Out of the 12 matches played in the round robin matches, six were upsets, which is a fair bit considering who they were.

In particular,

  • All three matches David Ferrer played were upsets.  Murray and Djokovic were favored to win over Ferrer, though in hindsight, neither Murray nor Djokovic were 100%.  Ferrer was expected to beat Berdych, but didn’t (more on that in a moment).
  • Tipsarevic was not expected to beat Djokovic, but did.  It was his first time beating Djokovic.
  • Tsonga upset Rafael Nadal.
  • Roger Federer upset Rafael Nadal.

Tipsarevic came close to producing two upsets.  He had match point on Tomas Berdych and pushed a backhand volley wide.  That one point would have meant a 2-0 record for Tipsarevic and he, not Berdych, would be in the semifinals.

Even Mardy Fish, who was expected by seeding, not to beat any of the players in his group, pushed Nadal to a third set tiebreak and played Roger Federer to a third set.

Federer had said, prior to the start of the tournament that any of the eight had a good chance.  He must have sense that Nadal was flat or that Djokovic and Murray were still hurt.

The last round-robin match, Ferrer vs. Berdych, would decide whether Djokovic or Berdych would make it to the semifinals.  If Ferrer won, as expected, then Djokovic would make it to the semifinals since he had beaten Berdych earlier on (the two would be tied in wins and losses and the head-to-head would be the tiebreak).  However, if Berdych won, then Berdych would not only qualify for the semis, he would also win Group A since he would have the head-to-head victory over Ferrer.  This would mean he would avoid playing Roger Federer in the semis, as the runner up of Group A plays the winner of Group B, namely, Roger Federer.

Ferrer started off well while Berdych struggled to find his shots, making numerous errors and won off a break, 6-3.

In the second set, Ferrer got ahead a break early on, but Berdych broke back.  Ferrer again got a break to lead 4-3, but Berdych broke back again to 4-all.  Berdych then broke to take the set, 7-5.

At that point, Berdych’s confidence was growing and he was hitting very good ball, raced to a 4-0 lead and eventually took the set, 6-1.

With that win, Berdych won Group A and would play Tsonga in the semifinals while David Ferrer, who appeared to be cruising, would take on Roger Federer, a player he has never beaten in the other semifinals.

Thus, only one of the top 4 seeds, namely, Roger Federer, would make it to the semis, while the remaining three are seeds ranked below 4.

Federer is still expected to beat Ferrer.  Unlike Murray or Djokovic, Federer is still in-form, and he has never lost to Ferrer.  The other match is harder to call.  Both Tsonga and Berdych are playing well.  Berdych beat Tsonga at Beijing a few weeks ago.  It will simply depend on the form Berdych has.  He’s so up-and-down that when he’s on, he’s very hard to beat.  He does seem very motivated given his come-from-behind wins against both Tipsarevic and Ferrer to get to the finals.  But obviously, Tsonga is feeling good too.  I would give a tiny edge to Berdych, but only because of his recent win and good form.

So this has been a topsy-turvy tournament, unlike last year, which pretty much went to form.