Rome QF Results

So much for predictions (I predicted Djokovic, Ferrer, Lopez, and Nadal–only 2 of 4 correct).  Verdasco continued his mastery over Djokovic although Djokovic did make a match of it.  Verdasco wins: 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-4.

David Ferrer shows that his defeat of Andy Murray was not simply a slumping Murray (Murray’s main problems were first serve percentage and applying pressure on returns–his groundies were in pretty good shape, but just not enough to handle Ferrer).  Playing against Tsonga for the first time, the speedy Spaniard beat Tsonga, 6-4, 6-1.

Rafael Nadal had a bit of a challenge against Stanislas Wawrinka who used a big serve and big shots to stay even early on, but Nadal broke late to 6-4, then rolled in the 2nd set, 6-1.  Nadal is simply used to overwhelming his opponents with his heavy balls waiting for the weak ball and pouncing.  He can often pounce on shots that look rather neutral such as hitting a shot that goes down the line back up the line, or up the middle to a sharp angle either direction.

Nadal has also become very aware when his opponents are in trouble and come in for a sneak volley.  He did that to great success against Wawrinka.  When groundies keep your opponents back 10 feet behind the baseline, you just have to get that volley over the net to have a winner.

Gulbis continued his winning ways.  He won the first set against Lopez in a close tiebreak, 8-6 in the tiebreak, but then won the second set rather quickly, 6-1.

Gulbis has a (slim) chance to pull the rare double: beating Nadal and Federer in the same tournament, as he faces Nadal in the semis.   Meanwhile, the other two slots are Spaniards, with Ferrer meeting Verdasco again (they met last week in Barcelona where Ferrer fell to Verdasco).

And Fed?  He finally lost his doubles match.  Sam Querrey and John Isner beat Federer and Allegro.

Federer will head to Estoril with a weak field.  Monfils and Ljubicic are seeded 2 and 3.  The top ranked Spaniard is Albert Montanes, thus, no Nadal, Verdasco, Ferrer, Ferrero, etc.

This tournament has already brought out a few stories.  First, Nadal is back and playing great clay court tennis and becomes the favorite at Roland Garros.  Federer’s form is still iffy as is Murray’s.  Verdasco continues to be the second strongest player on clay (Ferrer might be 3) behind Rafa.  Djokovic continues to get better compared to his debacle in Indian Wells and Miami.  Finally, Gulbis might be finally fulfilling some of the talent people saw in him 2 years ago.

Gulbis will hope to serve big to control his serves and then use his groundies to keep Nadal confounded.  It seems unlikely he can do this, but Nadal has yet to face a really big server that can also play with him off the ground.  Gulbis is likely to drop shot a lot.

Verdasco beats Djokovic in 3 (Rome, QF)

It was only two weeks ago when Verdasco decimated Djokovic in the Monte Carlo semifinals, 6-2, 6-2.  Djokovic promised that he would acquit himself better this time around.  And so, Djokovic did, but the second hottest player on the clay circuit, Fernando Verdasco, still won, in a 3 hour plus match.

Verdasco has taken a page out of Nadal’s book.  Once known for hitting big shots at inopportune moments, Verdasco has now become more patient, willing to work the points out longer and play more defense before going for big shots.

Although Djokovic played better, it was Verdasco who had a break in the first set, but Djokovic managed to break back, then Verdasco broke again, and Djokovic broke back as well, to get into a tiebreak, one that Verdasco won 7-4.

The second set was quite different as Djokovic managed 3 breaks of serve to Verdasco’s 1.  Usually, when a player gets a two break lead, the other player chooses not to fight and take their chances in the next set, so there may have been some of that.

By the third set, Verdasco was again starting to play well in rallies.  He never faced a break point in the third set, while Djokovic felt pressure on many of his serves.  Although he staved off 6 break points, he was still broken early on, with Verdasco holding that one break lead to win the match in the 3rd, 6-4.

Final score: 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4.

Up next, the first meeting between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer.  Nadal plays Wawrinka after that, and finally, Gulbis takes on Lopez.   There is still a possibility for an all Spaniard semifinals.  Spaniards have been doing pretty well on the clay circuit this year.

Andy Murray loses to David Ferrer (Rome, 3rd round)

On paper, Andy Murray’s loss to David Ferrer looks like an upset.  In practice, perhaps not so much.  Ferrer is ranked 17th in the world, but has been ranked as high as number 4 in the world, as recently as 2 years ago.  Ferrer is, what’s known in the tennis parlance, as a clay court specialist.  Of the tournaments Ferrer has played so far, only 5 have been on anything besides clay.

Five seems like a lot, but they include Auckland (where he lost to Clement), the Australian Open (five set loss in 2nd round to Marcos Baghdatis), Johannesburg (semifinal loss to Stephane Robert), Indian Wells (James Blake, 2nd round loss), and Miami (4th round loss to Nadal).  Three of these tournaments were required.

