Quaterfinal Predictions

I’m not much into predictions.  I just use head to head matchups to see how things might be.  So let’s do this.

Again, we’ll be denied a Federer-Nadal matchup mostly because Fed is struggling.

Berdych plays Verdasco next.  Berdych has a 5-3 record, but they tend to go back and forth.  The two met in Indian Wells where Berdych crushed Verdasco.  I’d imagine that a fatigued Berdych might make their quarterfinal encounter closer.  We’ll see.  Players that produce an upset generally get upset in the next round.  When Federer beat Sampras in the 2001 Wimbledon encounter, he lost to Tim Henman in the following round.

Next up is Mikhail Youzhny and Robin Soderling.  The two last met in the finals of Rotterdam with Youzhny retiring from that match.  Soderling leads 2-1 in head to head, including the last two.  Should Soderling win, it will be his second straight Masters 1000.  I think Soderling will be favored based on recent results.

Next up is Tsonga vs. Nadal.  Who could forget their first encounter in the 2008 Australian Open where Tsonga used his drop volley to great effect.   Alas, Nadal has won their last 4 encounters.  Nadal should be favored, but Tsonga had an easy match over Ferrero, and the two generally play close matches.  Should be fun!

Finally, a first time encounter between Andy Roddick and Nicolas Almagro.  Almagro has a pretty big serve and hits big off the ground, but Roddick recently played the likes of Tommy Robredo, so you feel that Roddick should get past Almagro.

If the head-to-head matchups prove correct, we’d see Soderling against Berdych and Roddick against Nadal.  With most of the top seeds out, a Roddick vs. Nadal semi would be pretty cool to see.

Berdych Pulls Out a Thriller Over Federer in Miami 4th round

Some said that Federer was still hungover from his loss to Baghdatis in Indian Wells.  That loss occurred in the 3rd round.  Many chalked that loss to being ill with a lung infection.  Federer skipped Dubai to recover from a lung infection.  Doctors told him not to play for two weeks.  So there was bound to be rust.

His early loss meant that he should have had time to prepare.  Still, even fit Federer would have been a little apprehensive playing Berdych.  Given two juggernauts of the sport, Federer and Nadal, some have a preference to play Federer and some have a preference to play Nadal.  Soderling, for example, would probably be much happier playing Nadal than Federer.  Against Nadal, you feel like you have a chance to attack, if it presents itself.  On the other hand, if you make a lot of errors, you prefer Federer.

Federer has a handful of players outside the top 10 that seem to give him trouble.  There’s Igor Andreev and there’s Tomas Berdych.  Berdych has the kind of big hitting game that can go toe to toe with Roger.  Berdych often does well because Fed coughs up errors.  Against Nadal, you just don’t expect an error in 2 or 3 shots.  Nadal makes you hit half a dozen shots or more before he might miss out wide or into the net, and often you have to pressure him to make that error.

Federer, on the other hand, is always on the attack.  He plays big shots all the time.  When he’s on, he looks sublime and there’s little you can do to counter it.  When he’s off, he hits shots a bit long, a bit wide.  In a good “bad” match, Federer tends to hold serve well, making the big shots when he has to, but then struggles with errors in return games.   Federer has never been the kind of returner that Nadal or Murray is.  He plays more of a Sampras style, trying to hold serve, then waiting for a game or so to break.  The problem is his serve.  Federer’s serve isn’t nearly the weapon Sampras’s serve is.  Sampras really needed his big serve to get him out of break points.  Federer often rallies out of break points.

Against Serra, Federer looked like he might run away with the match, but in each set, let Serra break him and force him into tiebreaks.  In the tiebreaks, Fed won quite easily.

Federer again had an early break in the first set, but let Berdych break back twice.  In the first set, Federer struggled with his shot.  The second set saw Federer pressuring Berdych’s serve, threatening to break, but Berdych saved 7 break points and never lost serve.  Federer then took control of the tiebreak winning 7-3.  It seemed Federer had found his form and might run away with the third set.

