Often the opening tournaments of the new year tell you more about the players ranked outside the top 5 than they do the top 5.  After all, it’s not only the best of the best that use the off-season (which lasts maybe two months for lower-ranked players) to ramp up their game.  So here are some thoughts.

Brisbane

The four semifinalists at Brisbane are Murray, Nishikori, Baghdatis, and Dimitrov.  Only Murray remains of the top 4 seeds which were Murray, Raonic, Simon, and Dolgopolov.  First, Murray.  Andy Murray has been training for the first time with Lendl.  However, as usual, he seems to start tournaments a bit rough.  He was pushed by a qualifier to three sets, then a resurgent Denis Istomin played him close.  But, as befits his rank, he still won the matches.  Murray has been working not to peak too soon prior to the Slams.

Nishikori might have reached this point (top 20) a few years ago had injury not derailed his career path.  He spent a year working through Challengers, and then last year making that push to the top 20.  He plays an aggressive style that tries to move his opponent around.  He’s not into long meaningless rallies waiting for errors.  This works well given he’s not the tallest guy or the hardest hitter.  He’s got pace, but uses it to push his opponents to the edges.  Dolgopolov is just the kind of guy who could have given Nishikori trouble.  Dolgopolov changes pace and spins, but he can also belt the ball.  He lacks a bit in the mental department which can cause him to do weird stuff.

The two surprises on the bottom half of the draw were Baghdatis and Dimitrov.  First, Baghdatis.  Baghdatis should be a lot better player than he is.  Injuries tend to keep him off tour and push his rankings down.  He should be, say, top 15 in the world.  So whenever he does return, he ends up playing quite well because he’s better than his ranking, especially on faster surfaces.  He easily handled Florian Mayer and overpowered Simon.  His opponent is Grigor Dimitrov.

Long touted as “Baby Federer”, mostly due to his one-handed backhand, Dimitrov has worked hard to finally crack through.  For ages, he was mired in the 50s or so, unable to get nice good steady results.  He performed well on clay last year making it to the semis and finals, but kinda finished indifferently.  So it’s shocking that he’s actually doing very well.  The first big win was upsetting Milos Raonic.  Last year, at this time, Raonic was on his way to winning Chennai, so for him to rudely exit the tournament shows Dimitrov’s improved form.  Dimitrov easily handled Melzer whose consistency has dropped a lot since he was in the top 10.  Even so, the lefty Melzer can still pose problems.  Not for Dimitrov.  Dimitrov will face Baghdatis in the semis.  This will be a good test for Dimitrov as Baghdatis has been at this level before, so if he gets past Baghdatis, he’ll head into the Aussie Open in good shape.

Doha

The four semifinalists at Doha are Ferrer, Davydenko, Gasquet, and Brands.  Of the four, it’s no surprise that Ferrer is once again deep in the tournament.  Outside the top 4 (and Ferrer will join their ranks soon), Ferrer is the steadiest.  He rarely loses to players ranked below him which is difficult because he’s ranked 5.  It’s just that he struggles against players ranked above him.  The other 3 are surprises.

Gasquet was nearly eliminated when he beat Zemlja.  Zemlja was up a break in the third and dominating, but Gasquet’s experience pulled him through.  He had a much easier time with Lukas Lacko.  He then faced surprise semifinalist, Daniel Brands.  Brands’ rank has dropped into the mid 150s, so this tournament will be a healthy boost to his rank.  He might even avoid qualifying in Australia.  He beat Monfils in the quarterfinals, and actually had to go through qualifying because his rank was so low.  However, Gasquet edged him out 75 75 to reach the finals.  Gasquet is seen as much more of a clay courter, but he’s gone deep at Wimbledon and can play other surfaces besides clay.

The interesting result for me is Davydenko who struggled in 2010-2012.  In 2010, he was trying out a new racquet (and was injured for a few months).  All the confidence he built from winning the World Tour Final in 2009 was shattered and Davydenko’s confidence was shot.  He played poorly in 2010 and 2011 though he managed to win a tournament.  In 2012, he parted from Dunlop, changed to Asics, and went back to playing Prince, and slowly his confidence is returning (he probably regrets the Dunlop deal now, but given his looks–a timid bald man–he wasn’t getting the endorsement that even a Monfils got, so the deal was probably too good to pass).  Davydenko is starting to steamroll through the rounds, but Ferrer will make it very tough on him despite the fact that Davydenko holds a 3-2 head-to-head.  Still, if he gets past Ferrer (unlikely as that may be), it may signal that Davydenko is ready to make a push up the rankings again.

Chennai

There are a few surprises here.  The three semifinalists are currently Tipsarevic, Bedene, and Paire.  Paire is a dangerous young Frenchman that needs work on his consistency, but he did upset Marin Cilic to reach the semis.  Bedene is the real unknown who beat Wawrinka in the quarters.  Bedene is Slovenian ranked in the 80s and age 23, so he’s not super young.  The other semifinalist will come from Berdych and Bautista-Agut and is likely to be Berdych.