Thoughts on Federer’s semifinal exit

When you’re called the best player ever, and your resume includes 16 Slams, a career Grand Slam, and three times you’ve won 3 Slams in a calendar year, you may forgiven delusions of grandeur.  Roger Federer still believes.  Still believes his game is good enough to win Slams.  Still believes it’s his match to win or lose.  Rafael Nadal was trained to think that unforced errors are a bad thing, but to learn that balance between aggression and steadiness, so that he doesn’t end up pushing the ball.  This is the Spanish philosophy.

Federer, on the other hand, is willing to take more chances.  Federer’s game is rarely clean.  He typically puts up many more unforced errors than his opponents.  When his game is on, then he’s very hard to beat.  He’s always looking to take a big shot and end the point quickly, and yet, he’s steady enough to avoid looking like a player ranked around 100 who does the same thing, but then hits 3 unforced errors in a row to lose a game.  Eventually, one imagines, a player will come along that goes for big shots and makes it.  The closest we have today is Roger Federer.

But being so good for so long, and believing that you can beat anyone in the world, even as they appear to have the upper hand–it’s a grand delusion.  So when fans watched the fifth set between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, a match that looked like it might slip from Djokovic’s fingers for a fourth consecutive year, they saw a man that threw caution to the wind.  When there was despair, at 15-40, double match point, Djokovic went for big shots.  He didn’t play cautiously.  He knew his game was good enough, and he just had to believe that his shots would go in.  He hit inside in, then inside out, then Roger floated a high shot up, and Djokovic hit a swinging volley inside out for a winner.

30-40.

Then, Djokovic served again, and eventually got a deep middle ball, and ripped the ball crosscourt to Federer’s forehand, but out of reach.  He later hit a drop shot that Roger chased down, he hit one passing shot, then a second down-the-line knowing a lob might lead to another tweener.  And when he held at 5-all, Djokovic felt he had dodged a bullet, and he proceeded to break Roger in the next game then hold to win the match.

Did Federer sense that Novak took bigger chances at the biggest moments?  No, he didn’t.  Roger looks at his game from Roger’s perspective.  He believed Novak is a talented guy, a guy who can make big shots, but Roger had match points, and that meant he had his chances.  The win was on his racquet.  To Roger, it’s not that his opponents played bigger.  It’s that he didn’t hit the right shots at the right time, and that he has opportunities to do that.  Roger clings to this belief strongly because it has served him well in the past.

But fans see it differently.  They see that Novak, for once, fought his way out of despair.  Fought his way out of the grips of the Swiss maestro.  Made the big shots at the biggest times.  Djokovic would joke that he hit those forehands as if he were blindfolded.  He took a crack, and the ball landed in.

Federer, as always, went to the press conference.  He answered the questions.  He didn’t quite mention what was bothering him this time.  There was a hint.  There was a hint that even now, even after playing much better than Wimbledon where he’d hurt his back and leg, he said, where he’d been branded an excuse-maker, and less than gracious to his opponent, Tomas Berdych, that indeed, even here, at the US Open, something, however minor, was wrong.

In his mind, Roger loses because there’s something wrong.  Sometime he overcomes it, and he doesn’t dwell on it any longer.  Success through adversity.  Sometimes, he doesn’t, and it seems the excuses, such as they are, give him solace that he can still continue to produce, still continue to beat the best players.  Roger has learned to be gracious to his opponents, to Rafa in particular, but even, occasionally, to Novak.  His sophistication dealing with the media sometimes seems a bit too practiced, a bit too refined, and yet just rough enough around the edges that you know that he’d rather say something far more saucy, far more Roddick.  It doesn’t come across nearly like Nadal who, despite years on the tour, still speaks a broken kind of English, and that the humility in his interviews feels more genuine, whether it is or not.

Roger can go home, whether it be Basel or Dubai, or whereever in the world a multi-millionaire can truly call home, and he can say that his game is good enough to beat the best, but it’s not so good that there’s a guarantee that he will always secure the victory.  For so long, writers have marveled at the perfection of his game, and yet, he does lose.  Those pesky errors do add up.  If he were as stingy with errors as Nadal, yet played the same game, Federer would have been a freak of nature, someone who went for big shots and always made it.

But Federer is, instead, a master of risk-taking, hitting the errors in selected spots, usually on the return game, so that he leaves himself less vulnerable.  It is, in a weird way, a re-imagining of the serve-and-volley game.  When you serve and volley, you know that some day, the opponent makes you dig out low volleys, forces a half-volley or you simply hit a weak shot and leave yourself completely vulnerable.  You make a forced error, but it is forced, and you hope the odds work in your favor.  You hope the attack leads to silly errors on your opponents and that you make more shots than you miss.

