USO Day 2: Day of Upsets (Early Results)

For a second day in a row, the temperature reached the 90s (around 30C) in New York City, and the heat appears to have produced upsets.  Marcos Baghdatis may be rethinking his decision to play New Haven.  He didn’t win the tournament, but he had been playing hot tennis up to then.  The lesson?  Be wary of wily veterans.  Once Agassi retired, Arnaud Clement claimed the mantle of pirate tennis player with a bandana covering his head and wrap-around sunglasses and he took out the lone Cypriot in 5 sets: 6-3, 2-6, 1-6, 6-4, 7-5.

Mardy Fish also had a weirdly tough match.  He went five sets, but each of this three sets were totally lopsided against the Czech, Jan Hajek.  Final score: 6-0, 3-6, 4-6, 6-0, 6-1.

Veteran Rainer Schuettler lost to Frenchman Benoit Paire in five sets: 6-3, 6-3, 4-6, 4-6, 7-6 (7-2).  In one of the toughest opening rounds, Ernests Gulbis had to play Jeremy Chardy who made the quarterfinals of Toronto a few weeks ago.  Gulbis showed some signs that he was ready to break through taking a set off Nadal and beating Roger Federer on clay, but he seems to have taken a step backwards.  He lost in straight sets to Chardy: 6-2, 7-6 (7-1), 6-4.

Several Spaniards had straight sets wins today.  Tommy Robredo beat Lukas Rosol of the Czech Republic.  Feliciano Lopez beat a talented Santiago Giraldo, and Daniel Gimeno-Traver beat the best Finnish player ever, Jarkko Nieminen.

Robby Ginepri fell in four sets to Argentine Eduardo Schwank.  Philipp Petzschner won easily in straight sets over Dusan Lojda of the Czech Republic.

Novak Djokovic is fighting for his life.  He took the fourth set, 7-5, to tie the match at two sets each.  Fognini took the first set easily over Verdasco, 6-1.   Julien Benneteau is up 2 sets to love against Radek Stepanek, who has been off the tour for some time (he dd play some since Wimbledon, but not a great deal).

Peter Polansky of Canada who got past the first round in Toronto is giving Juan Monaco some trouble.  He’s up two sets to love against the 30th seed.

USO Day 1: Did Fed hit the best shot ever–again?

If you could boil down the US Open 2009 into one shot, one singular feat, it would have to be Roger Federer’s tweener against Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the US Open.

This is how it went down.  Djokovic is down 0-30.  If he loses his serve, Federer will win the match.  Djokovic hits a serve up the middle.  Roger slices it up the middle deep.  Djokovic peddles to his left and back and hits a big inside-out shot.  Roger moves to his left and barely slices a ball to the middle of the court.  Djokovic decides to drop-shot and come to net.  Federer pushes the ball up the line.  Djokovic lob volleys.  Federer runs back and hits the tweener crosscourt to Djokovic’s forehand side.  It lands cleanly and Federer jumps in glee.  The announcers are stunned at how good the shot is.

On a day that saw Federer playing Argentine, Brian Dabul, a guy that had never played in the main draw of the US Open, Federer was exuding confidence, hitting many more winners and aces than his opponent who, nonetheless, was able, like many top players, to stay in some rallies and hit with the best of them.

Dabul is down 5-3 in the second set after Federer has taken the first set 6-2.  However, it is his ad, and he is serving to hold.  Dabul swings a lefty serve out wide.  Federer drives a backhand crosscourt on his return.  Dabul goes up the line (but not too close) on his forehand.  Federer hits the shot back up the line.  Dabul goes crosscourt again.  Federer hits a sharp angle backhand to Dabul’s forehand side.  Dabul response with another sharp forehand angle.

Federer goes for another crosscourt backhand, this time closer to the T.  Dabul hits his crosscourt lefty forehand to Federer’s backhand, but Fed had run around it, and hit a slice forehand inside-in to Dabul’s backhand.  Dabul moves to his right, tosses a high lob, the only shot he can hit.  He is well-wide of the deuce sidelines and is returning back to the center of the court after the lob goes over his head.

Fed chases it down and hits the tweener close to the back wall and hits it towards the sideline that Dabul just ran away from (since Dabul was getting centered).  Dabul smiles as the shot goes past.  Federer also smiles and raises his arm, then quickly pulls it down in a motion similar to Robin Soderling when he pulled the impossible feat and beat Nadal at the French.

Overall, Federer was moving well and hitting hard.  He’s back to using his backhand more and hitting it with more velocity.  He’s moving well.  Yes, he still makes inexplicable errors, but now he’s not shanking as much.  He just misses long or wide or in the net, which is how most players tend to miss it.  This Federer is striking the ball quite well.  The downside, such as it is, is that Federer is still relatively impatient.  He is trying for big shots, trying to end points early, and he’d rather win the point than watch his opponent lose it.  That lack of patience often means he makes more errors than he should.

Federer’s genius has been to make these big shots more often than he doesn’t, to space out the errors.  But as far as clean hitting goes, he’s hitting as clean as I’ve seen, perhaps better than the Australian Open.  You can tell when Roger is doing well when he slices less and drives his backhand more.  When he trusts his backhand enough not to run around it, then he’s flowing with great confidence.

To be fair, Dabul is the kind of opponent that Roger can get grooved on.  Although Dabul moves the ball around pretty well, and isn’t completely intimidated by Roger’s power, he himself isn’t a power hitter.  He hit four winners, and hardly any aces.  Dabul simply doesn’t scare Roger and when Roger’s confidence flows.

Roger now faces another lefty in Andreas Beck.  Beck’s ranking has slipped to 104, but he was as high as 33 in the world.  Presumably, Beck will be more aggressive.  In any case, Roger has to feel that getting two lefties in a row is a blessing if he has to play Rafa in the finals.

If Roger wins, then he plays a Frenchman in the third round.  It will either be Paul-Henri Mathieu or Guillaume Rufin. Paul-Henri Mathieu upset Hewitt in 5 sets.  Mathieu can be difficult, but his ranking has slipped as his other Frenchman claimed higher rankings.  Rufin is 20, and is one of the younger competitors out there.  He was a wildcard in a deal that the US Open, the French Open, and the Australian Open have where they give the other two countries one wildcard each of their choice.  Rufin apparently was the French choice so the French must see some potential in this guy.  And with that wildcard, he beat Leonardo Mayer of Argentina in four sets, winning two tiebreaks.  This match of the Frenchmen could be interesting with a tour veteran meeting the young upstart.

But I digress.

Was this tweener better than last year’s?  In my opinion, yes.  Sure, last year’s was on a bigger stage.  It was in the semifinals.  Djokovic went down 0-40 on that point and eventually lost the match when he got broken.  Meanwhile, Dabul was serving his ad in the game and although there was a minor struggle, Dabul held his serve (not that it mattered, since Dabul was already down a break by this point, and would go on to lose the second set).

