del Potro loses to Rochus

Don’t feel bad, Juan Martin.  Djokovic feels your pain too.  Juan Martin del Potro’s comeback was halted in a close loss to Olivier Rochus, 7-6(7), 6-4.  Perhaps the surprise was that the match was actually pretty close given how many months del Potro has been off tour.

del Potro fired 16 aces in his loss.  He also had to save numerous break points and didn’t do well on second serves.  However, his first serve was doing pretty well.  One imagines del Potro should be getting close to normal in the next few weeks.  Endurance will be another key for the big man.

One Night in Bangkok

Juan Martin del Potro has been out of the game a long time.

A very long time.

None of the top pros in the game has ever had such a lengthy break from the game.  del Potro basically played the Australian Open, and that was it.  He hasn’t been back since.  He had wrist surgery around March and then didn’t start practicing until about August.

There was hope that del Potro would return to defend his US Open title, but he, instead, decided to play in Bangkok.  Bangkok starts the Asian swing.  Many fans start ignoring the tennis season after the US Open, but the pros keep playing.  Last year, Sam Querrey was looking to build on a successful summer when a freak accident in Bangkok nearly derailed his career.  Sitting on a glass table to avoid a sweaty chair that he sat on, Querrey fell through and cut his arm, nearly severing a nerve that may have instant retirement.

Having seen Nadal injured over the years and come back, one knows that it’s tough to take 2-3 months off and come back, often a touch rusty, and then usually getting to form in a few weeks.  Nikolay Davydenko has come back from injury several times, but he often takes more time getting his form back.  Indeed, arguably, Davydenko is still struggling with his game, which is too bad, because he had hit a peak in his playing starting after the US Open and working his way to this year’s Australian Open.

More than likely, del Potro won’t be able to get back to form very quickly.  He is slated to meet Nadal in the quarterfinals should both make it that far, but it’s hard to believe del Potro is ready to meet Nadal, and even ready to make it to the quarterfinals.

In any case, it’s good to see del Potro back after almost a year, and it’ll be nicer yet, to see him return to the form that made him a threat to be a top 3 player.

Changing the Tour

Every year, as we head to the end of the calendar year, American sports pundits lament at the lack of a playoff system for Division 1 football (American football).  In the US, many large universities have football teams with somewhere between 80 and 100 players (though most don’t play and serve in backup roles).  With so many universities spread out over so much area, and with the sport as violent as it is (which limits how often a team can play to once a week), it’s very difficult to determine the “best team”.

Americans love their championships.  Some sports, like international cricket, seem to be about two countries that decide to meet and play a game or two, and the only real meaningful competition is the World Cup of cricket.  In the US, most sports have a regular season where teams try to have a superior win-loss record and qualify for a championship in the so-called post season.  Say there are 32 teams.  A sport, like professional American football, has 12 of the teams make the playoffs in the post-season.  Baseball, I believe, has 8 teams.

At the end of the playoffs, usually a form of single elimination play, the “best” team is given a trophy be it the Superbowl, the NBA finals, the Stanley Cup, or the World Series.

However, this is not how it’s done in college football.  Throughout the year, computers, sports writers, and coaches all come up with ways to rank the football teams.  Ultimately, some arcane formula is used to determine number 1 and number 2, and those 2 teams play off, invariably leaving out a potentially worthy team from winning a national championship.

Every year, sports writers can write their trusty articles, complaining, once again, that the BCS (which is used to rank college football teams) is a sham, and hoping for some oddity to occur (3 undefeated teams of a certain caliber) to make a mockery, and force college presidents to move to a playoff system.  College presidents (for some reason, they are involved in matters athletic as well) refuse.  The bowl system allows for 30 some-odd bowls of which 5 of them are the most prestigious.  In the college presidents’ eyes, 30 winners is better than 1.  30 teams get to feel good about themselves.

But the craving to decide the very best seems ingrained in American sports, so this idea that 60 teams play in 30 bowls and create 30 winners is hardly satisfying.  They’d rather jettison all but the 8 best teams, or 16 in a pinch.  The notion is simple.  Only the best matter.  Ignore the fact that many teams are often thrilled to salvage a season even in the tiniest of bowls with the slimmest of viewers.

But sports pundits must have something to write about.  It is their livelihood, so they trot this story out year after year, knowing that writing that extra article is what keeps them paid in the life they enjoy.

And so it happens with tennis too.

Tennis writers, much like the fans, like to focus on the best.  They’d like to tell 900 of the active pro players to go home, because we don’t watch you.  Never mind that these players, among the best in the world. sacrifice any chance at fame or wealth by toiling as a low-ranked player.  Never mind that these players enjoy what they do for a living.  Tennis writers, although they know better, have the same kind of blinders the average fans have.  It’s only about the top 10 players to them.

And so, they complain about the tennis calendar.  You can tell American sports writers of tennis.  Oh sure, they “love” tennis, but they grew up watching sports that were on 6 months of the year.  By the time the US Open rolls around to crowning its champ, they’re itching to watch college or pro football.  And TV coverage heads that direction.  This, despite the fact that the ATP tour continues to play tournaments until the end of November, nearly 3 months (or about a quarter of the season) after the US Open ends.

Sure, it’s nice to have 4 big tournaments a year, but these so-called tennis fans are so American centric that they want a year-end championship to determine the best.  This is so part-and-parcel of team sports in the US that nothing will convince sports writers that it should be any other way.

A writer wrote, a few months ago, about the desire to spread out the four majors more evenly, and have a season leading up to each major.  Thus, 2-3 months before the Aussie Open, 2-3 months before the French Open, 2-3 months before Wimbledon, and 2-3 months before the US Open, not realizing that tennis is primarily an outdoor sport and that each country has strong reasons to hold the major when they do.

The Australians choose late January so the middle weekend falls on  Australia Day (admittedly, only a recently holiday), a 3-day weekend that allows more fans to watch.  The French can’t go too much earlier otherwise it will be much chillier.  The US Open has its middle Sunday on Labor Day.  They could go later, and perhaps play in much cooler temperatures.

The latest complaint has been about Davis Cup.

Davis Cup is structured in an unusual way.  The complaints lie in the size of the world and the crowded tennis calendar.  If Davis Cup was expanded to 64 team, and that’s all there was all year, maybe people would love it more.  But the fact of the matter is the world is huge, and as such, the logistics of planning every round of the Davis Cup is challenging, so teams are given some time to prepare.

