OK, Wimbledon released the draw a few hours ago. Let’s take a look.
We’ll divide the draw into 8 sections from Section 1 (where Roger Federer is) to Section 8 (where number 2 seed Rafael Nadal is). Each section is 16 players. The top half of a section is the 8 players (the winner of the 8 players reaches the fourth round).
Section 1
This is Roger Federer’s section. He opens up with Alejandro Falla who must be tired of seeing Roger Federer. The two met in the second round at the French Open and the second round in Halle, both losses to Federer. Expect another easy win for Roger. In the second round, he would meet either a qualifier or veteran Nicolas Massu. Massu used to be a decent player, but it’s been a while since I’ve seen his name in any draw. Roger’s potential third round opponent might be Janko Tipsarevic. Tipsy plays reasonably well on grass, but he opens against French veteran, Arnaud Clement, who reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2008. Robredo is also in this group with Tipsarevic.
In the bottom half of Section 1, Feliciano Lopez (22 seed) opens against American, Jesse Levine. Lopez recently reached the semifinals of Queen’s but lost somewhat early in Eastbourne the following week. Jurgen Melzer, French Open semifinalist, is in the top seed in the bottom half of Section 1 (16 seed).
Likely winner: Roger Federer
Section 2
In the top half of Section 2, the top 2 seeds are Tomas Berdych (12 seed) and Stanislas Wawrinka (20 seed). This is a pretty challenging section since both these seeds are quite dangerous. Wawrinka opens up against Denis Istomin who pushed Rafa to 3 sets and is currently in the semifinals at Eastbourne. Wawrinka hasn’t played a grass tuneup heading into Wimbledon. Rainer Schuettler, who reached the Queen’s semifinal this year, and Benjamin Becker, who is in the semis of the UNICEF Open are also in the top half.
Davydenko (7 seed) is in the bottom half of Section 2. This section doesn’t look too bad overall, but Davydenko has to deal with big servers off the bat starting with Kevin Anderson in the first round and potentially Daniel Brands in the 2nd. Davydenko played in Halle, but didn’t get that far. Grass is perhaps Davydenko’s weakest surface, and he just returned from injury at Halle, having not played since dropping out of Indian Wells. It’s difficult to predict how far Davydenko can go. Hanescu (31 seed) is the other seed in the bottom half of Section 2.
Likely winner: Tomas Berdych
Section 3
Novak Djokovic (3 seed) opens up against Roger Federer’s former doubles partner (from long ago), Olivier Rochus. If Rochus’s name seems familiar, he beat Djokovic at Miami. Presumably, he’ll find a way to beat Rochus this time around. Then, he plays the winner of Chela-Dent which is probably Dent. If he gets past the 2nd round, Montanes is a potential 3rd round opponent. Basically, the top half of Section 3 has no particularly strong grass courters, and so Djokovic merely has to play pretty good tennis to get through it.
Monfils (21 seed) and Hewitt (15 seed) are in the bottom half of Section 3. You would think Monfils might be OK on grass, but he plays even more defensively than Murray, rarely using his explosive talent to be aggressive against his opponents. Hewitt looks like he should get through this section. Should he meet Monfils, Hewitt is 1-2 against Monfils including their most recent meeting in 2009 Shanghai. Even so, they’ve never met on grass.
Should Hewitt meet Djokovic, then the edge (in principle) should go to Djokovic. He has a 4-1 record including twice beating him on grass, including once at Wimbledon. The question is Djokovic’s mental status. I’ll be positive and pick Novak.
Likely winner: Novak Djokovic
Section 4
Well, we won’t get a repeat of last year. Andy Roddick is seeded in Roger Federer’s half. Roddick is the top seed in Section 4. Marin Cilic (11 seed) is in the top half of Section 4. He opens up against Florian Mayer. Mardy Fish starts with Aussie youngster, Bernard Tomic, who had to qualify to get into the draw. Ljubicic (17 seed) has generally played poorly at Wimbledon, but he might reach the 3rd round this year, given the relative weakness of the first few rounds of his draw.
