I’m not the kind of person that likes to predict Slams.  These tend to be “wish for” exercises.  You never know when, say, Rafael Nadal will get injured, and then all your Slam predictions go bye-bye.

Instead, I’ll try to look at the form of the top few players.

Novak Djokovic

2011 was a great year for Djokovic, at least, up until the US Open.  When the US crown was his, Djokovic was out.  He appeared injured, but willed his way to a win over Nadal.  By the following week, he tried a Willis Reed, and came out to play the reverse singles.  He lasted only a set and had to retire, thus giving the semifinal victory to Argentina.

This year, Djokovic had a great start, and played good, but not great from the clay season to the US Open.  He reached the finals of Roland Garros for the first time.  He lost to Federer in a semi again (last year, the French, this year, Wimbledon) and lost number 1 in the process.  He lost to Murray in a wind-swept US Open final.  But, unlike 2011, he played great after the US Open eventually reclaiming the year-end championship.

Given his form, he has to be the odds on favorite to do well at the start of the year.  He played his usual brand of suffocating defense.  Federer tried to outhit him, but as is often the case, the errors mounted as Djokovic found ways to make Roger hit a few more balls than he wanted to hit.

Roger Federer

2012 turned out to be a pretty nice year for Federer.  Federer had not won a Slam since his Australian Open victory in 2010.  Many questioned aloud whether he’d ever win another Slam or reach number 1.  Both seemed to require either Nadal or Djokovic to lose early.  And, good for Federer, that happened at Wimbledon.   Federer was doing a tight-wire act.  If he could win Wimbledon, Djokovic would lose enough points that Federer could reclaim number 1.

Federer achieved this sleight-of-hand by accumulating his points in Masters 1000 and London.  He won Basel, Paris, and London in 2011 to pick up 3000 points, the equivalent of a Slam and a half worth of points.  He also won Indian Wells and Madrid, 2000 more points.  The seemingly insurmountable Djokovic lead was chipped away, partly by Nadal, who was able to beat Djokovic 3 times on clay.  Federer couldn’t have reached number 1 without Nadal’s help.

Federer held on to number 1 until the year-end championship.  Once he lost Basel to del Potro, he knew it would be tough to earn enough points, especially with Djokovic and Murray healthy.  In 2011, Federer managed to stay healthy as Nadal went into his usual fall slump, and Djokovic couldn’t quite regain his high level.  Murray had a great Asian swing, but fared poorly after that.

Andy Murray

Murray surprised everyone by teaming up with Lendl.  Murray has been cautious not to give too much credit to Lendl, but under his tutelage, Murray has had his best year so far.  Murray reached the finals of Wimbledon for the first time.  Despite not having to play Nadal, Murray had a very tough set of matches to reach the final.  Murray then came back and dominated Federer, who played a marathon match over del Potro to reach the gold medal match.  Murray didn’t play great at the US Open, but he played smart, and got out of some tough matches with both Djokovic and Berdych.

For the first time in many a year, Murray did not win a Masters 1000 event.  He had been good for about two such titles a year, usually in Canada and in Shanghai.  Indeed, he tended to have poor results in tournaments leading up to Slams, but then played well in Slams, suggesting Murray did not want to tire himself out for the Slams, and the approach worked well.

Reporters asked Murray if he was concerned that he lost to Federer in the semis of London.  By that point, everyone was expecting that Murray-Djokovic would replace Federer-Nadal.  Federer continued to show up the naysayers.  That match was a bit unusual.  Murray, who has often been accused of being too passive, ended up playing too aggressive, and played into Federer’s hands.  He made way too many errors.  It’s great if you can hit hard and make every shot, but it’s certainly a style that doesn’t come naturally to Murray.

Murray is now trying to stand very close to the baseline and attack a righty’s backhand.  This is something that, say, David Ferrer does, but Ferrer is a bit more accurate hitting close to the lines.  The question is: how does Murray’s game change heading into 2013.

