Tennis experts point to Super Saturday as the best day in tennis, but it’s been a while since Super Saturday was really super.  Everyone points to the Super Saturday back in 1984.  The day started off with Ivan Lendl playing Pat Cash.  Cash had a chance to win the match in the fifth set, when Lendl hit an improbable lob, and eventually forced the match into a fifth set tiebreak.  That was followed by Martina and Chris playing a three set match.  It ended with McEnroe beating Connors in 5 sets.  Ever since then, the US Open has been hoping something like that would happen again, and thus, the scheduling that forces men to play the semifinals 24 hours before the final, unlike every other Slam which gives the finalists a day’s rest.

Wimbledon might give the US Open a run for its money.  Unique among Slams, it gives all players a day off on Sunday, then all 16 round of 16 matches are played (men and women) on the subsequent Monday.  If you want a ticket to Wimbledon, Manic Monday is the day to go.

Let’s look at each of the match-ups.

Djokovic v Troicki

This is Troicki’s best Wimbledon probably ever.  He used to bump into Djokovic in Slams all the time, and so here he is again.  Troicki’s only win was their first meeting back in 2007.  Since then, Djokovic has won 11 straight times.  The closest match they played was back in the 2010 US Open where Troicki pushed Djokovic to 5 sets.  I just don’t see it happening.  I think Djokovic will win comfortably even though he’s not quite playing his best tennis.  The brief scare by Stepanek changed to a rout on Djokovic’s part.  I see a straight set win.

Gasquet v Mayer

Gasquet leads the head-to-head 4-1.  The one loss was back in 2004.  Mayer’s a tricky player who likes to come to net.  He’s a bit like Radek Stepanek.  Still, I have to favor Gasquet who seems to play far better on grass than his native clay.  And it seems strange he would play so well given his longish strokes and propensity to play way back from the baseline.  Gasquet’s flying under the radar and Mayer needed 5 sets to get past Janowicz.  Gotta favor the Frenchman.

Federer v Malisse

Malisse is a player a bit like Benneteau.  Solid player around Federer’s age.  When they were juniors, Federer had a tougher time with Malisse, but the long-haired Belgian is unlikely to trouble Federer who’ll want to clamp down and win this quickly.  He shouldn’t have been pushed to 5 sets against Benneteau, but Federer’s volley and Benneteau’s solid play contributed to a match that went way longer than Federer wanted.

Istomin v Youzhny

This is a toss-up.  Istomin has had better years and his rank had slipped closer to 60.  He’s moved his ranking up some with good play.  Youzhny has become one of those solid players that plays well in patches, sometimes on clay, sometimes on hard courts.  He never seems to string a good 6 months of play.  The two have met twice and split the matches.  Youzhny retired in the one match and had a relatively easy win in the other.  I guess you have to favor Youzhny being more experienced and higher ranked, but it’s a great opportunity for either to move forward.

Federer has to love his section of the draw.  In the past two years, he’s had two big serving, big hitting guy in Berdych and Tsonga.  He has neither, and a bunch of players his age who he, historically, plays well against.

Ferrer v del Potro

Clearly, the toughest match in the round of 16.  del Potro has been back a year and a half, but still hasn’t reached his dominating scary self.  In the process, however, he’s learned to play very steady tennis.  Yes, he can still serve big and pound the forehand, but he’s as likely to outrally you too.  The big man ought to be favored, but Ferrer has been playing hot tennis lately.  del Potro will be the third big server he’ll face having played de Schepper and Roddick in the previous two rounds, but Delpo will clearly be a step up in terms of ground play.

If this had been 2009, I’d pick del Potro, but with Ferrer playing as hot as he has (a semifinal run at the French and winning a grass event at the Netherlands), I’m going to lean to the diminutive Spaniard.  He’ll draw some inspiration from the Euro Cup win by Spain.  Still, could easily go 5 sets.  Delpo will want to overpower Ferrer, but he hasn’t been playing that way, by and large.  Both guys are flying under the radar.

Murray v Cilic

Because of Murray’s style, he tends to play matches a lot longer than he should.  Cilic is perhaps the best mover among the big men, but still, he’s a big man, and he doesn’t move as well as Murray.  Also, for a big guy, he doesn’t clobber the ball nearly as hard as others (say Isner).  Cilic is coming off a 5-setter so fatigue may be an issue, though he’s playing good tennis (having won Queen’s).  Murray’s still favored, but he’ll want to improve the quality of play.  Historically, Murray tends to start a bit slow as a tournament begins and play better as it runs longer.  He has a healthy 5-1 lead and certainly understands grass.  However, Cilic has given him trouble before.  If Murray serves well, which is always a big if, he could win quickly, but I see maybe a 4-setter out of this one.

And Murray’s job doesn’t get any easier as he has to face the winner of del Potro and Ferrer if he gets past this round.

Tsonga v Fish

Tsonga has been flying under the radar which is impressive given that he was a semifinalist last year, but with everyone’s attention on the usual suspects (Nadal, Federer, Djokovic), Tsonga has been progressing nicely.  The two played each other at the US Open last year where Fish faded in the fifth set.  The difference?  At the time, Fish was playing pretty well.  By contrast, Fish hasn’t played since Houston.  Fish would love for the match to be played in a windstorm where his wind experience would give him an advantage.  Fish will be desperate to win despite lack of play.  Still, gotta believe Tsonga has too much firepower and has been serving unbelievably well.  Fish is a smart player, so hopefully a good match, maybe a 4-5 setter.  This is another tough match.

Baker v. Kohlschreiber

Murray made an astute point.  Rafa’s loss didn’t open up the draw as much for him as it did for these two.  Murray still has to reach the semis before Rafa’s loss can be thought of as an advantage.  Meanwhile, Kohlschreiber definitely benefited from the Rosol win.  And so did Baker.  Baker has been reasonably lucky having not played a seed so far.  Unseeded players are slated to play a seed by the second round.  Baker will play his first seed in the fourth round.

Some criticized Wimbledon for not giving Baker a wildcard, but playing qualies probably was a good thing for Baker because it got him accustomed to grass, a surface he’s had very little experience on.

I kinda think Kohlschreiber might be a little much for Baker despite this being an eminently winnable match for Baker.  Baker was helped by an erratic Benoit Paire.  However, Baker returns well and plays well inside the baseline.

Heck, let’s pick Baker.  Why not have a Cinderella to the quarters?