Now that we’re through “Manic Monday”, the day where all fourth round matches are played, we’re getting to the business end of this Slam. Let’s look at the matchups.
Nadal vs. Fish
Tomas Berdych was the expected seed, but despite not having dropped a set, Berdych’s place has gone down since Wimbledon. Berdych clings to a top ten spot, but will most likely lose it after Wimbledon with his loss to Fish in the fourth round.
Ordinarily, this would be considered a win for Nadal. Nadal has never lost to Fish in 5 meetings. However, the two have not met for over a year, and this was the time that Fish lost weight and began his upward climb to the top ten.
Even that would not normally cause Nadal issues. After all, he has beaten players in the top ten. Fish doesn’t have that many weapons that will bother Nadal. His serve is big, but so is Soderling’s. He doesn’t impose off the ground like Murray does or Delpo does (Fish has beaten Delpo several times however).
But, Nadal took a tumble right before the first set tiebreak that was serious enough for Nadal to contemplate retiring. Nadal’s speed depends on pushing off hard, and that places stress on his ankles. He was able to get it taped up and played pretty well. Fish’s best chance is if the doctors say it’s not safe for Nadal to play at all. If Nadal does go on court, then I think Nadal should still come through.
Even so, it should be Fish’s best chance to get through. Like Muller, he’ll want his serve humming so he can hold his own serves.
Edge to Nadal, but it all depends on his injury.
Murray vs. Lopez
Judmoo, which is Judy Murray’s Twitter name, has been waxing poetic over Spanish hunk, Feliciano Lopez. Lopez has always been considered a tough player, but his slice backhand is generally not scary enough to bother the very best players. He’s a bit like Fernando Verdasco lite. Both have issues with being mentally tough when it matters.
Lopez stayed focused enough against Andy Roddick and served lights out. Roddick lacked the weapons to bother Lopez off the ground. Lopez then played an attacking player in Lukasz Kubot who is normally a doubles specialist. Kubot came to net a lot. Lopez dug deep to get out of this match which went 5 sets.
Murray has a 4-0 record against Lopez. Lopez has usually had one close set against Murray in each match. Still, one has to like Murray’s chances to get to the semifinals for the second year in a row. Lopez will need his serve to be humming and Murray to be off his game to have a chance. Murray’s game seems to be headed in the right direction.
Edge to Murray, should be favored even more than in the Gasquet match.
Federer vs. Tsonga
Federer has only lost to Tsonga once in 5 meetings, and that was a meltdown at Montreal when Federer was up 2 breaks. Even though this should favor Federer and I expect him to win, I think Tsonga has been playing pretty good tennis and I believe he will give Roger problems. In the 2009 Australian Open, Tsonga had gotten through some tough matches that left him a bit fatigued against Federer. Federer won easily over Tsonga who had beaten Djokovic in the previous round when Djokovic faded away.
Federer tends to see serves well which is why he deals with the big game of Tsonga better than most. Tsonga had a straight set win over Ferrer mostly because Ferrer lacks huge power, especially on his own serve, and can be intimidated against somewhat bigger servers. Tsonga plays big off the ground, and that gives Ferrer trouble.
Federer lost his first set against Youzhny partly because of sloppy play. However, he got a break in each of the next three sets and was pretty relaxed despite the dropped set. Fed will need to up his game to beat Tsonga and has the toughest quarterfinals of the four. However, Fed generally plays his best in the quarterfinals (which is why he’s reached so many semis), and he’ll want to do so to save up energy for a potential Djokovic rematch.
Edge to Federer.
Djokovic vs. Tomic
Of the players to reach the quarters, Tomic is the biggest surprise. He’s been Australia’s big new hope since forever. He’s played in Slams since he was 15. For a guy his size, which is roughly Soderling height, he doesn’t hit with Soderling power. He’s got more variety, likes to move the ball around. He is a pretty confident guy and has practiced with Djokovic. Will he be like Sampras was to Lendl? Lendl had trained with Sampras so when the two met in the 1990 US Open, Sampras wasn’t afraid of Lendl, and he had a huge serve to boot.
However, Sampras did have that huge serve, and Tomic doesn’t. Tomic might be the next great player, but he didn’t have to play anyone extraordinarily tough. He beat Davydenko in the first round who has had confidence issues since returning to play a year ago. He beat an out of sorts Soderling. He played Malisse instead of Melzer. The draw was pretty friendly.
Tomic is the youngest player to make it to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon (at age 18) since Boris Becker won Wimbledon at age 17 in 1985. It’s rare for young players to go deep at Wimbledon (Rafa reached the finals at age 20).
Edge to Djokovic.
Conclusion
I know I picked all the obvious favorites. I think Fish could win if Nadal’s injury hobbles him, but if Nadal is doing well then Fish better be playing great tennis. Beyond that, Tsonga is the highest remaining seed, but his history against Federer doesn’t bode well for him. Tsonga has the best form of the players as he was runner up in Queen’s. I think Tomic could scare Djokovic who dropped a set to Baghdatis. He claims he’s good at picking weaknesses. Not sure what he’ll spot in the Djokovic game, however.
