Rafael Nadal

Last year, Rafa had a down year.  He lost to Federer on clay for the first time in a while in Madrid.  He lost in the French for the first time.  He had to skip Wimbledon.  He reached the semis of the US Open, but got pummeled by del Potro.  He didn’t win a tournament after Rome.  Most players would love to have an off-year like Nadal, who nevertheless was able to reach semifinals quite regularly.

This year, Rafa started off better, but his loss to Davydenko at Doha seemed to have rattled him.  He lost in the Australian Open to Andy Murray and had to retire.  He would not return again until Indian Wells where he’d lose to Ivan Ljubicic and Andy Roddick in back to back tournaments.

However, a return to clay signaled a return to dominance.  Nadal made easy work of the Monte Carlo field, all the more amazing considering he had not won a tournament in about a year.  I believe what happened was the usual with Nadal.  Any time he takes a long break, he is a bit shaky the first two tournaments back.  After Miami, he was probably feeling pretty good, and certainly Monte Carlo did his confidence a world of good.

Nadal then swept Rome, Madrid, and the French Open.  He skipped Barcelona which he had won 5 times in a row to keep himself in top shape.

Nadal then lost early in Queen’s to Lopez, but it seemed a strategic loss.  He already had a long clay season, though shorter this year (in terms of tournaments) than other years.  At Wimbledon, Nadal struggled in two five-set matches to two relative unknowns (especially Robin Haase, who was considered an up-and-comer, but injuries have prevented him from moving up the ranks).  Once he got past those matches, he seemed to cruise especially after beating Soderling.  Murray tried to keep up, but he lacked the aggression he would find on later in the year, and was making just enough errors to keep him from getting a lead.

Nadal took a break after Wimbledon and didn’t return until Toronto, nearly a month after Wimbledon.  Again, like his return to Indian Wells, Nadal was a bit rusty at Toronto (losing to Murray who overwhelmed him) and in Cincy (losing to Baghdatis).  He seemed error-prone as he tried to get his newfound aggression into gear.

However, things went much better for him at the US Open.  He didn’t face a particularly tough player until the final.  Nadal feasts on his fellow Spaniards, and had easy wins over Lopez and Verdasco.  Youzhny was the surprise semifinalist, mostly because Murray didn’t beat Wawrinka, then Wawrinka had back to back 5 setters (against Querrey, then Youzhny).  Youzhny had once upset Nadal before Nadal got used to faster surfaces, but he was no match for Nadal.  Nadal only dropped one set, and that was in the finals against Djokovic.  Key for Nadal was an improved first serve that made him especially difficult to break.  However, that huge first serve appears to have gone away due to an injury that later developed.

Typically, Nadal struggles after the US Open but he paced himself a little better this year.  He started by playing Bangkok and lost surprisingly in the semifinals against a very aggressive Garcia-Lopez.  Garcia-Lopez was probably the lowest ranked player Nadal lost to all year (ranked around in the 50s).

Nadal nearly lost again in Tokyo against Troicki who had match points, but a nervous Troicki gave a break back and then was unable to close the tiebreak.  Nadal was disgusted at his play and took it out on Monfils in the finals.

In Shanghai, a very aggressive Jurgen Melzer beat Nadal in three sets.  Nadal didn’t play again (skipping Paris Indoors, which is considered the fastest surface on tour) until the ATP World Tour Finals where he swept the round robin (last year, he lost all 3 round robins in straight sets), beat Murray in a thrilling semifinals, leaving him a bit too exhausted to handle a confident Federer in the finals.

By taking 3 of 4 Slams, Nadal easily had his best year.  He won his fifth French, his second Wimbledon, and his first US Open, completing the career Slam.  He has yet to win a year-end championship, though he’s only played in about 4 of these events due to injury.

Roger Federer

Roger looked pretty sharp at the start of the year.  He lost to Davydenko in Doha in the semifinals but said Davydenko served lights out that match.  Federer then got a mini-scare from Igor Andreev in the first round of the Australian Open.  Federer had had a five set match against Andreev a few years ago in the US Open and managed to get his way out of that.  Despite Andreev having had a few poor months leading to the Australian, he seemed confident, taking a set off Federer and looking like he might push it to a fifth.  Federer settled down and didn’t have another tough match until Davydenko, who started on fire, then went off-kilter.  As Fed looked to wrap up the match, Davydenko started playing well again, but not enough to force a fifth set.  Fed looked very sharp against Tsonga, hitting backhand winners.  He then took a passive Murray to the woodshed.  By the time Murray was starting to play better, he couldn’t get over the hump and force a fourth set.

