Wimby Day 9: Murray beats Tsonga in 4 sets (QF)

For a while, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was taking a page out of the book to beat Andy Murray.  Play aggressive off the forehand and pressure Nadal.  The two stayed on serve throughout the first set.  In the first set tiebreak, Murray made a few errors, and Tsonga was able to 7 points to 5.  Murray seemed upset at being unable to play solid tennis against Tsonga.

In the second set, Murray got an early break to lead 3-0, but was broken back.  They went to a tiebreak which was very tight until Tsonga, on serve, came to net, and let a ball he could have hit go.  It landed on the baseline and gave Murray a mini-break and he got another one and eventually secured the second set tiebreak 7 points to 5.

In the third set, Murray seemed to get on top of his game and earned two breaks to take the set, 6-2.  By the fourth set, Tsonga looked like his finger or wrist were bothering him.  He began to serve and volley on almost every first serve.  He also got broken twice.  He managed to hold again to 5-2, but Murray came back and took the final game, 6-2, with a bolo punch of a forehand.

Murray reaches the semifinals for the second year in a row, and faces Nadal for the first time (at Wimbledon) since 2008.

Wimby Day 9: Nadal beats Soderling to reach semis (QF)

Perhaps the warning signs were there.  Robin Soderling was on his way to a pretty easy win over David Ferrer when a bad call upset Soderling and he spent the rest of the match trying to regain control of a situation that went out of control.  Soderling needed five sets to beat Ferrer.

The day started off well enough.  Soderling held, then immediately broke Nadal, then broke him again. Eventually, up 4-0, he was broken and won the set, 6-3.  That break seemed to indicate that Nadal was back.

In the second set, Soderling challenged a call on an “out” ball and it was called in.  The umpire, Pascal Maria, claimed Nadal would not have gotten the ball, but Nadal said he hit the ball, so they should play the point again.  This anger seemed to light a fire under Nadal, and he took the second set, 6-3.  He got another break early in the third set.  When he was ready to serve for the set, Soderling called for a trainer to replace the bandages on his feet.

Nadal had been criticized in his match against Petzschner for calling a trainer and upsetting Petzschner’s rhythm.  Nadal bristled at the thought saying that he doesn’t call a trainer unless he’s hurt.  With the shoe on the other foot, Nadal double-faulted twice and eventually lost serve.  Each player held serve to the tiebreak.  Soderling got behind a mini-break early and Nadal never lost serve, taking the third set, 7-4.  Finally, Nadal ran away with the fourth set, 6-1.

In this match, after the first set, Soderling never looked that comfortable.  Nadal wasn’t playing so well himself, but he stayed aggressive and kept more balls in play.  Soderling looked to be a level beneath how he played at the French, closer to the way he played against David Ferrer, and that’s not enough to beat Nadal.

Nadal will face the winner of Murray-Tsonga.  Tsonga took the first set in a tiebreak and Murray took the second in a tiebreak despite having an early break in the second set (Tsonga broke back).  Murray is now up double-break in the third set as Tsonga’s game seems to be getting a bit more error-prone.

Berdych will face Djokovic in the other semifinal.

Wimby Day 9: Federer upset by Berdych (QF)

Well, what can you say?  Berdych is always a dangerous player, and he proved it again.  Federer looked like he was hitting his stride especially with easy wins over Clement and Melzer.  To be fair, these two players are actually older than Federer, and neither hit with the pace of Berdych.

Federer tried to keep his first serve percentage up and that worked somewhat.  Like Federer’s previous opponents, Berdych tried to attack Federer’s second serve and found some success in doing that.  Meanwhile, Federer struggled to break Berdych.  Berdych did get broken early in the second set, and Federer used that one break to take the set.

In the third set, Berdych had a break early, then added a second break, and again, Federer struggled with no opportunities to break.

By the fourth set, Federer was starting to see the Berdych serve better.  He had a 0-40 game when Berdych double-faulted twice, but Berdych came back from that.  Indeed, Federer appeared to have many chances in the fourth set.  At 4-all, Federer was down break points but looked like he might save it, and yet Berdych kept getting the ball back and eventually secured the break.  In the 5-4 game, Federer saved a match point, but Berdych again played solid as Federer struggled some with Berdych’s shots.

Federer, as usual when he loses, was not in control of his shots as much as he wanted to be.  He was forced to play more shots up the middle and be more conservative rather than go for the lines as he wanted to.  This gave Berdych chances to take the offense.  Federer also chose to slice nearly all his backhand returns, something he did to great effect against Andy Murray at the Australian Open.  But where Murray did not attack the slice much, Berdych was able to do so.  Berdych also played some great defense.  Late in the fourth set, Federer came into net off a strong forehand up the line.  Berdych tossed up a lob and force Fed back to the baseline who had to reset the point, one which Berdych eventually won.