Federer has extended this philosophy to the baseline where he takes big shots even when it doesn’t make sense, and does it because he believes he can make just enough, just like the serve-and-volleyer, and that risk, if managed well, can lead to victories.

This time, it didn’t.  Federer, as he did at Wimbledon as he must have done at the French, doesn’t want to be reminded he failed to seal the deal.  He won’t watch the US Open.  He won’t ask “what if”.  He’s not so big a fan of the game that watching others gives him a thrill.  He’s no Nadal who may look at a finals and enjoy it as a fan enjoys it.

And Federer will take time off, look for more answers, give himself more reason to think that age, the enemy of the good and the great, is not yet ready to take Federer down, that his opponents, with fresher legs and different skills, are not ready to claim themselves as lords of the tennis universe.  He will continue to foster belief in himself, because that’s all Roger can do.

And some day, he imagines, that belief will be strong enough.

USO Day 13: Bryans win third US Open over Bopanna/Qureshi

On a day that marked the 9th anniversary of the attack on the US at the Twin Towers and the Pentagon (which happened 2 days after Lleyton Hewitt won the 2001 US Open) and a day where an obscure Florida preacher promised to burn the Koran (but was talked out of it), there was tennis being played.

Although the record books will show the Bryan brothers won their third US Open, it is rare indeed for a doubles team to transcend their tennis careers.  Rohan Bopanna, a Hindu from India, has partnered with a Muslim from Pakistan, Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi, and this team beat Zimonjic-Nestor en route to the finals.  When Gandhi used civil disobedience to rouse Indians to fight against British occupation and eventually secure Indian independence, it came under some strife as a Muslim population in the north split off to become Pakistan.  The two countries have gone to war with one another, though not terribly recently.

Although the alliance between Bopanna and Qureshi is meant symbolically, as two countries, normally at odds with another over religious and political differences, the fact is, they’re still a very good doubles team.  And, with the US Open always falling near 9-11 and with recent anti-Muslim sentiment, it’s nice to see that there some who choose to look past the differences.  It may only be a small thing, two tennis players playing doubles together.

Even the Bryan brothers seemed a bit humbled at the situation.  They’ve spent most of their lives playing tennis and like many, aren’t probably the most politically astute folks out there.  Still, they did the best they could given their lack of familiarity with the issue. Although the Indian and Pakistani ambassadors were hoping for a win from Bopanna and Qureshi, they gave some cloth from the respective countries to the Bryan brothers, who put them on like a shawl during their interviews.

Tennis Channel also did a very nice job highlighting this team.

In the end, tennis history may simply judge these two for their tennis and they may split as many doubles teams split due to personal issues.  But in the meanwhile, despite their 7-6, 7-6 loss, the team of Bopanna and Qureshi have the capacity to show that even people who have traditionally warred against one another can sometimes look past that and see one another as people.

USO Day 13: Two Americans in the junior boys finals

They weren’t favored to win.  Denis Kudla, tenth seed, played Agustin Velotti, the eighth seed.  Velotti had won the French junior boys championship.  Kudla trains in College Park, Maryland with Frank Salazar.  Will Hamilton of Fuzzy Yellow Balls used to work at that facility.  Kudla has been invited to be with the Davis Cup team.  He won pretty handily 6-3, 6-2.

Meanwhile Jack Sock, who was unseeded, play Martin Fucsovics, a Hungarian teen that won this years junior boys Wimbledon.  Sock needed a bit more work to win 6-3, 6-4.  He was a wildcard in the main draw because he won the Boys 18′s in Kalamazoo.  The winner of this event gets a wildcard.

Hopefully, this bodes well for American tennis.

USO Day 13: Djokovic saves match points: faces Nadal in the finals!

For Novak Djokovic, it was Groundhog Day, a day that kept repeating itself year after year with the same result.

In 2007, Novak Djokovic had had a breakout year.  He reached the semis of the French Open and Wimbledon.  He rushed up the ranks and entrenched himself at number 3.  Then, at the US Open, he made his first US Open finals.  It was a straight set win by the incomparable Roger Federer.

In 2008, Djokovic won the Australian Open, reached the semifinals of the French Open, faltered early at Wimbledon, but made it to the semifinals of the US Open again.  He had just beaten Andy Roddick and called Roddick out on some comments he made about Djokovic faking his health problems.  Although Roddick had had an abysmal summer, by his standards, losing to del Potro and Troicki, he managed to have one of his better US Opens, and he was still well-liked by the crowd.   The crowd didn’t like Djokovic’s remarks, and they mercilessly booed him.

He went into the semifinals and looked a bit flat against Federer.  The match had been moved up about an hour or so to avoid the rain that threatened to wash out the afternoon’s play.  This time, Djokovic won a set, but Roger took sets 3 and 4, and made the finals once again.

