Madrid is the last of 3 Masters 1000 clay events. There’s Monte Carlo, which is optional (you aren’t fined for not showing up–it doesn’t count as a 0). There is Rome (required). There is Madrid. For those of you who have not followed tennis in about a year, Hamburg used to be Madrid and Madrid was played indoors. Hamburg is now an ATP 500 event played after the French Open. Ion Tiriac, the Romanian ex-player and now entrepreneur, manages this tournament.
Madrid was the site of Roger Federer’s resurgence on clay. Last year, after losing early to Stanislas Wawrinka in Monte Carlo (shortly after his wedding) and to Novak Djokovic in the semis of Rome, Roger Federer beat Soderling, Blake, Roddick, del Potro to reach the finals of Madrid. Although del Potro wouldn’t really start making a dent in Roger’s game til the French Open, this run was not too shabby. Of course, Robin Soderling would also make his breakthrough at Roland Garros, but at the time, this was a solid win.
Roger really barely got by Nadal in the finals. In his first two service games, he faced break points, and only good serving and hitting got him out of a potential mess. Meanwhile, Nadal was doing pretty well up until he got broken. Roger was up a break in the second set, but almost got broken back. So, despite the win, there were those that doubted Roger was ready to take the French.
Indeed, there were a bunch of other reasons. Nadal had just played a marathon match against Novak Djokovic in the semis where Djokovic had match points and seemed on the verge of finally beating Nadal on clay after a third consecutive encounter in a Masters 1000 clay event. While Nadal, as usual, didn’t look tired, the marathon was probably enough to make Nadal less than sharp. Nadal had also been complaining throughout the week that the altitude was making it difficult for him to keep the balls in play. Little would we know that Nadal was going to go down to the hard hitting Swede.
A year later and Roger Federer seems in far worse condition than he was last year. Consider the following. Federer had lost in the semis to Andy Murray in Indian Wells, then lost to Djokovic in Miami. He had said he was excited to head to clay and had considered this part of the tour something of a disaster. He was frustrated at his play.
Compare that to this year where he lost to Marcos Baghdatis (in Indian Wells) and Tomas Berdych (in Miami), and far earlier than the semis, and with match points in each. He then got booted in Rome by surging Ernests Gulbis who, nonetheless, was willing to choke away the win to Federer (Gulbis was broken serving for the match only to see Federer give the break back). Then, he headed to Estoril with a weak field made decidedly weaker when the two seeds after him (Monfils and Ljubicic) withdrew due to injuries. And still, Federer couldn’t get past Montanes, a player not ranked in the top 20.
Federer has a bye in Madrid. He’ll take on the winner of Carlos Moya (is he still playing?) who was given a wildcard and Benjamin Becker. He could meet countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the 3rd round. Wawrinka has been playing good tennis on clay this year. In Roddick’s section, Gulbis and Montanes, the last two guys to beat Federer, face off in the first round. Roddick is seeded to meet Roger Federer in the quarterfinals.
Roddick’s section is tough. Youzhny won the final in Munich (but may be tired, and not fare well in Madrid). Gulbis, Montanes, and Lopez are in his section.
In the same half, but the bottom quarter, Andy Murray is the top seed. He faces the winner of Cuevas and a qualifier. Cuevas is a solid clay courter, which Murray would probably prefer to meet on hard courts. Even so, he should get past that round. He’s likely to face either Andreev or Hanescu after that, and that will be a tougher challenge, especially Hanescu.
However, Sam Querrey, fresh off his win in Belgrade, will be in that section, and recently beat Andreev. He opens up against a qualifier.
In the adjacent section, Marin Cilic and David Ferrer are in a tough section that includes Marcos Baghdatis and Jeremy Chardy. Ferrer and Cilic would be seeded to meet in the 3rd round. Ferrer has been playing very good clay court tennis, while Cilic was the finalist in Munich, which just concluded.
Verdasco will take on the winner of Korolev and Karlovic. He is seeded to meet Berdych in the 3rd round, but Nalbandian may take him out earlier. He is in Nadal’s half of the draw.
Bellucci, Monaco, Troicki, and Almagro are in Soderling’s part of the draw, adjacent to Verdasco’s section.
In the Nadal quarter, Tsonga, Monfils, Petzchner and Garcia-Lopez are in the same subgroup. Isner, Kohlschreiber, and Seppi are in the same subgroup with Nadal.
Notably missing are the three D’s: del Potro, Davydenko, and Djokovic with Djokovic recently withdrawing due to allergies. del Potro won’t return until after Wimbledon. It’s unclear whether Davydenko will return by Roland Garros. If he does, he’ll go in cold.
Andy Roddick plays his first clay tournament of the season. Verdasco and Ferrer are the two guys that have shown solid play after Nadal. Can they continue their form in Madrid?
Nadal will be highly favored to win in Madrid, but recall that he wasn’t thrilled playing Madrid last year. Since he has taken off a week after Rome, he can at least train in Madrid, and is likely to be happier this go around. Nadal’s play fell off from its torrid pace in Monte Carlo when he played in Rome. Will he continue to play more like Rome or more like Monte Carlo? Or will his play fall even further? Right now, Nadal is the heavy favorite to win Madrid.
Meanwhile, Federer will have to pull the rabbit out of the proverbial hat and make a deep run in Madrid to show he’s ready to defend his title in Paris. Federer could lose the number 1 to Nadal (who is likely to regain number 2 after Madrid) if Nadal wins Madrid and Paris and Federer only reaches the semis of both.
Murray is flying pretty much under the radar. His style of play isn’t so conducive to clay, although there were signs of a breakthrough last year. He plays a bit too flat and inconsistent and relies on good serving to win on clay.
A few other missing players: Ivan Ljubicic, Fernando Gonzalez, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tommy Haas, Radek Stepanek, Tommy Robredo, and Gilles Simon.