In the main draw of Davis Cup, there are 16 teams.  The first round is played the week after the Australian Open, the second, the week after Wimbledon, the semis are played the week after the US Open, and the finals played the week after the ATP World Tour Finals.

By its very placement, the top pros have little incentive to play.  Federer routinely skips Davis Cup.  Nadal realizes Spain has such a strong team that they have a chance to do well even without him.  Andy Murray knows, without a strong number 2, or at least a very good doubles team, he’s expending a lot of effort often with little payoff.  There are exceptions, of course.  Players like Novak Djokovic or David Nalbandian or Robin Soderlng play because they believe in Davis Cup and the pride behind it.

And there lies the rub.  The average American fan cares only about the best, so if the best won’t play, then why watch?  At least, that’s how the theory goes.

And the best don’t generally play because the best are busy winning Slams, the most important part of tennis.  And if they go deep in a Slam or win it, they are vulnerable to defeats in Davis Cup.  Indeed, much of the appeal of Davis Cup is the David vs. Goliath aspects.  Think of the recent win of India over Brazil in India.  The Indians picked a hot and humid location to play.  Their two best players have 3 digits by their rankings.  Brazil has at least 2 good players in the top 100.

India’s 2 best players lost both the opening day matches, but pushed both opponents to 5 long sets.  India still has a good doubles team despite the fact they can’t stand one another, and they won a point.  Bellucci had to retire against Devvarman, and Bopanna used serve-and-volley to win his match.  The Indian crowds were cheering wildly.

Now imagine hosting this in some neutral location.  Only the richest Indians could afford to travel, and the cheering would not be nearly as passionate.  This is one reason the World Cup works.  Since it’s held so infrequently, fans will save to travel, but the fact of the matter is, most fans can’t really afford to go, and so it depends on a rabid local population that loves to watch great international soccer, regardless of the team.  Would fans come out in droves to watch a tennis event like that?  And the World Cup lasts a month, building up to a crescendo, capturing the world’s imagination.

Would there even be a month in the calendar you could do this in tennis?  The best time would be maybe a month after the US Open.

The nice part of playing in a home country is the partisan crowds and the choice of surfaces and even the weather conditions.  Colombia played the US in altitude.  On paper, they didn’t have a team that could match up well against the US.  They had the match on clay.  They played in altitude.  They tried to wring every advantage they could to pull an upset off.  And they nearly had two points which would have forced a deciding fifth match.  This upset almost came to be because the home country got to pick things to its advantage.

Davis Cup has generally been dominated by two countries: the US and Australia.  In recent years, that has changed as more countries produce better players.  Upsets occur because the best players aren’t in the best shape to play, so they skip, and small countries get a chance to win.  It’s very much like those small bowls played in college football.  Many of those teams will never contend for a national title.  A bowl win, no matter how insignificant, is important to them.

There are Americans who watched a relegation match with Columbia and were scared that the US might not make it.  They watched the heroics of Mardy Fish to win a key match and secure the tie.  In a different scenario, this might be far less interesting.  Imagine Columbia and the US playing in Australia.  Would there be enough fans to watch?  Would you get cowbells?

And what about the facilities?  Would you eliminate all those tiny countries that don’t have a chance (you could run it like World Cup where those that qualify play more locally).  World Cup crowns a champ every 4 years, but Davis Cup crowns a champ every year.  Even Americans would lament the Superbowl once in 4 years.   What would happen in between?

So, American writers get to complain about the Davis Cup format.  Davis Cup might not gain the interest it does, but it is one of the better underdog team tournaments out there.  We may seek the best in competition, but Davis Cup lets the small countries compete and lets them have a chance to go deep.

It’s not clear that changing the format would make tennis that much more popular, because tennis already has the Slams.  Soccer doesn’t have much competing against it, so the World Cup is it.

In any case, as much as writers complain, their thoughts are rarely heard because unlike sports like college football with its plethora of writers, who show up on TV to complain, tennis writers barely register a blip.  Complain all you like tennis sportswriters, because you’re more insignificant than the Davis Cup you complain about.

Mardy Fish pulls the triple, clinches the Davis Cup tie

The US was eliminated a while ago with the team of Djokovic and Troicki beating Querrey and Isner.  They had to go into qualifying to get back in the main draw.  Given Mardy Fish’s recent success, it was no surprise that he was picked to represent the US.  Andy Roddick had decided that, to avoid injuries, he would no longer play Davis Cup.  James Blake, who was also a Davis Cup stalwart, has found his ranking spiraling downward, and so hasn’t been asked to play.

Although the US was up 2-1 and therefore had a match to “lose”, Fish was the US’s best chance to win the tie.  He would have to beat Santiago Giraldo who beat Querrey in straight sets.  Giraldo took the first set, but Fish was able to take the next two sets, but Giraldo claimed the fourth.  They held serve until 5-all when Mardy Fish lost serve and Giraldo would serve for the set.

But Fish played aggressively and broke Giraldo to 6-all.  He then held to 7-6, and broke a second time to win the match, 8-6, in a match that went around 4 and a half hours.

The US clinched the tie with that point, and Fish pulled off the triple, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished by an American since Pete Sampras beat Kafelnikov and Chesnokov in 1995 at Moscow on clay, and won the doubles with Todd Martin.  Fish needed two five setters to win his singles and a four-setter to win doubles.

The match was tough for the US for several reasons.  First, they played on clay.  None of the US players play their best on clay.  Most play best on hard courts.  The second reason is altitude.  Bogota is around 8000 feet above sea level making it one of the highest altitudes where tennis is played.  This seemed to disrupt Sam Querrey.  However, Fish managed to keep his resolve and play the big points when he needed to.

They may let Ryan Harrison play the fifth match because he was yanked at the last moment in doubles in favor of Mardy Fish.

Lleyton Hewitt injured his hand in Davis Cup and may miss several weeks of play.  Peter Luczak will have to fill in.

Serbia also pulled a comeback with Janko Tipsarevic beating Radek Stepanek in straight sets.  This means France will head to Serbia to try to claim their 10th Davis Cup title while Serbia will attempt to win their first.  Again, a key for France is the doubles.  It appears as if they will play this match on indoor hard courts, although clay might be a better choice for the Serbs (given Djokovic can play either surface).