Last year, Djokovic had a subpar year for him.  He had switched to a new racquet in January.  He retired against Andy Roddick in the quarterfinals.  He had played great clay court tennis last summer, but had no energy in the French Open and was upset in the third round.  At Wimbledon, he reached the quarterfinals, but lost to Tommy Haas, the second time it had happened in as many weeks.  The US Open, again, turned out to be his best Slam, and he again reached the semifinals where he met Roger Federer for the third year in a row.

This was a peculiar match lacking energy.  Federer wasn’t playing great, and neither was Novak.  It just seemed destined that Federer would win this match.  Had it not been for a tweener hit at 0-30, the semifinal might have gone as a yawn.

And, so in 2010, Djokovic came to the US Open.  This year, Djokovic’s path to the semifinals was not so certain.  In the first round in desperate heat, Djokovic played his countryman, Victor Troicki.  Troicki had never beaten Djokovic.  But he took a 2 sets to 1 lead.  But Djokovic recovered and won in 5.  It was perhaps no surprise that the tournament organizers, who like their seeded players, put Djokovic in night matches for his next two rounds.  By then, the heat had gone away.  Although there was a near miss by Hurricane Earl, what was left behind was a week of wind, and the players had to deal with it.  And the top players managed it better than anyone.

By the time the semifinals rolled around, 3 of the top 4 seeds had arrived.  Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic.  The only missing player was Andy Murray, who faded against one of his buddies on the tour, Stanislas Wawrinka.  The one player that many thought might make a breakthrough at the US Open faded badly.  Murray will look at 2010 as a year that went badly for him after starting off so well.

Djokovic entered the match having only beaten Federer in a Slam in 2008, when mono slowed Fed down.  The last time Djokovic beat Federer was in Basel, but he had lost to him more recently in Toronto.

The match see-sawed.  The first set was close, but Roger got a late break and won it 7-5.  Then, when it looked like he’d charge to a win like he had the year before, Roger’s game broke down some, and Djokovic got one break, then another, and took the second set easily, 6-1.  Roger tightened up in the third set, and the two held onto serve until very late when Roger was able to break at love, and win the third set.

And, again, despite the lead, Djokovic was able to break twice again, and take the second set, 6-2.

But Roger played solid tennis once again in the fifth set.  Since he started the fifth set.  He had his chances at 4-3 up, and then at 5-4, Federer had what he must have thought was his destiny.  Two break points.  Two match points.

15-40.

Novak must have thought, why, why has this happened to him again.  Had he not worked hard?  Had he not been the third best player in the world?  Wasn’t Roger getting older?  Why did he have to lose to him again?

And in that moment, Novak did something that few thought he could do.  He dug deep.  He had a rally, came to net, hit a swinging forehand volley inside out and got to 30-40.  Then, he got in another rally and just belted a forehand just inside the right sideline and got back to deuce.  This was a seesaw game, but each time the score got back to deuce, Djokovic would hit a big winner.  He finally held to get to 5-all.

And with his now-or-never face on, he went for his shots again Federer and managed to get a break.  Djokovic got down early in his service game and it seemed the match would, indeed, head to a tiebreak and Roger would come back.  But instead, Djokovic came back.  On match point, Djokovic decided to go into steady mode realizing that he could outlast Federer and yet Federer would be a little concerned going for a big shot, but eventually would give in and go for that big shot.  And Federer would hit a shot wide.

Djokovic, as irreverent as he seems to be, shows his religion a bit more than most.  He wears a cross.  He often makes the sign of the cross, touching forehead, chest, and either shoulder.  He clasped his hands as if in prayer, then knelt and kissed the ground, reminiscent of Marcos Baghdatis.  He turned to the four corners to a crowd that was, yes, pro Roger Federer, but incredulous at how hard Djokovic fought.  As Jimmy Connors said, that’s what they paid for, that’s what they wanted to see.

Of course, a five set match is just something Djokovic didn’t want.  Neither did Federer for that matter.  Rafael Nadal has been cruising through the US Open without the drop of a set.

Although Mikhail Youzhny had beaten Nadal in 2006, few expected that he’d give Nadal trouble.  He is no Murray, no del Potro, nor even Robin Soderling.  Although Youzhny has played well the last year or so, Nadal is just a different player, and Youzhny is not the kind of guy that looks like he can hurt Nadal.  In particular, Youzhny doesn’t have a particularly good serve.

Nadal plowed through Youzhny in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4.

