Things are different in 2013 from where they were in 2011 and 2012 at the same time.  In 2011, Djokovic opted to skip Monte Carlo and played in Serbia first (the week after Monte Carlo).  He was undefeated, but despite two victories over Rafa in Indian Wells and Miami, the pundits were taking a wait and see attitude to see if he could be Rafa on clay, thus providing the last piece of evidence that this run was special.  The two would meet in Madrid and Rome where Djokovic would show he had the right stuff to be Rafa on clay.

2012 had early losses by Djokovic, so the pressure to replicate 2011 was off his shoulders.  On top of that, the week before Monte Carlo started, Djokovic’s grandfather passed away, and he struggled with emotions.  Nonetheless, Rafa had worked hard to find ways to beat Djokovic, and he fueled that desire by a win over Djokovic, his first after 7 consecutive losses.  Rafa would show his dominance over Nole in the finals of Rome winning there as well.  Djokovic would then reach his first French finals, but Rafa was too tough.  Only the steady drumbeat of rain allowed the Serb to rattle off game after game, and had the match not been called due to rain, perhaps Djokovic would have won the title under dreary, heavy conditions which oddly enough suit his game better.

In 2013, neither Djokovic nor Nadal have come into Monte Carlo at tip-top form.  Nadal, on the surface, is having an amazing year.  He’s won 3 titles already (2 in South America, 1 in Indian Wells) and reached the finals of another.  This is his best start of his career.  However, his return came after 7 months where most of it was spent rehabbing.  Rafa looks good, but not astounding.

Indeed, in his semifinal win over Tsonga, it was Tsonga that self-destructed some, spraying balls all over, and in a match where the slimmest margins matter, a game where Tsonga failed to break missing a sideline winner by a fraction, and another point where Rafa barely clipped the baseline in a shot Tsonga thought might fall deep.

Tsonga managed to claw back from 5-1, double-break down in the second set, because he cleaned up his errors.  Despite hugely aggressive play, he was hardly missing.  Rafa was mostly winning by being patient, waiting for opportunities to attack or simply waiting for the error.  It’s the kind of match that Rafa is not likely to get for the final.  Rafa, as in the quarters, made a few uncharacteristic errors, and did not dictate points well, mostly because Tsonga was so aggressive overall.

By contrast, Djokovic had the far easier match of the two.  While Fognini is talented, Djokovic just does everything a bit better, and moved the Italian around and hit great shots.  Djokovic has said his ankle has improved match by match (an ankle that was injured during a Davis Cup tie in the US against Sam Querrey), and he’s feeling much better now.  Even so, it was probably helpful to his confidence and fitness that he was not pressed too much.

Compared to 2012, Nadal of 2013 is a notch below where he was, and Djokovic might be comparable to 2012, and feeling good and relaxed about his game.  Nadal’s opponents have often struggled with keeping the ball in play and drawing out longer points.  This is something Djokovic might be expected to do.  Try to play long, drawn-out points, and test the steadiness and endurance of Nadal.  Rafa could decide to play more aggressively, and he may need to do that anyway, just to rattle Djokovic, but he’s been a bit more cautious this whole week despite his wins.

Having watched the second set of Nadal vs. Dimitrov, Nadal had more than plenty of chances to beat Dimitrov in straight sets.  At 2-all, Nadal had Dimitrov down 0-30, and would have him down 0-30 at other points.  He was also up in his own serve, but didn’t close out his own serves as Dimitrov clawed his way to breaks.  In other words, it was as much about Nadal making mistakes as it was Dimitrov hanging tough, and Nadal temporarily lost this mental battle before partly reclaiming it in the third set.

This is why I’m leaning to Djokovic.  Mentally, I think Djokovic is in a better spot than Nadal and is hitting the ball relatively clean.  If Nadal is to win, I think he’ll have to up his level of aggression, or hope Djokovic slips some. Nadal had hoped the weather, which had been warm that week, would be warm for the final.  However, it did turn cool on the weekend, which means lower bouncing balls which favor Djokovic.  The temperatures are expected to remain cool for the finals as well.

So my prediction is for Djokovic to end the run of Nadal.  Nadal will have some pride going for him, and he has managed to escape a very dangerous match against Dimitrov.  We’ll see how it turns out on Sunday.