Final score: Berdych wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.

And the magical ride of Yen-Hsun Lu came to a quick end as Djokovic totally outclassed Lu, returning well, asserting himself off the ground: 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.

Can Isner Make It to the Top?

John Isner’s visibility to the sports world at large shot up on June 23, when an otherwise insignificant match was being played on an outer court, away from the hubbub of the show courts.  7 hours later, he and Nicolas Mahut had gone into history, playing the longest match ever, and even then, it wasn’t concluded.  Another day and another hour and some change later, and Isner was on the court rolling, having finally broken serve.

This victory came at a price.  By the time he was done, he was fatigued, his neck hurt, his feet were raw, and he had nothing to give in his second round match, a straight set drubbing by the Dutch player, Thiemo de Bakker.

Isner’s fame grew, and he headed home.  He was on the David Letterman show.  He was on a morning show.  He threw out a pitch at a Yankees game.  He was soaking up the fame.

True tennis fans got an inkling of his talent when, given a wildcard to the Washington DC Legg Mason Classic in 2007, Isner went to the finals and gave Andy Roddick a tough match, one he ultimately lost, 6-4, 7-6.  Isner would have a pretty quiet two years after that, before resurging again in the summer of 2009 when he would beat Andy Roddick at the 3rd round of the US Open before falling to Fernando Verdasco in the fourth round.

Isner would win his first title in Adelaide, and reach the finals of Memphis and Belgrade, losing both times to his doubles partner, Sam Querrey.

After Isner returned back to the US, he told reporters that he didn’t want to be known as “that guy”, the guy who played in the longest match ever.  Although he had no pro aspirations early on in college, and had low aspirations once he graduated (hoping to be a top 100 player), he’s had to revise his goals in light of his current top 20 rankings.  Now, he believes he can be a top 10 player, and perhaps even a Slam winner.

Is this possible?

One role model is Ivo Karlovic, who at 6’10″, is an inch taller than Isner.   Karlovic lacked the kind of tennis instruction many of his contemporaries received from a very young age.  So he worked on something he could do by himself: his serve.  His serve became perhaps the most effective serve on the tour.  Despite having a pretty big forehand, two things hampered Karlovic’s success.  First, he lacked a world class backhand.  To compensate, he learned to approach the net and volley.  Second, he lacked much quickness.  This meant if a returner could get a ball into play, and they had good groundstrokes, they could beat him by trying to move him around.

Isner has some advantages over Karlovic.  Most notably, Isner moves better than Karlovic.  His backhand is also better than Karlovic’s.  However, neither is saying a great deal.  Karlovic spent a long time trying to build his game to respectable pro levels, but he’s never gone particularly deep at a Slam.  Karlovic played better at the age of 30 than he did at the age of 25.

Indeed, Isner, at the age of 25, is older than most pros that make it into the top 20.  Players like Murray, Djokovic, and Nadal broke through when they were closer to 18.  Isner wasn’t even ready to play pro tennis at 18, especially since he had to deal with a late growth spurt which took him time to adjust.

The better role model for John Isner is Juan Martin del Potro, although his game currently resembles Sam Querrey more than del Potro.  del Potro is 6’6″ like Sam Querrey, but possesses the biggest forehand in tennis.  When del Potro loads up, he gets players like Nadal and Federer struggling to reach the balls.  Neither Isner nor Querrey hit a forehand as big, nor as consistently.  The other player that is roughly like del Potro is Robin Soderling, who can also hit big on both sides, and do so consistently.

Isner has learned to hit a big forehand off shots up the middle.  These are the same kinds of shots that Querrey is also good at hitting.  Isner’s backhand, however, still needs more work, if he is to play closer to the del Potro style.

Pretty much every other player in the top 10, outside of del Potro, and to a lesser extent, Robin Soderling, and maybe even Andy Roddick, moves quick.  Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, Davydenko, Tsonga, Verdasco–these guys are all pretty quick on the court.  This is important because it helps them chase down balls that otherwise might be winners.

One reason the Isner-Mahut match lasted as long as it did was because Isner couldn’t play even when he got into rallies on Mahut’s serve.  Mahut would dominate the rallies, and hit winners.  This was more the case on the third day of their play.  Indeed, one reason Isner got a chance to win was because Mahut altered his strategy, and came to net a lot more, giving Isner chances to pass.  Mahut may have felt his abs were straining him and longer points from the baseline were not going to work long-term.