Except Federer lost his serve early in the third set and had to wait til 4-3 to break back.  Federer continued to make errors especially on return game.  Federer had a 0-30 game only to have errors allow Berdych to take the lead and win that game.  In the tiebreak, Federer struggled a bit, falling behind, but then hitting a brilliant drop shot which Berdych barely got and fell over, while Federer hit to the open court.

Federer had a match point late when Berdych went inside out and appeared to hit the ball just wide of the sideline.  Berdych challenged and the call was correct by only the slimmest of fractions.  Berdych had to save match point on Federer’s serve.  Federer had to hit a second serve, then Berdych hit a solid return to Fed’s backhand, which he barely dug out, then Berdych hit to the open court.  With another error, Fed found himself at match point down and Berdych serving to close out the set.

Berdych eventually had match point on his serve.  He made a first serve, but Fed returned it well, and then Berdych his a return up the middle, and Fed drove the ball long, losing another match where he had match point.

In the end, Federer made 60 unforced errors to Berdych’s 45.  Berdych kept his focus long enough to win while Federer, being stubborn, refused to play more conservatively and let Berdych make more errors.

Final score: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(6).

Fernando Verdasco upset Marin Cilic, 6-4, 7-6(3).

Federer now finds himself in a worse situation than last year.  Federer had thought the hard court season (Indian Wells and Miami) were awful in 2009, but he lost in the semifinals in both tournaments.  Admittedly, they were to his rivals, Murray and Djokovic, but this year, with Murray and Djokovic already out, Federer finds himself dealing with the same problems that have plagued him the last 2-3 years, namely, how to deal with the errors in his game.  Federer will, once again, have to find some solace on clay.

Soderling Knocks Out Gonzalez in Miami 4th Round

Fernando Gonzalez had chosen not to go to Indian Wells so he could head to Chile to assist with relief efforts.  He returns to Miami, but had to face hard hitting Soderling.  Soderling took the first set, 6-0, but Gonzalez worked hard to take the second set in a tiebreak.  Gonzalez was testy, complaining that the line judges were not seeing the ball correctly.  Although Gonzo pushed it to a 2nd set, Soderling came back to win the third set, 6-2.

Gonzalez is teaming up with Gustavo “Guga” Kuerten to play Roddick and Jim Courier in a fundraiser to help out with victims of the Chile earthquake.  This exhibition will occur the night before the men’s final.  With Gonzo out already, he can focus his efforts to this event.

Rafael Nadal has a pretty good win-loss record against David Ferrer.  Players have learned how to play Rafa, which is to take your chances.  Rafa has a tendency to play somewhat passively, and if you don’t take advantage when you can, then when he sees a weak ball, he’ll be on the attack.  Unfortunately, Ferrer was making a few too many errors.  Rafa wins in a tight one, 7-6, 6-4, breaking late in the 2nd set.

Fellow Spaniard, Nicolas Almagro needed three sets to beat lefty Brazilian, Thomaz Bellucci.  Bellucci had some rowdy supporters who must have known some naughty Spanish.  Almagro wanted the guy tossed from the stands, but he was merely given a warning.  Almagro won 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(3).

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just demolished Juan Carlos Ferrero, 6-2, 6-2.  Ferrero had beaten Isner in the previous round.

Andy Roddick was down an early break in the first set against Benjamin Becker, but came back to take the first set in a tiebreak, and won the second set more handily: 7-6(4), 6-3.   Roddick continues to plug away winning matches that he is supposed to.

Mikhail Youzhny didn’t have to stay on court too long.  After leading, 6-1, 1-0, Mardy Fish retired due to injury.  Fish had upset Andy Murray in the 2nd round and won his 3rd round over Feliciano Lopez.

Fernando Verdasco is up a set over Marin Cilic and it is tight in the 2nd set.  Roger Federer is playing Tomas Berdych in the late evening match.