France sweeps Argentina 5-0 in Davis Cup semis

The third day of a Davis Cup tie that’s already been decided is often a bland affair.  Teams will substitute their weaker players.  The enthusiasm is a bit lacking.  In the past, such matches were often skipped at the behest of either the losing or winning team or by a gentleman’s agreement.  However, fans that may have taken the 3 days off to enjoy the Davis Cup atmosphere may feel ripped off if a match is called off, so, at the very least, some player will play, although best of 3 sets is usually the order of the day.

The French had already clinched when Monfils beat Nalbandian on Day 1 and Llodra beat Juan Monaco, and then on Day 2, Llodra teamed up with veteran, Arnaud Clement, and won over Schwank and Zeballos, who reached the semifinals of the US Open only last week.  The two are reasonably good singles player, and were asked to play singles on Day 3.

On Day 3, Gilles Simon took on Eduardo Schwank and needed 3 sets to win.  Zeballos played veteran Arnaud Clement.  Zeballos took a 5-3 lead before his game went away.  Clement won 9 games in a row, taking a 5-0 lead in the second set.  During the changeover, the French were cheering and the Argentines were cheering, knowing their man was way out of it, hoping he’d win one game.  The exuberant Michael Llodra even went over to the Argentine side, jumping up and down with the Argentines, getting a smile out of his doubles partner.  Zeballos asked the chair umpire to say something to the crowd and Zeballos uttered “Oles”.  A good time was had by all.

Only in Davis Cup will you have a 5 minute break where everyone is having a grand old time.  Zeballos, for his part, won his serve and was in mock exultation.  His coach seemed none too pleased, but then, it was a meaningless match.  Clement would win his serve at love and complete the 5-0 sweep.

The French then used the post-victory celebration to show highlights of the 1991 match against the US, with Yannick Noah as captain, Guy Forget and Henri Leconte on hand.  Henri Leconte showed up on Day 3.  When Forget saw himself cheering, then Yannick Noah jumping for joy and leading something of a French conga line, you could see Forget’s eyes mist, knowing that they had accomplished almost 20 years ago.  Leconte seemed a bit less nostalgic looking at his younger, thinner self.

As France makes the final for the first time in 8 years, even a meaningless Day 3 had some meaning.  The Argentines came in hoping for a Nalbandian miracle, the one that carried them past Russia.  They were hoping because a healthy del Potro would have made for a formidable team.

In the one big surprise of the Davis Cup weekend was India beating Brazil.  Brazil should be the better team on paper.  Thomas Belluci is a top 50 player.  Ricardo Mello is 75 in the world.  However, India was playing in humid Chennai.  Belluci and Mello both needed 5 long sets to win their matches.  India staved off defeat by playing veteran doubles team Bhupathi and Paes who beat the team of Melo and Soares.  Bhupathi and Paes have long since split up.  Paes primarily plays with Dlouhy.  However, for Davis Cup and Olympics, the two play together, albeit grudgingly.

Devvarman and Bopanna, who mostly plays doubles, were called to play singles.  Devvarman had some luck.  Down 4-0 in the second, Bellucci retired.  Bopanna also did his part and beat Mello in straight sets.  This is an incredible win for India who hasn’t had a top singles player in quite some time.

Novak Djokovic was expected to play for Serbia.  With him, the chances of winning were reasonably good.  Without him, the chances were not so good.  Serbia got a bit lucky.  Although Victor Troicki lost to tricky Radek Stepanek, Tipsarevic pulled off the upset over Tomas Berdych.  Djokovic played doubles, but they were unable to make an impression on Stepanek and Berdych.  Djokovic felt he had to play singles.

Although Djokovic lost the first set, he came back to win the next 3 sets.  Berdych, who had had a great two months, seems to have come back to earth with an early loss in the US Open.  It’s now up to Tipsarevic to handle Stepanek.  Stepanek plays so unusually, flat and net-rushing, that many players really have a tough time handling him.

In an odd result, Kazakhstan beat Switzerland, 5-0.  The Kazakhs don’t really have any players to call their own, but they have money, and they’ve convinced several players to play for them (mostly Russians).  Apparently, despite having Wawrinka, the Swiss were unable to muster a win.  The Swiss played Chiudinelli, who is Swiss number 3, was unable to make a dent.

Sweden is looking to get back into the main draw as well and had to rely on Soderling to win both his matches as Vinciguerra is too low-ranked to be considered a viable threat to win a match.  Fortunately, Sweden has a good doubles team in Aspelin and Lindstedt, who still needed 5 sets to beat the Italian team of Bolelli and Starace.  The Italians don’t have any player as good as Soderling, but they have many players that are better than Sweden’s number 2.  Alas, sometimes all you need is one guy.

There’s still one more match to go to see who will play France in the finals.  Serbia has a better number 1 man in Novak Djokovic, but a weaker number 2 man.  On the other hand, Stepanek and Berdych give the Czechs a decent 1-2 shot and a decent doubles team to boot.  France will likely be favored over either team, although France would host the Czechs if they win, but go to Serbia, if they win.

The World of Dustin Brown

Dustin Brown made a splash this year.  At least, for a guy who primarily played Challengers in Jamaica and Germany and has been ranked 400 or worse for at least 5 years of his carrer.

He won a round in Queen’s Club, then reached the quarters of Newport.  With his flowing dreadlocks, he is reminiscent of Yannick Noah during his peak years.  Brown lists himself as a man from Jamaica, but the fact is, he’s half-German, spent much of his early years in Germany, and then around the age of 10, he moved to Jamaica.  Brown doesn’t speak with the stereotypical Jamaican accent sounding a little American, a little British.

In a way, Brown is much like James Blake who is the son of an English woman and an African-American man, or Yannick Noah, the son of a Cameroon soccer player and a French woman.  Such is the international nature of tennis.

Ranked 118 in the world, aged 25, and towering at 6’5″, Brown might never reach the vaunted heights of the sport, but who knows.  Players like Blake or Soderling have matured a bit later in life.  And even if he doesn’t reach the heights of the sport, he’ll at least say that he had a pretty good life.  Fans often have disdain for players that never reach the top 50, that toil on the tour for years.  They wonder “why play if you can never be the best”, never realizing their lives are so far from being the best that the 100th or even 500th ranked man in the world is far in excess of where they will ever be in their lives.

