Let’s take a look at how the top four are faring then quickly talk about the other players that might make noise realizing, of course, that someone might play better than expected (or worse).
Novak Djokovic
This is difficult. Djokovic did not play that well after the US Open. Most of Djokovic’s losses came after the US Open. Djokovic lost his one match in the Davis Cup tie against Argentina to Juan Martin del Potro. Then, he lost in Basel to Kei Nishikori. Then, he chose not to play Tsonga in the semifinals in Paris. Finally, he lost twice at London, once to Ferrer and once to Tipsarevic. That makes five losses compared to the one loss he had prior to the US Open (to Federer in the French semifinals).
Djokovic only played one exhibition in Abu Dhabi where he beat Monfils, Federer, and Ferrer.
Djokovic has been saying that he has no reason to doubt he can play just as well this year as last. He is an unknown quantity, but given so many weeks off, one has to believe that, until he shows otherwise, a healthy Djokovic is still the man to beat.
Rafael Nadal
Everyone was saying that Nadal’s confidence was shot since he lost so many times to Djokovic (six times in 2011). Nadal didn’t win a hard court title in 2011, though he reached four finals (Indian Wells, Miami, US Open, Tokyo). He didn’t win a title after the French Open. In particular, he lost to Florian Mayer in Shanghai.
In Abu Dhabi, Nadal lost to Ferrer in the semis. In Doha, he lost to Monfils in the semis.
Nadal has also fared the weakest at the Australian Open where he’s only reached the finals once (in 2009). He’s lost due to injury the last two years.
Even so, Nadal is presumably healthy and tends to peak at Slams, so it’s hard to discount him. Nevertheless, the common wisdom is he’s lacking confidence even though Nadal has said in recent interviews that he’s fine.
Roger Federer
Federer looked like he was on a huge run at the end of 2011, but he looked similar at the end of 2010 and it didn’t carry over into 2011. Federer ended 2011 with three consecutive titles. Despite this run, he lost to Djokovic handily at Abu Dhabi. Of course, Federer would tell you that it’s merely an exhibition. Federer then hurt himself against Seppi and withdrew in the semis of Doha against Tsonga, only the second time he’s ever done that.
Even so, within a few days, he was over at Melbourne practicing claiming he was feeling good and that the muscle spasm was temporary. As usual, Federer lead with the sunny view that he’s playing as well as ever, which he says almost always.
Federer, much like Murray during his Asian swing, won his three titles with his opposition in less than stellar form with Djokovic still hurting, with Murray hurting even more, and with Nadal lacking confidence.
And there’s the question whether Federer can beat his opposition when they are in good form. So far, he hasn’t shown he can do this with any consistency, even when he’s playing at his best.
Andy Murray
Murray made plenty of news with the announcement of his hiring of Ivan Lendl as coach. The news has primarily been about Lendl facing similar issues as Murray, then about how any change he makes will take a lot longer than the few days he’s worked with him. Lendl has already said he’s not planning to deal with the technical issues (e.g., how to hit the ball) but more attitude and preparation.
Murray was on a hot streak of his own just after the US Open winning Bangkok, Tokyo, and Shanghai. However, he had to withdraw from Basel because of a muscle pull, then lost to Berdych, then appeared to overtrain and cause an injury just before London. However, a few days of rest seemed to heal what ailed him and he began training in Miami as he has the last few years.
Murray changed up his schedule this year. The last two years he played the Hopman Cup, an exhibition. This guaranteed him three matches minimum in singles and potentially mixed doubles. However, he opted to play a “real” tournament in Brisbane. Murray seemed off his game the first two rounds losing the opening set. He said it was due to being a bit too casual. He turned up the seriousness against Baghdatis, then Tomic and Dolgopolov and won his first title of the year.
Murray also played an exhibition match against David Nalbandian in straight sets.
Of the top pros, he has the toughest opening match, against Ryan Harrison. Even so, Harrison is not expected to bother Murray. He’s had a hard time beating top players, and is still looking for a key win.
Obviously, of the top pros, he’s the one who has the most to prove since he has yet to win his initial Slam. Although he says he’s been inspired by Djokovic, that’s just one more tough player he has to handle, and this year, Djokovic is in his half of the draw. This might be a minor relief since Nadal beat Murray in two Slam semis last year.
The Rest
This year, it feels like the competition has a better chance than in most years. Most of these are the players ranked just behind the top four.
Let’s start with David Ferrer. Ferrer is just so darn steady. He almost never loses except to players of his level. Beyond the top four, he might be vulnerable to players like Tsonga, Monfils, or Berdych. Last year, he reached the semifinals when Nadal was not in full form. He beat Nadal in Abu Dhabi, admittedly an exhibition. Ferrer just won Auckland like he did last year. Ferrer is in Djokovic’s section.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won Doha. He was a bit exhausted reaching Australia and faded in the AAMI Classic, an exhibition tournament. Still, if he’s not too fatigued, he’s been playing very good tennis the past few months. Tsonga is in Murray’s section. The main key is whether Tsonga is fully healthy. If so, he is an obvious danger.
Tomas Berdych teamed up with Wimbledon winner, Petra Kvitova, to win the Hopman Cup where he went undefeated in singles play. Berdych is more up-and-down than any player in the top ten. When he’s playing confident, he’s tough to beat. Berdych won Beijing last year and reached the semis of Paris. He also reached the semis of London. So, much like Tsonga, Berdych is playing pretty good. Last year may not have been nearly as flashy as 2010 was to Berdych, but Berdych reached the top 8, won more matches than he ever has in a year and did so by consistently reaching quarterfinals and semifinals even though he struggled to win a title. You don’t expect Berdych to win a title, but he can create problems. Berydch is in Nadal’s section of the draw.
Beyond that, I would point to two other players: Milos Raonic and Bernard Tomic. Tomic won the AAMI Classic, an 8-man exhibition as the 8th and lowest seed. In the process, he beat Berdych, Monfils, and Mardy Fish. Tomic starts off with Verdasco who is seeded. This is the critcial match for him to get past. Verdasco isn’t exactly in the form that took him to the Australian semis in 2009 and a top ten finish that year, but he’s still a savvy veteran. Even if he gets past Verdasco, he might have to play Dolgopolov, a guy who also has a quirky game and moves better than Tomic. And Tomic is in the same section as Federer. So, Tomic doesn’t have the nicest draw despite being in good form.
Milos Raonic won Chennai in three sets over Tipsarevic. He is in Andy Roddick’s section. Roddick has a particular tough draw. He opens up with Robin Haase who is a talented player. If he gets past Haase, he may play his longtime rival, Lleyton Hewitt. And if he gets past Hewitt, Raonic is looming. Bad news for all these players? They are in the same section as Djokovic. Djokovic can only meet one of these players, so he may be happy that his part of the draw is, by comparison, much nicer than Roddick’s section.
Obviously players like Mardy Fish or Janko Tipsarevic are looking to make their presence known, but right now, there’s no upward trend. Tipsarevic did reach the finals of Chennai, so he’s in better shape than Fish who opted to play Hopman Cup.
We’ll see how it all turns out soon enough!