Isner may also have to worry about one more thing.  At 250 lbs, he’s easily the heaviest guy on tour.  Sure, his height contributes to that, and perhaps having more muscle might help avoid injuries, like basketball players.  It may be that Ivo Karlovic, who is 20 lbs lighter, has a big frame that puts too much stress on his feet.  Karlovic has had a foot injury that’s kept him off the tour for a few months now and doesn’t seem to be healing well.

Isner knows that there are some limitations to the style he can play.  He’s not Andy Murray, so he can’t just rely on defense to win shots and chase down whatever an opponent gives him.  Nor is he Davydenko, who takes balls off the rise, and hits them for winners off either wing.  His best chance is to learn how to return serve much better, and that might be tough.  He’s learned to keep rallies pretty short, and look for the short ball that he can punish.  He needs a bit more agility too if he hopes to get in the top 10.

The good news, I suppose, is that taller players are making more of an impact.  Players like Cilic, Querrey, del Potro, Tomas Berdych, and even Robin Soderling show tall players can play well, and perhaps move well enough to win.  Right now, the quickest tall player is probably Andy Murray at 6’3″.  Even though Soderling is only an inch taller, he doesn’t move nearly as well, but he compensates with a much harder hitting style.  Plus Soderling is also pretty consistent hitting that hard, as is del Potro.  Sometimes, looking at players like Querrey, you feel their strokes are good, but not intimidating, except for their quick strike shot.

Until Isner can show improvements in speed, or power and consistency, I think reaching the top 10 may take more work than he thinks.  I think there will be a glass ceiling of sorts because of these limitations that will make him a solid top 20 player, but struggle to get into the top 10. But already, he’s shown to himself and others that he can exceed expectations, so it will be interesting to see if that happens.

The Amazing World of Yen-Hsun Lu

Wimbledon Monday, in which all the men and women play their fourth round matches, is perhaps the most sought-after ticket short of the men’s championships itself.  While fourth round matches generally favor the higher seed, with eight matches being played, there is usually an upset.  Indeed, form almost held, but there was one upset.  Andy Roddick was eliminated by unheralded Yen-Hsun Lu.

It’s on occasions like this that you learn something about a player you’ve hardly known. It’s used to be quite exceptional to find a player from a country that isn’t known for producing tennis players, but tennis has become a much more international sport than it once was.

Fifty years ago, the number of countries with players playing world-class tennis was exceedingly tiny.  If you just pick the countries that host the Slams–the United States, France, Australia, and the UK–you’d probably account for over 80% of men’s finalists at Wimbledon prior to 1960.  Add the following countries–Germany, New Zealand, Czechoslovakia/Czech Republic, Egypt, Denmark, Spain, Romania, Russia, Sweden–you would pretty much cover the nationality of every finalist up to 1991.

People often proclaim players like Rod Laver as the greatest of all time, with his two Grand Slams.  But, at the time Laver did this, there were a handful of countries with really good players, which was pretty much Australia and the United States, and Australia had a bigger group of better players.  One could imagine if there were rankings, the Australians might be half of the top 10.  You simply had to be the best among a group of players you practiced with all the time.

Laver had two advantages few other players had.  As an amateur, he was part of Harry Hopman’s system which emphasized practices that were tougher than actual matches, and who preached fitness.  This was modern tennis training when the rest of the world knew little of how to train for tennis, other than hitting balls.  As a pro, Laver was one of a handful of players that went around barnstorming with the best pros in the business.  This was not a group of hundreds of players, but perhaps 10-15 players.  While they went around playing matches like a rock band goes to venues at rock arenas, they continually honed their game, while the rest…well, there was no rest.  There were no other professionals.  Today, hundreds of players play dozens of tournaments each year, and so the pool of potential greatness is magnified.

Things are different today.  Players come from countries that didn’t exists 25 years ago.  Serbia, Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Kazkhstan are all producing world-class players.  Before Roger Federer, Switzerland had produced only a smattering of top pros, and no one contending for number 1.  Names like Jacob Hlasek and Marc Rosset were the Swiss great.  They lacked the Spanish or French federations that cranked out pros left and right.  Yet, out of that system, they produced Roger Federer.  Bjorn Borg was a loner, not part of the system that eventually developed Wilander, Edberg, Nystrom and the Swedish horde (alas, the Swedes are pretty much Robin Soderling now).

