1. Nadal
2. Federer
3. Djokovic
4. Murray
5. Roddick
6. Del Potro
7. Simon
8. Verdasco
9. Monfils
10. Tsonga
11. Ferrer
12. Gonzalez
13. Blake
14. Nalbandian
15. Robredo
16. Wawrinka
My Pick: Nadal
Underdog Pick: Robredo
Well I’ll admit when I’m wrong. The last person I would have picked to lose before the Semi’s was Nadal… even though he did have the toughest draw. Big congrats to Del Potro, huge win… HUGE win.
Del Potro d. Nadal 6-4 3-6 7-6(3)
I had the good fortune of watching this match thanks to Comcast sports net. Nadal certainly wasn’t on his game through most if it, getting down a set and a break 2-0 before he became Nadal. If you’re someone who enjoys ANY sport and competitor you have to be a fan of this guy. Playing poorly and getting dominated, he hits one decent forehand that ends up winning the point at 0-2 in the second and gets fired up… somehow finding a way to get the break and the momentum. Nadal was on cruise control until he led 3-0 in the third where he apparently decided he wanted to be more aggressive. The errors that he had avoided for the last 9 games crept back in and gave Del Po a breath. All in all a good win by Del Po and a poor shotmaking performance by Nadal, but it’s hard to say he ever mentally dropped. I’ve seen him make that decision thirty times and he’s always been able to do it. This loss in my opinion doesn’t set him back in the least, and may be good for his knees to not play to the finals of every tournament he enters.
Murray d. Verdasco 6-1 6-2
I didn’t see the match, but that’s a pretty shocking loss for Fernando. We all remember Verdasco disappointing Murray in 5 sets in the Aussie open (and enjoyed it) but clearly a different story yesterday. These two have a history of extremely (full of breakers) close matches and absolute blowouts, with no “routine” wins. Apparently the trend continues.
Djokovic d. Tsonga 6-3 6-4
This was a very disappointing match for me, I almost wish I hadn’t seen. Djokovic AGAIN was struggling with the heat and physical fatigue, for perhaps the 20th time of his career. Djokovic will never be a dominant tennis player (top 2) in my opinion because he can’t make it through hot weather! I’m confidnet he’ll win another grand slam or two but the conditions have to be perfect. It was only about 85 in Miami and he was doneski! That was fairly disappointing, but even more so was the mindless play of Tsonga. While Tsonga was outplayed in the first and down a break in the second, it was very clear even early on in the second that Novak was hurting. T responded by missing a plethora of routine second serve returns and going for outright winners early on in points instead of working Novak around. I can’t imagine what was going through his head other than that he smelled blood in the water and wanted to take advantage. Apparently he needs to go into the video history log and find out how Roddick beat Novak at the Aussie Open for future reference. I’ve played dozens of people who were having physical problems due to the heat and/or cramping and the plan is NOT to go for outright winners while in bad position and miss easy return of serves! Had Tsonga had the mental strength of a small rodent he would have put some balls in play and ran Novak into his inevitable tap out. This loss should really, really hurt.
Federer d. Roddick 6-3 4-6 6-4
This has and always will be a terrible matchup for Roddick. Federer loves people who are big shot makers and play with pace. Roddick was very much on his game, and Fed was just… better. The trouble here is if Roddick is absolutely on fire, it plays right into Feds wheelhouse and will still lose. Roddick in my opinion needs to come up against Fed on a clay court and be willing to just make ball after ball and bore the heck out of him (like Murray and Nadal do so effectively). Obviously this is plan D for Roddick and isn’t coming out of his bag very often (nor should it) but Plan A-C results in a loss in this matchup… as you can tell by his 2-16 record. To be honest his chance to win now against Fed is greater than ever if he can turn this into a physical battle as I believe Andy is in much better shape than Roger right now.
Up Coming Matchups
Djokovic vs. Federer
Federer leads the series 7-2, and although almost always the edge should go to Fed, this one could be close. I still don’t think Roger is in proper shape to play the game he was so dominant with… but on the other hand Novak should have been out of the tournament last round due to being unable to withstand a mild heat. It’s supposed to be 88 degrees today in Miami but a bit cloudy and windy, so who knows what’ll happen with the “quit factor”. Edge to Roger but should be a battle.
Del Potro vs. Murray
First of all Murray should pay Del Potro for knocking off Nadal and giving him a legit chance to win this title. These guys are of similar age and have played numerous times as juniors… but twice professionally. Murray got the better of Del Po both times, but keep in mind DP has been having a stronger year than ever and is still working to find his form. Del Po comes into the match with HUGE confidence after beating the clear world #1 last round in a mental battle. The problem is after going into a third set breaker with Nadal, who has enough energy to go the distance against another quick grinder? I’m guessing that DP doesn’t have it in him. Murray cruised to victory last round and although usually willing to quit at the drop of a dime, this opportunity to win a 1000 event seems too much for even him to pass. Murray wins.
Ill be posting again before the finals and would love to hear your predictions! Also… if anyone saw the Del Po upset over Nadal, please let me know how and buy me a lottery ticket. Thanks
-Jason
Tsonga is a great player… but as far as whether or not he can break into the coveted top 4 in tennis in the next year: I Sell