In the meanwhile, he’s played Buenos Aires (lost to Ferrero in the finals), Acapulco (beat Ferrero in the finals), Monte Carlo (semifinal loss to Nadal) and Barcelona (semifinal loss to Verdasco).  When Ferrer plays on clay, other opponents’ strengths, such as their serve, are reduced, and Ferrer’s strength (movement and steady play) are amplified.

When you count total match wins on clay, Ferrer leads, primarily because he went to play clay during the lead up to Indian Wells and Miami, where players like Nadal chose to skip the tournaments (to recover).

Andy Murray has never been a great clay courter.  Indeed, until 2009, he struggled to get past the 3rd round of any clay tournament he’d been in.  Murray had some measure of success last year, reaching the semifinals of Monte Carlo, but he lost early in Rome (to Juan Monaco), and rebounded some to get to the quarters of Madrid (losing to del Potro).  Murray reached the quarters of the French Open, which was one of his better results in a Slam.  Indeed, if you were to bet which player would do the best among Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray at the French, few would have picked Murray (Nadal lost in the 4th round, and Djokovic in the 3rd round).

Ferrer’s the kind of guy that gives a player like Murray fits.  He’s quick, he hits back hard shots well, and so he makes you hit more shots.  Murray’s approach to the match appeared to be trying to hit harder than Ferrer, and mixing that up with slices.  At one point, Murray hit a series of slices on forehands and backhands, over and over again.   It goes to show that the pros can play weird styles and have done so in practice, but they rarely rear their head in practice.

It turns out Murray had broken a string, and with the tension loss, he had to resort to slicing just to keep the ball in play.  Most players quickly drop shot or come to net to end the point quickly.  Ferrer, for his part, did well to keep playing the ball showing that the top players can handle all sorts of weirdness when they play, even if they hardly ever see the style of play.

On the plus side, Murray was able apply some pace to the ball, and even save a number of break points.  On the other hand, Murray only had 3 opportunities to break and didn’t break on any of them.  Murray complained that he wasn’t serving well nor returning well.   Murray’s first serve percentage was a paltry 41%, while Ferrer kept his serve at 78%.  Had Murray kept his serve at a respectable 60%, he might have held serve more easily.  Murray has been trying to improve the pace of his first serve for a while now, but his results resemble more of the diminutive Michael Chang, who tried to do the same thing, but sacrificed first serve percentage for speed.  Was the trade worth it?

Murray’s performance here was much better than against Kohlschreiber.  He was in many of the rallies, but just couldn’t outsteady Ferrer.

Nadal continued to roll beating Victor Hanescu, 6-3, 6-2.  Hanescu had break chances but converted none while Nadal broke Hanescu three times.

In the quarterfinals, Ernests Gulbis will face Feliciano Lopez.  Gulbis looked tired from today’s match while Lopez didn’t have to play a point because Ljubicic retired after the warmups.  Lopez leads 1-0 in head-to-head.  They met on hardcourts last year in Stockholm, an easy win for Lopez.  Arguably, Gulbis is a far different player then as now.  Still, Gulbis’s training will be put to the test.  Gulbis had to play a long 3-setter to beat Volandri.  Lopez is still a tough clay courter with a big forehand and serve, basically Verdasco-lite.

Rafael Nadal will play Stanislas Wawrinka.  Wawrinka’s best results at a Masters 1000 are at Rome where he reached the finals 2 years ago against Djokovic (Nadal was upset by Juan Carlos Ferrero).  Wawrinka has been having another good tournament.  However, Nadal has never lost to Wawrinka and leads their head-to-head, 4-0.  Wawa’s best chances are generally on faster surfaces, but he’s played Rafa tough on clay, with a 6-4, 7-5 loss in Stuttgart in 2007.  Rafa has been playing solid tennis, not nearly as dominating as Monte Carlo, but not really struggling either.  Wawrinka had a solid win over Robin Soderling to get to this point, so one hopes he can keep the match entertaining.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga takes on David Ferrer.  The two have never met.  It’s difficult to predict who will win.  Tsonga hits harder, but Ferrer is quick.  Unlike Murray, Tsonga at least knows how to play on clay, and his flashiness might work.  Ferrer should still be favored somewhat given his clay court prowess.

Finally, in a replay of the Monte Carlo semifinals, Verdasco will play Djokovic once again in the quaterfinals.  Verdasco crushed Djokovic the last time they met, winning 2 and 2.  However, Djokovic had won their last 5 encounters prior to that.  Arguably, that was simply a bad match by Djokovic, who is prone to poor play.  Djokovic does seem to have improved his play quite a bit since getting on clay.  I expect Verdasco to be a bit fatigued (though he is in very good shape) and Djokovic to win this match.