Now that Nadal has reached his first US Open, he can achieve two feats at once, and perhaps the first time a certain feat has been accomplished since Rod Laver in 1969.  Nadal can complete the career Grand Slam.  He can win a small Slam (three of four Slams in a year).  And if does this, he will have won three Slams on three different surfaces.  Roger has accomplished the feat three times, but never with the French.  Roger came close last year.  If he had sealed the deal against del Potro, he would have had his small Slam, exactly the feat that Nadal is trying to accomplish.

The good news for Djokovic, should he recover, is that he’s the better hard court player.  Djokovic has beaten Nadal three times in a row, all on hard courts.  He’s striking the ball pretty well.  Now, there’s a small chance of rain.  This will keep the weather cool.  The wind isn’t too bad.  So, Djokovic will like the conditions provided it doesn’t rain, or even if it does, the breaks might do him some good.

Now consider this.  When Rafa came back and played in Toronto and Cincinnati, his form looked off.  He was losing sets.  He was misfiring on his shots.  I felt, at the time, his uncle would come by, and figure out a way to iron out the patches, and indeed, that’s what’s happened.  He’s tamed his errant backhand and his serve got big.

I’d say Nadal has to be favored to win his first US Open, but if Djokovic is in good shape tomorrow, I think he has a better than good shot of giving Nadal trouble.  As Roger gets older, this may become the rivalry of the next few years.

Djokovic has one more weapon at his disposal.  Ever since his father donned that gaudy shirt of his son painted on his shirt wearing a shirt with an eagle on it, and his mother reluctantly wearing a similar shirt, Djokovic has been winning.  And he’ll likely wear that shirt one more time, and he’ll hope that it’s got a little more good luck for his son.

And what of Roger Federer?  He came to the US Open playing some of his best tennis of the year.  He reached the finals of Toronto.  He won Cincinnati.  He was starting to hit well again.  And he made the semifinals once again, without having dropped a set.

This is the third time this year that he has had match points and lost.  He had match points against Marcos Baghdatis.  He had a match point against Tomas Berdych.  And now, he had two match points against Novak Djokovic.  Federer will, once again, take a big break, and wonder what to do next.

In the meanwhile, Djokovic will try to make good on his talent and be more than a one-Slam wonder, while Nadal will try to add to his considerable legacy.  Hopefully, it will be a real fun match.

USO Day 11: Nadal to meet Youzhny in the semifinals

When Nadal raised the Wimbledon trophy for a second time, he knew that there was only one achievement he needed: win the US Open.  He won the Australian Open once.  He won Wimbledon twice.  He’s won the French 5 times.  Twice, he’s reached the US Open semifinals.

Historically, Nadal’s clay court victories has meant that he’s entered the US Open with wobbly knees and fatigue.  Last year, he didn’t play Wimbledon and lost early in the French.  When he came back at Montreal, he told the media not to expect his best form.  And it turned out, he was hiding an injury to his abdominal muscles.  This caused some problems at the US Open, but he still managed to get to the semifinals.  That injury, most likely, lead to a shellacking by Juan Martin del Potro.

This year, he was injured at the Australian Open, so he played minimally until Indian Wells, then he played great on clay after nearly a year of not winning a tournament.

This year, Nadal came into the US Open the healthiest he’s been in a while.  Despite some rust in Toronto and Cincinnati, which Nadal blamed on playing too aggressively, Nadal has adjusted.  He’s dialed back the aggression and gone for more consistency.

This has meant he’s yet to drop a set, and until the Verdasco match, he had also yet to be broken.  Verdasco broke him early in the first set, but then didn’t see a break point the rest of the match.  Nadal was back to fetching impossible shots and Verdasco was simply frustrated, making way too many errors to bother Nadal.

In the other match, it looked like Wawrinka might buck the trend of players that fade in the next round after playing 5 sets.  Wawa had beaten Sam Querrey in 5 sets, but got up 2 sets to 1 against Youzhny.  However, he got down a break early and didn’t seem concerned about trying to break back in the fourth set.  When he got a break down in the fifth, Wawa was done.  He did get the break back, but Youzhny broke again and Wawa couldn’t get the break back one more time.

Youzhny beat Rafa back in 2006 in the quarterfinals and reached his only US Open semi.  He reaches the semi again, but it would take a miracle for Youzhny to beat Rafa.  I don’t think he has the game to really bother Rafa enough.

USO Day 10: Federer to meet Djokovic for fourth consecutive year

The US Open seems to be Novak Djokovic’s best tournament.  He’s reached the semis for the third time in a row, and for the fourth time, he’ll face Roger Federer.

Novak struggled a bit with Gael Monfils in one set, but then he buckled down in the second set while Monfils gave in.  The third set was not that close either.  Final score: 7-6(2), 6-1, 6-2.

