If you were to place a bet on who had a better chance to beat Rafa on clay, Djokovic or Federer, who would you pick?  Federer has only beaten Rafa on clay sparingly.  In Hamburg some number of years ago, and in Madrid, during its inaugural start.  He may have another win here or there, but Rafa has been Rafa because he’s beaten Fed on clay.  It’s even odds for Federer on any surface outside of grass or fast indoors.

Because of the Olympics, the ranking points are dropping prior to the tournament instead of being replaced after the tournament ends.  Thus the points that everyone had earned in Rome last year, including Djokovic’s winner points and Rafa’s finalist points have all dropped off.  This is one reason Federer was able to move ahead of Rafa (since he had so few points drop off due to an early loss).

Here’s the deal.  Roger stands 325 points ahead of Rafa.  Should Djokovic win, he’ll get 1000 points, and Rafa will get 600 points.  Federer, after losing in the semis, would get 360 points.  The difference between Rafa and Roger would be 240 points.  Given the top 4 take the week off before the start of the French Open, that would leave Roger at number 2.  Now, it’s no guarantee that Djokovic will win, but if he does, Roger would be in pretty solid shape heading into the French.

He would have to hope for one more bit of luck and that is for Rafa to end up in Djokovic’s side of the draw.  If Djokovic and Roger are #1 and #2, it prevents something that has occurred numerous times except a handful of times (including this year’s Australian Open) which is Djokovic and Roger being in the same half of the draw.  Indeed, in all of 2011, Djokovic and Federer were in the same half of the draw.

To be fair, the odds of Roger meeting Rafa are the same regardless of whether he number 2 or number 3 in the seeding, and Roger may still not avoid meeting both of them, though it now becomes a possibility to avoid one of the two should Rafa end in Djokovic’s half.

Of course, this could all be moot if Rafa beats Djokovic and regains the number 2 ranking plus momentum heading into the French Open.  But it’s something that hasn’t happened to Roger, nor Rafa, in some time.