The Effortless Game of Miloslav Mecir

Until the 1970s, the amount of tennis coverage in the US was quite limited.  For example, the first “Breakfast at Wimbledon” was in 1979.  This was the first live telecast of Wimbledon men’s final.  It was thought that few would wake up to watch a sporting event, so it was tape delayed.  Indeed, for many years, the French Open women’s final was televised tape delayed.  Tape delay was used so frequently in the 1970s that many forget that the “Do you believe in miracles?” hockey game between US and Russia was tape delayed and not shown live.

The late 1970s changed everything as cable TV became increasing common and ESPN, the premier sports channel in the US.  USA Network was the other competing network with its mix of reruns of old shows, bad movies, and sporting events.  They used to cover the US Open during hours CBS did not cover it.  Despite cable having been around for some 35 years, Tennis Channel didn’t arrive on the scene until about 5 years ago.

Players that played in the 1960s and earlier would only have some fame if they were really really good.  Thus names like Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall, Pancho Gonzalez, Jack Kramer, and so forth were famous because they were good.  There was no pro tour in the 1960s, at least, not until 1968, so much like the American Idol top 10 tour (you have to be in the top 10 to go to the summer tour), only the best went pro and earned money as a pro.

Many other players faded to obscurity.

But in the 1980s, another invention came out that proved critical to preserving the memories of tennis from the 1980s: the VCR.  As amazing as the VCR is, it was almost made illegal.  Even in the early days of cable television, content providers were scared people would record and distribute content.  Fred Rogers, better known as Mr. Rogers of Mr. Rogers Neighborhood, testified to Congress that parents may want to watch his show at later hours, and so VCRs were permitted.

This allowed fans to record matches, albeit on poor quality medium, not the HD stuff of today.  And when YouTube came out in 2005, some of these fans began to comb through their old content and put it up.

This meant a player as obscure as Miloslav Mecir could still be watched today.

Many of the best East European players came from what was then called Czechoslovakia.  On the women’s side, there was Martina Navratilova, who eventually defected and became an American.  On the men’s side was Ivan Lendl, who perhaps should have earned many more Slams than he did.

A geography neophyte might look at “Czechoslovakia” and wonder if it came from two parts: Czech and Slovakia.  And indeed, it did.  When the Soviet Union fell apart, the country of Czechoslovakia split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia.  Many of the players coming from Czechoslovakia were Czech, including Lendl and Navratilova.

Mecir, on the other hand, was a Slovak.  He was given a nickname “The Big Cat” apparently from an Italian tennis reporter, and it was repeated often by the floral Mary Carillo.  Mecir moved effortlessly across the court.  He was also known as the Swede Killer.  In the 1980s, the Swedes were a formidable group.  It included Mats Wilander, Joachim Nystrom, Anders Jarryd, Stefan Edberg, Henrik Sundstrom, and eventually Kent Carlsson and Jonas Bjorkman.

Sweden is a tiny country with a population just under 10 million.  There are plenty of cities in the world that have 10 million people.  Consider India which has a billion people over 100 times the population of Sweden and yet Sweden does an incredible job at per capita athletes using a system more often seen in communist countries (creating cheap sports clubs and having sports experts identify and cultivate talent).  Much like the Spaniards of today and the Aussies of the 1960s and earlier, the Swedes of the 1980s trained together and made each other better.

Mecir had a game that baffled nearly all the Swedes.  It was said the “Big Cat” would lull his opponents to sleep, and boom, hit a shot up the line.  Mecir didn’t hit with much topspin.  His strokes didn’t look particularly pretty, but he could hit both a sharp angle backhand and thread this shot up the line.  He’d often be engaged in a casual crosscourt backhand rally and boom, hit an up the line shot, with his opponent wondering where that shot came from.

Mecir was able to hit shots up the line on his forehand too.  This ability to hit shots up the line made Mecir dangerous.  He was also an exceptional returner.