Djokovic hit a delicate lob-volley which Fed reached just behind the baseline.  Djokovic was already at net, and it’s easier to pass someone at net than at the baseline where you have time to react and move.  By contrast, Dabul’s lob was more of a real (though desperation) lob.  Federer reached the ball much deeper (near the back wall) and Dabul was at the baseline, meaning he had, in theory, more time to chase the ball down.  To be fair, Dabul had, on the previous Fed inside-in slice, been pulled way off court to his right, and Dabul was running to his left to cover the center of the court.  Fed played the shot “behind” Dabul, perhaps all the more impressive given Fed’s court sense that he could “aim” there (to be fair, it was the same spot he aimed for against Djokovic).  Fed hits that shot so well that you feel he’s practiced this a tremendous number of times and knows how hard and where to aim to make the shot spectacular.

So, as far as tweeners go, this is a better shot than last year’s shot.  There are other shots that may be more technically difficult (Monfils has hit a passing shot with his entire body in the air), but few that are so showoff-y and few that scare men as much as the tweener.  Until Roger Federer hit last year’s tweener (he has tried it before, but in less illustrious situations), the most famous tweener was by Yannick Noah in 1983 when he hit a tweener against Aaron Krickstein in the fourth round.  Krickstein actually got a racquet on it (he volleyed it) and Noah hit a passing shot to win the point.

So kudos to Roger who shows that only he should try this shot.  After all, he is a professional.

USO Day 1: Andy Roddick wins opening round easily

It’s the last Slam of the year.  Let’s quickly go over today’s matches.

Let’s start with the seeds.  Davydenko (6) beat Michael Russell 6-4, 6-1, 6-3.  This is a solid win.  Davydenko seems like he’s regaining form.  At least, he’s beating players he should beat.  Robin Soderling (5) beat unheralded Haider-Mauer, but it took 5 sets, a bit of a shock.  7-5, 6-3, 6-7(2), 5-7, 6-4.

Lleyton Hewitt, who snatched the last seed (32), lost in 5 sets to the Frenchman, Paul-Henri Mathieu in five sets: 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1. It looks like Hewitt may have gotten tired at the end.  Andy Roddick (9) had a comfortable straight set win over Stephane Robert.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (22) had an easy straight sets win over Slovakian Martin Klizan.  Marin Cilic (11) had a more challenging win but still defeated Illya Marchenko in straight sets.  Cilic has had an indifferent year since the Australian, so it will be good for him to get some solid wins.

Albert Montanes (21) needed five sets to beat Pole Michal Przysiezny, but it was 6-0 in the fifth.  Lefty Thomaz Bellucci (26) beat Tim Smyczek in three close sets.  Gael Monfils (17) had to work hard to beat American Robert Kendrick in five sets.  Fernando Gonzalez showed his form was still rusty and retired in the third set against Ivan Dodig.  Melzer (13) beat former top 20 player Dmitry Tursunov in five long sets.

Some of the other interesting wins.  Kei Nishikori won his match when his opponent Evgeny Korolev retired in the middle of the second set.  Gasquet had an easy straight set win over Greul.  Kevin Anderson won in the battle of American college tennis players beating former NCAA champ, Somdev Devvarman in straight sets.  Former top junior, Ricardas Berankis, beat American Ryan Sweeting in 4 sets.  American Taylor Dent had a nice win over Alejandro Falla in straight sets.

Federer looks like he’s heading for a straight set win over Brian Dabul in the evening match.  He won the first set 6-1 and is up a break in the second.  Fed is striking the ball really well.  He just fetched a lob over his head, hit a tweener, and passed Dabul who was at the baseline, topping his Djokovic shot from last year.  Dabul looked stunned.  Fed had to run deeper to get the shot and passed a guy at the baseline.

Tomorrow Djokovic plays Troicki in the afternoon while Nadal takes on Gabashivili in the early evening match.

Stakhovsky wins New Haven over Istomin

Is it Ian Westermann’s dark haired Ukrainian right-handed doppleganger?  Whatever the case, Sergiy Stakhovsky has won his fourth title, and his second this year.  His opponent was Denis Istomin whose story of a car accident that broke his leg as a teen and left him playing no tennis for two years is one that might serve as inspiration.

Stakhovsky won despite dropping the first set, 6-3, to Istomin, by taking sets 2 and 3 by the scores of 6-3 and 6-4.  Stakhovsky shows a bit of touch, hitting drop shots with his forehand.  The two had only met in Challenger events with Istomin winning 3 of 4, but it was the Ukrainian who won.  Istomin plays for Uzbekistan, but lives in Russia, trained by his mother.

The event was played Saturday evening so the players would have an additional day to recover and get ready for the US Open.  Istomin has the tougher draw, potentially having to face Rafa Nadal in the second round.  Stakhovsky might have to play Ljubicic in the second round which, while tough, is better than facing Rafa.

US Open main rounds start on Monday.  Roger Federer and Nikolay Davydenko play on the first day.  Federer will start his first match in an evening match against Brian Dabul of Argentina.  Davydenko starts off with Michael Russell.

Who’s in form (and not) heading into the US Open?

Although past performance is not always an indicator of future success, what else do we have to use for predictions?  So, here we go looking at players in form and not.

In Form

Roger Federer

Here was a guy who had an amazing streak of reaching semifinals of Slams dating back 5 years.  Had Fed not gotten mono in 2008, he would have had an (even more) impressive streak reaching finals of Slams.  All this went away in two consecutive Slams.  In the French, Roger lost to one hard hitter in Robin Soderling in the quarters, then he lost to another hard hitter in Tomas Berdych in the quarters at Wimbledon.  Everyone said his game was done for, especially after Nadal’s dominant performance winning the French and Wimbledon.

But what a difference  5-6 weeks make.  Roger entered Toronto and Cincinnati and got to the finals of one and won the other.  In the process, he beat players that had given him trouble, including digging deep to beat Berdych down a break in the third set.  Roger had complained his back and legs were bothering him.  Many said it was sour grapes, but he came back moving better than ever.  His backhand was better.  He was holding serve more easily.

If there’s anything that seems troubling, it’s that his matches seem to go on longer than they have to.  He’s often pushed to another set, or having to wait for a late break because he’s not returning spectacularly well.  Roger’s return game has never been a huge strength.  He certainly returns well, but he likes to end points somewhat quickly on big shots, and has generally never liked waiting for his opponents to make errors.

Even so, he’s the one to watch.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray was criticized for winning too many tournaments but not being a serious enough threat at the majors last year.  In 2009, he lost to Fernando Verdasco saying he was ill during the Slam.  He reached the semis of Wimbledon, but fell to Andy Roddick in four sets.  He reached the quarterfinals of the French, his best showing at Roland Garros up to that point.  He then lost early to Marin Cilic in the fourth round of the US Open, a disappointing result for a man who puts the US Open as his best chance to win a Slam.

