Once called the Italian Open, Rome now has a rather ponderous name: Internationalzi BNL d’Italia, which makes sense except BNL.  Once, it was a challenge to get top players to play the clay circuit.  Players like Connors and McEnroe often skipped right to the French, unwilling to take their lumps playing grueling points that weren’t well suited to their games.

The powers that be didn’t like that so much and wanted all the top players to play more of the second tier events, the events that weren’t the Slams.  Thus, the Masters series, which then became the Masters 1000 series.  The top players are all required to play these events, if physically able, otherwise, they face fines.  Apparently, there is a veteran exemption that lets you skip a required event once a year.  Andy Roddick has already chosen to use that exemption, perhaps wanting some more quite time with him and the wife.

The only Masters 1000 event that is optional is Monte Carlo, and several players, including Roddick and Federer, chose to make it optional.  It’s worth as many points as any other Masters 1000, but players aren’t compelled to play it if they don’t want.

Rome will mark the appearance of Roger Federer who has not played since losing in Miami to Tomas Berdych.  Although he came early to the US to prepare at Indian Wells, his training seemed to have been disrupted by a lung infection that caused him to miss Dubai.  In matches against Baghdatis and Berdych, Federer’s consistency appears to have abandoned him.  This may be due to an underlying reason.  In the past, that reason was his back, which bothered him sometime at the end of 2008.  Federer has lamented that he didn’t play as well as he did in Australia.

Ever since Nadal faltered at the Australian Open, losing in the quarterfinals, his ranking has dropped somewhere between 3 and 4.  He had been playing ranking tag with Andy Murray.  Murray’s poor play this spring has meant that, despite playing, his ranking has dropped.  More on Murray later.

Nadal has fallen out of the number 3 spot before.  During the US Open, Nadal was seeded 3, with Murray 2.  Even so, Nadal and Murray were in the same half of the draw, not that Murray was able to reach the semifinals to meet Nadal, losing early to Marin Cilic who then fell to Juan Martin del Potro, who then clubbed Nadal in the semis.

After the French, Djokovic became number 2.  His play has been fairly spotty since then.  He’s recently started to play better, but his loss to Verdasco was a bit unexpected, and although Verdasco appears to be hitting his stride in the clay season, one has to wonder whether Djokovic has regained the form that helped him do so well from the US Open til the end of the year.

Ever since Nadal dropped to 3 and below, there’s always been the chance that he and Federer could be placed in the same half of the draw, and yet, that has failed to happen.  At the US Open, Nadal was in the opposite half from Federer.  Nadal was number 2 in Australia, so that automatically meant he and Federer could only meet in the finals, were they to play, which they didn’t.  In Indian Wells and Miami, Rafa again was in the opposite half of the draw from Federer.

Federer chose not to play Monte Carlo, but finally, at Rome, there’s the possibility that he may face Nadal in the semifinals.

Federer has to deal with a tough match right off the bat.  He gets a bye, as do the other top 8 seeds.  He gets the winner of Ernests Gulbis and Marcos Baghdatis.  Baghdatis leads the series, 4-0, but they’ve only played on fast surfaces, never on clay.  Will Gulbis’s recent win at Delray Beach boost his confidence?  He made a decent run at Monte Carlo, but lost to Verdasco in the quarters.

Querrey starts his Rome match with another Frenchman, though this time it is Julien Benneteau rather than Jeremy Chardy who he played at Indian Wells (won) and Miami (lost).  Is Querrey ready to play on clay?  He reached the finals of Houston which is on clay, so that’s positive.

In the same quarter as Federer, but in the adjacent eighth, there are some tough players: Almagro, Lopez, Cilic, and Becker.  Fortunately for whoever comes out of Fed’s eighth, they can only play one of those players.

In the other quarter looms Nadal.  He’s going to be heavily favored to come out of that quarter.  He may play Kohlschreiber again in the 2nd round.  They played on the hard courts in Australia, but not since then.  Hanescu has won his match and will play the winner of Andreev and Monaco.  Whoever wins that match is likely to play Nadal.

The adjacent eighth to Nadal’s also has some tough players: Melzer, Berdych, Wawrinka, Montanes, and Soderling, who just reached the finals of Barcelona.

Murray takes on Seppi, and if he manages to get past Seppi, he potentially has to play David Ferrer, who has been playing outstanding tennis.  Indeed, four Spaniards have played well on clay this year.  At the top is Nadal, then Verdasco, then Ferrer and Ferrero.

In Murray’s adjacent eighth is Tsonga, Beck, Ferrero and de Bakker.  Murray has a lot to prove and clay is not the best surface to show whether Murray is back or not.

Speaking of Murray, let’s talk about his ranking.  Murray had a fair bit of points to defend from last year heading into the clay season.  This included winning Rotterdam, making the finals of Indian Wells, and winning Miami.  He then reached the semifinals of Monte Carlo.  This year, he skipped Rotterdam, lost early in Dubai, made the quarters of Indian Wells and lost early in Miami as well as Monte Carlo.

This means, even with players like Juan Martin del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko not playing, del Potro has actually moved to fourth in the rankings, mostly because del Potro didn’t have quite as many points to defend as Murray did.  Had Murray done, say, much better in Rome than he did last year (an early loss to Juan Monaco), he could have been in danger of dropping behind another player who is recuperating, Nikolay Davydenko.  Davydenko also lost early in Rome, so he has almost no points lost when those points drop off (10 points).  He’ll lose more at Madrid, so this should keep Murray ahead of Davydenko up til the French.

Depending on when del Potro comes back, Murray may end up regaining the number 4 ranking.  del Potro is 240 points ahead of Murray.  del Potro made the quarters of Rome while Murray has nearly no points to defend.  If del Potro fails to play Madrid, then Murray will almost surely move ahead of del Potro, who will lose 540 points between the two tournaments.

Verdasco is about to see if he can handle the grind of the clay circuit.  Having reached the finals of Monte Carlo and winning Barcelona, he’ll play again.  This time, he gets the winner of Bolleli and Greul, which should be something of an easy match (he gets a bye).  In the next grouping, there is Chela, Hewitt, Garcia-Lopez, and Youzhny.  Chela recently won Houston.  Hewitt is coming off injury.

Djokovic plays Jeremy Chardy in the 2nd round.  In his eighth, there is also Isner, Zeballos, Bellucci and Mayer with Bellucci perhaps the toughest one in that section.

To me, there are several big questions. Can Murray get past a round or two, and make at least the quarterfinals.  Compared to last year when Murray looked like he was playing better on clay, he seems to have regressed some.

Has Djokovic overcome some of his confidence issues?  Is Nadal still full of confidence and ready to roll?  How is Federer doing?  Right now, Nadal and maybe Verdasco are the hot players on clay.  Will Federer somehow lose before he plays Nadal?