Semifinal predictions: Lopez vs Nadal, Djokovic vs Ferrer.   This would be 3 Spaniards in 4.  I would like Gulbis to win to finally break through, but I wonder if his fitness is a liability.

They had some video that showed Nadal sitting in the audience during some match fiddling with his bandages.  Nadal’s hands look like a mess, but then so did Borg’s who taped his hands to avoid blisters.  I’m guessing Nadal puts up with a fair bit of pain/annoyance.

Gulbis wins a squeaker over Volandri (Rome 3rd round)

It’s been a while since Italians had a top male player.  Back in the golden age of pro tennis, in the mid 1970s, the Foro Italico, site of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, once called the Italian Open, was a raucous arena filled with rowdy Italians. Whistles could sometimes lead to throwing of coins. Such was Italian decorum in those days.

The Italian crowd still comes out to support their men, and today, they had a good reason to do so.  Filippo Volandri, ranked 152, was poised to create an upset of his own.  It’s unusual for a wildcard to win more than a round, so it was already a success that Volandri had reached the third round, beating Peter Luczak in the first round, then impressively beating Julien Benneteau, 6-2, 6-0 in the 2nd round.

Gulbis, if you recall, had decided to be a serious tennis player.  He hired Hernan Gumy, the guy credited with helping Safin reach the semis of Wimbledon a while back.  Gumy has helped Gulbis train seriously and full-time, which was quite a difference from a year ago where he would play aimless tennis, with many wondering how he could fritter his talent like that.  Gulbis’s first breakthrough was winning a tournament, a small one in Delray Beach earlier this year, over big serving Ivo Karlovic.

His second breakthrough was beating Roger Federer who, it seems, is making a habit of losing early.  For Roger, it’s almost always the same story.  He plays well for a set, then his game implodes some, his opponents gain confidence, and Fed struggles and finally loses.  Federer hasn’t had a  “good” loss lately,  a match the caliber of him playing Safin back in the Australian Open, all those years ago where both players played well.  There were hints that Gulbis might be able to hang with Federer.  He had taken Fed to 3 sets back in Qatar, prior to the Australian Open.

However, a big victory is often followed by elation and a quick loss in the next round.  Many remember Federer beating Sampras at Wimbledon in 2001.  Few recall he lost in the next round to Tim Henman.  It makes it all the more impressive that a player like Robin Soderling beat Nadal, then beat Davydenko, and then beat Gonzalez, when Gonzalez had breaks in the fifth and looked like he would make his second Slam final.

It’s good to see, in Volandri, a player that still hits a good one-handed backhand.  His shot looks much like Stanislas Wawrinka with the same kind of bullish power that even players like Federer seems to lack.  Although Gulbis took the first set, 6-2, Volandri took the second, 6-3.  Gulbis seemed tight, but kept holding serve, and the third set went to a tiebreak.  Although it was a bit close initially, Gulbis managed to win the tiebreak, 7-4.  What hurt Gulbis a great deal was his inability to break when given chances.  Gulbis had 17 break points, but only converted 3.  Final score: 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(4).

Hopefully, Volandri can take this win and move up the rankings.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a routine win over Santiago who had two good victories, beating Juan Carlos Ferrero, 6-0, 6-3.  Then, he beat Michael Llodra, 6-3, 6-2.

In a bizarre occurrence, Ivan Ljubicic was warming up against Feliciano Lopez when he injured himself, called a trainer, and needed to retire.

Novak Djokovic had a good win over talented Brazilian, Thomaz Bellucci.  Djokovic broke late in the first to take the set, 6-4.  In the second, he was broken early, but then eventually broke two times in a row to take the second set, 6-4.  It seems the new coaching arrangement (and clay) was just what the doctor ordered for Djokovic.  Who knows why people find playing on clay a cure for what ails.

Fernando Verdasco continues his winning ways.  Rumors were that he may chose not to play all out at Rome, but instead, he’s now in the quarterfinals, having beaten Garcia-Lopez, 6-4, 7-6(2).

John Isner and Sam Querrey have continued their winning ways, beating 4th seed Bhupathi and Mirnyi.  They may be looking into making themselves into good doubles players for Davis Cup, especially with the Bryan brothers aging (though doubles players can often play til nearly 40).

Murray is playing Ferrer.  Ferrer has won the most matches of anyone on clay this year.  This is because he plas a lot on clay.  During the period between the Australian Open and Indian Wells, there were a series of clay events, and Ferrer opted to play those events.  He’s also played well since Miami.

Murray is attempting to overpower Ferrer, but mixing in slices as well.  Right now, on serve, 2-1.