And one could argue that Mecir played a style that was years ahead of its time.  In particular, Mecir didn’t serve and volley a great deal, but he came to net rather frequently.  By the way, if you need a new net, newer technology is providing great tennis nets for sale. Most people who remember Mecir probably don’t recall how good a volleyer he was because we were so used to seeing serve and volleyers, more like Edberg, than a baseliner looking to approach.

Here’s a sample of Mecir’s game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_34nkKIUXc

This was a match between Mecir and Lendl in Key Biscayne, what would now be called the Sony Ericsson Open.  Mecir’s forehand, notably, looks very casual, almost classic in it’s approach.  And he’ll practically push, push, push the ball, then up the pace on a ball.  When Lendl tries to hit a bigger shot, Mecir is quick enough to run it down.

Wait until about 4:30 into the clip when Mecir hits a crosscourt backhand that clips the net, and pops up short.  Lendl swoops in and hits a sharply angled crosscourt backhand, almost a passing shot with Mecir at the baseline.  Mecir has to scramble to his left, nearly 15 feet off the side to hit a recovery shot.  Lendl it a bit handcuffed and returns a crosscourt shot and Mecir recovers with a crosscourt of his own.  Lendl hits a sharper crosscourt and eventually Mecir hits a good up the line forehand and Lendl nets the slice into the net with Mecir approaching the net.

Another classic match was Mecir playing in the 1987 quarterfinal where he would lose to Mats Wilander.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2bzlj4ypvw

Mecir would show a modern ability to hit passing shots in difficult situations.  If you watch this, you’ll see how often Mecir comes to net and how he volleyed quite well despite not being a traditional serve and volleyer.

Mecir would reach two Slam finals, once in the 1986 US Open and once in the 1989 Australian Open, losing both to Ivan Lendl in straight sets.  Unusually enough, Mecir played the 1986 US Open with a wooden racquet, the last time a player would reach the final of a Slam playing with wood.  He would win a gold medal in the Olympics in 1988 to give him something to look back on and also won bronze in doubles.

He would win his last title in Indian Wells in 1989, winning a five setter over Yannick Noah.

Mecir turned pro as an 18 year old in 1982, but 8 short years later, he’d retire in 1990, due to back injuries, at the age of 26.

Federer Wins Close 3rd Round Match over Serra

Federer’s play in anything but the Slams can be an up-and-down affair.  More often than not, he plays down to lesser opponents.  If you merely looked at the score, 7-6, 7-6, you’d think Federer had a tough time, but he was up a break in the first and up two breaks in the second, and still let Serra back into the match.  Federer honestly looked like he was running away with the match, and yet, played sloppy points to let Serra back in.

At times, the biggest difference between Federer and his opponents is his ability to win the big points.  He often takes as many risky shots as players like Serra.  Federer’s shot tolerance tends to be much lower than, say, Roddick or Nadal or Djokovic, and so he can look just as frail against a player like Serra who might struggle to beat a steadier top ranked player.

Even so, Federer is likely to say a victory is a victory, and not fret too much that he let Serra back into the match.

Marin Cilic is beginning to right the ship that looked strangely awry when he lost very early in Indian Wells.  Cilic handled Baghdatis routinely, 6-3, 6-4.  Up to Indian Wells, Cilic had been one of the hotter players on tour.  The question is whether he’s ready to reclaim that mantle as he moves on through the draw.

Tomas Berdych won his match in straight sets over Zeballos in two close sets, 6-4, 7-5.

Mardy Fish continues to surprise as he beats Feliciano Lopez, 7-5, 6-3.  Much like Andy Roddick, Fish recently lost some weight.  The reason for doing so may mirror Nadal’s reason: to reduce the amount of pressure on his knees.

Stanislas Wawrinka and Mikhail Youzhny seem to play a similar game.  Both are aggressive with great one-handed backhands.  Wawrinka lead their head-to-head 2-1.  The two have met a bit more often on clay than on faster surfaces.  Wawrinka started off hot, with a 6-1 first set, but Youzhny clawed his way back taking the second set in a tiebreak, and the third set, 7-5.