The world of tennis is cruel.  You can only be truly wealthy if you are a top singles or doubles player.  Most jobs let you be the 100,000th best in the world and still make a good living, the kind that lets you feed, clothe, and house yourself.  But even players like Dustin Brown can say they saw the world and played a sport they loved.

Davis Cup Semis (Day 2): France makes the finals

In 1991, France met the US in the Davis Cup finals.  Yannick Noah, the 1983 French Open champion, was the Davis Cup captain.  Although he could have chosen to play, he opted to name Guy Forget and Henri Leconte to the team.  Leconte was a bit of a wildcard.  Hugely talented, Leconte could play up and down.  Forget was a bit more timid, but he was having one of his best years ever, and was in the top 10.

Although there is history at Roland Garros, a stadium that was not built for the French Open, but was built for Davis Cup, the French have traditionally not produced superlative clay court players.  To be fair, they knew how to play on the surface, but most of the players exude Gaellic flair and that often comes out more on faster surfaces.  Rather than host the Davis Cup on an indoor clay court, they opted for indoor carpet.

Andre Agassi would open up the tie with a four set victory over Guy Forget.  Henri Leconte would beat Sampras in straight sets.  In 1991, Sampras was not quite the player he would become.  Despite winning the US Open in 1990, Sampras had an off-year (for him) in 1991.  It probably didn’t hurt that both Forget and Leconte were lefties.

Leconte and Forget would team together and produce one of the few losses by Flach and Seguso, at the time, the leading American doubles team.  This left France with a 2-1 lead.

Forget would then be asked to beat Pete Sampras.  Forget took the first set in a tiebreak, while Sampras took the second set.  Noah exhorted his man to play more aggressive, not be too passive.  Forget didn’t quite do this, but he did secure the victory winning the next two sets.  In the stunning victory, the match between Agassi and Leconte was not played.

The US would not be without a victory for long.  In 1992, the US would beat Switzerland behind the team of Agassi and Courier.  McEnroe would have one last hurrah playing with Pete Sampras to win a 5-set match and come from 2 sets to none down.  Jakob Hlasek and Marc Rosset would show that, yes, there was such a thing as Swiss tennis, and it did precede Roger Federer.

The US would win again in 1995, in Moscow, on clay, with Sampras winning all 3 points, beating Chesnokov in 5 sets, winning the doubles with Todd Martin, then beating Kafelnikov in straight sets.

The following year, the French would take the Davis Cup with a team of Cedric Pioline and Arnaud Boetsch.  They would beat the Swedes in Sweden with Edberg and Thomas Enqvist playing singles.  Edberg would lose to Pioline.  Enqvist would beat Boetsch.  Guy Forget would have his one last hurrah playing doubles with Guillame Raoux and they would beat the Swedish team of Bjorkman and Kulti (not clear why Edberg didn’t play doubles too).  Enqvist would beat Pioline in 5 sets, leaving the match of Arnaud Boetsch against…Nicklas Kulti.  Looks like Edberg got hurt, and the Swedes had to go to their backup plan.  Kulti pushed Boetsch to a long fifth set, but ultimately lost.

The US would reach the finals in 1997 once again, but be blanked by Sweden.  Sampras retired in his match.  Chang lost both matches and Martin/Stark lost in doubles.

In 2001, France would win with an improbable team of Nicolas Escude and Sebastien Grosjean, good players yes, but great?  Not as much.  Australia would field Patrick Rafter and Lleyton Hewitt.  The two had four Slams between them, and they played on grass in Australia, and yet Escude won the first match over Hewitt in 5 sets.  Grosjean lost to Rafter.  Pioline and Santoro beat Rafter/Hewitt.  It may say something that Australia, once noted for a plethora of doubles talent, lacked a go to doubles team.  Australia would sub in hard-serving Wayne Arthurs, but Escude would win the fifth match and France would have another victory.  It goes to show that Davis Cup is unlike anything else.

In 2004, the US would lose to Spain which was playing Moya and Nadal, the two players from Majorca.  The US would win the doubles point, and the meaningless fifth match when Fish beat Tommy Robredo.

In 2007, the US would beat Russia in the US, with Roddick and Blake beating Tursunov and Youzhny in singles respectively, the Bryan brothers taking the doubles, and Andreev winning the sole point (over Bob Bryan).

Now we’re in 2010.  The French captain is Guy Forget, who served back in 1991 in singles and later in doubles.  They’ve been mostly playing in France the last two rounds.  In the previous round, Monfils beat Ferrer in 5 sets, then Llodra toppled Verdasco in 4 sets and the French team of Llodra and Benneteau took the doubles, eliminating the two time defending champs (Nadal was injured and declined to play).

Against Argentina, it was again, up to Nalbandian to try to win the Davis Cup, but he could not get past the athletic Gael Monfils who won in four sets.  Michael Llodra had beaten Juan Monaco earlier in four sets.  Monaco was unable to play the previous tie, but as it was, Argentina still made it to the semis.  Llodra then paired with French veteran, Arnaud Clement, and the duo beat Schwank and Zeballos in straight sets.  This was not necessarily a foregone conclusion.  Schwank and Zeballos just made it to the semis of the US Open doubles losing to Bopanna and Qureshi.

France is again heading to the finals, though their first time in eight years.

Currently, Serbia is in a bind.  Djokovic fell ill the first day and so it was up to Tipsarevic and Troicki to play singles.  Troicki lost to Stepanek in four sets.  Tipsarevic, however, won over Berdych.  Djokovic did his best Willis Reed (an injured basketball player that came out in the decisive 7th game of the NBA finals) and played doubles with Zimonjic, but Djokovic didn’t fare much better than he had with Nadal.

The big question is whether Djokovic should play, and then for whom?  If he were healthy, he would have a good chance of beating either Stepanek or Berdych.  Serbia has to win both points to get to the finals, otherwise the Czechs will get to the finals for a second year in a row.

Meanwhile, the US is in the World Group playoff to stay in the main draw of the Davis Cup (only 16 countries) against Colombia in Colombia.  They are playing in altitude on clay.

Mardy Fish won his match in five sets over Alejandro Falla, the man that nearly beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon.  Querrey succumbed to Giraldo in straight sets, with Querrey having difficulty dealing with the altitude.