Nadal wins easily over Kohlschreiber 6-1, 6-3 (Rome 2nd round)

What a difference a surface makes.  Nadal had been coming off a series of losses in the US where his opponents would serve well enough to hold serve and then go for big enough shots that Nadal would struggle to hold his own serve.  In Indian Wells, Ljubicic lost rather handily in a first set, but started holding serve in the 2nd before he played one solid return game to break and take the 2nd set then win the third in a tiebreak.  Against Andy Roddick in Miami, the scenario was similar.  Nadal took one break in the first set to win, but then Roddick held serve from them on and applied pressure by going for his shots and breaking.

Once Nadal got on clay, in Monte Carlo, he steamrolled his opponents, primarily his countrymen, in a performance so dominating that he beat Verdasco, a top 10 player, dropping only 1 game.  Everyone said Rafa was back and certainly on clay, he is back.

When people look back at Rafa’s game, they may see an unusual style of tennis, one that is almost unlike any other player out there.  Most players, at least those that have some offense, are trying to set up an opportunity to go for a winner.  Perhaps the best player to do this is Roger Federer, at least, when he’s on.  Roger wants to hit that huge inside out forehand and be done with the point.

Rafa’s heavy strokes, however, give his opponents trouble.   Rafa doesn’t want to hit winners.  His style is more akin a good male pro taking it easy on a top woman pro.  The male pro would hit hard, but not go for big shots, and this would produce great pressure for the woman who would struggle to reach shots, and eventually elicit a weak ball (weaker than usual) at which point, a winner is almost a gimme.

Rafa’s immense patience means he doesn’t go for winners unless the shot is fairly easy (or if he’s in extreme defense and needs to do something to get out of a mess).  Although he is known as a defensive player, his style is not the same as Murray, the other top defensive player in the game.  Against Murray, a player is going to feel they can hit their shots.  If they get bothered, it’s because the change of pace Murray applies causes them to lose rhythm and make errors.  Murray will often bypass shots he could attack by keeping the ball in play which is something Rafa doesn’t do.

Rafa’s approach is to apply immense pressure (when he can) without going for winners.  He does this by looping shot high or hitting hard angled crosscourt shots.  As he does this, his opponents return, but he ups the pace more and more until you are struggling to get a decent shot, and eventually pop up a weak shot which he then puts away.  If the serve were ever removed from the game, Nadal might have been number 1 for years, because he relies almost entirely on his ground game to win games (although his serve has improved).

Nadal won his opening 2nd round match easily against an opponent that isn’t that easy to play against.  Even so, Kohlschreiber had few answers and fell easily, 6-1, 6-3.

In other matches, wildcard Volandri easily beat Benneteau 6-2, 6-0.  Benneteau had beaten Querrey in his first round.  Soderling won his match in straight sets over wilcard Lorenzi, 6-1, 7-5.  Qualifier Giraldo appears to be playing a surprising Rome.  He already crushed Ferrero in the first round.  Although Llodra isn’t the same quality opponent, he beat him 6-3, 6-2.  This could create a match that might be much tougher for Gulbis (who Volandri plays next), but I expect Gulbis’s power will be too much.  Even so, keep an eye on this match.

Garcia-Lopez had an easy match over Hewitt, 6-2, 6-3.  Currently, Berdych and Wawrinka have split sets.  Berdych took the first.  Wawrinka took the second.  They are on serve early in the 3rd.

And Roger Federer?  Well, he’s actually still in the tournament!  He and partner Yves Allegro won their doubles match over a respectable doubles team, Aspelin/Hanley: 4-6, 6-3, 10-8.  Recall they play a 10 pt tiebreak in doubles in lieu of a third set (first to 10 with a lead of 2).

Verdasco is on the court now against Simone Bolleli.

Murray beats Seppi, 6-2, 6-4 (2nd round Rome)

Italian tennis has seen better days, at least, on the men’s side.  The women seem to be doing fine.  Once, players like Adriano Pannatta would give Bjorn Borg all he could handle on clay.  Today, Andreas Seppi is the highest ranked Italian player at 47.  Seppi is a solid clay courter.  Steady enough to hit from the back.  He can hit winners if provided set-up shots.  Not the biggest hitter in the world.

Still, Seppi probably liked his chances against a struggling Andy Murray.

Murray, as you know, has been in a bit of a funk.  He’s lost three matches in a row.  A 2nd round loss to Phillipp Kohlschreiber in Monte Carlo (Murray had a bye in the 1st round).  A 2nd round loss to Mardy Fish in Miami (again, a bye) in a tournament where he was defending champ.  A quarterfinal loss to Robin Soderling in Indian Wells.

After his loss to Kohlschreiber, a straight-set thumping, Team Murray moved to Barcelona, site of his training days as a junior.  The goal, apparently, was to get him match tough by playing a variety of opponents.  Team Murray took a road trip, mostly because Eyjafjallajökull, that unpronounceable Icelandic volcano (A-yah-Fee-yah-Lah-Yok-ll or something like that) was causing all manners of delays in air travel.  Although a tournament was being played simultaneously in Barcelona, Murray was content being on the practice court.