Andy Murray reached his second Slam final in Australia this year, but again fell to Roger Federer in straight sets.  Then, he went into a funk, didn’t want to play, withdrew from Marseilles, lost early in Dubai, and although he had a decent QF result in Indian Wells, it was followed by a shocking exit to Mardy Fish early in Miami.  Murray would then lose handily to Philipp Kohlschreiber in Monte Carlo before he tried to get his game in gear.

He lost to David Ferrer twice, but at that point, Ferrer was playing some of his best tennis.  It didn’t translate to a deep French Open run, but even so.  Murray lost in the fourth round to Tomas Berdych at Roland Garros before reaching the semifinals again at Wimbledon where he succumbed in straight sets to eventual champ, Rafael Nadal.

Andy then filled in for Novak Djokovic in Los Angeles.  Djokovic was supposed to play but withdrew prior to the tournament.  Murray reached the finals but lost to defending champ, Sam Querrey.

Murray then had his best result in a non-Slam.  He beat Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and took the title in Toronto.  In Cincinnati, Murray reached the quarterfinals, where he lost to Mardy Fish for the third time this year (he lost to him in Queen’s Club and Miami).  He had looked lackluster against Ernests Gulbis, but still pulled out the victory.

The upside is how well Murray played to win Toronto.  The downside was dealing with the heat in Cincinnati and looking somewhat listless against Gulbis and Fish.  Even so, he still pushed Fish to a third-set tiebreak.

Mardy Fish

Cincinnati was Fish’s big result.  Although he won Newport and Atlanta, making it one of Fish’s best stretch of playing tennis in a while, those are relatively small tournaments, especially Newport.  Those early wins might not have meant much had Fish lost early at both Toronto and Cincinnati.  Fish decided to skip Toronto, as did Andy Roddick, so both could train in the Austin heat.  Fish clearly benefited beating two Andy’s en route to a final appearance against Roger Federer and pushing Fed to three sets only dropping serve once, late in the third set.

Everyone points to his 30 lb weight loss, his increased mobility, and just the belief he can win.  With a huge serve, an ability to finish points off at the net, he looks poised to make a deep run in the US Open, but…

But, Mardy Fish has a bad draw.  He is in the same section as Marcos Baghdatis who is the other “hot player”.

Marcos Baghdatis

For a guy who reached the finals of the Australian Open a few years ago, Baghdatis was a talent that hasn’t quite been fully realized.  Last year, Baghdatis’s rank had dropped to around 100,  and he had to claw his way back up the ranks playing Challenger events.  Baghdatis upset Roger Federer in Indian Wells, but lost to Tommy Robredo in the next round.  Baghdatis then reached the finals of Washington DC, then went on to reach the semifinals of Cincinnati, beating Rafael Nadal in the quarters.  He lost to Federer in the semifinals.

As mentioned earlier, he likely faces Mardy Fish in the third round of the US Open, which is bad for both players who’d rather see someone with less recent success.

David Nalbandian

Some call him the most talented player playing never to have won a Slam.  Well, they used to say that until Andy Murray came along.  Like many of Federer’s rivals, Nalbandian was someone Federer found tough to beat early in his career.  Later in his career, Nalbandian struggled to stay relevant much like another top player, Lleyton Hewitt.  Nalbandian was recovering from injury and spent time training for Davis Cup in Russia where he single-handedly gave 2 wins for Argentina.  Were del Potro healthy, Argentina might have been a formidable team.

Nalbandian then came to Washington DC and on the strength of his big return game, he won the tournament.  In Toronto, many felt he might topple Andy Murray, but Murray came out with a fierce attack against Nalbandian, who looked weary after his recent success.  Nalbandian lost to Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati in a match that threatened to go three sets.  But up to then, he looked sharp, returning well and pressuring opponent off the ground.

Nalbandian has a reasonably friendly draw.  He meets a qualifier in the first round.  He might meet Fernando Verdasco by the third round.  He might actually be favored since Verdasco hasn’t had a great summer.  They’ve only met once, back in 2006 at Wimbledon, which Verdasco won in three sets.

Almost In Form

Sam Querrey

If ATP 250 events were the only events where rankings mattered, Sam Querrey would be number 1.  He won Memphis, Queen’s Club, Belgrade, and Los Angeles.  He was a finalist in Houston and got to the semis of San Jose.  And that’s this year.  And yet, when it comes to ATP 500, Masters 1000, or Slams, Querrey’s results are more spotted.  He lost to Tipsarevic in the 2nd round of DC, then lost to Kevin Anderson in the 2nd round of Toronto, then to Ferrer in the 2nd round of Cincinnati.  Querrey is getting better at beating players outside of the top 20, but he only has the occasional win against players ranked highly, although he did get his best win recently beating Andy Murray in the finals of Los Angeles.

Querrey has a reasonably good draw early on.  His section would be a headache were he on clay, but on hard courts, he should fare better.  The players include Granollers, Seppi, Kubot, Garcia-Lopez, Almagro, and Starace.  However, he only has to face one of Kubot, Starace, Almagro, or Garcia-Lopez.  Almagro would be his toughest match, but Almagro hasn’t played tough hard court tennis.  Querrey should make it to the fourth round to meet Andy Murray.

Novak Djokovic

One wonders what would happen if Novak Djokovic were truly healthy.  He missed out on so many opportunities falling a round short on several occasions.  Despite his iffy health, he generally goes deep in tournaments and Slams.  He got to the semifinals of Wimbledon, the semifinals of Toronto, and the quarterfinals of Cincinnati losing to Berdych, Federer, and Roddick, respectively.  By and large, Djokovic usually only loses to players in the top 10.  Sure, he had a loss to Malisse and a loss to Melzer and Krajinovic, but although those losses are a bit shocking, Djokovic doesn’t usually play poorly in Slams.

He has a pretty friendly draw.  He starts out “tough” with Victor Troicki, but unless the heat gets to him, his head-to-head is strong against his fellow Serb.  Then, maybe Petzschner who gave Nadal some trouble at Wimbledon, then maybe Juan Monaco?  Djokovic, if he’s in form, should get to the fourth round to meet either Baghdatis or Fish and while they would likely give Djokovic a tough match, Djokovic would be favored against both of them.

Robin Soderling

We know this guy can play on hard courts.  Perhaps the two players that played best in the first two Masters hard court events, Indian Wells and Miami, were Andy Roddick (won one, finalist in the other) was Robin Soderling who reached the semifinals of both losing to Roddick in one and Berdych in the other.  Toronto and Cincinnati weren’t nearly as kind as he lost to a resurgent Nalbandian and a somewhat resurgent Andy Roddick.  Even so, Soderling generally loses to top ranked guys and get reasonably deep in Slams, the Australian Open of this year, not withstanding.

He faces a qualifier in the first round, either Taylor Dent or Alejandro Falla in the second, either Thiemo de Bakker or Fernando Gonzalez in the third (or some qualifier).  de Bakker is the player most in form, but it’s New Haven with a weakened field.  Last year, Gonzo would have been a problem, but he’s coming off of injury, so he’s not expected to be in great form.   Soderling may have one of the easier routes to the quarterfinals with no big threats.  Cilic would be his biggest challenge, but he’d have to start playing good again, which is possible.  It’s just that he hasn’t looked good in a while.

