With the middle Sunday as a rest day (unique among Slams that generally want to make money off this day), Day 7 is really Monday and not Sunday.
Let’s take this opportunity to look at Monday. On Monday, all men and women will play their fourth round matches in Wimbledon’s version of “Super Saturday” except it’s Super Monday.
Federer vs. Melzer
This is a little surprising, at least, Melzer. Melzer had played nearly continuously at Slams since 2002, and since that time, he had never reached the fourth round until reaching the semifinals at Roland Garros a few weeks ago. Apparently, taking inspiration from that, he has made it to the fourth round of Wimbledon, making this month his best consecutive Slam showing ever. Melzer’s route hasn’t been easy. He beat Victor Troicki and Feliciano Lopez.
Given how long both Federer and Melzer have played the tour, it’s amazing that the two have never played each other. Melzer may be studying Falla’s play since both he and Falla are lefties. Apparently, Federer and Melzer go way back, even playing doubles together when they were juniors.
I mean, despite his win over Djokovic, you have to feel Federer is going to win this match. Melzer might get a set, but Federer tends to do better with players he’s played against numerous times, and yet, these two have avoided each other for some time. Hard to pick against Fed, and no particular reason to do so either.
Berdych vs. Brands
These two have never met either. Both are similar in height and age. Presumably Brands has a big serve. Both had five setters to get to this point. Brands is about 3 years younger. The two have never met. I suppose Berdych, having had a good French Open, is pretty strongly favored, but since he hasn’t had a huge breakthrough (the French is one of his best results), there’s chances Brands could pull the upset. Unlike the French where Berdych was rolling over opponents easily, Berdych has struggled some, and I think Brands could take a set off Berdych. I may check out some matches. Brands was the guy that upset Davydenko, though Davydenko, much like Simon, hasn’t had much match play since he withdrew from Indian Wells for a wrist fracture.
When I’m undecided, I pick the higher ranked player, which is Berdych, but Brands could pull the upset.
Djokovic vs. Hewitt
Head-to-head tells you that Djokovic should be the favorite, but Hewitt has shown an affinity for grass. He just beat Monfils, a guy who has given him trouble, though, to be fair, Monfils has yet to show the mental resolve that would make him a consistent champion. He seems as flighty (and as talented) as Henri Leconte.
Djokovic has a 3-1 lead on Hewitt, including two grass court wins. When Djokovic is on top of his game, he’s a better player than Hewitt. But he’s not on the top of his game. This is perhaps the most even of the matches, and despite the head-to-head, Hewitt may enter this match as the favorite. Djokovic has been struggling some, but has played better as the tournament has one on. The key for Djokovic is not succumbing to fatigue issues which have knocked him out of the last two Slams and have lead to retirements in other Slams. Give credit to Hewitt. He hasn’t been relevant in Slams for some time now, and yet, he continues to train hoping to regain some of the magic that lead to two Slams early in his career, including a Wimbledon win.
The first set should be key. Whoever wins will have a lot of confidence to pull off the win. Hewitt’s style of play will make Djokovic work. This may go the distance.
Roddick vs. Lu
Lu is one of those hard workers whose rank has never quite reflected how much he puts in. This is the best Slam he’s ever had. Roddick has played Lu three times and has won all three times. To Lu’s credit, the two have only ever had two set scores: 6-4, and 7-6. Most would say Roddick should win in straight sets, and as long as he’s focused, that will probably happen. Lu had a very nice draw. His most difficult opponent so far was Horacio Zeballos and he’s yet to drop a set. Most will credit this to a very friendly draw.
Roddick should win in 3 or 4 sets unless he’s off his game. He’ll be like a less threatening Kohlschreiber.
Benneteau vs. Tsonga
This has the potential to be a danger match for Tsonga. The two have met 6 times and split evenly. The one plus for Tsonga is they’ve met 3 times in Slams and Tsonga has won all 3. Still, Benneteau knows this is his best chance for an upset, to play someone from his own country whose game he knows well. Benneteau has played more sets than Tsonga so that might play a factor. I could see Benneteau taking a set. I think he has an outside shot at the upset, however. He will, at least, be confident that he’s beaten Tsonga several times. Edge to Tsonga.