Murray’s strategy seemed to be “go back to what works”.  Having not grown up on clay, Murray has battled with how best to play on the surface.  Should he play clay like he plays hard courts?  Should he try to play like clay courters?  Typical clay court tennis involves moving the other player around, looking for an opportunity, and unleashing a winner.  This sounds like fast court play, but clay court play involves more topspin and potentially hitting many more shots to win a point.  Clay courts also encourage a greater use of drop shots.  With players playing up to 10 feet behind the baseline and the surface able to absorb energy and letting balls die, drop shots are seen more frequently on clay than any other surface.

Murray wanted to avoid the upset bug that zapped Federer out of the tournament.  Although Gulbis is a very dangerous opponent, more so than Seppi, Murray’s success on clay has been far worse than Federer and he had been slumping.

Murray’s strategy was, more or less, to play how he plays on hard courts.  He would slice a lot of balls, move the ball around.  The one concession he made to the slow surface was to attack more off his backhand.  This was in contrast to the heavy looping style he used against Kohlschreiber to ill effect.

Murray started off quick.  He held, then broke serve.  Then, Murray got into trouble and had to save break points.  Murray gets into such problems often, and you can tell when he’s playing well when he digs himself out of break points.  Murray was eventually able to play a long game and break Seppi a second time and won the first set, 6-2.

In the second set, Murray was able to break early again, and was on the verge of breaking a second time, but couldn’t do it, as Seppi held.  Seppi, for his part, was making quite a few unforced errors, and this prevented him from bothering Murray much.  He did have one last hurrah.  As Murray served for the match, Murray hit a drop shot.  Seppi chased it down, and Murray lobbed the shot over Seppi, who then could only manage a tweener.  That shot went up the line and hit the line to bring the score to 30-15.  Murray then hit a huge serve to 40-15, and a few points later, won the match, 6-2, 6-4.

Murray’s likely opponent is David Ferrer who will still need to get past Potito Starace, one of the other Italians in the tournament.  Ferrer would probably be favored in that match, mostly because he’s played so well on clay.  Ferrer beat Korolev, 6-4, 6-1, in the usual way.  Korolev, formerly of Russia and now playing for Kazakhstan, goes for shots and Ferrer gets them back, making him something of a human backboard, but one that can hit winners if you let him.

Bellucci took three sets to beat Mayer and has been having a solid clay season.  On Wednesday, Soderling, Nadal, Kohlschreiber, Verdasco, and Ferrer will play.  Berdych will play Wawrinka, Tsonga against Troicki, and Lopez against Cilic.

Gulbis Upsets Federer in 3 Sets in Rome (2nd round)

Everyone knew this would be a tough opener for Federer, regardless of who he faced.  On the one hand, he could face Marcos Baghdatis, the guy who beat him in Indian Wells.  On the other, Ernests Gulbis, who everyone said could be the next great player as long as 3-4 years ago.  Hard to believe he’s only 21 years old.  For a while, Gulbis’s career appeared to be in a tailspin.  He was doing without a coach, and was losing to players that had less talent, but more focus, more tennis smarts.

2010 looked like a new year for Ernests.  In particular, he won Delray Beach over Ivo Karlovic doing what few could do to the tall Croatian–return his serve.  Playing Baghdatis in the first round wasn’t exactly a walk in the park.  Indeed, Gulbis had never beaten Baghdatis.  But with a new coach (Hernan Gumy, hired last year), Gulbis was finding focus to tame his big serve and groundstrokes, and this lead to a 6-2, 6-2 win.

Federer started off quick enough, with a 6-2 opening set, but Gulbis turned it around and took the second set just as easily, 6-1.  Gulbis then took an early break over Federer, leading 3-1, then 4-2, then, 5-3.  Federer needed to again fight off match points on his own serve, and then held to 5-4.  Gulbis had match points on his own serve, but was trying to gun for big second serves to win the match easily, but double-faulted twice and eventually lost serve to let Federer tie it up 5-all.

Alas, Federer wasn’t ready to put the hammer down, and found himself down break points again on his own serve and then down the break, 6-5.  His last two games saw him missing every first serve save one, letting Gulbis get a good look on nearly every serve.  Finally, Gulbis fought nerves and finished the match, taking it 7-5 in the third.

What does this result mean?  Federer hadn’t played since an early loss to Berdych at Miami.  In each of his losses, he’s gone three sets, and even had match points against Baghdatis and Berdych.  Federer fought off match points against Gulbis who was hitting the ball well, but Federer didn’t help matters by missing a ton of first serves.  One odd question to ask is whether Federer cares to win matches outside the Slams.  Make it look good and then go back and practice some more.   Although Gulbis certainly is talented, Federer’s numerous missed serves and his usual “going for big shots” and missing shows Fed playing less than his best in events outside the Slam.