Roger Federer looked like he’d be in a struggle against Robin Soderling’s power, but Soderling’s consistency was affected by the wind while Federer generally server lights out, winning many of his serves at love.  Even so, there were many breaks in the match.  Roger broke once for the only break in the first set.  Then, for sets 2 and 3, Robin had one break while Roger had 2.  Roger resorted to the drop shots with mixed success, usually more positive than negative, but in the end, his 18 aces meant a lot of easy holds.

In the third set, Soderling was up a break and serving for the set when Federer broke, then held, then broke again, then held at love.  Federer has yet to drop a set this tournament.

Djokovic has almost had as much success.  His closest match was against compatriot, Victor Troicki, in the heat of the first week, where he dropped two sets, but won the critical fifth set.

It’s hard to gauge Djokovic’s form, but Federer has beaten him 3 of the last 4 times they’ve played and all but once whenever they’ve met in a Slam.  Needless to say, Federer has beaten Djokovic every time they’ve met in the US Open, including last year’s famous match with the tweener at 0-30.  It’ll be interesting to see what Djokovic can do.

Meanwhile Federer does what Federer does which is reach semifinals.  Barring a fabulous performance by Verdasco, it looks like Nadal will reach the finals of the US Open for the first time.  Nadal has tamed his wild shots and seems to be serving as well as ever, but Roger also seems to be serving quite well, and has had the virtue of playing 3 lefties, though none the caliber of Nadal.

Ah, Nadal is playing Verdasco in the quarterfinals, so I think he can get past Verdasco, especially since Verdasco had to go 5 sets.  In the other quarterfinals, Mikhail Youzhny takes on Stan Wawrinka.  Both play similar styles.  They are aggressive one-handed backhands.  They are tied 2-2 in head-to-head meetings.  Stan has won 2 matches on clay while Youzhny has won 2 on hardcourts.  Wawrinka had the tougher route to get to the quarterfinals, having played 5 sets and the later match while Youzhny won in 4 sets.

So, based on that, I’d slightly favor Youzhny to win.  If he does win, it could be interesting because Youzhny has beaten Nadal at the US Open.  Personally, I don’t think either man can beat Nadal, but they have the kind of game to bother him somewhat.  Nadal generally has to cooperate to lose (i.e., make many errors).

So far, the US Open has been a tale of two tournaments.  There was the heat of the first week which ended with a miss of Hurricane Earl, followed by the cooler temperatures but blustery wind of the second week.  Almost makes you wish there was one Slam played completely indoors, but the logistics of building large numbers of indoor courts might be an issue.

USO Day 9: Querrey unable to pull out win–loses in 5 sets to Wawrinka

These are the kinds of matches that separate the men from the boys, or at least the champions from the ones that aren’t.  Stan Wawrinka hadn’t had such a great year, but after his four set win over Andy Murray, he had to feel good about his chances against Sam Querrey.  Meanwhile, Querrey had beaten Nicolas Almagro in three easy sets, and he had to feel good about not seeing Andy Murray, despite beating Murray a few weeks ago in Los Angeles.

The draw had opened up for both men. And it turned out, both were eager to win it.  The two split the first two sets, and as the match headed towards its fifth hour, Querrey had to play catchup, holding to stay in the match, while Wawrinka played the lead man.  Up 5-4 in the fifth, Wawrinka sprinted back on the court, in high kick jog, meant to show Querrey that he was as fresh as Nadal.  Querrey, for his part, played along, getting up early to serve.

In the end, Querrey lacked enough oomph on his first serve, while Wawrinka took his chances by coming to net in a chip-n-charge reminiscent of classic Aussies, John McEnroe, and Martina Navratilova, and Querrey was unable to pull out the critical passes in the waning moments.

Final score: 7-6 (9), 6-7 (5), 7-5, 4-6, 6-4

Because of the five set marathon, the winner, Stan Wawrinka will have his hands full trying to recover fast enough to play his next opponent.  Wawrinka has long been with his childhood coach, a man who coached him since he was 8.  But recently, he changed coaches and hired Peter Lundgren who has coached Roger Federer and Marat Safin.  Perhaps this new coaching arrangement has already paid dividends.

Wawrinka will need every bit of good coaching he can get because he plays Mikhail Youzhny next.  Youzhny took out American John Isner in four sets.  He then faced Tommy Robredo today.  Robredo used to be much better, but he’s not played well in sometime.  His fellow countrymen, Verdasco, Ferrer, even Juan Carlos Ferrero and Nicolas Almagro, have had better recent results.  Robredo also got a bit lucky beating two Frenchmen that retired part way through the match.

Despite this, Robredo did try to make the most of it, and took a set off of Youzhny.  Youzhny’s results (though not recently) have been better in the last year or so.  He played well after the US Open, and had a pretty solid clay court season this year (as solid as one can have when Nadal wins most of those titles).