Federer appeared to be hitting his groundstrokes as well as ever, especially his backhand.  He used it to great effect.

As usual, Federer took a break for a few weeks, not expecting to return to tour until Dubai.  However, he got some bug, and had to skip Dubai, which interrupted his training, as doctors told him not to do anything for about two weeks.  He returned at Indian Wells and lost early to Baghdatis, then lost early in Miami to Berdych.  In 2009, he was so disgusted with his play (and he lost to much better players last year) that he proclaimed he was looking forward to playing on clay and getting off hard courts.  This year, he made no such proclamations.

Federer decided to skip Monte Carlo.  It’s the only Masters 1000 event that is optional.  Roddick routinely skips Monte Carlo, for example.  He played Rome, but lost early to Ernests Gulbis who was hitting a peak in his game.  Gulbis then had a most unfortunate injury at the French which derailed all the hard work he put in up to that point.  Federer’s woes would continue as he went to Estoril with nary a top player in sight, and lose to defending champ, Albert Montanes in the semifinals.  Despite his shaky clay play, Federer said things would be much better in Madrid.

In a way, it was much better.  Federer reached the final.  It wasn’t so much that Federer was playing that much better, but that he stopped going for big shots all the time.  It may be that Federer was already injured at this point, and he was trying to play quick points and roll the dice.  Since Fed only cares about Slams, more rest seemed better for Federer, but alas, he couldn’t find 10 days of rest in the middle of the busiest part of the tennis calendar.  Federer chose to be more patient in Madrid, and that got him to the finals, but Nadal was still on form, and although Federer kept it close, he was never seriously looking to win.

At the French, Federer didn’t drop a set until Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals.  He exited somewhat tamely.  Soderling was actually hitting the ball really well at the French.  He and Berdych were players that could “hit through” the slow surface and still get winners where others had to spin the ball and play for position.   This was the first time Fed had not reached a semi in forever.  This was also his first loss to Soderling in official play.  He would play Soderling a few more times in the year, but not lose to him.

Federer went to Halle and reached the finals where he met Lleyton Hewitt, who was making his Halle debut.  Hewitt beat Federer in three sets, the first time he had done so in many years.  Hewitt’s recent record against Federer looks very much like Roddick’s entire career against Federer.  Not many wins.

At this point, it was somewhat unclear who would win Wimbledon.  Murray had lost early in Queen’s as did Nadal and Federer had reached the finals.  I’m sure some hoped Andy Roddick might be able to play well again and that Murray might finally get through, as he somehow generally does well at Wimbledon despite a game that doesn’t seem particularly suited to grass.

Federer went into Wimbledon and nearly exited in the first round.  Federer was about to play Alejandro Falla for the third consecutive tournament.  He had beaten him at the French and at Halle rather handily.  Falla, apparently, plays a lot of shots close to the baseline, kinda half-volley groundstroking the ball.  This gave Federer all sorts of problems.  Fed was down a break twice, but nerves got to Falla the first time, and Fed felt more confidence the second time, and managed to eke himself out of a first round loss. Federer again struggled in the second round, this time against unheralded Ilia Bozoljac of Serbia,  a guy even Novak Djokovic might say “Ilia who?”.

Federer would have an easy time against veterans Clement and Melzer in the next two rounds, but then a sharp Tomas Berdych, who had been having the best month of his life, would take Roger out in four sets.  In a post-match interview, Roger would say that his back and leg were bothering him and a good rest would cure what ailed him.  It sounded like sour grapes and Berdych pretty much concurred.  Certainly, Roger always says he plays well when he beats Nadal even as Nadal might be tired.

Although Roger sounded like sour grapes, the fact was, he did play much better once he returned from his Wimbledon rest.  He reached the finals of Toronto, losing to Andy Murray, but beating Djokovic en route.  He won Cincinnati.  Everyone felt that Roger was the man to beat at the US Open, with maybe Murray behind.  Nadal looked shaky in his losses.  If you had asked who would be favored just before Toronto, many would have said Nadal, on the strength of his French/Wimbledon win.

Roger would play Novak in a weird semifinals.  Roger would win sets 1 and 3 in tight fashion, but lose sets 2 and 4 easily.  Again, Roger confessed what was going on during the ATP World Tour Finals in an interview few noticed.  It seems Roger hates acknowledging how well his opponents play especially when he thinks he’s not 100%.  Roger knew Nadal had an easy semifinal and he was the second match of the day.  He wasn’t sure, due to the weather, whether he’d play Sunday or Monday.