Andy Roddick is in the bottom half of Section 4. He opens against fellow American, Rajeev Ram. Ram has only one ATP title to his name, but it is on grass. He beat Sam Querrey last year to win the Hall of Fame Championships which is held the week after Wimbledon. Even so, Roddick is above Ram’s pay grade and should be able to get past him. His second round opponent could be Jesse Witten, but the likelihood is that it will be Benjamin Becker, who is playing good grass court tennis these days. Roddick’s potential third round opponent are all clay courters. This group is: Kohlschreiber, Starace, Delgado, and Gabashvili. Roddick has an outside shot of playing the guy who knocked him out of the French.
Cilic is better on hard courts, and hasn’t shown a proficiency for the low bounces on grass. He’s also not played that well since the Australian Open. Still, a dangerous player.
Likely winner: Andy Roddick
Section 5
Now to the bottom half of the draw. Verdasco (8 seed) is in the top half of Section 5. This section doesn’t look that strong. The other seed in the top half is Julien Benneteau. Verdasco has elements of his game that should work well on grass. He’s a hard hitting lefty. He’s reached the 4th round quite a few times the last few years.
In the bottom half of Section 5, Almagro opens against Seppi of Italy. Tsonga is the top seed in the bottom half (10 seed). This makes Section 5 the toughest in terms of two seeds close to one another (8 and 10 seed). Wimbledon is not Tsonga’s favorite surface either. Dolgopolov, who is in the semis at Eastbourne (currently struggling to stay in the match against Michael Llodra), is a potential 2nd round opponent.
This section is rather weak, at least with potential grass courters.
Likely winner: Fernando Verdasco
Section 6
Juan Carlos Ferrero (14 seed) is the top seed in the top half of Section 6. He opens against Xavier Malisse who has played pretty good grass court tennis lately. Sam Querrey (18 seed) is in this section and also has a tough opener against Sergei Stakhovsky who is in the finals of the UNICEF Open. This makes it a little tough, because Stakhovsky will come off one tournament directly to another. Querrey just won Queen’s, but I’m sure he’d prefer an opponent that’s a little less on-form.
Andy Murray (4 seed) should get through to the fourth round rather easily. The other seed in the bottom half is Gilles Simon who is returning to play after many months off. Simon also had a poor 2009. Even so, he’s managed to keep his ranking up so that he is seeded 26th.
Likely winner: Andy Murray
Section 7
Robin Soderling (seed 6) is the top seed in the top half of Section 6. He opens against Robby Ginepri, who had a good French Open run. Ginepri is, alas, a bit better on clay than grass. Ginepri’s best year was 2004, which was quite a while ago. Ginepri recently lost to Querrey at Queen’s. A lot of clay courters in Soderling’s section. He has a good chance to reach the fourth round. Soderling is probably happy not to meet Roger Federer, at least, on grass. He’d probably rather face Rafael Nadal.
In the bottom half of Section 7, David Ferrer is the top seed (seed 9). He has a tough veteran in Nicolas Kiefer in the first round. They’ve only played twice. Once in last year’s French Open (Ferrer won in 5) and once in 2004 (Kiefer won that). Baghdatis is the tough player in the bottom half of Ferrer’s draw.
Likely winner: Robin Soderling
Section 8
Finally, the last section. At the top half of Section 8 is Mikhail Youzhny who faces Dudi Sela, the guy that upset Roddick at Queen’s. Youzhny has generally done all right at Wimbledon, typically reaching the 4th round. Last year, he lost in the first round to Juan Carlos Ferrero. Youzhny boosted his ranking at the end of last year and had a decent clay court season. John Isner is in this section. He could move to the fourth round given the players in that section.
Rafael Nadal is in the bottom half of Section 8. He starts with the difficult Kei Nishikori who was given a wildcard. Should he get past him, he might have to play James Blake, who isn’t exactly in form, but could be dangerous. If he gets past the 2nd round, he might meet Ernests Gulbis in the 3rd round, and potentially John Isner in the fourth round. These are all pretty tough opponents for Rafa. Indeed, I’d say his draw is the toughest among the ones out there.
Likely winner: Rafael Nadal
And there you have it. I may add more thoughts on who gets deep in the tournament. And Wimbledon 2010 starts in 2 days!