Fed is in doubles this year, however, playing with Yves Allegro, also of Switzerland.  Perhaps he’ll focus on doubles.

In other results, Almagro needed three sets to beat Kubot.  Lopez beat Becker in straight sets.  Fed’s countryman, Stan Wawrinka, won his match over Jurgen Melzer, 6-1, 6-2.  Troicki won over de Bakker when de Bakker retired in th third set.  Bolelli beat Greul in straights and Hewitt outlasted Youzhny in 3 sets.  These were first round matches.

In other second round matches, Hanescu played two tight sets to beat Monaco, and Djokovic had an easy, 6-1, 6-1 win over Chardy.

Andy Murray is scheduled to play later today.

Rome: Early Monday Results

Perhaps the most anticipated of the first round match, if you can call a first round “anticipated”, was a first round match between Ernests Gulbis and Marcos Baghdatis.  For most players, even players that play in the main draw of a Masters 1000 event, winning a title, possibly 2 in a year, is considered a great achievement.   Both these players have already won an event in 2010.  Baghdatis won in Sydney just before the Australian Open and Gulbis won in Delray Beach just before Indian Wells.

On paper, it would seem Baghdatis would be favored.  He has a 4-0 head-to-head over Gulbis including 2 victories in 2009.  However, these head-to-heads can occasionally be deceptive.  In particular, fans know that Gulbis has been a wild talent, at times, working without a coach, and failing to maximize his talent.  Last year, he began working with Hernan Gumy, an Argentine who last worked with the also wildly underutiilzed talent of Marat Safin.  Gumy has been able to add patience and creativity to the Gulbis game.

For those who haven’t watch Gulbis, it might not be hard to guess that Gulbis’s strength are his serve and his forehand.  Gulbis has begun harnessing his serve and this has lead to a lot of easy holds for him.  Baghdatis had few answers for Gulbis’s serve.  Weak returns lead to putaways.  Meanwhile, when points did go for extended rallies, Gulbis pulled out drop shots galore, with one point leading to a Baghdatis ‘tweener (he didn’t win the point).  Gulbis’s solid play lead to an easy 6-2, 6-2 win.

Gulbis’s run may be over, before it gets started, however.  He gets to play Roger Federer in the next round.  This isn’t, obviously, an easy 2nd round match.  Federer has been known to have to work his way into tournaments.  He’d probably have rather seen pretty much anyone else.  In any case, this will be one of the more highly anticipated second round matches.

Phillipp Kohlschreiber needed some work to beat Pablo Cuevas of Uruguay, beating him 6-7, 6-1, 6-4.

Two upsets, both Spaniards.  Albert Montanes lost to wildcard Paolo Lorenzi of Italy, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3.  Even more shocking was Ferrero’s loss to Santiago Giraldo of Colombia, 6-0, 6-3.  Apparently Giraldo was hitting lights out, hitting over 30 winners in his win.  Ferrero may also be somewhat exhausted having played quite a few tournaments already, where he’s gone deep into the tournament.

Finally, speaking of big serves, John Isner won his first clay match on his 25th birthday.  He beat Horacio Zeballos in 3 tough sets where he hit 20 aces and only lost serve once.  Zeballos recently made the semis in Houston losing to Juan Ignacio Chela.  Isner got a break late in the third set then had to fight off nerves before holding to win.

Got to give credit for Tennis Channel to use the British guys (Robby Koenig, Jason Goodall, and sometimes American, Doug Adler) for their coverage.  These guys travel to all the Masters 1000 tournaments and so their knowledge of tennis is both current and immense.  They also have a good idea which matches are interesting to watch without having to pay nationalistic allegiance (except occasionally to Murray).  Thus, a match that might seem rather uneventful to the untrained eye, Igor Andreev vs. Juan Monaco, is seen as a tough first rounder, and there is preference to show this over Julien Benneteau vs Sam Querrey (they are in a tight first set match, both pairs).

The announcers pointed out a few interesting tidbits.  Monaco trained in Spain at about the same time Murray was there (I believe Murray mentioned this when he lost to Monaco last year in Rome).  Also, they plan to change the schedule so Madrid is the 2nd of the two Masters 1000 clay event and Rome is 3rd.  It will be played at the same time as the women’s event.  This would make at least 3 events (outside the Slams) that men/women play at (Indian Wells, Miami, Rome).  I know there are a few others, but none come to mind offhand.

Rome Preview

Once called the Italian Open, Rome now has a rather ponderous name: Internationalzi BNL d’Italia, which makes sense except BNL.  Once, it was a challenge to get top players to play the clay circuit.  Players like Connors and McEnroe often skipped right to the French, unwilling to take their lumps playing grueling points that weren’t well suited to their games.