Andy Roddick

Ever since the French, Roddick has been good enough to win a few rounds, but not good enough to particularly deep.  He has yet to win a tournament since the French Open.

He announced, during Toronto, a tournament he skipped because of his early loss to Gilles Simon in DC, that he had had mono, but that he was getting over it.  He hadn’t had a super bad summer.  He did reach the semis of Atlanta, losing to Mardy Fish in the semifinals.  And, he lost to him in the semifinals of Cincinnati.  But he skipped Los Angeles this year, which is a tournament he usually plays.

Form-wise, I think Roddick might be getting back into shape.  There was a question of how fit he’d be, but he looked find in Cincinnati, and he’s had one more week to train.  He looks good, but it’s matches like the Fish match that Roddick needs to be wary of.

Roddick’s draw looks good for the first three rounds.  He might face Gael Monfils in the third round.  Monfils hasn’t played great, but he did hit well against Nadal in the US Open last year.  Monfils leads the head-to-head, but 3 of his wins are on clay, Roddick’s weakest surface.  Monfils hasn’t had a great summer either.  He lost to Murray in Toronto then to Falla in Cincy.  His next challenge would be Davydenko if he can reach the fourth round.  Davydenko might have to play, say Gasquet.  Were Davydenko in January form, he’d be favored to meet Roddick.  Right now, I’d say Roddick is playing better than Davydenko.

Nikolay Davydenko

Davydenko seems like one of these players that has to play his way into form.  After breaking his wrist and noticing it in Indian Wells, Davydenko didn’t return to tour until Halle, just before Wimbledon, then had a series of mediocre results.  He lost to Becker in Halle, Brands in Wimbledon, Gimeno-Traver in Stuttgart (on clay), Golubev at Hamburg, Chela in Umag, Chardy in Toronto, and finally Federer in Cincy where he had beaten Ferrer in the previous round.  In Toronto, Davydenko was spraying shots everywhere, his normal precise shots misfiring.  Presumably, he’d been struggling like this for about 2 months.  However, by Cincy, Davydenko was starting to look more like his self.  He’s not quite looking dominating like he did late last year and January, but he is at least keeping more balls in play.

The big question mark is whether he’s in good enough shape to make it deep at the US Open.  He might meet Gasquet in the second round and he might face Kevin Anderson in the third round.  His first real challenge would be Andy Roddick in the fourth round.  Roddick is in better form than Davydenko now, as is Djokovic.

Not in Form

Rafael Nadal

Of course, this is blatantly  unfair to Rafa.  An out-of-form Rafa is still a very good player.  He might be an in-form Verdasco.  But the fact remains that Rafa hasn’t looked this bad in a while.  He makes numerous errors.  He is slicing back returns.  He seems to have trouble handling the speed of the court.  Of course, Rafa struggles on the hard courts because it’s the surface of choice for most players.  But he never loses particularly early.  To Rafa, losing in the quarterfinals is losing early.  It’s rare he loses earlier than that.

He only played two events since Wimbledon: Toronto and Cincinnati.  He reached the semifinals of Toronto and the quarterfinals of Cincy.  He struggled against players he normally does well against including players like Kohlschreiber, Benneteau, and Wawrinka.  The peculiar aspect is that he didn’t look much better in Cincy than he did in Toronto.

However, Rafa rebounds as well as any player, so he should eliminate some of the errors.  Obviously, if he continues to play like he did in Cincy, he’ll lose early.  He faces Gabashvili in the first round.  Should be an easy win, but Gabashvili did play well at New Haven.  Then, he might play Istomin in the second round.  Istomin is in the finals of New Haven, so he might trouble Rafa.  He has to get some rest however.  Then, he might play Kohlschreiber again in the third round.  All these players have a chance to make life tough for Rafa, but probably none of them can sustain the kind of hitting to pull the upset off.

There’s nobody particularly intimidating in the fourth round, though Rafa did lose to two players that could meet him there.  He lost to Feliciano Lopez at Queen’s, but it seemed like a strategic loss (much like Baghdatis).  He also lost to Ivan Ljubicic in Indian Wells, but Ljubicic seems to have taken a bit of a vacation since Indian Wells.  It’s questionable whether Ljubicic will reach the fourth round to meet him.  He’ll need to play inspired ball to get there.  If he does, then there’s a chance he could trouble Nadal, but his current form suggest otherwise.

Fernando Verdasco

Speaking of Verdasco, here’s a guy in the top 10 that normally does well on hard courts.  He’s had an indifferent summer, but his losses were to players that went deep, including losing to Baghdatis in DC (he reached the finals), to Chardy in Toronto (reached the quarters) and to Fish in Cincy (reached the finals).  Many feel he burned himself out playing too much tennis in the clay season where he not only played all three Masters 1000 clay events (Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid) but additionally played Barcelona and Nice, and he went pretty deep in nearly every tournament.

Verdasco plays Fognini in the first round, but his biggest challenge if he gets past Fognini is Nalbandian in the third round.  Verdasco might play inspired ball, but his form isn’t good heading in.

Wrap Up

Form doesn’t tell the entire story.  Nadal and Djokovic were playing the best clay tennis heading into the French in 2009, but both had played too much and both lost early.  And sometimes, even when you play hot, fate gives you a bad draw, like it did Mardy Fish and Marcos Baghdatis who are expected to meet in the 3rd round.  It’s not really fair to either player who have had a great summer to have to play each other that soon.

So there you have it.  The US Open starts on Monday!

New Haven QF

Sigh.  I suppose there’s a tournament going on in New Haven.  Marcos Baghdatis, semifinalist at Cincy, decided to come to New Haven to play.  Mardy Fish, finalist at Cincy, decided to skip, even though he was scheduled to play.

It happens somewhat surprising that players get deep in a tournament before a Slam, and the luck of the draw puts them near each other in the Slam.

Case in point.  Denis Istomin beat Teimuraz Gabashvili in three sets in the quarterfinals.  These two could meet again in the second round of the US Open, but there’s only one way that could happen.  Gabashvili would have to beat Nadal in the first round.  So, the more likely story is Nadal beats Gabashvili, then moves into the second round, and beats Istomin.  Still, with both these players playing deep in New Haven, they might be in good enough form to bother Nadal somewhat.

Stakhovsky, who beat Baghdatis in three sets, will open against Aussie Peter Luczak.  He might get Ljubicic in the second round.  Given Ljubicic’s uneven form, Stakhovsky might be happy to meet Ljubicic and hope for the upset.

Baghdatis opens up against Clement.  His biggest challenge is likely in the third round where he might potentially meet Mardy Fish.  Two of the hottest players have the misfortune of meeting each other early at the Open.