With the popularity of tennis in the world, players now come from pretty much anywhere, and their backgrounds aren’t necessarily middle to upper class families.

Witness one Yen-Hsun Lu.  Lu is listed as being from Chinese Taipei.  This is one of those nice political euphemisms that show the complex relationship between China and Taiwan.  In the movie “Hero”, Jet Li plays a “superhero” warrior of sorts that is sent to assassinate the emperor, yet, he is compelled to find out what kind of emperor he is.  The film portrays the emperor as wise beyond his cruelty.  He does what he can to unify all of China (based loosely on the emperor who built the Great Wall).  This notion of “one land” resonates strongly with the Chinese.

In the 1940s, the Nationalists rules China, but there was dissatisfaction in China and many chose to join the Communists who eventually ran the Nationalists out of China, many who fled to Taiwan.  At the time, both sides, the Communists and the Nationalists believed they were legitimate government of China, and that suited both sides.  When Nixon was president, he agreed the official “China” was mainland China and Taiwan became relegated to, well, not exactly a country, but not exactly one either.

There are some, in Taiwan, who believe Taiwan should be an independent country which causes mainland China some consternation.  Mainland China creates a convenient falsehood that Taiwan is a renegade colony that will once come back into the fold, even though the two “countries” operate pretty much independently of each other.  Such is politics.  This isn’t so unusual.  Greek and Turkey contest Cyprus.  India and Pakistan contest Kashmir.

So when Li Na talks about China producing a top 50 male in the next 5 years, she would readily have to admit that she means mainland China even if Taiwan will probably produce a top 50 male in Yen-Hsun Lu when Wimbledon concludes.  He’s just not a product of the mainland Chinese system (obviously).  The name “Chinese Taipei” is also a compromise that allows Taiwan to compete in Olympic events without being labeled as Taiwan which is a kind of political faux-pas (Taipei is the capital of Taiwan).

Unlike Li Na, Lu was not really a product of an active tennis federation, at least, not quite the same level as China.  Lu’s beginning were particularly unusual.  If you’ve seen the small film, Napoleon Dynamite, the main character, Napoleon, gets a job at a chicken farm.  The teens are given a pitcher of what seems to be raw eggs and watch the old man drink it was a refreshment.  Such details are so odd and yet so accurate that you feel the director must have once had this job.

Lu’s father was a chicken farmer who sold live chickens and as a youth, Lu had to help out, catching chickens, waking up at dawn.  Lu realized, early on, that this life was not for him.  For one, the smell.  Lu eventually focused his attention to tennis.  Although his father was not a “tennis father”, knowing much more about farm life than hitting a ball, he was supportive of his son’s success.

Unfortunately, for Lu, his father passed away in 2000, prior to Lu joining the tour. Lu had hoped his father was watching him, and he dedicated his win to his father.

Lu’s results show the kind of international sport that tennis is.  He sought advice on his volley from Mark Woodforde last year.  He’s been training with an Argentine fitness coach, which he claims has helped his serve (stronger leg pushoff, presumably).  In this respect, he’s not far from players like Li Na who have been permitted by the Chinese federation to train how she chooses (the men, not yet ranked very high, do not have this luxury).

In his post-match thoughts, Lu showed a modestly that is almost typically Chinese, reverence for those who are the stars, but also realizing that you fight anyway.  When Roddick came back, improbably, to win the fourth set, Lu entertained thoughts that maybe it wasn’t his day.  Roddick was the better player, after all.  Lu hadn’t broken Roddick all day, but then, Roddick had barely broken him all day, either.  Lu just told himself to fight and maybe good things would happen.  And so when Andy Roddick lost control of his groundstrokes, hitting them long, and gave Lu an opening, Lu took the opportunity he had, and passed the 3-time finalist down-the-line, and got himself into the quarterfinals, as the only upset of the day.

So while Lu will go into his quarterfinal a decided underdog to Novak Djokovic (he’d be a decided underdog with pretty much all the remaining quaterfinalists), he’ll go out and fight.

Previewing Wimbledon Quarterfinals

Now that Super Monday is over, let’s look at the upcoming quarterfinals.

Federer vs. Berdych

This is a tough one to call.  Federer doesn’t always need great opponents to play great.  For example, playing Clement was a great way for him to hit a lot of balls without a lot of fear that he would lose.  Melzer doesn’t hit particularly hard, but he does try to be aggressive, and again, that match turned out to be good for Roger to hit with confidence and apparently not feel too bad.

