A month ago, you wouldn’t have expected this result.

In Halle, Berdych lost to Haas in the quarterfinals.  At Wimbledon, Berdych lost to Gulbis in the first round.  In the Olympics, he lost to Darcis in the first round.  At Toronto, he lost to Gasquet in the third round. At Cincy, he lost to Raonic in the third round.

More than any other player of his talent, Berdych can play up and down.  Some days, he strikes the ball with such effortless power that you wonder why he isn’t in the top 5.  But he does hit flatter than most players, and sometimes he doesn’t move that well.  To me, the key win was his match against Almagro.  Some may remember their match from this year’s Australian Open where Berdych refused to shake Almagro’s hand due to a perceived slight when Almagro appeared to aim the ball at Berdych.

But that’s not the story.  Almagro is a big hitter, and for Berdych to control that match with a straight set win was key.

Berdych’s resurgence did not come at the US Open, however.  Berdych decided to play Winston-Salem, the week before the US Open, something he would normally not do, but he needed confidence.  He made it all the way to the finals, and probably should have won it, but lost to John Isner.  But those series of wins boosted his confidence.

The other storyline was whether the lack of a match hurt Roger Federer.  Last year, during the French Open, Novak Djokovic did not play a quarterfinal match because Fabio Fognini had labored so hard to win his match against Albert Montanes (11-9 in the final set), that he had nothing to give, so he dropped out.  Djokovic didn’t have a match, and was upset in the next around against Federer.

This time around, it was Federer who lacked a match when Mardy Fish withdrew due to undisclosed health issues.  Federer decided not to do too much on the day he was to play Fish, then practiced a fair bit yesterday.

At the start, Federer looked relatively sharp, up an early break.  But Berdych started getting into the games, and broke Federer.  Both held serve until the tiebreak.  In the tiebreak, Berdych got out to a quick lead, and extended the lead until he won the tiebreak, and the set, that seemed so surely in Federer’s hands had slipped away.

Berdych continued to strike the ball cleanly in the second set, and got a break.  He was able to ride that break to the second set.  Federer’s errors were piling up, as he was missing forehands, misjudging backhands, while Berdych played clean and tough.

The third set also looked precarious as Berdych opened with a break.  However, Federer was able to get a hold of his game, broke back, then broke again, and claimed the third set, 63.  It seemed Federer might be back, and recover as he did back in 2009 when he went down 2 sets to none against Berdych, but came back to win in 5.

By the fourth set, you’d imagine Berdych might be a little flustered, but one advantage of having played so long is that you learn to keep your head in the match, and Berdych got back to playing good tennis.  The two played even until the middle of the fourth set when, at 30-all on Federer’s serve, Berdych made two great points to secure the break.  Berdych then served the match out at 15, and Federer, who had been favored to win the US Open, was out.

Final score: 76 64 36 63

While this might seem advantageous to Andy Murray, Murray would be the first to tell you that he lost to Berdych in Paris last year, and has lost to him in the French Open in 2010.  Berdych has more firepower than Cilic.  Murray has shown an ability to rebound, winning every other match convincingly.  He scraped by Cilic, so he might feel he can play well against Berdych, but Berdych is also the kind of player that gives Murray trouble.

Tomorrow, the other two semifinalists will be determined.  Djokovic will face del Potro, and that could be very interesting.  There’s a chance that neither Federer or Djokovic will win (obviously, Federer won’t) the title, and this could be the most open.  The other is Tipsarevic playing Ferrer in the battle of the little guys.  This is a great opportunity for both players to reach the semis.  Surprisingly, despite both players being in the top ten, the two haven’t played each other since the 2008 Olympics, which Tipsarevic won.

Ferrer didn’t make his ascent until 2010 where he won 2 titles and reached three more finals.  Since then, he’s played amazing tennis for a guy not in the top 4.  He has won 5 titles this year, the most he’s ever won in any year.

And, as Federer exits the US Open earlier than he has in many a year, continuing his disappointment at New York (having lost in the finals in 2009, then two semis in 2010 and 2011, and now in the quarters), he can still feel good that his quarterfinal streak is intact.