Just for fun, I’m going to rate the 8 fourth-round matches from “pretty sure it’s a sure thing” to “toss-up”.

Almost a sure thing

Roddick vs. Lu

Lu’s a fine player, but he’s has the kind of game that doesn’t lend itself well to upsets.  A guy like Petzschner can come to net, and takes chances off the ground.  A guy like Falla also takes chances and plays close up to the baseline.  Roddick should be steadier than Lu and his serve should win him a few free points.  Not saying an upset couldn’t happen, but Roddick would have to get injured or Lu would have to play in a way I’ve never seen him play.

Should be a win, perhaps

Nadal vs. Mathieu

There’s been a lot of press about how Nadal had to face two five-setters in a row.  His knee is bothering him.  He’s getting coaching.  Nadal will want to squash this, I think.  The only problem with a hurt Nadal is that he plays more conservatively.  It looks like he’s playing more conservatively than at the French and that means an attacking opponent has a chance.

The problem is that I still don’t fully trust that Mathieu is back.  Mathieu has historically had some mental toughness issues.  Even so, he managed to beat Youzhny after being down 3-0 in the fifth set, and played good tiebreaks to beat de Bakker.  So, that leaves some doubt in my mind as to how easy this win is going to be.  Mathieu will know he needs to play aggressive.  Can he be the third guy in a row to push Nadal?  I doubt it, but I don’t feel as confident as I do with the Lu match because of his last two rounds.

A tough win, but a win nonetheless

These are matches that I still favor the winner to win, and possibly even win easily, but because the player they’re playing against is reasonably decent, or because there’s history between the players, I’ve put them in this next category.

Federer vs. Melzer

I was thinking of putting this match into the easier category, but given how Falla gave Federer issues in the first round (being a lefty) and Melzer is also a lefty, and with Melzer playing confident tennis, I think he might press Federer.  However, Federer generally has one or two really easy matches where he just dominates someone (think Haas in last year’s Wimbledon or del Potro in last year’s Australian Open).  Melzer seems like the best possibility for that to happen.  The two have never played each other, so that kind of works against Federer, who tends to play better if he’s played someone several times.

Tsonga vs. Benneteau

If you were to just look at rankings, this should be in Tsonga’s column, no problem.  But the head-to-head suggests otherwise.  The two have played 6 times, and split 3 apiece.  Tsonga has one thing in his favor.  All his wins come in Slams.  This means he plays better big match tennis than Benneteau.  I think Tsonga should win, but Benneteau will make him work for it.

Soderling vs. Ferrer

Ferrer fizzled a bit at the French, losing to Melzer.  He’s pretty much slipped under the radar at this year’s Wimbledon.  If it had been clay, Ferrer might have been a more imposing matchup.  However, Soderling has a pretty good records against Ferrer extending back to before he reached the top 10.  Ferrer has beaten him on clay, but Soderling beat Ferrer the last time they played, which was the 2009 French Open.

Despite having a game that should overpower Ferrer, Ferrer is quick and having one of his best years.  Again, I think Soderling should win, and he might even win easily (Chardy gave Ferrer trouble), but it’s hard to be so bold with a player of Ferrer’s playing ability.

Murray vs. Querrey

This match-up is intriguing.  You have a player that hasn’t played his best tennis since the Australian Open in Andy Murray playing a guy who has had a pretty good year, having 3 wins on the tour, second only to Nadal.  Querrey recently suffered a minor bout of burnout shortly after losing to Robby Ginepri in the first round of this year’s French Open.  But, maybe a week of rest is all he needed.  Working with his coach, David Nainkin, he’s worked on keeping a positive frame of mind and not letting negative thoughts creep in.

This worked miracles at Queen’s when he became the top seed left in the draw that hadn’t been upset and beat his buddy Mardy Fish to win the title.  Querrey also hung tough against Malisse, a guy he beat at Queen’s handily, when he managed to break at 7-all, despite having one break early on with a potential for a second break, and then getting broken as he served for the match.  Querrey is starting to win these close matches that used to give him trouble.

But.