The Bryan brothers did not join the Davis Cup team in Colombia.  Instead, captain Patrick McEnroe went with up-and-comer Ryan Harrison and John Isner.  However, at the last minute, he opted to play veteran, Mardy Fish, instead of Harrison.  The duo took the doubles in four sets, and the US is up 2-1.

One big question is whether to let Querrey continue to play.  Querrey has had some success on clay.  He reached the finals of Houston and won Belgrade, but the field in both tournaments were relatively weak.  Had Djokovic made the finals, then it would have been a different story, but he was ailing, so he basically lost without much effort.

Isner is not nearly as good on clay, but he does have a huge serve.  Querrey is the better groundstroker.  The decision will be interesting.

Post US Open thoughts

Every time a Slam rolls around, it’s the equivalent of an exam for professional tennis players.  The players prep for this exam by playing tournaments leading up to the Slam, and they hope to do their best.  Unlike exams given in a classroom setting, players are prone to injuries.  Tennis is a very physical game, and one can enter a Slam having prepared as best as possible, but some niggling injury does one in.  And, unlike a student who has aced his midterms and is ready for the final exam, the players that do best heading into a Slam don’t always do well in the Slam.

The financial analysts always make a caveat in their commercials.  They want you to believe that only they know how best to invest your money, how you’ll be wealthy after they manage it.  Then, they tack on the obligatory “Past performance is no indicator of future success”.  They say this to give themselves an out.  But, in tennis, if we do not use past success, how do we predict future performance.

Let’s take a quick look back at Wimbledon.  Roger Federer had lost to Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals.  And in the French, he had lost to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals.  Many experts were writing Roger off, except those that felt that Roger still had something left in his game, having once been burned when they wrote him off the last time.  Roger was starting to lose to players that he had gaudy records against, including Robin Soderling.  He was shanking balls again.  Roger was once this elegant machine that would hit shots no one could imagine, but now looked like he was sputtering, malfunctioning, spraying balls everywhere.

Roger, for his part, claimed his back and legs were bothering him.  He needed rest.  And so, after two weeks of rest, he felt those injuries had subsided and was back to training.

Meanwhile, everyone thought Nadal was poised to take the US Open title.  Nadal had been injured during the Australian Open and took quite a bit of time off.  Then, it was Indian Wells, Miami, the entire clay court season, the French, and Wimbledon.  Everything looked good for Nadal.  He was playing dominating tennis.  Only a matter of time to win the US Open.

Then, a strange thing happened to both Roger and Rafa.  The two hard court Masters 1000, Toronto and Cincinnati, recast everything experts were saying.  Roger had slipped to number 3.  Many scratched their heads over this one.  Novak Djokovic was certainly a solid player, but his Slam results were a bit spotty.  Quarterfinal loss to Tsonga in Australia, quarterfinal loss to Melzer at the French, and finally, semifinal loss to Berdych at Wimbledon.  In each of these matches, he has favored to win, and in two of these matches, he was on the verge of winning.  The only match that he came out flat was against Berdych, and even Djokovic admitted he played Berdych too cautiously.

Djokovic’s ranking of 3 was primarily due to his performance since last year’s US Open.  People forget that a ranking is based on a year’s accomplishments.  What you did 8-12 months ago is still relevant.  Djokovic reached the semis of the US Open, won at Basel, won at Beijing, won at Paris.  The fact was, Djokovic, along with Davydenko, was one of the hottest players after the US Open.  Had Davydenko not played so well, Djokovic would have likely won Shanghai as well.  Roger Federer, meanwhile, didn’t have a particularly good post-US Open run and didn’t play a lot of tournaments.  For once, Rafa’s injuries meant he was actually healthy enough to play many of the post-US Open tournaments.  But he had lost some confidence for nearly a year–good enough to reach deep in tournaments, but not good enough to beat the other elites of the game.  This was not surprising.  It had been typical nearly every year when the hard court season rolled around.

Roger Federer is a man of habit.  He tries not to panic.  Shortly after Wimbledon, Djokovic moved to number 2 in the world.  For the first time, he chose to play Los Angeles.  Historically, Djokovic supported Umag.  Despite being Serbian, he routinely played Umag in Croatia, then maybe once of either Canada or Cincinnati.  Before 2007, his rankings were low enough that getting into the major tournaments was a challenge.  By playing LA, Djokovic could pad out his points and make it difficult for Roger to get the number 2 seed.  Roger could have played LA, and tried to gain similar points.  But he didn’t panic, didn’t ask for a last minute wildcard.  If he were number 3 seed, so be it.

But Djokovic withdrew from LA and Andy Murray, being a “nice guy”, opted to help out.  Then, Djokovic lost to Roger Federer in Toronto, then to Andy Roddick in Toronto.  Djokovic, up to that point, had looked like the “meh” player he had been all year long.  Djokovic had only won one tournament in 2010: Dubai.  His resume was looking very much like Andy Murray who won his first title of the year in Toronto.

Indeed, it was Andy Murray with his double, beating Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the same tournament, that looked like he might be a strong favorite heading into the US Open.  Murray, of the top pros, was willing, for a time, to show part of his training.  Despite his work, he seemed lethargic at Cincy, the heat seemingly having a bigger effect than expected.  He sputtered his way past Gulbis, a match Murray barely seemed to be into, and then lost to Mardy Fish, who had been having an excellent summer.

Ah, Mardy Fish.  Mardy Fish had been on the tour a long time.  He must be one likable guy.  Not only had he known Andy Roddick since he was in high school, but he was James Blake’s best man.  People just like Mardy Fish.  Although he was talented enough to reach the finals of a Masters 1000 event early in his career, Mardy didn’t really start to do well until 2007 when he made a miraculous run to the final of Indian Wells, a sustained run of brilliance few had accomplished up to then.  He beat Federer, yes, but also Davydenko, Nalbandian, and Hewitt, each who has flirted or made top 3 in the world or even 2 and 1 for many of them.  Mardy was stopped by the wunderkind of the day, one Novak Djokovic.

Mardy had been suffering from injuries when his good buddy Andy Roddick said that Fish needed to lose weight.  While injured, Mardy changed his diet, hired a dietician, stopped eating out, and lost 30 pounds.  So much was made of this that fans were sure it would be the theme of the US Open.  Certainly, Fish was being asked repeatedly about his weight loss.  Maybe Fish, out of mercy to himself, said to Djokovic “Beat me, beat me bad, so I don’t have to answer questions about my weight!”.