Fearing the worst, he expected a Sunday final and wanted to conserve as much energy as possible, so basically, he tanked sets 2 and 4 and it came to bite him.  Federer was ready to serve for the match when Djokovic, tired of losing to Federer in the US Open once again, went for huge shots that landed in.  Federer then got a little conservative, hoping Djokovic would miss, and Djokovic ended up taking the match.  For the second year in a row, Federer let the US Open slip from his hands (he probably wishes he’d approach on del Potro’s backhand when serving out the second set, last year).

Federer took another break after the US Open and didn’t plan to return until Shanghai.  As with Toronto, he played well on return.  He beat Djokovic, then pummeled Soderling.  He lost to Andy Murray, but otherwise, had a great tournament.  He then went to Stockholm, had a tough match against Wawrinka, but won the tournament to reach 64 titles and tie the number of singles titles won by Pete Sampras.

Indeed, in his last few tournaments, he was passing by a bunch of players.  Many great players finished around 60 titles.  Federer passed Agassi at 60, Vilas at 62, Borg at 63, and finally Sampras at 64.  The next hurdles are McEnroe at 77, Lendl at 94, and Connors at 109.

Federer would reach title 65 at Basel.  Base would prove tough because last year, Djokovic came to town and took down Federer in the finals.  Djokovic would reach the finals again, take Roger to 3 sets, but go down tamely in the third.  Federer played Djokovic at Shanghai, Basel, the US Open, and the ATP World Tour Finals, and only lost in the US Open.  He probably wouldn’t have minded losing Basel to Djokovic if he could have won the US Open.

Federer then played a dominant ATP World Tour Finals.  He beat his rivals Soderling and Ferrer handily and caught Andy Murray on a bad day, dismissing him as well.   Federer then beat Djokovic in the semifinals handily and then beat Nadal in three sets in the final, capping off a great month for Federer.

Novak Djokovic

Clearly talented, Djokovic tends to play very up and down due to his health.  In general, Djokovic plays poorly in high heat, and then his game picks up around the clay season.  He usually hits his stride around the US Open heading to the end of the year.  Last year, despite not reaching a Slam final, Djokovic won the most matches of any player that year, and also won 5 titles.  By contrast, this year, Djokovic only won 2 titles (Dubai, Beijing), but did manage to reach the US Open finals.

Djokovic started off the year reasonably well.  He reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, but despite taking a two sets to one lead over Tsonga, he faded badly in sets 4 and 5.  Perhaps if had won a close tiebreak, he might have made the semifinals more easily.

Djokovic would lose in Rotterdam (he took a wildcard when neither Nadal nor Murray, last year’s finalists, were going to play) and lost in the semifinals to Youzhny in two tiebreaks.  Youzhny would have one of his better years, playing well on clay and reaching the US Open semifinals.  Djokovic won Dubai when Federer withdrew due to illness and Murray played lackluster and didn’t reach the finals.

Novak went to Indian Wells and lost to a resurgent Ivan Ljubicic who was looking to win an elusive Masters 1000 title (he had 3 chances around 2006, but lost all 3 finals and finally won this one).  Djokovic tamely lost to Olivier Rochus in Miami.  Djokovic then struggled against Verdasco, losing to him in the semis of Monte Carlo, then again in the quarters of Rome.  Djokovic lost to young Krajinovic, citing allergies, in his home tournament at Belgrade, then skipped Madrid, saying he needed time to recover.  Djokovic again had good chances against Jurgen Melzer, and had a two sets to none lead, but again, his health prevented him from closing out the match, and he lost in five sets.

Djokovic lost to Malisse at Queen’s, an event where most of the top seeds faded quickly.  He would finally reach his first Slam semi of 2010 by reaching the Wimbledon quarters, beating Yen-Hsun Lu, the player that upset Roddick in the quarters, en route.  However, Berdych would take Djokovic out in straight sets.

Djokovic would lose (again) to Roger Federer in the semis of Toronto, and to Andy Roddick in the quarters of Cincy, before reaching the finals of the US Open, only to lose to Nadal in four sets.  Djokovic played well after the US Open too.

He beat David Ferrer in the finals of Beijing (this was a great year for David Ferrer, as well as Jurgen Melzer, Mikhail Youzhny, John Isner, and Mardy Fish, and even, albeit very briefly, Ernests Gulbis).  He then lost to Federer in the semifinals of Shanghai and in the finals at Basel.  He was upset by Michael Llodra in Paris, and then reached the semis of the ATP World Tour Finals where he lost to Federer again.