Final score: 7-5, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4

The other two fourth-round matches feature an all-Spaniard affair.  David Ferrer took the first two sets over Fernando Verdasco, but Verdasco has taken the third set.  Rafael Nadal is waiting for the conclusion of Clijsters and Stosur so he can take on Feliciano Lopez.  Nadal lost to Lopez at Queen’s but he didn’t seem 100% (since Queen’s is played just after the French).  In any case, Nadal should be strongly favored over Lopez to reach the quarterfinals.

USO Day 8: Federer still to drop a set with win over Melzer

Federer used to be one emotional guy.  He’d cry.  He’d yell.  He used to smash racquets.  But these days, Federer has become positively Swedish, or at least Borgian, in his emotions.  He calmly plays one point after the next.  True, when he hits a good shot, he’s still prone to a brief emotional outburst, but that’s about it.

So far, Federer has yet to drop a set in the tournament and tonight’s match with Jurgen Melzer was no different.  Melzer tried to outhit Federer, using power to achieve his aims.  And, at times, he’d get a break here or there only to see Federer break back, or clip the net to win a lucky point.  Federer’s striking the ball pretty well.  You can tell when he chooses not to run around his backhand and hit it once in a while.

Melzer tried dropshotting Federer a fair bit.  He did it successfully against Djokovic back in the French Open, but was less successful against the Fed and Fed would drop shot him.  In one rally, Fed hit a short slice, and Melzer crept forward to hit it.  Then Fed hit a deep backhand and Melzer was pushed back to deal with it.  Then, Fed drop-shotted, realizing Melzer had just been pushed backwards and his momentum wasn’t moving in the right direction.  That’s Fed for you.

The second set was the closest as both players kept holding serve.  The final score was 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3.  Melzer was the third lefty that Federer has played.  Both Dabul and Andreas Beck are lefties, as is, of course, Melzer.  If Federer is to play Nadal, he’ll certainly have had a lot of practice against the best lefties in the world.  Nadal is likely to play a few lefties too, including Feliciano Lopez in the next round, and potentially Verdasco in the following round.

Federer’s first serious match will be his quarterfinal encounter with Robin Soderling.  Seems like they always meet up.  Last year, Fed played Soderling in the French, at Wimbledon, and at the US Open.  This year, Soderling didn’t get very far in the Australian, but met Fed in the French Open (losing to him).  Soderling did play Nadal at Wimbledon, but he’s back playing Federer for the US Open.

Soderling’s style, hard-hitting with a big serve, is usually enough to topple most players.  This is one reason he goes pretty deep in Slams until he faces a player that can handle his power, which usually means encountering a top seed, and lately, that means Nadal or Federer.

Federer would love to play his best against Soderling.  Certainly, he’s playing better than at the French, so the question is whether Soderling is playing well or not.  At this point, given their head-to-head, I’d still give it to Fed to win this.

Tomorrow, Wawrinka and Querrey play around 1 PM, while Nadal and Lopez play the evening match.  Youzhny and Robredo play an early match while Ferrer and Verdasco play late afternoon.

USO Day 8: Fish succumbs to Djokovic in straight sets

In the 2 hours I was out of my place, Djokovic made short work of Mardy Fish.  Many had hoped, with his weight loss, that he would be able to give Djokovic a challenge.  Fish had been having a career half year.  However, Djokovic is often underrated as a talent.  If he had been in perfect health, he would be a solid number 3, and perhaps even number 2.  Djokovic moves well enough, hits the ball hard enough to be a danger to most everyone.

In this match, Fish and Djokovic had similar number of errors, but Djokovic hit more than twice as many winners and only faced 4 break points losing one, while Djokovic was a very efficient 6 of 8, basically breaking whenever he had the chance.

Final score: 6-3, 6-4, 6-1.

Djokovic is not entirely out of the woods.  With the heat expected to come back, Djokovic may have to play one of his upcoming matches in heat again.  Djokovic caught a break by having his second and third round match in the evening and having the weather cool down the last few days.

In the other match, Monfils steady style, though boring, was enough to beat his countryman, Richard Gasquet.  This, too, was a straight sets match: 6-4, 7-5, 7-5.  Gasquet was up a break in the second, but was unable to close the deal.

Robin Soderling is currently playing Albert Montanes.  Tonight, Jurgen Melzer takes on Roger Federer.  Half the quarterfinalists will be determined by the end of the day.

Tomorrow, the other half will be played.

USO Day 8: Fourth Round Previews

Once you get to Labor Day, you move from the obligatory early round matches to the business end of a Slam.  Those that want to seriously make a run need to get to Labor Day, when the fourth round begins.

Let’s begin with a quick recap of what happened so far.