Troicki just beat Stepanek in the late night quarterfinals.  Troicki has the misfortune of playing Djokovic in the first round of the US Open.  He’s only ever beaten Djokovic once, which was in their first meeting.  He’s also the answer to an interesting trivia question.  Gael Monfils nearly won the junior Grand Slam, winning 3 of 4 Slams, but missing out on the US Open.  Who did Monfils lose to?  It was Troicki.  Andy Murray won the junior US Open instead.

Radek Stepanek opens up his US Open with a tough opponent in Julien Benneteau who just barely missed getting seeded.  Hewitt was the last player seeded with Llodra the first player unseeded and Benneteau just behind him.  Stepanek is probably not in good enough shape to win his opening round having missed the entire clay court season and just getting back into playing tennis again.  Otherwise, he’s a tricky player that plays weird enough, attacks the net enough, that he poses a challenge to many players.

Korolev lost to de Bakker in straight sets.  At the US Open, Korolev will play a qualifier in his first round US Open match.  If he gets past that, he may play Cilic in the second round.  de Bakker also faces a qualifier in his US Open first round and may play a rusty Fernando Gonzalez in his first round match.

In the semifinals, Stakhovsky plays de Bakker while Troicki plays Istomin.  One plus of playing a tournament just before the US Open is that top players skip the event, so it gives an opportunity for lower ranked player to win a tournament.  Realize many players are happy with only a handful of tournament wins.  Tim Henman only won 11 titles in his career while Andy Murray won 11 titles in 2008-2009.

US Open Draw Announced

Quick note: Andy Murray is again in Rafael Nadal’s section of the draw.  This is the third time this year that this has happened at a Slam.  Murray was on Federer’s half of the draw at the French, but was eliminated before he could meet Federer.

We’ll go section by section each section is 16 players.  Winners reach the quarterfinals.

Section 1

Nadal is the top seed.  He opens up with Gabashvili.  Gabashvili eliminated Roddick at the French.  Nadal would meet the winner of Maximo Gonzalez and Denis Istomin.  Oddly enough, Istomin and Gabashvili are meeting in the quarterfinals this evening at the Pilot Pen Classic in New Haven.  So Nadal may be getting two players in good form.  Even so, an off-Nadal should be able to handle both.  Istomin gave Berdych some trouble at Wimbledon.

The next four are Gilles Simon taking on Donald Young and Tobias Kamke taking on Philipp Kohlschreiber.  Young recently broke into the top 100 at 100.  He’s a wildcard (would have had to qualify otherwise).  Simon is trying to regain the form that put him in the top 10 back in 2008.  Young did OK at New Haven, but he’s out already.  The likely winner out of this group is Kohlschreiber.  Nadal played Kohlschreiber recently and took Nadal to 3 sets.

In the remaining 8, you have Lopez who beat Nadal at Queen’s, Rainer Schuettler who was in the semifinals of Wimbledon against Nadal in 2008, and Ivan Ljubicic who beat Rafa in Indian Wells earlier this year.  Although Ljubicic might seem to be the favorite, he’s not played well since Indian Wells.  For example, he had a good head-to-head over Nalbandian, but when the two recently met, Nalbandian, who has been playing well lately, won.  No particular favorite to come out of this eight.

Prediction: Nadal, but there are a few players that have given him trouble, notably Kohlschreiber, and to a lesser extent, Ljubicic.

Section 2

Top seeds in this section are Ferrer and Verdasco.  Neither have played well on hard courts this year.  Ferrer starts off with a doozy taking on up-and-comer Aleksandr Dolgopolov.  Gulbis is seeded, but faces Jeremy Chardy who recently reached the quarterfinals of Toronto.  Gulbis has his work cut out for him.  Nalbandian is in the same section as Verdasco.  If he plays as well as he has been, he might be favored to get out of Section 2.

Prediction: Nalbandian, but it’s somewhat wide open with Gulbis and Verdasco possibilities to move along.  I’d love to see Nalbandian play Nadal.

Section 3

Murray is in the same top-half of Section 3 as Wawrinka.  Wawrinka has not played all that well, having a few good wins, but a few lopsided losses.  Lukas Lacko can be tough, but Murray’s draw is relatively friendly compared to Nadal’s draw.

In the bottom half of Section 3, Sam Querrey opens up against NCAA champ, Bradley Klahn.  Presumably, an easy win for Querrey.  A few solid Italians in Starace and Seppi in Sam’s section, plus hard hitting Almagro, who hasn’t played that well the past month or two.

Prediction: Murray.  None of the players in this section are too problematic for Murray.  Querrey did recently beat Murray in LA, but it will probably be a challenge to pull it off twice.

Section 4

Berdych and Youzhny are the top seeds here.  Youzhny played well on clay and even late last year and early this year.  Haven’t heard much lately.  He opens up against a tough guy in Andrey Golubev.  Dudi Sela opens up against Xavier Malisse who made a deep run in Atlanta.  Jack Sock, a top American junior, opens up against Swiss number 3, Marco Chiudinelli.  Berdych opens up with a whopper playing Michael Llodra who barely missed being seeded.  He may face Hanescu in the second round.  Stepanek opens up against Benneteau, which will be tough too, given their similar rankings.  John Isner plays Frederico Gil who reached the finals of Estoril and almost became the first Portugeuse player to win an ATP event.  Isner recently injured himself and it attempting to wing it at the US Open.  Can’t imagine Isner will go too deep, but if he is 70%, he might go a few rounds.

Prediction: Berdycb, but this section is pretty tough especially for Berdych and Youzhny.

Section 5 (bottom half)

Davydenko and Roddick are the top seeds.  Davydenko opens with American Michael Russell who will need to check with Tennis Express to be sure he has equipment.  Davydenko might meet Richard Gasquet in the second round.  Two college kids, Kevin Anderson and Somdev Devvarman meet in the first round.  Roddick has mostly clay court types in his section.  Monfils is the top seed and might prove a challenge.  Roddick should get through to meet Monfils.  Monfils is so up and down, it’s hard to say that he could beat Roddick.  Roddick is perhaps thrilled to see no Americans in his section.

Prediction: Roddick.  Davydenko is probably not yet in full form.  He did reasonably well in Cincy, but will need to up his level.  Davydenko has given Roddick trouble in the past, but Roddick is in better form than Davydenko right now.  I would not have said the same thing in January.

Section 6

Baghdatis opens with tour veteran, Arnaud Clement.  Fish is in the top half with him.  This could be a tough matchup should they meet each other.  Both have been playing pretty well heading into the US Open with Baghdatis being the DC finalist and reaching the semifinals in Cincy.

In the bottom half of Section 6, Djokovic meets Serbian number 2, Victor Troicki.  They just met in Cincy with Djokovic winning in straight sets.  Troicki, who is still in New Haven, must be bummed as a lucky draw might have him going a few rounds.  Petzschner is probably the tough guy in Djokovic’s bottom half.  He would be expected to meet Fish or Baghdatis in the fourth round.

