With the Australian Open already half a day old, Roger Federer has hoisted yet another trophy adding to his bevy of Slam titles.  He has long since passed Pete Sampras and now eyes the women champs who were, unlike the men, always head and shoulders above their competition.  With each passing Slam, the winds of fortune dictate how Federer is doing.

When Federer won the French, people proclaimed him the GOAT (greatest of all time).  Some snickered at this notion with Rafael Nadal unable to reach the destination that had seemed his birthright, derailed by the rangy Swede, Robin Soderling.  Even so, Federer had captured the career Slam and tied Sampras’s record of 14.   Four weeks later, he’d again hoist up the Wimbledon trophy, his 15th Slam, and again, fans declared Federer, his GOATness.

Entering the US Open, Federer does what he has done so many times.  He reached the finals and played young upstart, Juan Martin del Potro.  del Potro’s ascendancy up to the top of the sport has been meteoric.  If someone had asked you who del Potro was shortly after 2008 Wimbledon, you would have shrugged your shoulders.  From the depths of anonymity, del Potro won four tournaments in a row, two on clay, two on hardcourts, beating Andy Roddick in one, and then making a run to the quarterfinals of the US Open, losing to the fitter Andy Murray.

Like many before him, del Potro struggled against Federer.  If the tall Argentine was seeking to be the best, the best was putting him back in his place.  Federer showed his mastery of del Potro in the 2009 Australian Open in a straight set win so convincing, it made del Potro look like a junior, a boy among men.   But it didn’t take long for the Tandil native to take his huge serve and his huge forehand to bigger heights.  del Potro reached the semifinals of the French Open and took sets off of Federer, something he had never done, but did on the biggest stage.

Federer was under tremendous pressure.  Given Nadal’s early exit, he became the prohibitive favorite to win the French, but worked hard against Acasuso, Tommy Haas, and del Potro to earn his way to the finals and the title.

del Potro’s upward climb reached a crescendo when he took Nadal, coming off of rest and recovery for his knee tendinitis, to the woodshed for a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown.  Nadal had probably never felt so lost on a court to a player who had had his first victory over the world number 2 only mere months ago.  Roger also looked to take del Potro down with a one set lead and a 5-4 serve, up 30-0 when Roger made several ill-advised forays to the del Potro forehand.  Those forehands continued to seek its mark and that service lead soon evaporated and with it, the set.

When del Potro won the fifth set convincingly, there were again murmurs that Federer was on his way down, that fresh young talent like del Potro were ready to assume the mantle.  Few remarked just how close Fed was to a small Slam, winning 3 of 4 Slams in a year, for the fourth time in his career.  Had Fed won, it would have been one of those amazing years, piled upon the plethora of amazing years Federer has already had.  And this, in a year where Federer didn’t look supremely dominant in tournaments outside the Slams.

With Federer’s trouncing of Andy Murray, he’s back on top of the world.  The Australian Open had become the Slam title which he had the longest drought.  He lost last year to Nadal and the year before to Djokovic.

How does Federer’s year look ahead?  Barring injury, of course, it depends a bit on a few factors.  Number 1 is “how is Rafael Nadal”?  Nadal again succumbed to knee problems and retired against Andy Murray.  Nadal usually is good for about 6 months of play before his body breaks down and he starts losing to players that generally aren’t competitive against him.   To be out for a month less than a month into the year has to be disconcerting news.  Experts had long predicted Nadal’s bullish style was going to get him into trouble and that he’d cut his career short.   Few wanted this to be true, but with Nadal off the tour again, one has to wonder.

Even had Nadal not retired, even if he had managed to get past Murray and get past Cilic, one gets the sense Roger would have beaten Rafa because Rafa of 2010 is not Rafa of 2009.  That mental dominance that lead the Mallorcan to number 1 seemed fragile after his parent’s divorce and injuries to his knee.  Rafa has shown he can still beat most players most of the times, but when the rankings come out Monday, Rafa will see his rank as low as it’s been in quite some time.  He’ll be number 4 (due to a quarterfinal loss), while Andy Murray is number 3, and Novak Djokovic is number 2.

Would Rafa dare do the unthinkable?  Would he take a year, possibly 6 months off the tour, and try to get back to 100%?  In many violent sports, losing a player to entire seasons is commonplace.   The thought is somewhat preposterous, and yet to stretch out his career longer, it doesn’t seem like such a bad idea.  Realistically, Rafa will do like he’s done and attempt to come back in a month or so.

What about the rest of the competition?  Let’s start with Djokovic.  Djokovic had the kind of career del Potro is having now back in 2007.  He was routinely reaching the late stages of the Slams.  Like Murray, Djokovic made a US Open to the final, in 2007.  Like Murray, Djokovic lost to the hands of Roger Federer.  Unlike Murray, Djokovic went to the next Slam, the 2008 Australian Open, and came out victor.  Since then, Djokovic has had a solid, but not spectacular record at the Slams.  He reached the semis of the 2008 French, then lost early to Safin at Wimbledon, then reached the semifinals of the US Open to lose to, yes, Roger Federer.