So, heading into the US Open, the feeling was this.  Roger was back.  Finalist in Toronto, beat Berdych after a third set comeback.  Won Cincy over Mardy Fish.  He was moving well, hitting well.  Sure, not the domination that was 2006, but better than in Paris or in London.  Andy Murray, doing good, won Toronto, lost in the quarters of Cincy to Mardy Fish, but early loss is probably good–get more rest for the US Open.

Mardy Fish.  Won in Newport and Atlanta.  Made the finals of Cincy.  Looked to make a big impact at the US Open.

Marcos Baghdatis.  Had a good run at Cincy.  Lost in the semis to Federer.  Was a finalist in DC against Nalbandian.  Marcos chose to play New Haven, the week before the US Open.  Lost to Stakhovsky, the eventual New Haven champ.

Andy Roddick, reached the semis of Cincy, reached the semis of Atlanta.  Two losses to Mardy, but seemed to be doing OK once again.

And Rafa?  Rafa made the semis of Toronto, but lost to Murray, and lost in the quarters of Cincy, to Marcos Baghdatis.  He was spraying his backhand, and chipping his returns.  He hardly looked like the dominant player that won Wimbledon or the French, but Rafa, being Rafa, hardly ever loses before the quarterfinals.  Everyone thought, well, Rafa isn’t playing well, and it’s because it’s the hard courts.  He traditionally doesn’t play well.

David Nalbandian, who had been long been considered washed out, won a Davis Cup tie for Argentina against Russia beating Davydenko and Youzhny.  Nalbandian won DC over Baghdatis.  People were looking seriously at Nalby as a guy who might reclaim his previous glory.

So what did the US Open tell us?

Marcos Baghdatis, who had had an excellent summer, succumbed to veteran Arnaud Clement, possibly due to the heat, in five sets.  Andy Roddick, who didn’t have a spectacular summer, but seemed to be on the rebound, lost in the second round to Janko Tipsarevic.  Despite losing to Roddick twice and being admonished by Roddick to f-ing win the next match, Tipsarevic was out by the next round, losing to the more athletically gifted Gael Monfils.

Nalbandian lost to Verdasco.  Verdasco had not had a great summer, but he still likes the hardcourts, and was one of many Spaniards who made it deep into the US Open.

Mardy Fish made his appointed round against Novak Djokovic.  Fish was hoping for a close match, but Djokovic made quick work of him, in straight sets in the fourth round.

Andy Murray looked sluggish against Stanislas Wawrinka, who went for big shots all match long.  Murray’s loss seemed induced by injury.  Murray played a few loose games and decided, once again, that he would not play the power style that won him Toronto.  My feeling is that Murray finds that style damaging to his body, and only reserves it for a few matches here and there.  I think if Murray were to hit power all the time, he’d find himself injured all the time too, so he finds other ways to win.  But that’s just me.  Maybe Murray is stubborn.  Maybe he believes that he should win playing soft ball.

Murray’s loss opened up the US Open.  Players like Sam Querrey thought he could make a good run, and he gave it a good shot, but Wawrinka, running around late in the fifth, trying to show that fatigue wasn’t bothering him, made several good chip n charge returns, and secured a late fifth set break.  Querrey was unable to make that critical breakthough in this fouth round match.

Roger Federer?  Of the players coming in to the US Open, Federer was favored by far.  He regained his number 2 rank, and he made it to the semifinals, not dropping a set.  Even Robin Soderling, the player that many expected would give Roger a tough time, lost in straight sets.  Federer would play Djokovic for the fourth time in a row.  Despite patchy play, Federer would reach match points against Djokovic when Djoker decided to go for broke and did so for several games.  He was down 15-40, played an aggressive rally that ended in a swing forehand volley to save one match point, then a hard middle of the court to Roger’s deuce side to save another.  He hit a great passing shot for another point.

Then, he broke Roger Federer, and did well enough to hold his own serve to upset the Swiss maestro.  Although Federer had yet to drop a set, he played two sets with bad first serve percentages and a bit too many errors, and still, Roger was almost in the finals.

Rafa, for his part, righted the ship.  It seems, each time that Rafa is on his own, being coached by Roig, the backup to Uncle Toni, his game goes down.  And Uncle Toni comes by, the week before the US Open, to help get Rafa’s game back in shape.  In Toronto and Cincy, Rafa played error prone tennis.  Uncle Toni wanted Rafa to dial back the aggression, get used to the steady play, and take his chances at more opportune moments.  This seemed to be just what the doctor ordered.  Once Rafa got his consistency back, he got his confidence back, and then he got his power back.

To be fair, Rafa greatly benefited from winning his matches easily and facing opponent after opponent who had played five setters or lacked enough hits.  Third round, Rafa plays Gilles Simon.  Not only has Simon recently had a child from his girlfriend, but he needed five sets to get past Philipp Kohlschreiber.  Down two sets, Simon gave up tamely.  In the fourth round, Rafa played Lopez.  Lopez had a retirement in the previous round and a five setter the round before.  And, more or less, Rafa owns Lopez.  Despite a win at Queen’s, Rafa knows he can beat Lopez almost always.

Quarterfinals.  Rafa beats Verdasco.  Forget that Rafa has never lost to Verdasco.  Verdasco also played a five setter, coming from two sets to none down, to beat David Ferrer.  Verdasco is fit, but this can’t be good for him.

Semifinals.  Rafa beats Youzhny.  Youzhny needed five sets to beat Wawrinka and was down two sets to one.  Youzhny didn’t take early success in his career to vault himself to the top 10.  Rafa handles him with ease.

Finally, Rafa against Djokovic.  Djokovic needed five sets to beat Roger, but got a day of rest due to the rain.  Rafa wins in four sets.

So now what?  Rafa won the career Slam, won 3 of 4 Slams, a feat, by the way, that Roger should have had.  Had Roger played smartly against del Potro in the US Open final last year, he would have accomplished the same feat for the fourth time!

People will ask whether Roger Federer is in decline.  Federer again claimed (though far less strenuously) that he was not in the best of shape in the US Open, and he was very close to beating Djokovic, though one doubts he could have beaten Nadal in the finals.