Prediction: Djokovic.  It’s tough that Fish and Baghdatis could meet in the third round.  I’d probably pick Fish to meet Djokovic.  Djokovic should get to the fourth round before his first tough match.

Section 7

Soderling and Cilic are in this section.  Cilic has played very up-and-down sometimes losing early.  Soderling hasn’t played that well so far, but he’s probably the most in form.  Thiemo de Bakker and Evgeny Korolev are in this section and just met each other in New Haven (de Bakker won).  Fernando Gonzalez and Albert Montanes are the other two seeds.  Gonzalez has played minimally the last few months, and is having a very down 2010 compared to a solid 2009.  This section is one of the easier sections, but it has no strong contenders in terms of recent performance.

Prediction: Soderling.  Cilic might play inspired ball, but he hasn’t lately.

Section 8

Federer again has a pretty sweet draw.  The seeds are all as old has him.  Jurgen Melzer, Lleyton Hewitt, and Juan Carlos Ferrero.  These are all players around Federer’s age.  Hewitt is the only one who has beaten Federer recently at Halle.  But Federer has gaudy records against all of them (I think he’s only played Melzer the one time at Wimbledon this year, an easy win).  Federer should be able to cruise to the quarterfinals.

Overall impressions

Of the top 4 seeds, the toughest draw belongs to Djokovic, and really, only when he gets to the fourth round where he might meet Baghdatis or Fish.  Then, Nadal, who has a bunch of good players in his section, though no one he couldn’t handle.  Then, Murray, and finally Federer.  Federer tends to get pretty good draws at Slams.

The toughest section is the one with Novak Djokovic, then maybe Davydenko or Berdych having some tough opponents in the early rounds.  The Verdasco-Ferrer section (section 2) is also filled with dangerous players including Nalbandian, Dolgopolov, Chardy and Gulbis.  Neither Verdasco nor Ferrer are so strong that they can get out of this section comfortably, so it’s the one that is open to a player like Nalbandian or Gulbis making a deep run.

The More Things Change

Let’s rewind back to Wimbledon which was where the men were playing before the US Open Series began.  Rafael Nadal had endured two five-setters, then beat Robin Soderling (again) and then beat Tomas Berdych in the final.  Oh yes, he beat Brit hopeful, Andy Murray once again.  Rafa had been playing more aggressive tennis, trying to step in more, and he was finding great success.

He accomplished the French-Wimbledon double for the second time, and it was the third year in a row the rare feat was done (Nadal in 2008, Fed in 2009, and Nadal again in 2010).  Until then, Bjorn Borg was the only one that had done the double (and he did in three consecutive years).

When Nadal won Wimbledon, and when Federer lost in the quarterfinals (again!) to Berdych (he lost to Soderling in the quarters of the French), everyone kinda said Federer was done.  He couldn’t keep the ball in play enough, and hard hitting players like Soderling and Berdych were ready to pass him by.  Remember many predicted that Roger couldn’t reach number 1 again (even if he wins the US Open, it will be tough because Rafa does so well at Masters 1000 events).

And then?

Weeks passed.  Roger rested.  Rafa rested.  Djokovic rested.  Murray mostly rested.  Except for Murray, the top guys spent about a month not playing.  Toronto was the first tournament back for best players.  Murray had taken a last-minute wildcard to LA when Djokovic dropped out.  He had planned to play LA, but didn’t.

Then, they all came back.  Roger looked, well, at least a lot better moving around the court than he had.  Maybe not quite to Australian Open standards, but not that far either.  Roger was attacking more, perhaps courtesy of Paul Annacone.  Maybe he felt that taking chances at the net would lead to shorter points.

And Rafa?  We know Rafa generally struggles on hard courts, but usually, Rafa has played solid tennis from Australia to Wimbledon and his body is starting to break down.  Meanwhile, there are many players that excel on hard courts from Djokovic to Murray to Davydenko.  Rafa broke down earlier than usual last year.  He lost to Soderling at the French and then didn’t play again until Montreal, taking a huge break.  He said that he wasn’t 100% so any losses should be expected.  He lost to del Potro in the quarters of the Rogers Cup and then to Djokovic in the semifinals of Cincinnati.  And this was with an abdominal injury that wasn’t revealed until the US Open.

This year, Rafa was able to play the French and Wimbledon since he took off a great deal of time between the Australian Open and Indian Wells.  But he took about a month off after Wimbledon which he normally does.  You have to go back to 2007 to find Rafa playing a post-Wimbledon match before the Rogers Cup, and then, Rafa would play clay usually Stuttgart and sometimes Bastad.   Rafa basically avoids the early hard court tournaments (Los Angeles, Indianapolis/Atlanta, Washington DC).

But this year, Rafa looked a lot shakier than usual.  At the French and at Wimbledon, Rafa was much steadier than either Toronto or Cincy where his unusual number of unforced errors let players like Philipp Kohlschreiber, Julien Benneteau, and Marcos Baghdatis take a set off him.  Rafa had shown he was vulnerable on the hard courts prior to the clay court swing.  He had lost to Ljubicic at Indian Wells and Andy Roddick in Miami.  Indeed, until Monte Carlo, he had not won a title since Rome the previous year.  But with a dominant clay court performance (3 Masters 1000 titles and the French Open) plus a win at Wimbledon, everyone was saying Rafa might take the US Open.

And yet, he’s looked surprisingly unsteady.  Why?  Not clear.  Even so, consider last year.  Rafa was even in worse shape and yet, he reached the quarters of one Masters 1000 event and the semis of another.  What did he do this year?  Reach the semis of one Masters 1000 event (Toronto) and the quarters of another (Cincy).  Rafa has also reached the semifinals of the last two US Opens.  There are those ready to write off Rafa saying he’ll lose in an early round despite Rafa being one of the best competitors out there.

And Roger?  He blamed his losses at the French and Wimbledon to a bad back and legs.  He said he needed the rest, and he’d be back to his normal self.  Many, including Tomas Berdych, felt Roger was making excuses.  The reality is that many players deal with injuries all the time.  Few players are truly 100%.  Maybe they have blisters or a chronic injury.  Murray has had issues with his knees.  He deals.  Rafa has problems with his feet.  He deals.  Even the supposedly healthy Federer probably manages some pain here and there.  It’s not like he’d tell us.

Roger claimed 10 days of rest and he was feeling good again.  During the same time, Rafa was supposedly getting additional work on his knees.  But for whatever reason, Roger looked sharper than he had in a while and Rafa looked like he was misfiring, making a lot of unforced errors.  Roger hasn’t looked dominant in a long, long time, but he finds ways to win.  He struggled with his return game against Baghdatis and Fish, but won those matches.  He really struggled against Berdych, but won.