Berdych is going through the draw relatively comfortably.  He had a much easier time at the French.  At Wimbledon, he’s dropped a few sets.  He was pushed to 5 sets with Istomin and Brands almost took a 2 sets to 1 lead against Berdych before he broke twice to take the third set and then wrap it in four sets.

Berdych was one of those guys that people thought might make it big.  He’s been on the tour for a while.  One trivia question is who Roger Federer lost at the 2004 Olympics to, and that would be Berdych, who was 18 at the time and ranked about 74.

Federer has an 8-2 record over Berdych, but Berdych did beat him the last time they met, back in Miami.  Federer had a match point but failed to close it out.  I think Federer is going to feel that if he gets on top of Berdych early, things will go fine.  Berdych is dangerous because he’s quick and he hits hard.  This is the second straight Slam that Berdych has gone deep.  And he once gave trouble to Federer at the 2009 Australian Open, pushing him to 5 sets.

Federer knows how to play Berdych, and they played recently.  I don’t think Berdych has done anything particularly new to his game other than start to play more consistently.

I’d still favor Federer in 4 sets, and he could even win in straights.  He’s feeling pretty confident now, so it’s a matter of keeping that up.

As far as form goes, Federer is in pretty good shape, but has yet to play a really good top player.  He’s played some pretty good nobodies that probably got Federer at a good time.

Djokovic vs. Lu

Although Lu has played Roddick a fair number of times, Lu has never played Djokovic.  Lu surprised Roddick with his serve, which he hit harder than usual.  Roddick claimed that Lu did better at Wimbledon because he likes to hit balls waist height and Roddick has having trouble directing balls higher up.  Indeed, Lu was often getting the better of rallies against Roddick.  Normally, you see Roddick engaged in fairly long rallies on hard courts and he tends to win those.  These rallies were much shorter than that.  Roddick complained that he was playing awful and having a hard time keeping the ball in play.

Djokovic, by contrast, is a more varied groundstroker.  He moves the ball around very well.  He can hit down the line on both sides, and he probes around for weaknesses.  I’m guessing, with the five setter that Lu just went through, and the excitement of pulling his biggest upset since beating Murray at the 2008 Olympics, he’s going to be less than ready for Djokovic.

Djokovic was having himself a pretty good match against Hewitt.  He had played two close sets, and won it late in both sets.  But then, he ran into an ailment–a stomach issue, he claimed–and that caused him to play poorly for about a set where he nearly got broken 3 times in a row.  Hewitt was feeling good.  But then, when the medicine he took kicked in, Djokovic started off with a break.  He gave that break back, but they played even.  By 4-all, Hewitt, who looked like he’d hold comfortably, made quite a few errors, including a double fault to give the break to Djokovic, and Djokovic seized the opportunity to close in 4.

Lu’s best chance, I’d imagine, is hoping Djokovic isn’t feeling well.  Djokovic started off poorly in the first round, but each round he’s looked better and better.  Despite the hiccup against Hewitt, he beat a guy that many people picked to upset Djokovic, mostly because they felt Djokovic would choke it away (which he doesn’t really do–he just gets fatigued/ill).

I thought Roddick should have beaten Lu in straights.  Despite Lu’s tremendous performance, I think Djokovic’s skill off the ground and his return game will be too much for Lu.  Djokovic moves the ball around better and returns better than Roddick.  Djokovic ought to have a comfortable route to the semifinals.

Tsonga vs. Murray

Andy Murray came into Wimbledon without a lot of momentum.  It’s not that he was playing so poorly, but he seemed to be far from playing his best.  Perhaps the lowest moment occurred sometime during Miami and then Monte Carlo where he lost early in both tournaments.  A re-dedication to training helped him do all right on clay, still his weakest surface.  This training appears to have reaped some benefit on grass.

Murray appears to have spent a lot of his training efforts during the clay season trying to hit the ball harder and end the points sooner.  This is something that he used to do much less of, but as players learn how to play Murray (being more aggressive), Murray has had to counter.

Murray had a pretty easy opening two rounds.  Honestly, even his third round match against Gilles Simon could have been tougher had Simon been fully healthy instead of returning from injury.  Even so, Murray seemed to build confidence from beating these players in straight sets.  Murray’s first challenge was expected to be Sam Querrey, and Querrey did pose problems for Murray.

Murray looked as if he’d win the first set handily, but found himself broken by Querrey as he served for the set, then he fell 0-40 behind on his own serve, but scrapped to win this game.  You know Murray is playing well when he gets into break point situations and manages to get himself out.  Indeed, Querrey apparently had break opportunities right out of the gate, but again held.  Sure, it’s bad that Murray gets himself into these situations, but it shows that he’s starting to play good tennis again.

