Some said that Federer was still hungover from his loss to Baghdatis in Indian Wells.  That loss occurred in the 3rd round.  Many chalked that loss to being ill with a lung infection.  Federer skipped Dubai to recover from a lung infection.  Doctors told him not to play for two weeks.  So there was bound to be rust.

His early loss meant that he should have had time to prepare.  Still, even fit Federer would have been a little apprehensive playing Berdych.  Given two juggernauts of the sport, Federer and Nadal, some have a preference to play Federer and some have a preference to play Nadal.  Soderling, for example, would probably be much happier playing Nadal than Federer.  Against Nadal, you feel like you have a chance to attack, if it presents itself.  On the other hand, if you make a lot of errors, you prefer Federer.

Federer has a handful of players outside the top 10 that seem to give him trouble.  There’s Igor Andreev and there’s Tomas Berdych.  Berdych has the kind of big hitting game that can go toe to toe with Roger.  Berdych often does well because Fed coughs up errors.  Against Nadal, you just don’t expect an error in 2 or 3 shots.  Nadal makes you hit half a dozen shots or more before he might miss out wide or into the net, and often you have to pressure him to make that error.

Federer, on the other hand, is always on the attack.  He plays big shots all the time.  When he’s on, he looks sublime and there’s little you can do to counter it.  When he’s off, he hits shots a bit long, a bit wide.  In a good “bad” match, Federer tends to hold serve well, making the big shots when he has to, but then struggles with errors in return games.   Federer has never been the kind of returner that Nadal or Murray is.  He plays more of a Sampras style, trying to hold serve, then waiting for a game or so to break.  The problem is his serve.  Federer’s serve isn’t nearly the weapon Sampras’s serve is.  Sampras really needed his big serve to get him out of break points.  Federer often rallies out of break points.

Against Serra, Federer looked like he might run away with the match, but in each set, let Serra break him and force him into tiebreaks.  In the tiebreaks, Fed won quite easily.

Federer again had an early break in the first set, but let Berdych break back twice.  In the first set, Federer struggled with his shot.  The second set saw Federer pressuring Berdych’s serve, threatening to break, but Berdych saved 7 break points and never lost serve.  Federer then took control of the tiebreak winning 7-3.  It seemed Federer had found his form and might run away with the third set.

Except Federer lost his serve early in the third set and had to wait til 4-3 to break back.  Federer continued to make errors especially on return game.  Federer had a 0-30 game only to have errors allow Berdych to take the lead and win that game.  In the tiebreak, Federer struggled a bit, falling behind, but then hitting a brilliant drop shot which Berdych barely got and fell over, while Federer hit to the open court.

Federer had a match point late when Berdych went inside out and appeared to hit the ball just wide of the sideline.  Berdych challenged and the call was correct by only the slimmest of fractions.  Berdych had to save match point on Federer’s serve.  Federer had to hit a second serve, then Berdych hit a solid return to Fed’s backhand, which he barely dug out, then Berdych hit to the open court.  With another error, Fed found himself at match point down and Berdych serving to close out the set.

Berdych eventually had match point on his serve.  He made a first serve, but Fed returned it well, and then Berdych his a return up the middle, and Fed drove the ball long, losing another match where he had match point.

In the end, Federer made 60 unforced errors to Berdych’s 45.  Berdych kept his focus long enough to win while Federer, being stubborn, refused to play more conservatively and let Berdych make more errors.

Final score: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(6).

Fernando Verdasco upset Marin Cilic, 6-4, 7-6(3).

Federer now finds himself in a worse situation than last year.  Federer had thought the hard court season (Indian Wells and Miami) were awful in 2009, but he lost in the semifinals in both tournaments.  Admittedly, they were to his rivals, Murray and Djokovic, but this year, with Murray and Djokovic already out, Federer finds himself dealing with the same problems that have plagued him the last 2-3 years, namely, how to deal with the errors in his game.  Federer will, once again, have to find some solace on clay.