The powers that be didn’t like that so much and wanted all the top players to play more of the second tier events, the events that weren’t the Slams.  Thus, the Masters series, which then became the Masters 1000 series.  The top players are all required to play these events, if physically able, otherwise, they face fines.  Apparently, there is a veteran exemption that lets you skip a required event once a year.  Andy Roddick has already chosen to use that exemption, perhaps wanting some more quite time with him and the wife.

The only Masters 1000 event that is optional is Monte Carlo, and several players, including Roddick and Federer, chose to make it optional.  It’s worth as many points as any other Masters 1000, but players aren’t compelled to play it if they don’t want.

Rome will mark the appearance of Roger Federer who has not played since losing in Miami to Tomas Berdych.  Although he came early to the US to prepare at Indian Wells, his training seemed to have been disrupted by a lung infection that caused him to miss Dubai.  In matches against Baghdatis and Berdych, Federer’s consistency appears to have abandoned him.  This may be due to an underlying reason.  In the past, that reason was his back, which bothered him sometime at the end of 2008.  Federer has lamented that he didn’t play as well as he did in Australia.

Ever since Nadal faltered at the Australian Open, losing in the quarterfinals, his ranking has dropped somewhere between 3 and 4.  He had been playing ranking tag with Andy Murray.  Murray’s poor play this spring has meant that, despite playing, his ranking has dropped.  More on Murray later.

Nadal has fallen out of the number 3 spot before.  During the US Open, Nadal was seeded 3, with Murray 2.  Even so, Nadal and Murray were in the same half of the draw, not that Murray was able to reach the semifinals to meet Nadal, losing early to Marin Cilic who then fell to Juan Martin del Potro, who then clubbed Nadal in the semis.

After the French, Djokovic became number 2.  His play has been fairly spotty since then.  He’s recently started to play better, but his loss to Verdasco was a bit unexpected, and although Verdasco appears to be hitting his stride in the clay season, one has to wonder whether Djokovic has regained the form that helped him do so well from the US Open til the end of the year.

Ever since Nadal dropped to 3 and below, there’s always been the chance that he and Federer could be placed in the same half of the draw, and yet, that has failed to happen.  At the US Open, Nadal was in the opposite half from Federer.  Nadal was number 2 in Australia, so that automatically meant he and Federer could only meet in the finals, were they to play, which they didn’t.  In Indian Wells and Miami, Rafa again was in the opposite half of the draw from Federer.

Federer chose not to play Monte Carlo, but finally, at Rome, there’s the possibility that he may face Nadal in the semifinals.

Federer has to deal with a tough match right off the bat.  He gets a bye, as do the other top 8 seeds.  He gets the winner of Ernests Gulbis and Marcos Baghdatis.  Baghdatis leads the series, 4-0, but they’ve only played on fast surfaces, never on clay.  Will Gulbis’s recent win at Delray Beach boost his confidence?  He made a decent run at Monte Carlo, but lost to Verdasco in the quarters.

Querrey starts his Rome match with another Frenchman, though this time it is Julien Benneteau rather than Jeremy Chardy who he played at Indian Wells (won) and Miami (lost).  Is Querrey ready to play on clay?  He reached the finals of Houston which is on clay, so that’s positive.

In the same quarter as Federer, but in the adjacent eighth, there are some tough players: Almagro, Lopez, Cilic, and Becker.  Fortunately for whoever comes out of Fed’s eighth, they can only play one of those players.

In the other quarter looms Nadal.  He’s going to be heavily favored to come out of that quarter.  He may play Kohlschreiber again in the 2nd round.  They played on the hard courts in Australia, but not since then.  Hanescu has won his match and will play the winner of Andreev and Monaco.  Whoever wins that match is likely to play Nadal.

The adjacent eighth to Nadal’s also has some tough players: Melzer, Berdych, Wawrinka, Montanes, and Soderling, who just reached the finals of Barcelona.

Murray takes on Seppi, and if he manages to get past Seppi, he potentially has to play David Ferrer, who has been playing outstanding tennis.  Indeed, four Spaniards have played well on clay this year.  At the top is Nadal, then Verdasco, then Ferrer and Ferrero.

In Murray’s adjacent eighth is Tsonga, Beck, Ferrero and de Bakker.  Murray has a lot to prove and clay is not the best surface to show whether Murray is back or not.

Speaking of Murray, let’s talk about his ranking.  Murray had a fair bit of points to defend from last year heading into the clay season.  This included winning Rotterdam, making the finals of Indian Wells, and winning Miami.  He then reached the semifinals of Monte Carlo.  This year, he skipped Rotterdam, lost early in Dubai, made the quarters of Indian Wells and lost early in Miami as well as Monte Carlo.