Although Roger won Cincy and reached the finals of Toronto, he’s not dominating like he has in the past.  He’s pulling out close matches.  Still, many observers seem to only care about his results, not about how close they were.  Berdych has struggled with mental toughness in matches.  To be fair, Roger pressured Berdych in the game he broke him in the third set of the quarterfinals at Toronto.  But he played high risk tennis that hadn’t been altogether successful until that game.  Roger will point to two things.  Overall, he’s held serve much better than before.  And, he has had chances to break, even as he plays loose points that prevent him from getting that break.

So, two months after Wimbledon, everyone’s opinion has changed.  Rafael Nadal looked unbeatable and now everyone says he’ll lose early at the US Open.  Roger Federer looked like he was in decline, and everyone says he’s favored to win the US Open.  While this is true right now, the US Open is a different beast.

And people are also pointing at Murray to win his first Slam or Djokovic to fall short, despite past experience showing that Djokovic has a reasonably good chance of going really deep at the Open.

Another week, and we’ll see!

US Open Men’s Seeds Announced

Today, the seeds were announced.  It follows the rankings.  The only two missing players are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin del Potro, the defending champ.  Players that just missed being seeded are a few Frenchmen: Michael Llodra, Julien Benneteau, and Richard Gasquet.  Nalbandian and Hewitt barely made the seedings.

1. Rafael Nadal, Spain
2. Roger Federer, Switzerland
3. Novak Djokovic, Serbia
4. Andy Murray, Great Britain

5. Robin Soderling, Sweden
6. Nikolay Davydenko, Russia
7. Tomas Berdych, Czech Republic
8. Fernando Verdasco, Spain

9. Andy Roddick, United States
10. David Ferrer, Spain
11. Marin Cilic, Croatia
12. Mikhail Youzhny, Russia
13. Jurgen Melzer, Austria
14. Nicolas Almagro, Spain
15. Ivan Ljubicic, Croatia
16. Marcos Baghdatis, Cyprus

17. Gael Monfils, France
18. John Isner, United States
19. Mardy Fish, United States
20. Sam Querrey, United States
21. Albert Montanes, Spain
22. Juan Carlos Ferrero, Spain
23. Feliciano Lopez, Spain
24. Ernests Gulbis, Latvia
25. Stanislas Wawrinka, Switzerland
26. Thomaz Bellucci, Brazil
27. Fernando Gonzalez, Chile
28. Radek Stepanek, Czech Republic
29. Philipp Kohlschreiber, Germany
30. Juan Monaco, Argentina
31. David Nalbandian, Argentina
32. Lleyton Hewitt, Australia

Rankings Shuffle

Every Monday, the new rankings come out (except in the middle week of Slams and during periods where no tournaments are played).  Slams and Masters 1000 potentially shuffle up the rankings more than usual because they are worth so many ATP points.

Mardy Fish’s run to the final means he is now in the top 25.  Indeed, 4 American men are in the top 25, though 3 of the 4 are very close to 25.  In particular, John Isner is 20, Mardy Fish is 21, and Sam Querrey is 22.  Marcos Baghdatis moved up to 18 in the world with his semifinal win.

This rankings lists is important because it will be used to determine the seeds for the US Open.  Although there is one more week before the US Open and one last tournament (New Haven), that tournament won’t count for the seeding.  That’s because the finals for New Haven will be played on Sunday while the draw will be released this Thursday.  This meant that Cincinnati was vitally important to Roger Federer who needed to reach the finals to maintain his lead over Djokovic at number 2 in the world.

Andy Roddick moved back into the top 10, though really, players ranked 9, 10, 11, 12 (which is Andy Roddick, Juan Martin del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and David Ferrer) are only separated by 200 points.  del Potro’s rank is about to take a huge hit when he skips the US Open during his recovery.  He will lose 2000 points and drop to about 40 in the world when that happens.  Even Tsonga is questionable to play the US Open.  He hasn’t played since suffering an injury at Wimbledon.

New Haven is the last tournament before the US Open.  Fernando Verdasco is defending champ, but is not playing this week.  As such, he will lose 250 points.  However, one of his other results will substitute which is worth 150 points and he will only lose a net of 100 points.  This will leave him marginally ahead of Andy Roddick.  Had he lost 250 points, he would move behind Andy Roddick and Roddick would be number 8 (though not in time for the US Open).

Everyone wonders how Novak Djokovic is 2 or 3 in the world.  Here are the reasons.  Djokovic has reached the quarterfinals or better of 6 Masters 1000 events, and of the 6, he has 3 semifinals and he’s won one (Paris Indoors).  Furthermore, he has 3 wins at ATP 500 events including defending Dubai earlier in the year and winning Basel and Beijing.  Djokovic had won more matches than anyone last year, based on great results on clay and great results from the US Open onwards.  Djokovic has done no worse than the quarterfinals in any Slam, having 2 semifinal apperances and 2 quarterfinal apperances in the last 4 Slams.  So, although Djokovic has won only 1 title this year (Dubai), he has a bunch of results after the US Open (Basel, Beijing).

Meanwhile, Murray, who had won 6 titles last year, has only won 1 title this year.  In Masters 1000 events, he has only 4 tournaments that he has reached the quarterfinals or better (and one win) compared to 6 for Djokovic.  Djokovic has one huge advantage over Murray in this respect.  Djokovic is a very good clay court player and yet plays well on all surfaces.  Murray does well on grass and hard courts, but has indifferent results on clay.

Murray only has one ATP 500 win compared to Djokovic’s three wins.  To be fair, both Djokovic and Murray had a better 2009 than 2010, but many of Murray’s results have already fallen off the books while Djokovic still has some late season results that is helping him keep his number 3 ranking.

Murray was, in fact, in danger of falling to number 5 behind Robin Soderling if he had not done well in Toronto.  Soderling’s style may not be very flexible, but he usually reaches the quarterfinals or better of most tournaments he plays, including Masters 1000 events.  He has two semifinal and two quarterfinal results, but he has 3 “oct-finals” in addition.  These results are the kind Querrey wants.  Querrey is the king of ATP 250 events where the field is just weak enough that he takes advantage.

Let’s quickly look at the top 10 heading into the Open.

Rafael Nadal

Rafa took a break after Wimbledon and returned to play at Toronto.  This was a break most of the top players usually take, including Federer and Djokovic.  Of the top 4, Rafa’s form looked a bit shaky, more than usual.  Rafa normally plays more aggressively on hard courts, but he was making an unusual number of unforced errors, which meant some matches were going to 3 sets that might not have in the past.  Rafa is more vulnerable to more players on hard courts than any other surface.  Still, Rafa’s errors seem higher than in the past, and he has reached the US Open semis two years in a row, and consider that he had taken an even longer break last year and had an abdominal injury.  I have to believe that one more week of practice will get Rafa into a better place and that best of 5 sets will help him through more matches (plus rest between rounds).