Tsonga has started to become a guy that progresses deep into tournaments, well, at least to quarterfinals and such.  Tsonga hasn’t had the smoothest road so far.  He needed four sets to beat Kendrick in the opening round, then Dolgopolov pushed him to 5 sets in the second round, then he had a comfortable win over Kamke, and beat countryman Benneteau in four sets, in a match he felt he didn’t play so well.

Murray has played Tsonga 3 times, and leads 2-1.  His most famous loss was in the first round of the 2008 Australian Open.  However, he beat Tsonga in Montreal last year.  That was a close match, but went in straight sets.

Murray has generally had trouble facing big hitters including Verdasco, del Potro, and Gonzalez.  Although Tsonga is no slouch when it comes to hitting, he’s not quite a pure power hitter.  This means that Murray should have plenty of chances to hang in there.  Murray would be better served if his first serve percentages were higher.  Against Querrey, he put in only 45% of first serves.  In previous rounds, he had been serving closer to 60%, which is where he should be, but Murray is more of a 50% first server.

I think Murray should be favored to win this match, given the form he’s played so far, but Tsonga is talented, so I’d expect it to be close.

Nadal vs. Soderling

When the draw came out, this looked to be the trickiest match Nadal would face, short of facing, say, Federer in the finals.  Several things have pushed the predictions both ways.  When Nadal faced his second five-setter playing Philipp Petzschner in the third round and complained about various ailments, it seemed, for sure, that Soderling with his steady power, would be able to do what neither Petzschner nor Haase could do: beat Nadal.

Soderling last played Nadal at Wimbledon in 2007 in a match that went 5 sets.  Soderling made fun of Nadal for his pants tugging and the ball bouncing.  At least, Nadal has fixed up one of his habits (ball bouncing).

Soderling’s match against Ferrer was expected to be somewhat tough, but it looked like he should have won in straight sets.  Soderling seemed to be mentally in and out the entire match, unable to keep the balls in play, and letting Ferrer have opportunities.  He was continuously trying to regrip his racquet during changeovers.  Like Djokovic, he complained of some stomach ailment, so perhaps, like Djokovic, it was bother him some.

I suspect this was just a temporary problem, and he’ll work to get focused again.  If Soderling can play like he did at the French–and I know that was a losing effort–he can beat Nadal.  Soderling was hitting the ball very hard against Nadal, but Nadal was able to spin the balls up high and give himself time to recover.  Soderling was forced to hit 4, 5, 6 shots as hard as he could and still sometimes not win the point.  On grass, I believe he’d just have to hit 1 or 2 such hard shots, and the point would be over.

Nadal hasn’t looked particularly sharp, but he does have a way of making it through a draw.  He faced Mathieu today and won rather easily.  To beat Nadal means you need to play aggressive tennis, and sometimes lower ranked players try for too big a shot and miss too often.  Soderling, on the other hand, just has to play his game and hit the ball cleanly.  He already hits with a lot of pace.

His match against Ferrer was worrisome because he wasn’t hitting that well, but he did finally gather himself at the end and find a way to beat Ferrer.

So this is the only one I’d call an upset on.  If Lu upsets Djokovic, it’s probably going to be for health-related reasons on Djokovic’s part.  Berdych has a shot to upset Federer, but I’d say his chances don’t look so good right this moment.  He certainly has the talent to do it.  Finally, Tsonga certainly has a shot at beating Murray.

Wimby Day 7: Lu Upsets Roddick in 5 (4R)

This is Yen-Hsun’s resume heading into Wimbledon.  First round loss in Chennai.  First round loss in the Australian Open.  Reached the quarterfinals of Johannesburg (losing to Monfils).  First round loss in San Jose.  Second round loss in Memphis (to Andy Roddick).  Second round loss to Indian Wells (to Andy Roddick).  Second round loss in Miami.  First round loss at the French Open.  First round loss in Queen’s (to Nicolas Mahut).  Second round loss at Eastbourne.

In 6 trips to Wimbledon, he’s only ever reached the second round twice.  The last 4 years, he’s exited in the first round.

Meanwhile, Andy Roddick must have felt this match was deja vu all over again.  Except instead of Federer on the other side of the court, it was 82nd ranked, Yen-Hsun Lu.  Throughout the entire match, Roddick had not lost serve.  He broke Lu’s serve once, and they each held serve throughout the last four sets.