Fernando Gonzalez plays Juan Monaco tonight.  Soderling is currently playing Petzschner leading 2-0 in the first set, and Verdasco is playing Melzer.  Melzer is up an early break, 1-0, and trying to consolidate the break.

Murray Goes Mental

Visit any tennis website or any YouTube tennis instructional video and you discover the focus is primarily on technique.  It’s about how you hit the ball.  If you were to take a computer programming class, say, in Java, you’d be essentially taught the grammar of the language.  You wouldn’t really be taught how to program even though the course title suggests you would.  To make an analogy for the non-programmers out there, imagine you took a class in “Writing Novels in French”, but they assumed you didn’t know any French, so you spend all your time learning French vocabulary and grammar, but almost no time on how to tell a good story.

The point?  Tennis is more than technique.  Tennis is also strategy.  And tennis, like many sports, is about mental toughness.  Our own beloved Essential Tennis has addressed mental toughness issues primarily because some fans asked questions about how to play the way they practice during match time.

Andy Murray recently admitted that his recent woes were mental.  This is a rare admission for a pro.  Sure, there have been pros that have been known to be head cases.  Marat Safin and Dinara Safina.  Safina, in particular, has put so much pressure for her to win that her play has precipitously declined.  To be fair, if one was that nervous playing tennis, one would probably not get to the top of the ranks.

Andy Murray’s mental issues seem easier to trace than Novak Djokovic.  Andy Murray spent December as he normally does, training in Miami.  He then skipped an early exhibition in the Middle East and then skipped Doha as well, choosing to head to Australia and play an exhibition, the Hopman Cup.  The Hopman Cup is a variation of the Davis Cup, which includes one man, one woman, playing singles, then mixed doubles.  Usually, one player might be weaker than the other, potentially significantly so, and the mixed doubles is a way for the stronger player to help the weaker one.   In this case, Murray teamed up with Brit teen phenom, Laura Robson, whose ranking, nonetheless was in the triple digits.

During the Hopman Cup, Murray looked like he was moving better than ever, and although he lost to Tommy Robredo in singles, he seemed good to go for the Australian.  And, Andy Murray reached his second Slam final.  Much like most people, most notably, Andy Roddick, Andy Murray faced Roger Federer in the finals.  Federer’s consistency overall seems to have slipped.  He’ll have surprising losses in week to week tournaments.  But in Slams, he usually proceeds in an upward crescendo.  He may not play well his first few matches, indeed, Davydenko seemed poised to upset Roger Federer, but as the Slam gets deeper, those shanks, those errors, just seem to disappear.

And so Murray, despite a game effort, couldn’t push Roger into a fourth set, and when award ceremony time game, he shed a few tears.  He said “I can cry like Roger, it’s a shame I can’t play like him” using the word “shame” as a Brit would (you can hardly imagine Andy Roddick saying this).  It seems Andy Murray took this loss a bit more than most had expected.  I was sure he was spending the days after the Australian Open training again, trying to devise a new way to beat Roger Federer.

Instead, other than an obligatory charity event, Murray didn’t even pick up a racquet for 10 days.  That loss appeared to have hit him pretty hard.  He was originally scheduled to play Marseille, having decided to skip Rotterdam the week before, where he was defending champ.  The tournament director railed against Murray for skipping Marseille and said he should be banned for not fulfilling his tournament obligations.  This brouhaha appears to have spurned him to head to Dubai, where the draw had him meeting Federer in the semis.  But Federer dropped out because of a lung infection.

Murray, for his part, won his first round, then played a tight match against Serbian journeyman, Janko Tipsarevic.  Although Murray hit his racquet on the ground after the loss, he went into the interview saying that he would normally have spent the time practicing, insinuating that the bad press he got in Marseille compelled him to show up in Dubai, an event he might have skipped as well.  He said he tried a few things out.  This upset tournament organizers who, rightly, pointed out that Dubai was an ATP 500 event, just underneath the Masters 1000.