Among those coming in with good form, Marcos Baghdatis was the surprise exit losing to French veteran Arnaud Clement.  The heat may have had something to do with it, or Baghdatis playing New Haven, or both.  In either case, after a great summer, he had a quick exit.

Tomas Berdcyh was considered something of a dark horse threat, after his semifinal appearance at the French and his finalist appearance at Wimbledon, and yet, he got totally flustered playing a guy that attacks all the time in Michael Llodra.  Had Llodra been ranked a little higher, the two would never have met in the first round, so Berdych was unlucky.  Llodra, too, got unlucky in getting a migraine while doing well against Tommy Robredo, otherwise his chances were good.

Andy Roddick’s loss to Janko Tipsarevic was disappointing as well.  He had reached the semifinals of Cincy, losing to Mardy Fish, and looked like he was mostly over his mono.  However, Roddick’s style of playing steady, error-free tennis was not good enough to beat TIpsarevic.  He’s used this style successfully, but he seems to lack confidence going for big shots, so you rarely see him do it.  In a way, it’s also why Andy Murray lost.

Andy Murray losing early was the big shock.  Really, Murray’s loss resembled Roddick’s loss with Wawrinka playing aggressive tennis.  Murray didn’t seem to feel like he needed to engage Wawrinka in power tennis, and that hurt him.  That and his inconsistency.  He didn’t look nearly as steady as he did in Cincy, nor was he peppering his shots with finesse and drop shots.  By the third and fourth set, his first serve percentage had dropped tremendously, and he wasn’t moving well, giving up loose games that he normally doesn’t lose.

The surprise of the tournament are the French and the Spanish.  The Spaniards, in particular, have made it pretty deep in the tournament.  Verdasco, for instance, must have realized that he played way too much before the French, which hurt his performance there and at Wimbledon.  Verdasco cut back his play prior to the US Open and did not have great results heading in.  But he was well-rested, and this helped him knock out one of the other hot players in the tournament, David Nalbandian.  To be fair, Nalbandian did not look that good in his loss, making way too many errors.

OK, let’s get to the previews:

Nadal vs. Lopez Nadal came into the US Open playing unsteady tennis, making a tremendous number of unforced errors.  I felt this was an anomaly and would be fixed by the US Open, which it has been.  Nadal has also come in hitting as hard a serve as he ever has.  He blamed his losses prior to the Open on being too aggressive.  He started playing more conservative in the early rounds and that seems to have righted the ship, and he’s now back to playing more aggressive tennis.

Nadal lost to Lopez in Queen’s, but grass is the most likely place Lopez can win with his low slice backhand able to trouble Nadal.  And, I felt Nadal wasn’t trying to win his match against Lopez, wanting more rest and practice before Wimbledon.  Lopez has a big serve and a big forehand, but his backhand is a liability.  Lopez will have to play perfect tennis to beat Nadal or even take a set off him.  Lopez had a pretty friendly draw to get to this point, but I think this is it for Lopez and Nadal moves on.

Ferrer vs. Verdasco This is a hard call.  The two have met 10 times, 9 of them on clay.  They only played on hard courts once, in their first meeting in Chennai, which David Ferrer won.  Ferrer won their last meeting on clay in Rome.  Both these guys were expected to do well in the French Open.  However, both lost earlier than expected: Ferrer to a resurgent Jurgen Melzer and Verdasco to hard-hitting Almagro.  I’ll favor Verdasco, but he has to play well.  Ferrer plays just steady enough and moves just well enough that if Verdasco isn’t striking the ball well, he’ll go down.  Ferrer’s main weakness is he can be overpowered.  It’s hard to do, by and large, but it can be done.

Wawrinka vs. Querrey These two last met in 2009 in Indian Wells.  Wawrinka won in a third set tiebreak, 10-8.  It’s also been their only meeting.  Querrey is playing pretty well, actually.  He’s kept a more positive outlook since losing in the first round of the French Open, and it’s lead to more wins.  Querrey, unlike Murray, will attack more, mostly because he has to.  Querrey, like Isner, uses a big serve to set up a big forehand.  The only tough part is Wawrinka’s backhand.  Querrey will hit hard inside out forehands to Wawa’s backhand.  Wawrinka hadn’t played particularly well heading into the US Open, but he’s picked up his play.  I expect this to be a tougher match for both players.  I lean just a little to Querrey to win this.