This means, even with players like Juan Martin del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko not playing, del Potro has actually moved to fourth in the rankings, mostly because del Potro didn’t have quite as many points to defend as Murray did.  Had Murray done, say, much better in Rome than he did last year (an early loss to Juan Monaco), he could have been in danger of dropping behind another player who is recuperating, Nikolay Davydenko.  Davydenko also lost early in Rome, so he has almost no points lost when those points drop off (10 points).  He’ll lose more at Madrid, so this should keep Murray ahead of Davydenko up til the French.

Depending on when del Potro comes back, Murray may end up regaining the number 4 ranking.  del Potro is 240 points ahead of Murray.  del Potro made the quarters of Rome while Murray has nearly no points to defend.  If del Potro fails to play Madrid, then Murray will almost surely move ahead of del Potro, who will lose 540 points between the two tournaments.

Verdasco is about to see if he can handle the grind of the clay circuit.  Having reached the finals of Monte Carlo and winning Barcelona, he’ll play again.  This time, he gets the winner of Bolleli and Greul, which should be something of an easy match (he gets a bye).  In the next grouping, there is Chela, Hewitt, Garcia-Lopez, and Youzhny.  Chela recently won Houston.  Hewitt is coming off injury.

Djokovic plays Jeremy Chardy in the 2nd round.  In his eighth, there is also Isner, Zeballos, Bellucci and Mayer with Bellucci perhaps the toughest one in that section.

To me, there are several big questions. Can Murray get past a round or two, and make at least the quarterfinals.  Compared to last year when Murray looked like he was playing better on clay, he seems to have regressed some.

Has Djokovic overcome some of his confidence issues?  Is Nadal still full of confidence and ready to roll?  How is Federer doing?  Right now, Nadal and maybe Verdasco are the hot players on clay.  Will Federer somehow lose before he plays Nadal?

Verdasco wins Barcelona over Soderling

It used to be a spring ritual.  When the tour headed to Europe on a 7 week clay excursion, most players were playing for second place.  Rafael Nadal would typically play four clay events heading into the French: Monte Carlo (an optional Masters 1000), Barcelona, Rome, and Madrid (this used to be Hamburg, until Hamburg got demoted and Madrid moved to clay after being an indoor event for years).  Last year, Rafa won 3 of 4 events and was a finalist in the only event he didn’t win (a loss to Federer in Madrid).

When Rafa won Monte Carlo for the sixth time, he decided that he didn’t want a replay of last year, where he went into the French with tendinitis in the knees, and shocking lost to Swedish upstart, Robin Soderling.  Rafa chose to skip Barcelona, where he had been five time champ, thus making sure another player would take the title this year.

The two finalists feature two late bloomers.  On the one hand, Fernando Verdasco was always known as a hard hitting lefty possessing one of the bigger forehands in the game.  Mentally, he’s not always been as solid as he could be, so he was always a solid top 20 player, but didn’t seem ready to take the next leap.  That changed in a Davis Cup match against Argentina where he prevailed in 5 sets over Jose Acasuso.  That confidence propelled him to a win over Andy Murray in 2009 and a semifinal match against Rafael Nadal, which was an epic five-setter that many hoped would lead to many more victories.

This was only partly true.  Verdasco became a guy that floated right around 10 in the ranking.  Lately, he’s learned to steady out his game some.  Few thought that clay would be his best surface, since his game seemed better suited to faster surfaces.  Even so, what Spaniard isn’t comfortable on clay?

Last year, the clay kings were Rafael Nadal (of course) and Novak Djokovic, with Roger Federer playing well at the end.  I refer only to the clay events leading to the French, as the French is really its own event.

This year, Nadal has resumed where he left off, taking Monte Carlo, despite not winning a title since Rome, and did so dropping the fewest games ever in Monte Carlo.  He beat Fernando Verdasco in the finals handily.

Verdasco, however, continued to play well in Barcelona making the finals.  He beat Richard Gasquet, Jurgen Melzer, Ernests Gulbis, Thomaz Bellucci, and David Ferrer to reach the finals.

Like Verdasco Robin Soderling is also something of a late bloomer reaching the top 10 in his mid 20s.  Soderling beat Juan Ignacio Chela, Feliciano Lopez, Eduardo Schwank, and Thiemo de Bakker.

This match went three sets, with Verdasco winning 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.  Soderling had a 4-1 head-to-head leading into the match, including two wins on clay.  However, Verdasco was able to turn that around to win his fifth career title and his second this year (the first was in San Jose).

Rome has already started early round play today and will continue throughout this week.  This should be the first tournament with all the healthy top players (minus Roddick) playing.  This includes Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Robin Soderling, Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as the top 8 seeds.  Davydenko, del Potro are still out due to injury, and Andy Roddick chose not to play Rome.  Veterans are allowed one exemption a year without penalty from a required event.