After his early exit, Murray wouldn’t play again until Indian Wells.  To be honest, his loss in Indian Wells wasn’t so horrendous.  He lost to Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals.  True, a player with aspirations to number 1 needs to pretty much beat anybody, but Soderling has the game to bother Murray.  To be fair, it’s not like every hard hitter bothers Murray.  Murray has a good record against del Potro who has a monster serve and the biggest forehand in the game.  Murray may play passively, but he is where he is because he returns exceptionally well.

When Murray lost to Mardy Fish in 2nd round play (Murray had a bye in the first round), he pointed to Fish’s past success, rather than point to his current ranking of 101.  Many pros have the potential to play much better than their current ranking would imply, but Murray probably knew that he should have beaten Fish.  Fish knew that Murray wasn’t playing as well as he did in the Australian Open, but he didn’t care.  If Murray tripped and had to retire, Fish might have said “a victory is a victory”.

Murray blamed the loss to his head.  He said he’s been through bad patches before, and he just needed to get past this.  Murray trains in Miami and he was the defending champ, so to lose earlier than he hoped in Indian Wells and then even earlier in Miami has to be devastating.  And the tour only heads to clay after this, Murray’s weakest surface.   Murray has opted not to play Monte Carlo, the one clay event he did somewhat OK last year.

It used to be, before Murray went on his current streak of success (one can point to the summer of 2008 as the tipping point for his success) once he learned to tame his rather surly emotions.  Once upon a time, Murray would yell at himself, get upset, and not choose to fight,  Since the summer of 2008, Murray has stayed more upbeat, and has toughed out matches where he once used to give up.  Murray seems to attribute some of his issues with that negative attitude creeping back into his game.

There is, at least, some level of comprehension why Murray might be losing his matches now.  With Djokovic?  Who knows?  Djokovic may have health issues that are not well-known, e.g., asthma or some-such.  It may be something he is loathe to explain as a top player.  But he has had issues with the heat, and his share of bizarre losses.  At least, Murray’s losses tend to follow the same M.O.  He loses to big hitters.  With Djokovic?  He seems to flake out some.

In the meanwhile, Andy Murray needs to reflect on what to do next.  He might chalk up his loss to a resurgent Fish (after all, Murray did lose in the first round of the Australian Open in 2008 to an unknown, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who has since then made himself a top 10 player), but he has said his forehand is off, he’s not hitting it deep enough.   And that, he says, is a matter of confidence.

Wayne Odesnik pleads guilty for importing HGH to Australia

If Wayne Odesnik had not been American (born in Johannesburg), I would have probably known almost nothing about him.  Odesnik is a lefty who likes to play on clay courts.  One of his best results in 2009 was making the final of Houston where he played Lleyton Hewitt.  Hewitt was on the mend trying to get his ranking up and decided he should play a challenger event and hope that he wouldn’t have to qualify for the Slams.  He met Odesnik in the finals of that.

Odesnik’s coach was one Guillermo Canas.  Canas recently announced his retirement.  It seems Canas had an interesting history too.  In 2005, Canas was banned for two years for allegedly doping.  He fought the allegations and was eventually allowed to return on tour.  He played his best at Indian Wells and Miami  in 2007 where he beat Roger Federer twice, including stopping a streak of 41 consecutive matches.  He reached the finals of Miami beating, guess who, Ivan Ljubicic in the semifinals, before losing to Novak Djokovic in the finals.

Andy Roddick has been the most vocal of those calling for Odesnik to be banned from the game.  He says Odesnik is cheating.  It would be interesting to see read how substances like HGH affect player performance especially in a skill game like tennis.

Nadal and Roddick Win 3rd Round Matches

Whatever mental issues Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are facing, they don’t seem to affect Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal.  Roddick may not be as young as Isner nor Querrey, but he still moves quite well, and he played unseeded Stakhovsky 6-2, 6-1.  Fellow American, John Isner, did not fare as well.  He pushed Juan Carlos Ferrero to three sets, but still lost, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.  Isner’s biggest hurdle is getting the quality of his groundstrokes up to the level of some of the better players on tour, and that may take a bit of effort.  He doesn’t move nearly as well as most players, but he does play big shots, and can make life tough for his opponents.