Although Novak only won two tournaments, he did go deep in many tournaments he played, including Slams.  He lost a bit early in all the Slams except the US Open where he maybe went one round deeper than expected.  Next year, Djokovic will be looking to beat players he should.  It’s no shame to lose to Nadal or Federer, but he has to get past players like Tsonga, Berdych, and Melzer and contend in the semis and finals.  He seems closer to reaching this goal than Murray, at this point, since Djokovic competes well on all surfaces, and has played better in Slams overall.

Djokovic can also look back at helping Serbia win its first Davis Cup ever over France.

Andy Murray

Murray’s year resembled Novak Djokovic.  He had ups.  He had downs.  He started the year off strong.  Instead of playing Doha to warm up for the Australian Open, Murray decided to play the Hopman Cup.  The Hopman Cup generally doesn’t attract the best talent.  It’s a variation of Fed/Davis Cup with one male, one female, who play singles and mixed doubles.  Andy Murray’s presence already elevated that event’s prestige by quite a bit.  Murray and Brit junior, Laura Robson, made it all the way to the finals when Murray finally lost a singles match (to Spain’s Tommy Robredo) and the duo lost in mixed doubles.  Even so, Murray looked to be moving better than ever, a product of a second year of training with his group.

Murray made it all the way to the Australian Open final beating Rafael Nadal in the quarters, then Cilic in the semifinals (who had upset del Potro), before losing in straight sets to Roger Federer, his second loss to Federer in a Slam final.

At this point, Murray was in the doldrums.  He seemed to lose all motivation.  He skipped Marseille, which was the first tournament he was supposed to play, then played Dubai halfheartedly.  He expected to play more solid tennis around Indian Wells, but unexpectedly lost to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals, then had an early loss to Mardy Fish in Miami.

Things didn’t get much better on clay.  Last year, Murray appeared to make a breakthrough on clay and was, occasionally, getting to the later rounds.  This year, he regressed some, as British press wondered if he had lost motivation to play top flight tennis.  Murray lost easily to Philipp Kohlschreiber, a formidable clay courter, but still, someone not in the top 30.  Murray tried looping high spinny balls while Kohlschreiber kept pounding away.

Murray elected not to take a wildcard in Barcelona, despite planning to be in Barcelona to do training.  He took the week to steady out his game, but ended up losing to David Ferrer in Rome.  Ferrer attacked Murray’s backhand again and again, and Murray was, at that point, unable to take the shots up the line.  Even so, Murray felt that his game was improving.  Murray again played Ferrer in Madrid, and Ferrer again, came out the victor.  Murray felt his game was good enough to give players trouble in the French Open.

Murray’s first round opponent was Richard Gasquet, a bad draw for both players. Gasquet had just started playing some better tennis and won the event in Nice, the event just before the French Open.  Many had thought Gasquet was on the road back and that he would pull the upset.  And when Gasquet took the first two sets, it looked like he might accomplish the feat.  However, Murray took a close third set, then cruised in sets four and five.  Murray would beat Chela, a one-time formidable clay courter now past his prime, and giant-killer, Marcos Baghdatis, before falling to red-hot Tomas Berdych in the fourth round.

Murray lost early at Queen’s to Mardy Fish (second time he lost to Fish in 2010), but didn’t face anyone particularly tough until Sam Querrey in the fourth round.  He still won that in straight sets, then needed four sets to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (who incidentally injured himself, and was out for most of the rest of the year).  Murray then lost to Nadal in straight sets, despite getting an early break in the third set, to lose in the semifinals for the second year in a row.

Murray didn’t return back on tour until Los Angeles.  He was filling in last minute when Djokovic, who had planned to play LA, backed out at the last minute.  Murray was still practicing in the US, but felt playing a tournament might help.  He reached the finals, but Querrey was finally able to notch a top ten victory over someone not named Roddick and defended his LA title.  Murray then went to Toronto where he defended his title, beating Roger Federer in the final.  In Cincy, Murray lost to Mardy Fish for the third time in the quarterfinals.  Fish had been having an excellent summer starting at Queen’s, and had victories in Newport and Atlanta, as well.

Andy Murray lost surprisingly early to Stanislas Wawrinka at the US Open.  The two had battled to five sets at Wimbledon last year, with Murray ekeing out a victory.  However, this time Wawrinka would take the victory and then beat Querrey before losing in five sets to Mikhail Youzhny.

