Has Rafa got his mojo back?  Maybe.  With his wins at Monte Carlo and Barcelona, Rafael Nadal has to be feeling good on his best surface.  Still, Djokovic came into the finals with two solid wins, over Tsonga and Federer.  His loss to Rafa in Monte Carlo could be blamed on Djokovic’s personal loss when his grandfather passed away a few weeks ago, and so there was some expectation that Djokovic could play up to his best with a few weeks off to emotionally recover.

The final was delayed to a Monday noon start due to a rain delay that caused the completion of the women’s final to be delayed a few hours.  When conditions were not favorable for an evening start, both players agreed to play the following day.

Stats show that Rafa really succeeded in attacking Djokovic’s second serve, something that Djokovic has been able to do to Nadal.  Djokovic only won about 1/3 of his second serve points.  Djokovic only had one break point in the first set, but converted on that break.  Meanwhile, Rafa had 5 break opportunities and converted twice.

The second set was, in some ways, better for Djokovic.  He had 6 chances to break, but converted on none.  Meanwhile, Rafa converted on both break opportunities against Djokovic.

Djokovic did only mildly better protecting his second serve in the second set, winning 40% of second serves.

It didn’t help that Djokovic made numerous unforced errors.  He seemed keen on hitting big shots, and didn’t want to get into prolonged rallies.  These were errors he wasn’t making last year.  To be fair, Rafa seemed eager to play longer, crosscourt shots and play a bit more offensive off the ground, rather than play neutral balls up the middle which he used to do a few years ago when his ability to run was enough to fend off threats.  Indeed, Nadal relied on his defense again as he retrieved shot after shot as Djokovic attempted to attack.

With this win, Rafa moves ahead of Roger Federer heading into the French Open and will be the number 2 seed.  Federer is still within striking distance of number 2 falling about 300 points behind Rafa.

Rafa also becomes, again, the favorite to win the French Open.  By play, Roger Federer is playing the second best, but Djokovic is up there too, with a win over Federer.  Murray has had an indifferent clay warmup, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he failed to reach the semis of the French, especially with players like Berdych and Tsonga in the event.