Robredo vs. Youzhny Americans love to make fun of the French for “surrendering” in World War 2, often forgetting it was the French that helped the Americans out in the American Revolution and the one that gave us the Statue of Liberty.  However, they didn’t do much to disabuse this reputation against Tommy Robredo.  Robredo faced Benneteau in the second round who retired and faced Llodra in the third round, who retired.  Robredo couldn’t be less in-form and have managed to eke his way to the fourth round.  It’s difficult to say what form Robredo has, but one really has to favor Youzhny who has, at times, played well on clay and hard courts in the last 8 months or so.  Robredo leads the head-to-head, but the two haven’t met in four years and one of Robredo’s win was 8 years ago.  So gotta go with Youzhny.

Gasquet vs. Monfils This is another one that’s hard to predict.  The two are tied 2-all in their head-to-head.  They’ve met 3 times in Metz, a small tournament in France.  The one time they met in a Slam, the 2007 Australian Open, Gasquet won in 4 sets.  Gasquet has been having on-and-off good results.  He had some solid results heading into the French Open, but wasn’t able to get past Andy Murray on clay.  He has reached a few finals this year, admittedly in small tournaments, and mostly on clay, though he did reach the finals of Sydney prior to the Australian Open.

Monfils hasn’t won a title this year, but he has reached a final at Stuttgart (on clay).  To be fair, Gasquet seems to have had the better year, though Monfils generally wins a few rounds in most tournaments he plays.  I give the edge to Gasquet because he plays more offensive tennis, but this could be a pretty entertaining match.

Fish vs. Djokovic On paper, Djokovic wins this match.  He has a 4-0 win-loss record over Fish.  Fish’s best result was one of his first, when the two played each other in the 2007 US Open in the second round.  Djokovic won in 4 sets, but needed to win 2 tiebreaks.  Much will be made of Fish’s win streak, and that he’s playing his best tennis ever.  He moves better than he has.  He has a big serve.  He can now chase down shots.  And this match is being played in sun.  But ever since Hurricane Earl rolled around, temperatures have been much milder, and so Djokovic should have a better chance of hanging in this match.

Although I think Fish has a pretty good chance to win this, I’m going to lean to Djokovic who will want a signature win in his favorite Slam.

Soderling vs. Montanes You’d think a guy that’s generally mentioned among the favorites in any Slam he enters would be talked about more.  Everyone pointed to a potential quarterfinal showdown between Soderling and Federer, but American announcers have not said much, preferring to focus on Nadal, Federer, and the Americans.  Meanwhile, Soderling, who didn’t have a great summer (losing to well-regarded players, but still), has played his way into the fourth round.  He had a first round scare against the surprisingly hard hitting Haider-Maurer, but used his experience to let his opponent make errors.  Since then, he’s not dropped a set.

The two have met 3 times, and Soderling leads 2-0.  They’ve only played in Slams, twice in the French (they split wins) and once in last year’s opening round of the US Open.  Montanes had a relatively friendly draw, getting a tough five setter in the first round, but then playing a wildcard in the second round, and having his opponent retire in the third round.  I have to believe Soderling will be too much off the ground for Montanes and should head into the next round comfortably.

Melzer vs Federer These two go way back to the junior days, but despite having been on the tour for so long, the two only met for the first time at Wimbledon, and Federer won it easily.  I don’t expect the results to be much different.  Federer has been playing pretty solid, and generally plays well against players his age.  Federer has yet to drop a set and although Melzer is capable, I expect Federer to roll in this match too.

Concluding Thoughts

Many thought Murray would contend for the US Open title, but now I’m beginning to think that Murray got hurt in Cincy.  His straight sets win in the first two rounds was a bit of smoke and mirrors and that he reaggravated the injury against Wawrinka.  Murray looked like he’d lose to Gulbis in Cincy and finally bowed out to Fish.  He looked exhausted (oddly) and weary, and so while many people (including me) ignored this, it didn’t bode well for Murray.

This has opened up that entire section and means that one player out of (Sam Querrey, Stan Wawrinka, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Robredo) has a chance to go far.  Youzhny is the highest ranked player of the bunch, but Querrey is hitting pretty well, and he might have a breakout US Open.  Certainly, without Andy Murray, his chance of moving to the semifinals are pretty good.  This isn’t to say Wawrinka and Youzhny, both similar players, might not do well too.  However, Querrey has faced Almagro, and he plays much like these guys too (if a bit more erratic).

Nadal’s path to the semifinals appears easier.  True, the Spaniards all play well, but Nadal has to feel ultra confident when he plays a fellow Spaniard.  None of them really scare him.  It’s very much like Rod Laver playing his fellow Aussies back in the 1960s.  He felt good against all of them.

So, of the fourth round matches, I think Nadal, Federer, Youzhny, and Soderling should be fairly safe bets to win their matches.  I lean to Djokovic over Fish.  I believe Querrey-Wawrinka, Monfils-Gasquet, Ferrer-Verdasco are toss-up matches, although I slightly favor Querrey, Gasquet, and Verdasco in those matches.