With the Australian Open less than a week away, it’s a good time to look at the top 6 players and see why they will (or won’t) win the Australian Open.

Why Roger Federer will win

No one has been more consistent in the Slams than Roger Federer.  Most people considered 2008 and 2009 as “down” years for Roger Federer, yet, he still won 3 Slams and appeared in every final.  Federer’s nearest competitor is his longtime rival, Rafael Nadal, who also won 3 Slams, but did not reach every final.  This is a testament to Roger’s consistency at Slams and his good health.  Roger may struggle in a best of 3 format, but a best of 5 allows him to scrape out of close calls such as the 5 setter he played in 2008 against Janko Tipsarevic.

Why he won’t

It’s been a while since Federer has looked as dominant as he did several years ago when the only person that could beat him was Rafa, and only on clay.  Federer has spells where his forehand goes awry.  He plays a high-risk, high-reward style.  When his game is on, he can appear unbeatable, but more players are able to hang in these rallies and eventually wait for a Federer error.  Federer often starts off well but then fades as shots that were landing in fail to do so.

Like Nadal losing at the French, it’s only a matter of time before Federer loses early.  And even if he doesn’t, many players have taken victories against Federer including Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, del Potro, and Davydenko.  In other words, the next 5 players ranked below him.

Why Rafael Nadal will win

At the start of 2009, Rafael Nadal faced Roger Federer on a hard court.  Prior to then, they had only met on clay or grass.  Federer had just won the US Open beating Andy Murray the previous year, with Nadal having his usual collapse (by his standards) in the second half of the year.  When Federer fell to Nadal in five tough sets, after a herculean semifinals that exhausted both players, Federer was left to tears and people began to wonder if Federer was done for and a new champion was ready to ascend.

Although Nadal finally lost the French and skipped Wimbledon, he reached the semifinals of the US Open.  Rafa’s indoor season didn’t result in any victories, but he kept himself in contention.  Rafa’s low point came in the World Tour Finals where he lost all singles matches in straight sets.

Rafa did seem back to his game in Doha.  He took a 6-0 initial set over Davydenko, but then found himself in a tight match, one that Davydenko eventually eked out in 3 sets by being, surprise, mentally tougher than Rafa.  Even so, Rafa was more aggressive than he had been the last time the two played and he won the Abu Dhabi exhibition the week before.  In other words, Rafa is playing pretty good.

Why he won’t

Rafa hasn’t won a tournament since Rome.  For a player of Rafa’s caliber, this is surprising, but was mostly due to injury that took him off the tour from Wimbledon until a few weeks before the US Open, then took him off the tour just after the US Open for a few weeks until the serious tournaments started in Asia.

But the bigger problem is the number of players that were suddenly able to beat Rafa on a hard court.  One should count Federer, but Roger hasn’t played Rafa on hard courts since, well, since last year’s Australian Open.  But look at the number of players that have beaten Rafa on hard courts: Marin Cilic, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Martin del Potro, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling.  That’s a lot. Even if Rafa is still king of clay, he is more vulnerable on hard courts to more people.  Just the fact so many players have beaten Rafa on hard courts means it’s that much tougher for Rafa to win.  The one plus?  Because of seeding, he doesn’t have to play them all.

Why Novak Djokovic will win

Djokovic played really well in two different periods of time last year.  He played very well in the clay court season leading up to the French.  He reached two finals and one semifinals of the three ATP 500 events.  The trouble?  He lost each of those matches to Rafael Nadal.

He also played very well from the US Open onward.  Sure, he played a pretty tame semifinal to lose to Roger Federer at the US Open, but he reached the US Open semifinal.  He also won in Basel (over Federer) and in Paris and in Beijing.

Novak also won more matches than anyone else last year.  Although he briefly lost his number 3 ranking to Andy Murray due to somewhat poor results at the start of the year when he was still trying to get used to his new Head racquet, he was back at number 3 by the end of the year.