Why is Andy Murray tough to play?  One of the biggest reasons is his return of serve.  As much as Murray is considered a pusher on the tour, one area he excels is his return.  In Australia, he played a tight set against Isner, but then started reading his serve and exploiting Isner’s mobility.  While Isner is a better server than Querrey (wins more cheap points off it), Querrey is a far better mover.

Querrey had reworked his game to a more Federer-like game.  The idea is to serve, get a weak return, and put the ball away.  Querrey also runs around his backhand more than he used to.

However, as much as Querrey has beefed his game up, it’s not a power game in the way Verdasco or Gonzalez or del Potro has a power game where you can suddenly get buried under an avalanche of power shots.  Murray tends to do well against big servers that don’t move well, and while Querrey moves well, Murray moves better.

Even though I think Murray has the right shots to beat Querrey, Querrey has improved, so that’s why I can’t quite move this match up higher than this.  That, and Murray has had indifferent results so far.  Wimbledon has been his best tournament since the Australian Open (well, maybe Indian Wells).  Murray has yet to drop a set, so he’s feeling some confidence, but he’s also yet to play a power player.

Tossups

Djokovic vs. Hewitt

Djokovic is such a mystery.  The guy is clearly talented.  He can play on all surfaces: grass, clay, hard courts.  He’s beaten all the top players: Federer, Nadal, Murray, Davydenko, and del Potro.  And yet, he often fights himself and his health issues as much as his opponents.  If Djokovic has good health and sharp focus, he’d be contending for number 1 in the world.  But, this year has been a down year for Djokovic.  Djokovic has done his usual at the Slams, reaching the quarterfinals at the Australian and at the French, but in both cases, Djokovic faded after dominating his quarterfinal match.

Djokovic opened with a five set win over Rochus, a guy he lost to in Miami, and there were questions how he was doing.  But then, he got a kind of gift in Taylor Dent, who serves and volleys and prefers to play short points.  Djokovic overcame the pace of Dent and was able to take this in straight sets.  In a match against Montanes, who is a good clay courter, Djokovic had another easy win when Montanes seemed unable to do much and was making too many errors to hurt Djokovic.

Given Djokovic’s record over Hewitt, 3-1, with 2 wins on grass, why is Hewitt even in the conversation?  Several reasons.  First, Hewitt has been a Slam champion as well as former number 1.  He’s known how to win.  OK, so those titles are almost a decade old and he’s not been in serious contention for a title in several years, but he’s got pedigree.

Second, he beat Federer in Halle after Federer had chances to break Hewitt at love, and serve for the match.  Third, Hewitt reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year, pushing Roddick to five sets.  The point is: Hewitt can still play.  And, I think people feel his mental toughness plus his grass court skill will be enough to face a mentally shaky Djokovic.

Although I rate it a toss-up, I’m still inclined to favor Djokovic.  Overall, he’s still the better player.  He knows he’s underperformed in the last two Slams and that his game is still not up to the level he’d like it to be, but I still like his chances.

Berdych vs. Brands

There’s no doubt that Berdych is a talented guy.  He reached the semis at the French without dropping a set including a beatdown of Isner and a drubbing of Murray.  Unlike Soderling, however, he seems to lack the mental toughness to make a breakthrough.  On the one hand, his casual demeanor seems to indicate a lack of pressure which allows him to hit freely, but on the other, when things get tough, one wonders how Berdych will hold up.

Although I have little to back this up, I feel Brands has a big game (he’s similar in height and weight to Berdych) and this could be enough to keep him close with Berdych.  In three matches so far, Brands has played 7 tiebreaks, including 2 in the first round (he won both), 2 in the second round (won both over Davydenko), 3 in the third round (lost 2 to Hanescu, won the third).  Brands is perhaps the Melzer of this tournament, if not more so.  At least, Melzer has been around for many years, but I’ve only heard a smattering of Brands, really not much at all.

One reason is that Brands has played a lot of Challenger events and hasn’t had much of a breakthrough in a big event.  Wimbledon is one of his best results this year.  Were it someone else besides Berdych, maybe I wouldn’t rate this a toss-up.  I mean, I could see Berdych winning this easily, but somehow, I think he’s going to work real hard for this win.