Lu took control of the second set tiebreak and won it 7 points to 3.  The third set tiebreak look to be headed Roddick’s way, but again Lu took control and won it 7 points to 4.  The fourth set tiebreak ultimately went Roddick’s way, and it seemed like Roddick might have a good shot in the fifth set because he had yet to be broken.

But the resilient Lu kept holding serves.  Roddick had three chances to break Lu and secure the match, but converted none.  Lu didn’t get his first break opportunity in the set until he was up 8-7, 30-40 on Roddick’s serve.  Roddick must have seemed uncertain whether he could win a baseline rally and chose to come to net and put the pressure on Lu’s shoulder to pass.  Lu hit one passing shot that elicited a weakish volley from Roddick.  Lu then hit the shot up the line with his forehand, and engineered his first and only break in the match.

The last man from Asia to reach the quarterfinals of any Slam was Shuzo Matsuoka of Japan who reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon in 1995.  (Technically, Michael Chang is Asian-American–he reached the finals of the Australian Open in 1996).

Roddick didn’t exactly have his best game.  He struggled returning Lu’s serve, and did not always do that well in baseline exchanges especially on Lu’s serve.  He tried a few strategies including coming to net, trying to hit harder, and tried to find something that worked, but Lu kept hanging in there, and eventually got the win.

So, the biggest upset at Wimbledon so far goes to Lu, who beat the fifth seed, Andy Roddick.  He’ll face Novak Djokovic next, which will perhaps make Djokovic happy, but Lu’s had a good run so far, so maybe Djokovic needs to worry!

Nadal looks en route to an easy 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 win over Paul-Henri Mathieu.  He would face Robin Soderling next.

Wimby Day 7: Soderling over Ferrer in 5! (4R)

Sometimes, a match comes down to nerves.  Soderling was cruising in this match.  Almost right out of the gate, Ferrer seemed despondent, thinking Soderling might overpower him.  Now, Ferrer probably wasn’t thinking that.  Ferrer is one of the better competitors on tour.  Despite his diminutive size, he is quick and chases down lots of balls.

Soderling won the first set easily, 6-2, and was up a break in the second.  Then, after a rally where a ball was overruled, Soderling got upset, and eventually gave the break back.  From then on, his game seemed up and down, and he gave a second break, and the second set, 7-5, to Ferrer.  In the third set, Soderling seemed to turn it around and win handily, 6-2.

But the fourth set, Soderling got down a break, and when he was down break points, he didn’t seem eager to fight his way out of it, and lost the fourth set, 6-3, on his serve.  This meant David Ferrer would open the fifth set.

Credit Soderling for mentally hanging in there.  This was a perfect match for Soderling to fold.  Soderling, overall, should have more power that Ferrer can handle, and if he’s playing his normal game, Ferrer is hard-pressed to beat him.  Yet, the two were on serve, with Ferrer threatening to take the match, especially at 5-4, 0-30 on Soderling’s serve.  Soderling pulled himself out of that game, to get to 5-all.

Soderling then pulled out a new racquet, and that seemed to give him confidence.  He played aggressive on Ferrer’s serve, getting him down 0-40 and eventually securing the break.  Soderling then went up 40-15 on his own serve, but gave up the next point in a rally, and double-faulted to deuce.  Soderling would then play two more good points and win the match.

This was a match that probably should have concluded more quickly, but Soderling was struggling with his own game.  Eventually, he held it together enough to secure the match.

Meanwhile, Andy Roddick found himself in yet another tiebreak against Yen-Hsun Lu who had taken sets 2 and 3 and was looking for the upset in set 4.  They are now in a fifth set.  Roddick hadn’t broken Lu since the first set, and Lu hasn’t broken Roddick at all.  Lu had some looks at breaking Roddick, but it didn’t happen.  The fifth set is played without a tiebreak.  So that might favor Roddick, but it’s been a much tighter match than expected.

Finally, Rafael Nadal is up a set, 6-4, over Paul-Henri Mathieu.  Mathieu had break points to get a 2-0 lead, but it didn’t happen, and then he got broken soon after.  They are in the second set, early on.

Meanwhile, Andy Murray beat Sam Querrey in straight sets: 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.  Querrey will probably look at the match with missed opportunities.  Up next for Murray is Tsonga.  Tsonga beat Murray in the first round of the Australian Open in 2008, and took that win to the finals where he lost to Djokovic.

Federer will play Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals.  Djokovic is awaiting the Lu-Roddick winner.  Soderling is awaiting the winner of Nadal-Mathieu.