Rafael Nadal

Rafa’s been out since Wimbledon.  He worked hard in 2012 to figure out how he could beat Djokovic.  A combination of Djokovic not playing nearly as well and Nadal being more aggressive lead to Nadal winning the French Open one more time.  He had enough victories over Djokovic that Federer was able to sneak past Djokovic with a Wimbledon win.  But, as has happened over the years, Nadal’s body breaks down half way through the year.  Nadal blames hard courts for his woes, but it may be that he plays way too much on clay.  Federer, for example, plays Rome, Madrid, and the French Open.  He’s occasionally played Estoril, but hasn’t, as of late.  Nadal plays those 3 clay events, plus Monte Carlo and Barcelona.  Nadal has a huge win streak at both events, in particular, Monte Carlo, so he may be reluctant to skip Monte Carlo for that reason.

Rafa has only just started getting on the practice courts.  It’s difficult to say how he’ll adjust his play, if at all.  It would make sense for Rafa to play more aggressively, take more chances, and end the points quicker.  Historically, Rafa gets back to playing good tennis quickly, mostly because he has pretty brutal training sessions.  Unlike Federer, who often treats practice sessions at tournaments as a light hit-around, Rafa prefers to go all out.

Rafa is expected to play the Australian Open.  He may still retain his 4th seed, impressive given that he played only 6 months of 2012.  He’s the biggest question mark in terms of getting back to top play.

David Ferrer

Ferrer, at age 30, has had the best year of his life.  He won 7 tournaments, including his first-ever Master 1000 titles.  He reached the semis of the French for the first time, and the US Open for the second time.  Ferrer showed his incredible stamina by winning at Valencia, a tournament he co-runs with Ferrero and Conchita Martinez, then Paris, his first Masters 1000, then London, and finally, Davis Cup.  Spain has occasionally been accused of juicing up, sometimes with mere speculation, as with Yannick Noah’s accusations last year, but while Rafa is the one that often gets the wary eye, it’s Ferrer’s endurance that should be a touch suspect.

Ferrer showed an interesting side of himself against Berdych.  Ferrer is normally a very good retriever, that plays certain patterns, trying to open the court with inside-out forehands.  Against Berdych, he upped the level of aggression, playing close to the lines, and making short work of the Czech who had few answers.  Was this a preview of the way Ferrer wants to play?

This is Ferrer’s third solid year, his best ever.  Depending on how Nadal does in Australia, Ferrer may overtake his countryman and become the top Spaniard.

The Rest

The rest of the usual suspects continued to have solid years, but not break through.  Berdych made the year-end championship for the third year in a row.  Tsonga also reached London in consecutive years.  Tipsarevic, who broke into the top ten in 2011, managed to stay in the top ten for another year.  It will be interesting to see if he can stay there, given his style of play.

Monfils ended the year injured again.  Soderling has not been on tour since July 2011.  Since then, he’s become a father, and has stopped tweeting about any return dates, given how many he had to skip.  Nishikori reached the top 20.  Raonic reached the top 15.  Haas was healthy enough that he got back to 21 in the world.

We saw a few newcomers this year.  There was Brian Baker who spent years off the tour trying to get well enough to play again.  He had surprise results at Nice, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon, but struggled on US soil.  Martin Klizan was newcomer of the year with a tournament win at St. Petersburg.  He might have been replaced by Jerzy Janowicz if the award were determined later. Janowicz showed amazing finesse for a guy 6’8″.  He reached the finals of Paris as a qualifier.  He may have benefited from many players losing early to prep for London (Djokovic and Murray), but at least one guy, David Ferrer, still had his eyes on the Masters 1000 prize.  Janowicz showed more promise than Lukas Rosol who hit paydirt in the one match that mattered–beating Nadal at Wimbledon by outhitting him.

Sam Querrey slowly worked his rank up.  Mardy Fish’s plummeted after a health scare.  John Isner had an up-and-down year.  Andy Roddick retired.  This left US men’s tennis in a state of flux.  Ryan Harrison didn’t improve that much.  There’s still players like Jack Sock and Denis Kudla trying to get their ranks to respectable.

Perhaps the one player that is looking to move back up to the top 5 is Juan Martin del Potro, but he struggled against the top 5.  He managed to beat Federer at Basel and at London.  His game is improving, but can he beat David Ferrer?

There are lots of questions for 2013, and they’ll be answered starting in about 6 weeks.