Who knew?  Roger Federer was right, after all.  Before the tournament, he said that any of the top eight players had a chance to win the title.  No one took this seriously.  After all, only the top four players had won every Masters 1000 title.  Fish was perhaps injured.  Ferrer had lost all 3 round robin matches last year.  Murray had been on a hot streak.  Djokovic was coming back hoping to be in good form.  Nadal took off a few weeks to prep for London.

Everyone expected it to be like last year.  Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic.

Only it wasn’t.

First man down was Andy Murray.  He had injured himself shortly after Paris training for London.  He hoped he could play matches, but after his loss to David Ferrer, chances weren’t good for him to qualify, especially against Djokovic.  On Tuesday, he dropped out and Janko Tipsarevic took his place.

Second man struggling was Novak Djokovic.  Djokovic struggled to beat Tomas Berdych, but Berdych is a dangerous player, so it’s not surprising he would challenge Djokovic..  The key question is, how would Djokovic fare in his second round-robin match.  Djokovic manage to get through a few rounds in Basel and Paris, but he struggled at the end from playing consecutive days.

However, he was favored to beat David Ferrer.  Ferrer was the surprise winner when Murray played less than his best and because he was 1-0 and Djokovic was 1-0, they were scheduled to play the second of the round-robin matches (the tournament schedules the undefeated players from the initial round to play the second round).

The match started out even.  Djokovic was up 3-2, on serve, and then only won one more game the rest of the way.  He had 33 unforced errors to 11 for Ferrer.  Djokovic declared it the worst match he had played all year.  He is, indeed, in danger of not qualifying for the semifinals, while David Ferrer, with two straight-set wins is in.

Finally, Nadal was in a “win and you’re in” situation.  Due to being manhandled by Federer, and Tsonga winning his match over Mardy Fish, both had a 1-1 record.  The winner would be in the semifinals.  Nadal didn’t look that bad, but he seemed strangely uninvolved.  Tsonga knew that to beat Nadal, he needed to be aggressive.  He attacked the net, used his big forehand, and kept Nadal off-balance.

Despite having numerous opportunities to break, Tsonga wasn’t able to break through and Nadal forced a tiebreak.  Tsonga quickly got a lead and won the second set, winning 7 points to 2.  In the second set, the two were playing even when Tsonga suddenly felt the need to be ultra-aggressive and made a few errors and got broken.

However, the third set went all Tsonga as he got an early break, then consolidated with a second break.  He played a sloppy game with three double-faults to give one of the breaks back, but Nadal played a nervous game to get to triple break point down and eventually lost the match.

With that victory, Tsonga qualified for the semifinals, and Nadal has more questions to answer.  Nadal never seemed that into the tournament.  Fish had his chances to beat Nadal.  Federer demolished Nadal.  Tsonga played solid aggressive tennis to beat Nadal.  To be fair, this isn’t Nadal’s best surface, but he normally doesn’t struggle this much on it.

Two of the top four seeds are out with Federer being the only one that is guaranteed to be in.

This leaves Djokovic as the wildcard.

Let’s look at the scenarios for who gets in.

Scenario 1: Djokovic wins, Berdych loses

In this case, Djokovic is in as runner up, and Ferrer at 3-0 wins Group A.  This is a reasonable scenario.  Ferrer leads the head-to-head over Berdych, 5-2, although they’ve only played once in the last few years.

Scenario 2: Berdych wins, Djokovic loses

In this case, Berdych would have a 2-1 record and Djokovic would be eliminated.  Not only that, Berdych would be the winner of Group A because he would have beaten Ferrer in that match, who would also have a 2-1 record.

Scenario 3: Berdych and Djokovic both lose

In this case, Berdych, Djokovic, and Tipsarevic would be in a 3-way tie with each having a 1-2 record.  Tipsarevic would be eliminated because the rules state that if a player has only 1 win and has not played all 3 matches, they’re eliminated.  This would leave Berdych and Djokovic.  Djokovic won the head-to-head, so he would be runner up in Group A and Ferrer would win Group A.

Scenario 4: Berdych and Djokovic both win

In this case, Berdych, Djokovic, and Ferrer would each be 2-1 and the percentage of sets won would be used to rank them.  Ferrer would come out on top regardless of whether he wins a set in a loss to Berdych or not.

Let’s look at both possibilities

  • Ferrer loses in straight sets (4 set won/6 played = 67% win percentage)
  • Ferrer loses in 3 sets (5 set won/7 played = 71% win percentage)
  • Berdych wins in straight sets (5 sets won/8 played = 62% win percentage)
  • Berdych wins in 3 sets (5 sets won/9 played = 55% win percentage)
  • Djokovic wins in straight sets (4 sets won/7 played = 57% win percentage)
  • Djokovic wins in three sets (4 sets won/8 plated = 50% win percentage)

If both Djokovic and Berdych win, Djokovic can only make it if he wins in straight sets and Berdych wins in three sets.  Berdych controls his destiny.  Win in straight sets, and he’s in.

If both Berdych and Djokovic win, Ferrer is the winner of Group A regardless of how they win (in straight sets or three sets).

Summary

  • If Djokovic wins and Berdych loses, Ferrer wins Group A, Djokovic is runner up.
  • If Berdych wins and Djokovic loses, Berdych wins Group A and Ferrer is runner up.
  • If Berdych and Djokovic both lose, Ferrer wins Group A, Djokovic is runner up.
  • If Berdych and Djokovic both win, Ferrer wins Group A, and if Djokovic wins in straights and Berdych wins in 3, Djokovic is runner up, otherwise, Berdych is runner up.

Djokovic basically needs help to win.  The good news for Djokovic is that Ferrer has a pretty good win-loss record over Berdych.  If Ferrer wins, Djokovic is in regardless of whether he wins or loses.

Group B

Group B is already set to go.  Federer wins Group B by going undefeated.  Although Mardy Fish won a set, he was already eliminated, and even if Federer had lost, he beat Tsonga and Nadal, so he had the head-to-head record against the winner of that match, and would still have won Group B.

Meanwhile, since Tsonga beat Nadal, Tsonga is the runner up of Group B.