Prior to Indian Wells, if you were to ask who the favorites to win Indian Wells and Miami, few would have said Andy Roddick.  Of course, fewer still would have said Ivan Ljubicic who won Indian Wells.

Most were predicting Roger Federer, with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, nearly as often, and perhaps Rafael Nadal just behind them.   In a way, Roddick has benefited from everyone having their own issues.  Roger Federer’s illness appears to have affected his consistency that lead Roger to his 16th Slam in Melbourne.  He lost early to Marcos Baghdatis and then to Tomas Berdych.

Andy Murray did OK in Indian Wells, losing to Robin Soderling, and then lost early to Mardy Fish who had to retire shortly thereafter.  Novak Djokovic had the worst results, barely scraping a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber then losing to Ivan Ljubicic at Indian Wells, and lost to Olivier Rochus in the second round.

Nadal has played respectably well, but still lost to players he’s normally favored to beat.  He lost to Ljubicic in the semis of Indian Wells then to Roddick in Miami.

And Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin del Potro have not played due to injuries.

Roddick did his part.  Roddick, when he plays well, just keeps winning.  He uses a combination of big serves and steady baseline play to beat most of his opponents, and rarely loses to nobodies.  To give a sense of how hard it is to beat Roddick, he’s only lost serve twice at Miami in some 60 service games.

Now that Roddick has made the finals, his second consecutive Masters 1000 finals, can he beat Berdych?  Roddick lost to Ljubicic in Indian Wells.  However, Roddick hadn’t played Ljubicic in 3 years, although he did win their last two encounters.  Still, he had a 7-3 lead heading into the finals.

Roddick’s chances against Tomas Berdych seem better.  Roddick has a 5-2 record over Berdych, including playing him twice this year.

Although Roddick beat Nadal by playing aggressively, don’t expect Roddick to use this style against Berdych.  Berdych lost to Nadal in Indian Wells with Nadal playing good solid steady tennis.  Although Berdych has the ability to hit big shots, he also racks up the unforced errors.  Having said that, Berdych’s win over Soderling has to be a little scary to Roddick.  Berdych won 6-2, 6-2.  But, typically, this means a player has played out of his mind, and such trends usually last one match.  There’s often a hangover effect with a player coming back to Earth and playing a worse than usual game.

Could Berdych beat Roddick?  Yes, he could.  Berdych has big shots and moves well for a big man.  He’s played well in Indian Wells and he’s played well in Miami.  Could Berdych be the new Soderling, a guy poised to reach the top 10?

Roddick will be under pressure to win this Masters 1000 in his best opportunity since, well, Indian Wells.  Roddick didn’t expect that most of his opponents would have faded before reaching the later rounds, but he has respectably beaten Soderling and Nadal.

Still, Roddick has to feel he has a mental edge over Berdych.  Obviously, the key for Roddick is holding his serve, which will then put pressure on Berdych to hold his.

Although I’m not much into predictions, because I’m generally wrong, I’ll take Roddick in straight sets, something like 7-6, 6-4.