Just as Querrey needs to beat players like Chardy (who is a tough player) to be regarded as a regular top 20 threat, Isner needs to do the same.  At this point, Ferrero, being the higher seed, was expected to win the match.

David Nalbandian needed a wildcard to appear at Miami.  With injuries derailing his game much of last year and even parts of this year, no one quite knew how he’d fare against Nadal.  Unlike, say, Henin or Clijsters, it’s much harder for men to come back and play surprising tennis.  Even so Nalbandian did take a set from Nadal in a tiebreak, 10 points to 8, but then succumbed to too much Nadal in the 2nd and 3rd sets, 6-2 and 6-2, which may have been due to fitness.

Speaking of Chardy, he went out to hard serving, Nicolas Almagro in three sets, 6-2, 6-7(9), 6-3.  Fellow Spaniard, Tommy Robredo, who lost to Andy Roddick in Indian Wells, lost to German, Benjamin Becker, 1-6, 6-4, 7-6(1).

Thomaz Bellucci beat the guy that beat Murray, Olivier Rochus, 6-3, 6-4.

The remaining match of the day is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga playing Philipp Kohlschreiber.

Tomorrow, Fish plays Feliciano Lopez, Federer has an early match against Florent Serra, Fernando Gonzalez plays Juan Monaco, Verdasco plays veteran Melzer, Baghdatis plays Cilic.  Perhaps one of the most intriguing matches of the day is Wawrinka vs Youzhny in the battle of the one-handed backhands.  As of late, Youzhny has played better.

Nadal chose not to play doubles this week.  Marc Lopez chose to team up with Thomaz Bellucci, and actually won a doubles match (up until then, Lopez’s success hinged on teaming up with Nadal).

Murray Upset in 2nd round of Miami to Mardy Fish

The two were considered the next wave of good players.  After Nadal became the first serious challenge to Federer and after Federer’s years of dominance (in the mid 2000), Novak Djokovic leaped to 3rd in the world in 2007 and mostly stayed there until 2009.  Andy Murray moved from number 6 in the world in early 2008 to number 3 in the world.

The first two Masters 1000 of the year feature surfaces that are friendly to both Djokovic and Murray.  Djokovic suffered an early loss to eventual winner, Ivan Ljubicic, in Indian Wells.  With time to rest and prepare, he suffered an even more shocking loss to Olivier Rochus.  Meanwhile, Murray lost in the quarterfinals to Robin Soderling, a respectable loss.  At the very least, Soderling was ranked in the top 10.

However, today’s 6-4 6-4 loss was more inexplicable.  Sure, Mardy Fish has a big serve.  He once reached the final of Indian Wells beating Roger Federer en route.  However, his ranking has plummeted much like James Blake.  It’s not that either are bad players, but when you’re ranked around 20 in the world which Mardy Fish used to be, you’re still vulnerable to players trying to work their way up.  Often, such players have won maybe 1 title in a year, while playing close to 20, which means it’s hard to win titles, thus hard to maintain rankings.

Because Andy Murray was defending champ, he’ll lose quite a few points, and Rafael Nadal will regain the number 3 spot.  It seems, at this juncture, no one is trying to be number 1.  Instead players are losing early and letting those who perform less poorly move pass them.

Apparently, Murray took an early break, but then, despite having a 40-0 lead, was broken back.  Just like errors have been plaguing Djokovic, so Murray seems affected by such errors.  This was a complete 180 from how Murray was playing right before the Australian Open up through the Australian Open.  Since then, he’s moped around and played indifferent tennis.

Today saw pretty much every qualifier lose.  Wawrinka beat Kevin Anderson in straight sets.  Youzhny made easy work of Giraldo, 6-0, 6-1.  Gonzalez beat Lu, 6-4, 6-4.   Juan Monaco beat Ilhan, 6-2, 7-5.

