Ever since the US Open, Roger Federer has been playing some solid tennis.  Indeed, even if you include the US Open, Roger Federer came within a hair of beating Djokovic.  Only a go-for-broke return by Djokovic followed by a dig-out return and a Federer slap shot that clipped the net causing the ball to fall out gave Djokovic enough to squeeze out of the trap Federer had set for him.  Federer would go on to win titles in Basel and Paris and defend his year-end title.  His push at the end of the year was meant to give him some chance to reach the top of the sport.

In 2012, Federer reached the semis of the Australian Open, losing to Rafael Nadal in four sets, but bounced back to win Rotterdam, Dubai, and Indian Wells, and, oh yes, Madrid.  By contrast, Federer didn’t win his second title in 2011 until Basel over a month after the US Open.  He’s won as many titles in 2012 as of last week as he had all of 2011.

Much of this has come with an improved serve that is as accurate as ever and a solid backhand.  Also, Federer does as well as anyone to beat the players he needs to beat, even players as formidable as Tsonga and Ferrer and Berdych.

Despite these accomplishments, the proof is beating players like Rafa and Nole.  This time, Fed was in the evening match against Djokovic playing under lights, something Roland Garros has yet to introduce due to late sunsets in Paris.

The first thing that hurt Federer was his first serve percentage.  Normally Roger serves in the 60% range, and can be as high as 70%.  However, he spent most of the match, especially in the first set closer to 40%.  This gave Novak Djokovic, the best returner of the game, a chance to take a lead in the point.  Federer was left defending his backhand and kept in extended rallies where he had trouble dominating.  Djokovic does such a good job keeping even and not falling behind.  Even when he does, Djokovic can pull out a awesome shot like his down the line winner off a down the line aggressive shot by Federer.

Djokovic got a break early on.  You would see Federer get into a long rally, then go for an aggressive shot that would land out, and this happened time and again.  Djokovic secured a second break to take the first set, 6-2.

In the second set, Djokovic got ahead a break ahead again.  It took Federer almost to the end of the set to string together good points where he could get the break back and push the match into a tiebreak.  However, Djokovic played a few good points and ultimately secured the win.

The question, concerning Djokovic, prior to the start of the tournament was how his game was.  Djokovic made it to the finals of Monte Carlo, but the death of his grandfather just before the start of the tournament left his game a bit awry, and this lead to a lot of errors in the final.  Nadal was able to secure a win after seven consecutive losses.

Djokovic had only one “bad” match which was a set loss to Monaco, but he rebounded to win sets 2 and 3 easily, then he had a solid win over both Tsonga and Federer.  It feels like Djokovic is back to the form that he had in 2011, but back then, he was on a roll, and that kind of winning breeds confidence.  That was especially important because Nadal was actually having a great 2011.  Nadal reached the finals at Indian Wells, at Miami, at Madrid, and at Rome.  Each time, he lost to Djokovic.

Djokovic, on the other hand, has had numerous losses in 2012.  He’s lost to Isner, to Murray, to Nadal (in Monte Carlo), and to Tipsarevic.  However, I feel that he’s not that far off.  The big question is whether this Djokovic is now ready to handle Nadal.  Nadal, to be fair, didn’t win a title until Monte Carlo and that dates back to his win in the French Open.  Djokovic had a lot to do with that.

At this point, I think this win means a lot more to Djokovic than it does to Nadal.  For Nadal, this win would get him back to being confident and heading to number 1.  To Djokovic, he wants to get that mental edge, and to prove to Nadal that the Monte Carlo loss was due to his personal loss.  Now, Nadal has also worked hard to figure out how to beat Djokovic, so it’s hard to what contributed more the Nadal’s win.  Nadal gave a gracious statement thanking Djokovic for “letting him win”.  So the question is whether Nadal has found the right formula.

Djokovic wants to show that his poor play in that match was due to emotions, not due to Nadal’s good play.  Indeed, Djokovic seemed to have errors earlier in the rallies.  It’s not that Djokovic was awful, but that historically, he has been able to deal with longer rallies against Nadal.  That will be key tomorrow.

I’d say slight edge to Nadal since he’s been doing well on clay all year, but I think Djokovic has it to beat him again.