Why he won’t

Although Djokovic had a meteoric rise in the rankings due to his great results in 2007, 2009 wasn’t nearly as kind to Djokovic.  He retired in quarters to Andy Roddick at the Australian Open.  He lost in the third round of the French Open to Philipp Kohlschreiber.  He lost in the quarters to Tommy Haas.  His best showing was a semifinal appearance in the US Open, a loss to Roger Federer.  Djokovic also failed to make the semifinals of the World Tour Finals.  In other words, Novak has had problems playing in the big tournaments.  Novak hired Todd Martin about halfway through last year, and he’s been looking to address his tolerance to heat and humidity.  The question is whether he’s ready to get back to his winning ways.

Why Juan Martin del Potro will win

Juan Martin del Potro did it first.  He pulled the Federer-Nadal double, beating them both in the same tournament, and it was a Slam, at that.  More than that, he pummeled Nadal, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2, in the US Open semifinals.  He hits the hardest forehand in the game and has a huge serve to boot.

When del Potro won the US Open, people felt, of all the challengers to the Federer-Nadal stranglehold–at the time, Djokovic and Murray were the two names mentioned most often, del Potro had the biggest upside.

del Potro tends to play well at the Slams.  He lost to Federer in the quarterfinals of the Australian, lost to Federer in the semifinals of the French, then lost early to Hewitt at Wimbledon, before beating Federer at the US Open.  Federer saw del Potro in the Slams as much as he saw Soderling (three times).  He also reached the finals of the ATP World Tour Finals.

Why he won’t

If there’s a question mark in del Potro’s game, it’s his endurance to heat.  In the 2008 US Open, del Potro lost a war of attrition to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals.  Then, he nearly wilted against Andy Roddick in the final of DC and lost to Murray again in the finals of Montreal.  Indeed, del Potro took off several weeks and didn’t play again until the US Open.

Of all the tournaments, the Australian Open is noted for its heat.  Players are often wrapped with towels filled with ice trying to fend off the high temperatures.  del Potro has the opposite problem as Djokovic.  He doesn’t usually perform as well in the smaller tournaments.  This year, he will only play an exhibition to get ready for the Australian Open.  Who knows what his form is like?

Why Andy Murray will win

So many people have said Andy Murray has a lot of talent and that he’s destined to win a Slam and soon.  Murray has had wins over each of the top 6.  His best surface is hard courts and he’s now in the start of year 3 of his new fitness regimen which is how he climbed from number 6 in the world to number 2 in the world.  Recently, he appears to have beefed up his first serve.  His wrist seems better so he’s able to attack more on both sides.

Why he won’t

Andy Murray has perhaps more variety than anyone else in the top 10.  He is also a superb mover, able to anticipate and track down shots that others would have left for done.  But, Murray has a tendency to lose to players that simply outhit him.  Federer, Nadal, Gonzalez, del Potro, Verdasco.  All these players have huge forehands.  Murray sometimes likes to tempt his opponents to go for big shots and he chases them down and manages an improbable winner.  However, his opponents are starting to figure out how to play Murray.  Some choose to hit up the middle and rob him of angles.  Some try to blast their way to wins.  His second serve still needs work and his opponents have attacked him.

And his rankings have been going in the wrong direction lately.  Shortly after Wimbledon, Murray became number 2 in the world.  But it didn’t take long before Murray slipped back to number 3, then number 4, and just this week, number 5.  True, he’s only 5 points behind del Potro, so the two are quite close to each other.  But he also lost to Tommy Robredo, once a top tenner himself, but someone Murray should beat if he’s to be considered a top player.

And 2009 feature no finals appearances in Slams.  He lost in the fourth round to Fernando Verdasco.  Admittedly, he said he was sick during the Australian Open.  Then, he lost in the quarterfinals to Fernando Gonzalez at the French.  True, clay is Murray’s weakest surface, and a quarterfinal appearance was actually an improvement for Murray.  He reached the semifinals of Wimbledon, his best showing yet.  He lost to Marin Cilic in the fourth round at the US Open.