Yesterday, Ivan Ljubicic retired after losing the first set to Benjamin Becker.  This wasn’t so surprising.  A Masters 1000 title requires 7 wins for those that aren’t seeded, and it’s typically only the top players that have the stamina to make it through a Slam, and even then, they often take a few weeks off after the Slam concludes to rest.

Tipsarevic lost fairly easily to Petzschner and Soderling won his 2nd round match in straight sets over Luczak.  Cilic, Baghdatis, Melzer, and Verdasco won in straight sets (all seeded players).  Montanes, seeded 26th, lost in three sets to Serra.

So these early losses leave players like Federer, Nadal, Roddick opportunities to take the second Masters 1000 before everyone heads to Europe to play on the clay.

The bad news is the limited Miami coverage.  The first few days of coverage were non-existent (although available overseas in some countries), then FSN took the weekend coverage.  Tennis Channel, despite being called “Tennis Channel”, is clearly too embarrassed to tell its viewing public that, no, they don’t carry every tennis event.  They really should say “Tennis Channel was unable to get a bid for Miami coverage until Monday.  We regret this.  If you have access to FSN, you may watch it there”.   Of course, they just pretend nothing is wrong, and just rebroadcast old matches.

While the rest of the tournament field moves forward, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic will have to do more re-evaluation to determine what has happened to their games.

Djokovic Upset by Rochus in 2nd round at Miami

Are we surprised anymore?  Djokovic seems like he’s taking the route of fellow Serbians, Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic.  Both Ivanovic and Jankovic were number 1 briefly.  Djokovic has never reached number 1, but he recently became number 2 at the Australian Open.  Djokovic was close enough to Rafael Nadal in rankings that when Rafa lost to Murray in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open (having won it the year before) and Djokovic got back to the quarters again (as he did the previous year), Djokovic’s point total didn’t change, but Nadal lost more than 1000 points.

Since then, Djokovic has done OK.  He lost in the semifinals of Rotterdam and defended his title in Dubai.  He then won both singles matches in Serbia on clay in Davis Cup.

By the time he rolled to Indian Wells, the question was whether Davis Cup had exhausted him.  John Isner had surprisingly pushed Djokovic to five sets, ultimately losing.   Djokovic came close to losing to Philipp Kohlschreiber having to save match points before scrapping out a win.  At the end, he was too tired to make his customary primary scream and one wondered how fatigue would affect him the rest of the way.

Turns out, by the next round, he was out, losing to Ivan Ljubicic.  True, Ljubicic eventually won it all, so maybe he was on a streak that would not be denied.  Even so, it felt like Djokovic was just not on top of his game.

So, it seemed odd for Novak Djokovic to go down to Olivier Rochus of Belgium.  Did this spell an odd spiral down for Djokovic, or does Djokovic, oddly enough, have a blind side for Rochus.  Is Rochus one of those players that happen to bother Djokovic even though, by all rights, he shouldn’t.  It turns out Olivier Rochus has a 2-1 record over Djokovic.  However, those 2 victories came in 2005, two years before Djokovic broke though.

The last time the two met was on grass in 2009 in Halle where Djokovic won 7-6, 6-4.  This is a tight match, but Djokovic ended up losing Halle to Tommy Haas and lost to him at Wimbledon.  The truth is probably somewhere in between.  Djokovic not quite playing his best and Rochus knowing he gives Djokovic a tough time.

Rochus wins: 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-4.

Two matches ended in retirement.  Kohlschreiber’s opponent, Florian Mayer, retired after almost one set.  Juan Carlos Ferrero defeated Daniel Koellerer after leading 4-0 and Koellerer retired.  Karlovic needed three sets to defeat Gimeno-Traver.  Almagro defeated Schwank in two tight sets.  Jeremy Chardy exacted a little revenge over Sam Querrey, who beat him in Indian Wells, by taking him down in 3 sets, 6-2 in the third.

Temperatures are not too bad.  It is 80F (26 C) with 80% humidity in Miami.