, it seemed, for sure, that Soderling with his steady power, would be able to do what neither Petzschner nor Haase could do: beat Nadal.
Soderling last played Nadal at Wimbledon in 2007 in a match that went 5 sets. Soderling made fun of Nadal for his pants tugging and the ball bouncing. At least, Nadal has fixed up one of his habits (ball bouncing).
Soderling’s match against Ferrer was expected to be somewhat tough, but it looked like he should have won in straight sets. Soderling seemed to be mentally in and out the entire match, unable to keep the balls in play, and letting Ferrer have opportunities. He was continuously trying to regrip his racquet during changeovers. Like Djokovic, he complained of some stomach ailment, so perhaps, like Djokovic, it was bother him some.
I suspect this was just a temporary problem, and he’ll work to get focused again. If Soderling can play like he did at the French–and I know that was a losing effort–he can beat Nadal. Soderling was hitting the ball very hard against Nadal, but Nadal was able to spin the balls up high and give himself time to recover. Soderling was forced to hit 4, 5, 6 shots as hard as he could and still sometimes not win the point. On grass, I believe he’d just have to hit 1 or 2 such hard shots, and the point would be over.
Nadal hasn’t looked particularly sharp, but he does have a way of making it through a draw. He faced Mathieu today and won rather easily. To beat Nadal means you need to play aggressive tennis, and sometimes lower ranked players try for too big a shot and miss too often. Soderling, on the other hand, just has to play his game and hit the ball cleanly. He already hits with a lot of pace.
His match against Ferrer was worrisome because he wasn’t hitting that well, but he did finally gather himself at the end and find a way to beat Ferrer.
So this is the only one I’d call an upset on. If Lu upsets Djokovic, it’s probably going to be for health-related reasons on Djokovic’s part. Berdych has a shot to upset Federer, but I’d say his chances don’t look so good right this moment. He certainly has the talent to do it. Finally, Tsonga certainly has a shot at beating Murray.