Djokovic, for his part, did a lot to rehabilitate his image.  Here was a guy who was synonymous with quitter.  Some joked that he was going for the Grand Slam of retirements, to retire in each of the four Slams (apparently, he’s done it in 3 Slams so far).  Yet, his effort to hold serve against Federer, then to break, and then all the break points he saved by playing big shots.  All that helped endear him to New Yorkers despite Rafa’s unrelenting hitting.

Rafa, of course, is back to being great once again, and now, many think he’ll play a pared down schedule and give himself enough rest to contend for titles.

What about the rest?  Andy Murray’s reputation probably suffered the biggest hit.  He had parted ways with his coach,  Miles Maclagan.  This seemingly freed him to play the tennis he wanted to play.  Lots of drop shots.  He reached a peak in Toronto and played solid tennis to beat a resurgent Nalbandian, and Rafa and Roger in the same tournament.  And yet, despite this amazing feat, he faded in Cincy and faded in the US Open.  The questions became more serious.  Will you ever win a Slam, Andy Murray?  And, on the verge of tears, Murray said he’d continue to fight.

Murray is a stubborn man, to be sure.  Everyone tells him to play a style he hates to play.  Everyone says, look how well it served you in Toronto.  Just play that way all the time.  Dominate your opponent.  Stop waiting for them to make the errors.  And yet, time and again, Murray says no.  At one point, his change of pace was brilliant.  Players would self-destruct as they couldn’t deal with what seemed like a genius way to play.  But soon, they prepared for his style and found ways to beat it.

Davydenko?  Here’s a guy that seems to need his game in perfect alignment to run well.  Davydenko often plays before he’s fully ready.  He’s a bit like Nadal in that his game is built on precision and power, and yet Nadal almost always recovers quicker.  Davydenko has to be kicking himself, wondering how he managed to break his wrist.  Can he even come close to the way he played a year ago.

Andy Roddick?  Once you see how Djokovic plays, you see why Roddick never had a chance to move really high in the rankings.  Roddick has learned to play a style that suits his game.  Roddick could never hit the down-the-line winners that Djokovic could.  He just can’t do it.  He doesn’t play the miracle shots that Federer or Rafa can.  Roddick is a big serve and a steady play, and it works on most players, but not the very best.

Although Roddick is often compared to Murray, despite differing styles, Murray has a ton of variety, but resorts to playing softball, despite some ability to play hardball (though not as well as Roger, Rafa, or Novak).  Roddick, on the other hand, lacks the variety, but even more, he lacks the consistent hard pace of a player like Djokovic.  Roddick can’t go down the line again and again.  He’s make too many errors.

Robin Soderling?  You know, he’s flirting with number 4 in the world.  He’s got the kind of game that gives nearly everyone trouble, except the very best.  He’s spent all his effort hitting hard, that he lacks much subtlety.  Nadal has worked a lot on his slice backhand and a ton on his volley and now he looks pretty good as a volleyer.  Soderling lacks this versatility.  He’s like del Potro except Delpo’s forehand is even bigger and perhaps his serve is too.

And Delpo?  Here’s a fierce competitor.  Can he come back?  Nadal showed he can come back.  Davydenko still looks shaky, by comparison.  del Potro has the kind of power game to make life tough for Nadal.

So we leave the US Open seeing how everyone fared.  Nadal and Djokovic looked good.  Federer was looking for answers and probably came out about even.  Murray didn’t look so good.  Berdych and Davydenko didn’t do so good.  Soderling did as well expected, as did Mardy Fish.  The Spaniards had a good US Open, even outside of Rafa.

And although typical American sports fans turn their attention once again to American football, be it college or pros, the tennis season still rolls along.  Davis Cup at the end of the week, then a swing through Asia, then to Europe, and then to London for the year-end championship.  True tennis fans know the season still has another quarter left to go.

USO Day 15: Rafa captures the career Slam

It was the third final played on a Monday in a row.  In 2008, rain on a Saturday pushed the Nadal-Murray semis to a Sunday which pushed the finals to a Monday.  In 2009, Nadal-Gonzalez was rained out on a Thursday, but Friday was washed out so despite a 34 minute conclusion, Nadal was not asked to play a semifinal.  The semifinals were pushed to Sunday and the finals to Monday.

And then, this year, rain postponed the final on Sunday to Monday, and again, Nadal was involved or partly involved.

The US Open was the last title that Nadal was seeking.  He had won Australia once, Wimbledon twice, and the French five times.  The US Open?  He hadn’t reached the final.  Twice he reached the semifinals, but twice he was denied, once by Murray and once by del Potro.

But today, Nadal played relentless tennis.

Nadal had dropped serve twice all tournament long.  He had not dropped a set.  Djokovic would prove a level better than his previous opponents.  He would break Rafa three times.  One more than his previous six opponents played together.

Nadal had taken the first set with Djokovic having broken once and Nadal twice.  It was 4-all, 30-all in the second set when the rains came.  The match was delayed 2 hours before the players returned.  Djokovic had to work to hold this game and get to 5-4.  Nadal would get to 5-all, then Djokovic to 6-5 before Djokovic finally managed to break and win his only set.

Nadal had plenty of looks at breaking Djokovic, and it was all Djokovic could do to hold serve again and again.  Nadal only won 6 of 26 break points, but this was because he gave himself so many opportunities and Djokovic had to work hard just to keep in the match.  Djokovic must have felt what Soderling felt.  As hard as you hit, as many winners as you hit, Nadal makes you hit more.  It’s so hard to hit that well and not make errors, and Nadal is just so stingy when it comes to errors.  He makes you hit lots of balls and chases down a lot of balls.

In the third set, in particular, Nadal kept threatening a second break of Djokovic’s serve, and yet, Djokovic had a tough time getting a break point on Rafa’s serve.

At this point, he’s 3 Slams ahead of Roger at the same age.  He’s won a small Slam (3 Slams in one year) and the first time a small Slam has been won on three different surfaces ever.  Rod Laver’s Grand Slam was won on clay and grass.  Hard courts in Slams didn’t come about until the US Open first went to hardcourts in 1978.

By the time, Rafa got the second break, Novak didn’t have enough to turn the tide.  He kept trying to stay in the match, but Rafa was, as usual, relentless.  He’s the anti-Sampras who would give up on return games knowing full well his opponent couldn’t break.  Rafa continues to try to break even as he’s up a break or two.