Wimby Day 7: Djokovic beats Hewitt in 4 sets (4R)

For a while, this looked like a straight set match for Djokovic.  Djokovic broke to take the first set, 7-5, then again, to take the second, 6-4.  Then, it seemed like Djokovic was going to suffer from health issues, a problem that knocked him out of the Australian Open, and partly explained why he lost to Melzer at the French.

Djokovic said, in a post-match interview, that he had had an upset stomach and that was distracting him.  He got medical attention, but dropped the third set, 6-3, with two breaks of serve (and nearly a third).  However, Djokovic got out to an early break and nearly had a second break, when Hewitt held, then broke back.  Both players were steadily holding serve.  Then, at 4-all, Hewitt hit a big inside out forehand to get up 15-0, then a big serve to get to 30-0.  Then a forehand hit long early in a rally, then a second forehand hit long, then an inside out backhand hit wide, and then a double fault to give the break to Djokovic.

Djokovic then hit a big serve, and Hewitt hit short second serve in the net, then another big unreturned serve, and finally a longish rally that ended with a big swooping forehand to seal the match.  So, it looked like Djokovic might fade due to health issues, managed to recover, and it was Hewitt that basically choked it at the end.

Djokovic will face the winner of Lu-Roddick.

Speaking of which, I predicted this to be a gimme match for Roddick, and it’s been anything but.  Although Lu has yet to break Roddick, he’s done a good job holding his own serve.  Roddick won the first set with a single break of serve, but Lu got the second set into a tiebreak and got to an early lead and eventually won the second set in a tiebreak.  Roddick looked to have a decent lead in the third set tiebreak, but gave that up, and Lu took that set in a tiebreak too.  While Lu doesn’t have a particularly big game, playing somewhat like, say, Gilles Simon, Roddick has been having some issues.  Roddick, it appears, has resorted to hitting harder, but making more errors in the process.

Soderling is also finding himself in a tussle.  After taking the third set, 6-2, he’s down a break in the fourth set against David Ferrer.  Meanwhile, Murray, who found himself serving for the match, then getting broken, then down break points at 5-all, managed to hold, then break Querrey in the next game to take the first set, 7-5.  He’s up a break in the second set, 4-2.

Wimby Day 7: Tsonga and Berdych move on to last 8 (4R)

On this, the most match-laden day of any Slam, all fourth round matches are played.  Federer was up early and won his match quickly over Jurgen Melzer.

There were eight men’s matches scheduled for today.  Two more are completed not including Federer’s win.

Tsonga played countryman Benneteau and got off to a quick start winning the first set, 6-1.  The second set was closer, won only by one break, 6-4.  Benneteau then earned a set, 6-3, before Tsonga clamped down in the fourth, 6-1.  I thought this match might be close but ultimately go to Tsonga since Tsonga plays better in big match situations.  Benneteau has had several wins against Tsonga, but in smaller events.  This win was somewhat easier than expected, with two 6-1 sets.

Daniel Brands, the unheralded German, looked like he might make Tomas Berdych work.  He took the first set, 6-4, then lost the second set in a tiebreak, 7 points to 1.  In the third set, Brands had a break and was serving for the set, but got broken, and then broken again, to lose 7-5.  Berdych broke early in the fourth set, but Brands had some chances to break back, but ultimately, did not do so, and lost the set and match, 6-3.

Djokovic went up two sets to none against Lleyton Hewitt, when once again, he was suffering from health issues.  A doctor gave him some medication.  Djokovic would then lose his serve to Hewitt, then go down 0-40 for a potential second break.  He managed to get out of that game with good serving and a few good rallies.  However, Djokovic would again go down 0-40, and this time, at 30-40, he lost serve, and the third set, 6-3.

Djokovic broke early in the fourth set for a 2-0 lead and was up 15-40 on Hewitt’s serve when Hewitt hit a few big serves and got himself out of that game.

Soderling started off pretty strong when Ferrer seemed a bit resigned that Soderling was going to overpower him.  Soderling took the first set, 6-2, then got up a break in the second set.  However, a bad call left Soderling upset, and Ferrer broke back and then got broken again, 7-5, to lose his first set of the championships.  Soderling is now up 4-1 (one break) in the third set.

Andy Roddick has had a tougher time with Yen-Hsun Lu than expected.  Roddick took the first set, 6-4.  The two played until a tiebreak in the second set, and Lu won quite a few points off the Roddick serve, and took the tiebreak, 7 points to 3.  They are on serve 3-all in the third set.

Andy Murray was leading a break and was serving for the set when Querrey fought and got a break back.  Murray is now down 0-40, triple break point, at 5-all.  His first serve percentage is only at 40%.