Perhaps it was the rain that delayed the match for an hour, dampening the court, making it bounce low, so even Nadal’s typical high loopers weren’t kicking as high.  Perhaps it was because Nadal still isn’t feeling at the top of his game despite having his best start to the year (at admittedly subpar tournaments until Indian Wells).  Perhaps it’s because Djokovic is a lot more relaxed after a stressful but successful 2011, and a good end to 2012.

Djokovic was oh-so-close to bageling Nadal in the first set.  It was only because Nadal began to fight, hit harder, try to trade blows with the confident Serb that he avoided the bagel.  He was doing it for more than just pride.  There are players, most notably Federer, who when Rafa is in a hole, but begins to dig themselves out, begin to question themselves.  They cross their fingers that their good hitting, combined with Rafa’s less than stellar hitting, they can sneak out a set.  Few players are even in the conversation that can put Rafa is a deep hole, and it’s pretty much confined to Federer and possibly Djokovic (at least on clay).

That long game to hold gave Nadal confidence, but began to dig into Djokovic’s own.  Djokovic then dropped his own serve when he tried to make something happen at net, or pulled the trigger too soon, and it seemed like Djokovic might be in for a long set.  However, Djokovic got right back to business being aggressive and broke back to take the first set, 6-2.

By the second set, Nadal needed to up his aggression if he wanted to win.  Djokovic started off confidently enough, carrying on with a 1-0 lead, but Nadal had a very solid game to tie at 1-1.  Then, Nadal’s aggressive play put Djokovic in a hole at 15-40, but with Nadal playing more aggressively, he was also making more errors.  Djokovic was able to use his own defense and win the game to hold 2-1.

However, Djokovic would play a poor game and down a break 4-2.  Djokovic managed to settle on a return game where he played several shots down the middle while Nadal regressed back and didn’t hit out on his shots.  The second set, really, ebbed and flowed on Nadal’s desire to be aggressive combined a bit with Djokovic making uncharacteristic errors or being in a zone.  Djokovic would bring the match and tie it at 4-all, but Nadal would break once again to lead 6-5 as Djokovic made a few niggling errors, errors that seemed to upset the number 1.

Djokovic took this out in the next game as Nadal missed first serves and Djokovic was very aggressive on return breaking to love, with one shot a block short angle backhand that just landed on the line.

With Nadal rattled a bit and Djokovic confident off the break, Djokovic had one mini-break.  Nadal tried to be more aggressive, but made too many errors, and eventually, Djokovic powered an inside out forehand, and took the tiebreak convincingly 7-1.

Nadal still needs time to recover mentally, and right now, those 7 months of no play have caught up with him.  Normally, Rafa gains his confidence in this stretch.  This is why it was important that Djokovic play Monte Carlo to try to dent the Nadal confidence.  Djokovic is trying to do his work now, and hope the mental havoc he might be able to cause by Roland Garros might be enough to key a victory.  It will be interesting to see how Nadal recovers.

He should play Barcelona, and that should be a title he can win, and so he might regain confidence there, but Nadal has already admitted winning titles doesn’t necessarily bolster his confidence.

With this loss, Ferrer will start separating himself from Nadal in points, and Rafa is likely to enter the French as a very dangerous 5th seed.

Meanwhile, the old king of clay in Monte Carlo is “dead”, long live the new king.