Novak, for his part, played pretty well.  He didn’t start off well, and did better after the rain delay, but he seemed in it enough.  Nadal tried to make Djokovic work hard, but for the most part, Djokovic kept in the rallies.  Although the entire Djokovic clan wore shirts with Nole’s face on it (dad, mom, and brother), the gaudy shirts didn’t prove lucky enough.

The crowd seemed to sympathize with Djokovic’s effort, but in the end, Nadal was too much.

After this week, Roger Federer will once again slip to number 3 while Djokovic will go back to number 2.

Djokovic is expected to play Davis Cup at the end of the week against the Czech Republic.  Nadal is likely to rest until the ATP 500s in China or Japan.

Two weeks ago, people said Federer looked in great form, and Nadal looked shaky.  But with Uncle Toni around to right the ship, Nadal showed his ability to play big at the biggest moments, and Federer will have to do more soul-searching.

USO Day 14: Rain postpones men’s final–Sock wins boy’s final

It took Novak Djokovic five sets and two saved match points to beat Roger Federer.  By that point, Rafael Nadal had a nice break having won his match over Mikhail Youzhny in straight sets.  The US Open is the only Slam that plays semifinals and finals on back-to-back days, ostensibly for TV, realizing far fewer fans will watch a semifinal on a Friday than on a Saturday.  The other Slams try to take the players health into consideration.  One only wonders what might have happened if Rafael Nadal had played Fernando Verdasco in a marathon 5-setter on a Saturday, only to play Federer the next day.  Perhaps Nadal would still have shown inhuman endurance and won, but the likelihood is even the incomparable Nadal would have struggled to come back in a day.

The weather during the US Open had been topsy turvy.  The first week of the US Open was played in heat.  That heat had disappeared the week before.  This summer had been one of the hottest summers ever, but there was a thought the US Open might barely avoid that heat. The heat took its toll.  Ivan Ljubicic, who said he’s historically handled the heat worse than other players, lost to upstart Ryan Harrison.  Novak Djokovic needed five sets to get out of the first round, as did Robin Soderling.  Djokovic was thrilled that tournament organizers put his second and third rounds during the evening matches.  By the time Djokovic had to play in the day again, the temperature cooled down again, and Djokovic could play his tennis.

Late in the first week, Hurricane Earl was making it up the east coast.  It hit North Carolina, but as it moved north, it did not work its way inland, and so most states north of North Carolina escaped the rains as did the US Open.

Although the hurricane missed New York, conditions became increasingly windy and stayed windy for about a week, causing players to adjust their hitting for a more conservative style.

Basically, there was no rain.  There was some thought there would be rain on Saturday, but both semifinals were played without any interruptions.  When Djokovic took five sets to beat Roger Federer, Nadal had to be secretly gleeful were he that kind of person, which, by most accounts, he’s not.  Djokovic knew he would have to recover quickly.  Someone told him there was a chance of rain, and Djokovic wanted a way to summon the rains so he could play on Monday.

Perhaps the luck of the gaudy Djokovic t-shirt that his dad has been wearing and a similar shirt that his mom is now wearing brought some rain.  It didn’t rain all day today.  Indeed, they were able to play women’s doubles and the boy’s singles match.

The finalists in the boys singles were, coincidentally, invited to join the Davis Cup team in the US tie with Serbia.  Although Serbia won this rather handily, both Jack Sock and Denis Kudla got to hang out with the US team (Querrey, Isner, and the Bryan brothers).  Indeed, things were so friendly that Djokovic hit with Jack Sock and has hit with him at other times as well, believing Sock is a good talent. (In the picture above, Kudla is on the left, while Sock, holding the winner’s trophy, is on the right).

Denis Kudla took the first set against Jack Sock 6-3 but Sock came back strong taking the second and third sets, 6-2 and 6-2.

This is the third consecutive year that the US Open final has been played on a Monday.  In 2008, there was a storm working its way north.  Roger Federer was scheduled to play Novak Djokovic in the first semifinals.  The original schedule was noon, but it was pushed an hour earlier to 11 AM.  When it looked like the storm would arrive sooner than expected, they had Rafael Nadal play Andy Murray at 12:30 PM on an adjacent court.  Federer beat Djokovic in four sets while Nadal and Murray only got about two sets completed before rain washed out play that day.  Murray and Nadal came back the next day and Murray beat Nadal for the first time.  The finals were played on Monday.

In 2009, September 11 fell on a Friday.  That whole day was rained out.  Normally, the women play their semifinals on that day and the men get the day off.  However, Nadal was in the middle of a match against Fernando Gonzalez when bad weather postponed the match Thursday evening.   Although he only needed about half an hour to complete the match on Saturday, the men’s semifinals were pushed to Sunday.  This forced the men’s finals to be pushed to Monday.

Will the rest help Djokovic win?  It can’t hurt, one imagines.  Djokovic has beaten Nadal the last three times they met.  Admittedly, this was during a period where Nadal was on a slump, at least, a slump for Nadal.  Nadal didn’t win a title from Madrid 2009 through Miami 2010.  He played Djokovic three times during this period.  They met in Cincinnati.  At that point, Nadal had taken off since the French Open and so he was a bit rusty.  It turns out his abs were bothering him too, but he didn’t let on until the US Open.  Djokovic won that match easily.

Then, they played in the semifinals of Paris indoors.  Again, Djokovic won that easily.  Nadal had his “worst” sustained effort when he lost all three round robin matches in the ATP World Tour Final (to Djokovic, Davydenko, and Soderling).  The two have yet to play in 2010, mostly because Djokovic hasn’t played deep enough in tournaments to meet Nadal.

Since the start of the year, Nadal has been working on being more aggressive on the hard courts, trying to step in more, but he seemed to lack the confidence to win.  He lost to Davydenko in Doha, to Murray in the Australian Open, to Ivan Ljubicic in Indian Wells and to Andy Roddick in Miami.  Once he got on clay, however, Nadal was a new man.  He crushed his opponents in Monte Carlo allowing Verdasco one game in the finals.

Since then, Nadal has been playing pretty well.  He lost to Murray in Toronto and to Baghdatis in Cincinnati, but has yet to drop a set in the US Open.

While I think Djokovic has a good chance to win and I expect a good match, I think Nadal will be able to make Novak’s life difficult.  Nadal’s serve and his aggression has improved.

I’ve been waiting for Djokovic to play Nadal all year.  They generally play pretty good matches, so I’d love to see what happens.

Until tomorrow, then!