Querrey vs. Murray
Querrey has spent the last year modifying his game to make him more dangerous. In the past, Querrey would play a lot of shots on his backhand. He’s reinvented his game to be more Federer-like, running around his backhand and playing a lot of forehands, which he can hit inside-in and inside-out. His win against Malisse was both positive and negative. He beat Malisse 9-7 in the fifth, but he had a break early in the fifth and was threatening to have a second break. He then got broken when serving for the match, and had to do work to break Malisse who was up 30-0 in the game he finally lost to go down 8-7.
Murray has actually had a pretty good Wimbledon, partly courtesy of a friendly draw that hasn’t pitted him against big hitters. Querrey will be the first big hitter that he faces. Querrey’s improved his mobility which used to be more of a problem. Murray will still look to exploit Querrey’s movement, and to use his superior return of serve to pressure Querrey. Querrey has complained that he hasn’t played well in Slams. A fourth round appearance is a step in the right direction.
Querrey has a big serve, but Murray handled Isner back in Australia (who has weaker movement than Querrey) quite handily. I think Querrey may take the first set off of Murray. Murray will want to use his sharp crosscourt backhands to force Querrey to hit backhands and then open up the court when Querrey tries inside-in forehands.
Murray should be favored, especially with a 3-0 lead, but Murray hasn’t played Querrey since Querrey upgraded his game. Could be an interesting match, but Murray should win in 4 or maybe 3.
Soderling vs. Ferrer
With Isner-Mahut taking the attention of many fans, followed by two five-setters by Nadal and a five-setter by Federer, Soderling has flown a bit under the radar, but Ferrer has really flown under the radar. Soderling has a 5-2 record over Ferrer. 2 of the losses have been on clay, and Soderling beat Ferrer en route to the Roland Garros finals in 2009. Ferrer is having one of his best years yet, but grass is not his best surface. This will be the second time Ferrer has reached the fourth round of Wimbledon. Ferrer’s a tough opponent, but Soderling does nearly everything better. He hits harder serves, and hard on both sides. Soderling should come in confident, but Ferrer will be there to pounce if Soderling shows any weakness.
I expect a Soderling win, with the possibility that Ferrer might give him some troubles, because it’s Ferrer’s best year in some time.
Mathieu vs. Nadal
Mathieu continues to surprise. I honestly don’t know why he’s doing so well all of a sudden. Once, one of France’s top prospects, he’s been surpassed by many a Frenchman and is maybe 6th best? Mathieu apparently used aggressive tactics to beat Youzhny in a match Youzhny looked prepared to win. Mathieu will need to follow in the footsteps of Petzschner and Haase, hitting big, coming to net, and looking to pressure Nadal. Nadal, by contrast, will be ultra-motivated to keep this one short and quick. It’s exceptional for Nadal to be pushed to five setters. Perhaps his knees are bothering him more than he lets on. His play seems to have gotten a bit more conservative, compared to how he was playing in the French.
I’d expect Nadal to win in 3 or 4 sets. If Nadal is off his game, then I suppose he might play off, but it’s hard to imagine Nadal playing three tough matches in a row. If he does, Soderling will be looking seriously to taking him out.
Conclusion
Of the 8 matches, Roddick perhaps has the easiest fourth round match against Lu. In theory, Nadal should have a pretty easy match too. I expect him to bounce back and handle Mathieu, but really, it depends on his health. Then, I’d say Federer vs. Melzer, and perhaps Murray vs. Querrey as the next most challenging. Then, Tsonga vs. Benneteau (only because of their head to head record) and Soderling vs. Ferrer (this could be a rout, too, but Ferrer is such a good player that it’s tough to say). I rate Berdych vs. Brands as a toss-up as well as Djokovic vs. Hewitt.
