This is why it’s difficult to predict who will do well at a Slam.  The semifinalists are: Robin Soderling, Tomas Berdych, Rafael Nadal, and Jurgen Melzer.  Raise your hand if you have more than 2 of 4 correct.

Based on past history, you would surely have put Roger Federer instead of Robin Soderling.  Berdych would not likely have been your choice, and Ferrer would probably be there instead of Melzer and he would have been the one battling Djokovic.  The least likely guess would surely be Jurgen Melzer who had two key upsets: David Ferrer and Novak Djokovic.  The players that were doing pretty well heading into the French (besides Rafa and Roger) were Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer, Ernests Gulbis, and to a lesser extent, Mikhail Youzhny, Sam Querrey, John Isner, and perhaps Robin Soderling.

Last year, this happened too.  The semifinalists were: Roger Federer, Juan Martin del Potro, Robin Soderling, and Fernando Gonzalez.  del Potro wasn’t quite expected to play that well in the French.  The players playing the best heading into the French were Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal and neither got to the quarterfinals.  Soderling kinda came out of nowhere to reach the semifinals.  Gonzalez had a pretty solid clay season reaching the semis of Barcelona and Rome, but playing neither Monte Carlo nor Madrid.

OK let’s get to this year’s French Open.  It’s a little hard to imagine Melzer being able to pressure Nadal like he did Djokovic.  Melzer at least has a good drop shot, but he found it really difficult to close out Djokovic.  Djokovic was, by the end of the match, struggling with Melzer’s shots.  Obviously, Melzer sees a great opportunity to get to his first final, but Nadal loses so infrequently to anyone on clay that I would be surprised if Melzer could take a set off Nadal.

The other semifinal is much harder to call.  Soderling has a small lead in head-to-head over Berdych.  Both play big games.  Soderling is the harder hitter, but Berdych also hits pretty hard and is perhaps more mobile.  Berdych, if one recalls, gave Federer big problems at the Australian Open one year, pushing him to 5 sets.  Berdych’s best results recently have been on hard courts, including reaching the final of Miami against Roddick.  His clay results have been somewhat indifferent, though he did have a win over Almagro in Dusseldorf the week before the French.

Most people are predicting Soderling to reach the finals.  Here are some reasons why this might be tougher than expected.  Berdych has not dropped a set.  Berdych beat Soderling 2 and 2 the last time they met.  Here are reasons why Soderling is favored: he’s made it to the finals before.  He had a terrific match to beat Federer.  Last year when he beat Nadal, he still played great to beat Davydenko, then played real tough to beat Gonzalez.  It takes a good deal of focus to win the round after a huge upset.  Finally, Soderling has beaten Berdych before, even badly.  He’ll go in confident, as will Berdych, I imagine.