Roger Federer

Everyone said that Roger Federer was done for.  He lost in the quarters of the French and the quarters of the US Open.  He said he was injured.  Roger Federer had a great one-two, reaching the finals of Toronto and defending Cincy.  Federer’s return has resulted in two things: better court movement and better holds of serve.  Roger relies on holding serve reliably since he’s not the kind of guy that breaks serve a lot unless he zones out.  He’s not at the extreme that Sampras is where he’d gamble on one game a set and rely on opponents being unable to break him.

Although one could argue that Federer is back, he’s not been fantastic on return games.  He also nearly lost to Tomas Berdych being a break down in the third set.  Djokovic also had his chances against Federer in Toronto despite an awful first set.  I think Roger believes that he can deal with the close wins and that his experience will carry him through.  It’s happened a lot in the past.  The key for Roger, as always, is holding serve.  He did a pretty good job of that in the Cincy finals and it’s what he needs to do to give himself the best chance to win.  Ideally, he needs to cut his errors on return games and make his opponents work more.

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic might be a solid number 2 in the world had he been blessed with perfect health.  The man plays well on all surfaces.  He should have reached the semifinals of the Australian Open and French Open, but faded badly in both quarterfinals.  And, yet, yet, he reached quarterfinals.  It’s hard to fault someone who “underperforms” by reaching quarterfinals.  Andy Murray only wishes he could reach the French quarterfinals and be blamed for underperforming.

Djokovic generally plays well in Slams and generally is good to the quarterfinals.  He can beat pretty much everyone including Federer and Nadal, and yet, he can lose to players he shouldn’t.  He’s tinkered with his serve which has lead to an unusual stat: he averages more double faults than aces.  Indeed, one thing you learn about pros: it’s hard to change a part of your game, especially the serve.  Maria Sharapova struggled changing her serve motion and it lead to a lot of double faults.  She’s finally serving better.  Djokovic appears to be going back to his old style.  Unlike Tiger Woods who plays golf and can take a year to tinker with his game, most tennis players had much shorter careers and can’t afford to make changes that don’t work (Mardy Fish revamped his forehand as did Andy Roddick–even Roger Federer’s forehand has gotten spinnier over the years).

Andy Murray

Hardcourts are Murray’s favorite surface.  In the past, Murray has often done well because he returns exceptionally well.  Although Murray has been vulnerable to big hitters like Verdasco, Gonzalez, and such, he’s also had good results.  For example, Murray has pretty good results against del Potro who has given Nadal and Federer trouble.  However, because Murray doesn’t pound the ball, he can sometimes be overpowered.  Last year, he lost quite quickly to Marin Cilic and was disappointed despite a relatively good lead-up to the US Open.

The one unusual concern for Murray was his loss in Cincinnati.  He looked positively dazed against Gulbis, but he got the win in the end.  He didn’t look much better against Mardy Fish, but he still got to a third set tiebreak.  So, perhaps all his wincing was a bit of a ruse.  It’s not that Murray isn’t hurt, but that he can certainly work his way through pain as many athletes do.  Players like Rafa often have injuries (say, blisters on feet) that they block out and continue to win.

The one issue is that other players play well on hard courts including Berdych and Djokovic and even Cilic.  Murray had a very nice draw at Wimbledon which got him to the semifinals.  Although Murray is certainly capable of going deep at the US Open, he can be vulnerable (as most players) to a hot hard-hitting player (to be fair, true of most players).

Robin Soderling

Soderling has the kind of game that beats a lot of players.  He lacks a huge amount of versatility.  He doesn’t drop shot like Federer, Murray, or Djokovic.  But what he does, he generally does well at Slams.  He had a puzzling first round loss at the Australian Open, but by and large, Soderling gets to the round he is supposed to.  Last year, this meant a healthy dose of Federer.  He lost to Federer at the French, at Wimbledon, and at the US Open.  This year, it’s meant a healthy dose of Nadal.  He lost to Nadal at the French and at Wimbledon.  Soderling is potentially vulnerable to players like Federer, Nadal, Berdych, Roddick, and Djokovic.  In other words, he can struggle against players in the top 10, which is just as he should.

Nikolay Davydenko

Perhaps the best active player to have never reached a Slam final.  Davydenko peaked last year after the US Open right until the Australian Open.  He put a huge scare in Roger Federer, before succumbing to the Swiss maestro.  But then he broke his (left) wrist, dropped out of Indian Wells (after beating Gulbis in the first round) and didn’t return until just before Wimbledon.  His play has been shaky for over a month.  The traditional precision play of Davydenko went wonky.  He is finally getting close to where he should be, but he is still short of that.  Last year, he lost to Soderling at the US Open.  Soderling still gives Davydenko problems.  If he has a favorable draw, he might be able to go deep.  He is now just behind Soderling, so this means they two wouldn’t meet until the semifinals (seeds 5-8 can’t meet one another until the semifinals, and requires upsetting seeds 1-4 to reach there).

Still, Davydenko isn’t quite at his best form, but it may be good enough to make it through reasonably deep.

Tomas Berdych

Despite Berdych’s effort power style, he’s been more vulnerable to upsets than almost any other top 10 player.  Even so, he’s a very dangerous player.  Berdych peaked at the French and Wimbledon playing superlative tennis for two consecutive Slams.  He very nearly beat Roger Federer a third time.  He lost to Malisse in DC, to Federer in Toronto, and to Baghdatis in Cincy.  Last year, he lost to Fernando Gonzalez, who had a great 2009, but a dismal 2010.

Hard to say where his form is.  It seems, not as good as it was two months ago.  Still, not that bad.

Fernando Verdasco

Verdasco had a great clay season, but he played so many clay events that he seems to have overplayed by the French.  He lost to Almagro.  He might have won had he not played so much.  He then lost to Fognini in the first round of Wimbledon, then to Robredo at Bastad on clay in the quarterfinals, then to Baghdatis in the quarters of DC, and to Chardy in Toronto and to Fish in Cincy.  Verdasco should get through some of the early rounds at the Open since there are weaker players in the early rounds, but he’s certainly not entering the Open with a lot of good wins.

Andy Roddick

Andy finally reported he had a mild bout of mono.  He lost early in DC to Gilles Simon, a good player, but still not back to his 2008 form.  He took off a week during Toronto to train and then reached the semifinals of Cincy.  He’s probably not 100% entering the Open, but he has to feel good that he’s starting to play better again.  I think the key for Roddick is to avoid other Americans, who he seems to be vulnerable to.

Outside the Top Ten

The three hot players outside the top 10 are Marcos Baghdatis who reached the finals of DC and the semifinals of Cincy, David Nalbandian who won DC and reached the quarters of Toronto, and Mardy Fish who reached the finals of Cincy in addition to winning Newport and Atlanta.  Sam Querrey would be the only other guy that seems to be playing well, but again, underperformed in Toronto and Cincy.  Jeremy Chardy played well in Toronto.

It’s unclear whether Isner can play the US Open or how far he can go, otherwise, he might be expected to go a few rounds.  Ernests Gulbis is also a name people point to, a dangerous player that has still not been able to break through.  He’s kind of the Tomas Berdych from a few years ago.