In 2009, Djokovic lost in the quarterfinals to Andy Roddick when he retired due to the heat.  He lost surprisingly early to Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 3rd round of the French Open.  He got to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon where he lost to Tommy Haas.  He again reached the semifinals of the US Open losing to, yes, Roger Federer, once again.  All in all, two quarterfinals and a semifinal appearance doesn’t seem too bad.

Starting this year, 2010, Djokovic had a repeat of last year except instead of the heat getting to him, his stomach did.  After securing a two set to one lead over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Djokovic experienced stomach pains.  He wanted to throw up and took a medical timeout.  Apparently, this left him in no condition to beat Tsonga, and he lost the next two sets handily.   Questions about Djokovic’s health continue to plague him, but as far as results?  He’s done no worse than last year.

So why is Djokovic number 2?  Because there are stretches of time where he plays excellent ball.  He won more matches than anyone in 2009, just not in the Slams.  He had an amazing trifecta of duels against Nadal in the clay court tuneups to the French.  Although he lost all 3 encounters, he came as close as anyone to knocking Nadal off the throne.  Soderling may very well have Djokovic to thank for softening up Nadal.

Djokovic had a pretty good hardcourt year leading up to the US Open, and the Open was again his best Slam of the year.  He also played very well after the US Open and only fizzled at the ATP World Tour Finals.  Clearly, this guy has the talent to beat the best, and yet it seems Djokovic is, well, if not moving backwards, then staying still.  Djokovic acknowledged he played too much last year and it was affecting his motivation.  The big question in 2010 is, can Djokovic come back?

Juan Martin del Potro seems like the guy to beat, except injuries seem to affect him.  del Potro seems to play well in big tournaments, but this year, he went into the Australian Open with no warmup tournament and rumors that his wrist was bothering him.  It seemed good enough to get him to the quarterfinals although not without trouble.  He then faced the “next big guy” in Marin Cilic who won the match in five sets.  If del Potro is healthy, he seems like a genuine threat to do well at Slams, but it’s still rather murky now.

How about Nikolay Davydenko?  Davydenko, at age 28, has built a game that is capable of beating anybody.  This is no small achievement.  Indeed, were we not so fixated on Federer’s amazing performance, we’d truly have to marvel at how Davydenko managed to do this.  He’s got a game that bothers Federer, Nadal, and del Potro.  The one guy that seems to play him pretty even is Novak Djokovic!

With the sheen of Federer’s win not even a day old, it’s easy to proclaim him unbeatable once again.  Certainly, there are aspects of his game that have improved since the last time we saw him in earnest, so this idea isn’t without merits.

But what lies ahead.  Let’s quickly summarize Federer’s top opponents.

Rafael Nadal. The big question mark.  Even if he comes back, will he ever be the same?  He’s now become a solid top 5 player, something most players would give their right arm (despite the immense impracticality of that Faustian bargain) to be a solid top 5 player, but he and we are used to so much more.

Novak Djokovic. He’s going to be number 2 in a few hours.  He plays well for weeks at a time, but can he get his Slam mojo back?  Of the top players, he seems to have progressed the least, but he was at a pretty high level to begin with, so that may still be good enough.

Andy Murray. He’s another big question mark.  It’s clear Murray is getting better, but because he lost to a very aggressive Federer, he may have to re-assess the way he plays the game.  Is he prepared to learn to be a banger?  It seems well within his capabilities, even if it feels unnatural.  If so, it may be a blessing in disguise.  The way Murray has built his game, on speed and court coverage, is doomed to long-term failure unless he has an amazing physio like Federer who can keep his body in high gear even as he ages to 30.  A power game will allow him to play with the big boys, and his versatility should still keep many opponents guessing.

Andy Roddick. Hard to say what Roddick can do.  He’s built a very steady game.  He’s learning to volley at 28.  But he lacks the “wow” factor that leaves opponents breathless when they see him it.  He has a nearly blue collar approach to the game, hitting good steady shots backed up by a big serve.  Good enough to beat anyone outside the top 10, but not impressive enough to beat those in the top 5.

Nikolay Davydenko. A long-time member of the top 10, Davydenko improved his serve, made his volley more reliable, and continues to take balls off the rise and hit big shots to the corner.  If the Aussie Open didn’t leave him rattled, he still seems like a good bet to play well throughout the year.

Marin Cilic. Probably not ready to challenge Federer yet.  His game isn’t as big as del Potro’s but for a big guy he moves silky smooth.   Can he play a few more big matches or does he still need more time to mature?

With question marks surrounding nearly all of Federer’s opponents, Federer goes into 2010 looking pretty good.  However, we’ll see how he’s really doing as the year goes along.   Federer’s big push will be to win the French again, because if he does that, he’s going to make a push to win a Slam.  But the French is still a long way away.