Why Nikolay Davydenko will win

By the middle of last year, Davydenko had let his ranking slip out of the top 10, a place he had been for a number of years.  Most of this was due to an injury and getting back into shape.  Davydenko didn’t really hit his stride until the end of the year.  In Shanghai, he beat Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.  But he saved his best play in the ATP World Tour Finals where he finally beat Roger Federer, beat Rafael Nadal, and beat Juan Martin del Potro in the finals.

He then nearly duplicated this feat again by beating Federer and Nadal in Doha, and surprisingly came back to beat Nadal after losing the first set, 6-0.

Davydenko has had victories over everyone in the top 6 as well.  He beats players by hugging close to the baseline, and having superb control over the four basic shots: down-the-line forehand, crosscourt forehand, down-the-line backhand, crosscourt backhand.  Even when he is rushed, he is able to hit all these shots.  He used his speed and angles to befuddle Juan Martin del Potro who found himself unable to reach the balls that Davydenko was dishing out.

Furthermore, Davydenko has showed amazing mental toughness especially beating Nadal where Nadal had chances to win the match in the second set tiebreak, then gutted out a victory despite going down a break in the third set.

Why he won’t

Davydenko is playing his best tennis now, but he still has yet to reach a Slam final.  People know he can beat the top players in a best of 3 set match, but Davydenko himself complained how tired he was in the finals.  Is he prepared to play 7 best of 5 set matches to win?  There’s still a little doubt if he can manage to win.  Still, he has the kind of game that can bother a lot of players.

Why Andy Roddick will win

OK, so the stars will need to align for Andy Roddick to win.  He recently came off injury, so he’s fresh, but a bit rusty.  He just won Brisbane, but didn’t play anyone in the top 10 (he beat Berdych, ranked 20, and Stepanek, ranked 12th).  Even so, to win the first tournament after not playing since Shanghai has to give Roddick some confidence.

On the one hand, Roddick doesn’t have huge weapons outside his serve.  He does everything well, but doesn’t have a ton of “wow” shots.  Even so, with a good draw, he doesn’t have to meet tough players until the quarterfinals, so he just has to get through three matches to win a second Slam.

Roddick has another thing going for him.  He can handle the heat.  This lead him to the semifinals against Roger Federer.  2009 was one of Roddick’s best years, with a semifinal appearance at the Australian and a final appearance at Wimbledon.

Why he won’t

So many other players have weapons Roddick doesn’t.  Federer is flashier.  Nadal hits huge topspin and has incredible speed.  del Potro has a huge forehand.  Davydenko can hit all over the court and hits off the rise.  Murray has great anticipation and change of pace.  Even so, he’s kept in the top 10 for many years, and so it’s hard to discount Roddick too.  He certainly can beat players ranked lower than him, but he has challenges beating those ranked above him.

The rest?

The Australian Open is noted for its unpredictability.  When you have players like Baghdatis, Tsonga, Gonzalez, Schuettler have reached the finals and Johansson has won an Australian Open, you realize that, more than any other Slam, a player can come out of nowhere and play well.  Last year, that was Fernando Verdasco, the year before, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Perhaps the name mentioned most often is Marin Cilic.  Cilic had a blowout win over Nadal and defended his title in Chennai just last week.  Like del Potro, he’s a really tall player, but he moves better than Delpo.

What about Robin Soderling?  The biggest upset in 2009 came at his hands, and rather than chalk it up to a fluke loss, Soderling continued to the finals of the French.  He ended the year ranked 9th, and reached the semifinals of the ATP World Tour Finals.  Soderling kept running into Roger Federer last year in Slams and losing to him.  If he gets a good draw, he may do well.

Then, there are players that have done well before, like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco.  Is someone ready to be this year’s big surprise?

In the top 6, I’d say you have to slightly favor Federer only because he’s so consistent in Slams, then probably Davydenko, del Potro, Nadal, Murray, and Roddick.  One has to be careful about favoring players who are in form.  If that were your criteria, you’d have made Djokovic and Nadal favored in the French, yet, both lost early.  Murray was a solid bet at the US Open, but lost to Cilic.

Let’s see how it all turns out in a week’s time!