Wimbledon is the toughest tournament to do a preview for. There is really no grass court season. For most players, it lasts all of one week. Grass favors big servers with big groundstrokes.
The French is different. There’s six weeks of tournaments with three Masters 1000 events. You get a long time to see clay court players get ready for the clay. To be fair, good clay results don’t always translate to good French results. After the tuneups, one can conclude that Fernando Verdasco just played too much. He played 5 tournaments on clay leading up to the French. Now, maybe he would still have lost to Almagro, but his serve just went south as he could get no pace on it.
David Ferrer lost surprisingly to Jurgen Melzer, and Melzer not only beat him, but beat Novak Djokovic. And Tomas Berdych? Who thought he’d get to the semifinals. Even Robin Soderling didn’t have a great clay season. He reached the finals of Barcelona, but otherwise had something of an indifferent performance.
Last year, the one breakout win was Tommy Haas. He took that win to a semifinal appearance at Wimbledon. This year? He’s injured, and hasn’t played in quite a while. Radek Stepanek hasn’t played in quite a while either. He’s normally a solid grass court player.
So we end up relying on players that have historically done well. That includes Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Roddick, and Andy Murray.
Based on grass performance, you might as well add Lleyton Hewitt, Sam Querrey, Mardy Fish, and Feliciano Lopez.
Assuming John Isner is healthy to play, his game may work well on grass. Ernests Gulbis, who lost tamely in the first round at the French, has a big serve and a big ground game and may do well. He didn’t play this week, so the question is what shape he’s in heading into Wimbledon.
What about Ivo Karlovic? Like Tommy Haas, he hasn’t been heard of in quite a while. Last year, he had a pretty successful Wimbledon. This year, not likely he will go far, assuming he even plays.
Let’s look at last year’s quarterfinalists. Andy Roddick defeated Lleyton Hewitt in 5 sets. Roddick lost somewhat tamely to Dudi Sela. However, it’s hard to discount Roddick at his best Slam. The one big shortcoming for Roddick is his lack of match play. He had two great tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami, but then barely played until the French, lost to Gabashvili in the 3rd round and lost to Dudi Sela. Last year, Roddick reached the semis of Queen’s losing to Blake when he hurt his ankle and had to retire. Hewitt won Halle.
Both Roddick and Hewitt have a decent shot to go fairly deep in the tournament. Roddick is a bigger question mark in terms of his form.
Murray beat Ferrero. Ferrero started off well at the beginning of the year on clay. He faded during the clay season and had a relatively poor French Open losing to Ginepri in the 3rd round. I suppose Ferrero could do OK on grass again, but there’s nothing he’s done recently to show he’s trending to a good showing.
Andy Murray lost to Mardy Fish. The strokes he used to do reasonably OK at the French seems to have gone. Fish played aggressive tennis and Murray was unable to handle it. He also goes into Wimbledon not playing his sharpest tennis. You would think his French results would have gotten him deep into Queen’s. Perhaps he was unlucky to play Fish, but Murray is also entering Wimbledon with less confidence than last year when he won Queen’s. Still, Murray tends to play pretty well on grass. I’m thinking he goes out in the quarters. He’ll have to produce pretty special tennis and he hasn’t looked good since Australia.
Tommy Haas faced Novak Djokovic in the quarters. Given Haas lack of play, it seems a huge stretch to believe he’ll get very far, or even whether he’ll play. It’s been quite a while since Haas has played a competitive match. Djokovic, like Murray, is also struggling some. Djokovic lost to Xavier Malisse. He’s done well on grass historically, but this loss, like the Murray loss, seems like a problem. At the very least, Fish made the finals. But Malisse? Djokovic continues to struggle, but he’s talented enough to reach the quarters, so I think it’s reasonable for him to reach the quarters again.
Ivo Karlovic played Roger Federer. You have to expect Roger Federer to do well, so let’s skip to Ivo Karlovic. Karlovic hasn’t played since Madrid. He didn’t play the French. He hasn’t played in the grass events so far. I don’t expect Karlovic to go deep if he plays. The one positive is his serve. He’s always got that.
OK, of those that did make the quarters, the ones most likely not to repeat are Tommy Haas, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Ivo Karlovic. Of those that didn’t make it, the top choice is Rafael Nadal.
Let’s talk Rafa. Rafa has been a pretty successful grass court player. Rafa struggled a bit during Queen’s. He lost a set to Istomin and he lost to Lopez. Rafa struggles more against big servers on grass. He usually makes up for this by being superior to most players off the ground. Still, the transition hasn’t been smooth. I’m thinking Rafa has rethought his desire to win every tournament no matter how good or bad he feels. If he’s not feeling well, I think he’s prepared not to give it his all so he can save himself for the big tournaments.
Even so, Rafa is almost always good to the quarterfinals of every Slam he plays, so you can’t count him out. However, he could be vulnerable to a big server that has good groundies.
Could Mardy Fish do well? Mardy has peaked pretty well. Big serve, likes to attack the net. If he gets a favorable draw, he might make it deep. The lesson here is James Blake who did well at Queen’s, but did poorly at Wimbledon.
Stan Wawrinka is actually a pretty good grass court player having reached the fourth round for two years in a row, so he might do OK. John Isner and Sam Querrey are starting to play the kind of tennis that could take them far on grass. Tomas Berdych could do all right on grass.
Since the grass season is so short, some opt to not play it at all and head directly into Wimbledon. This makes Wimbledon tough to predict. We haven’t heard news from Tsonga or Monfils or Gulbis.
Despite this, Wimbledon seems to have fewer surprises in the latter rounds.
So we’ll see how Wimbledon turns out!
