Now that we’re done with week one of the US Open, let’s look at each of the fourth round matches and the form of the players.
Djokovic vs. Dolgopolov
The two have never played each other. Djokovic has only had one serious match, and that was Nikolay Davydenko. He wasn’t pushed in either of his first two matches. He looked pretty solid in his matches though he seemed frustrated. Dolgopolov is a tricky player who can hit spins and power. Murray said playing Dolgopolov at the Australian Open this year threw his timing off. No one has better timing than Djokovic. I think Dologopolov could make life interesting for Djokovic, but I still see Djokovic making it to the quarterfinals.
Tipsarevic vs. Ferrero
Tipsarevic has had a fairly straightforward route to the fourth round. Berdych retired in the previous round, so Tipsy got a break from that. Ferrero is one of those guys who gets injured a lot, but when he comes back, he plays pretty well. That’s pretty impressive. He was pushed to five sets by Monfils, but also was gifted a retirement when Granollers was unable to complete the second set. The two haven’t played in four years. Ferrero has a 2-0 head-to-head, but each time they’ve met, they’ve gone the distance including at the Australian Open in 2006. I think this will likely be a long match and I slightly favor Tipsarevic even though Ferrero is certainly a veteran. This ought to be a competitive match
Tsonga vs. Fish
This is the first meeting between Tsonga and Fish. Tsonga has better power than Fish, but Fish is a pretty smart player. Fish handles big servers pretty well–he’s beaten Isner a few times. Tsonga has a tougher time with big servers. I think this should be the best quality match. Fish knows this will be one of his rare opportunities for a big result, and I think he’s feeling very confident.
Federer vs. Monaco
Federer had a pretty nice draw. He’s already played the toughest player in his section in Marin Cilic. Troicki lost early and Stepanek retired, which made Federer’s draw nicer than usual. Monaco is a solid clay court player, but Federer should handle him. They played this year in Miami where Federer had a close, but straight set win. I felt Federer is striking the ball well, and so this should just be more practice for him.
Isner vs. Simon
Simon just beat a tall, big serving player in del Potro. The question is whether he can do it again. Right now, I’d say Isner’s serve is bigger than del Potro. Simon is going to test Isner’s stamina and move the ball around. Isner has improved his movement a lot, but I think this should be Simon’s match to win. I expect Isner to go after bigger shots than del Potro, but that Simon’s retrieving will be a bit too much.
Murray vs Young
Murray has had a chance to avenge one of his two losses in the early US hardcourt swing. Murray beat Bogomolov in the third round. I think he’s looking to do the same against Donald Young. Indeed, one advantage of Murray playing Lopez is playing a lefty. Murray has generally played well against lefties because his brother, Jamie, who he played a lot growing up, is a lefty. I think Young will have more to show than Lopez who got frustrated after losing the first set so easily, but that it won’t be enough to beat the Scot.
Ferrer vs Roddick
Roddick has had a pretty solid US Open so far. He’s only dropped one set, and that was to Michael Russell in the first round. Ferrer is flying way under the radar for a fifth seed. Ferrer also dropped a set in the first round to Igor Andreev. Ferrer leads the head-to-head over Roddick, 5-3, including a win at Davis Cup. I’m going out on a limb and picking Roddick to win this. Ferrer, by all rights, should win this. But I feel Roddick’s been serving better and playing better than at Wimbledon, and that Ferrer might be a little light on match play. Ferrer had an injury that kept him out between Bastad until Cincy. If Roddick has something to show, this is the match to do it.
Nadal vs Muller
These two met in the third round of Wimbledon. The interesting fact of the day was that Muller was the last non-seed to beat him at Wimbledon back in 2005 in the second round. Muller hits hard and is a lefty. He pushed Nadal for two sets at Wimbledon, but then lost the third set at love. I expect something similar this time around. Nadal should move ahead.