Murray’s year was more up-and-down after the US Open.  He lost to Ljubicic in Beijing, but beat Federer in Shanghai.  He lost to Monaco in Valencia, where he was defending champ, and lost to Monfils in the quarterfinals at Paris.  He ended the year reaching the semis of the ATP World Tour Finals playing the best match of the tournament in his loss to Nadal, a loss that probably left Nadal too tired to seriously challenge the final.

Robin Soderling

Soderling had a very up and down year.  Once you are out of the top 4, players tend to play some weeks good, some weeks not so good.  Soderling was not in good form the first few weeks of the year.  He lost early in Chennai, early in the Australian Open, but made the finals of Rotterdam, losing to Youzhny.  He lost early in an event in France to Llodra, but reached the semis of Indian Wells and Miami.  He made the finals of Barcelona, but lost early in Rome, Madrid, and Nice, then reached the finals of the French Open once again, defeating Roger Federer en route.

He lost in the quarters of Wimbledon to Nadal, then reached the finals of the Swedish Open, lost in the third round at Toronto to Nalbandian, the third round to Roddick in Cincy, and made the quarters of the US Open where he lost to Roger Federer.  He made the quarters of Kuala Lumpur, Beijing, and Shanghai (losing to Federer again), lost in the quarters of the Stockholm Open, reached the semis of Valencia, and won his first Masters 1000 at Paris.  He lost in round robin play in the ATP World Tour Finals.

Soderling appears to peak well for bigger tournaments.  When he’s playing well, he’s usually good to the quarterfinals of nearly every tournament he plays.  Anyone who can regularly reach the quarters barring a few bad weeks, can get in the top ten.  It just shows how hard it is to consistently make the quarterfinals.

The rest.

There were other players that had good years, in parts.  Andy Roddick played well at Indian Wells and Miami and Cincinnati.  He did well in Paris, Basel, and Tokyo.  Roddick’s main problem is injury.  He gets injured a bit more often than his fellow pros.

Mardy Fish had a great summer, where he beat Murray three times this year.  As Gary-Visaman pointed out, Fish won the triple (two singles and a doubles) to get US out of a tough clay tie in Bogota in Patrick McEnroe’s last tie as Davis Cup captain.  David Ferrer started off well on the clay circuit through South and Central America, then did well in the clay events before the French, though he didn’t fare that well at the French.  He had some quality results at the end of the year, winning Valencia, a tournament that he helps run.

Jurgen Melzer had his best year ever.  For a player of his caliber (a consistent top 40 player), Melzer had never reached the fourth round in almost ten years of play.  A contemporary of Federer, he had a huge breakthrough beating David Ferrer, then Novak Djokovic at the French Open, making the semis.  He followed this up with two fourth round appearances at Wimbledon, then at the US Open, and upset Rafa late in the year, to end up just outside the top ten.

Fernando Verdasco had a solid clay season that basically ruined the rest of his year.  He beat Djokovic twice, reached the finals of Monte Carlo, won Barcelona, and made the finals of Nice, playing 5 clay tournaments leading up to the French, before losing to Almagro at the French.  This left him apparently too wearied to play the rest of the year and he was unable to make the final 8 (Ferrer was the second Spaniard in the year end championship).

There were a few non-factors.  Fernando Gonzalez, who had a solid 2009, was pretty much missing.  del Potro was actually missing.  Davydenko started off well, before injury derailed the rest of his season.  Ernests Gulbis appeared to be fulfilling some of his promise when an injury at the French Open set him back once again.  Marin Cilic had a solid start at the Aussie Open, only to play indifferent the rest of the year.

Tomas Berdych played well from Miami to Wimbledon, but then returned to his erratic self after Wimbledon.  Marcos Baghdatis had a few key wins, one over Federer in Indian Wells and one over Nadal in Cincinnati.  He would have been well-served to skip New Haven and prep for the US Open, though he had the misfortune of playing the equally hot Mardy Fish early on.

Nalbandian, Gasquet, and Hewitt, each had some highlights of the year.  Nalbandian appeared poised to return to top 20 play, and played well for about a month, but faded again around the US Open.  Gasquet continues to try to get back into top form after being cleared of charges of using cocaine.  Gilles Simon became a father and started to play better tennis, but has still yet to return to the form that saw him rise to the top 10 at the end of 2008.

A few new name popped up, including Thiemo de Bakker, Denis Istomin, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Victor Troicki, and Aleksandr Dolgopolov.  Americans played well as a group: Querrey, Fish, and Isner, all within a few points of one another.

What will 2011 bring?  Will Davydenko be able to come back at his age?  What about del Potro?  One can only wait and see.